Article: Twins Trade Nolasco, Meyer, Cash To Angels For Hector Santiago

[Mike Sixel]

 

You mean besides Trevor May?

How about we reach down to AA for the #5 SP?

 

Fair, I'd like May to be a SP.....so that's 1.

 

I don't think any AA starter will be starting for the Twins in April of next year......or May of next year, nor June of next year. After that, maybe.

 

It is also possible Meija is ready early next year (which let's hope he is, as SPs get hurt a lot.....).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Highly Unlikely.  He has been healthy all year and is only averaging about 5.5IP/game.  To hit 200 innings he would have to average 7IP/game the rest of the year.

Yup.  If Nolasco keeps his current 2016 IP/GS average (which at almost 6 isn't bad), he will finish with 190 IP this year.  Meaning he'd have to basically hit his career high in IP in 2017 (212) to make that a player option.

 

Of course, if he is effective enough to get anywhere near 212 innings next year, or to average 7 IP per start down the stretch this year to get to 200, there is a decent chance the Angels would want him back for 2018 at $13 mil.  Still, it shouldn't be hard to keep it a team option regardless.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, it is relevant in any contemplated trades of proven major leaguers (for flyers like Mejia), to put much more thought into the process for developing young SP arms to reach their ceiling as quickly and efficiently as possible (the Twins have a sad history of too many talented guys who waste their best bullets while in their mid-20s in the minors)

 

Hey, we agree, they messed up in how they used Meyer.....but the question is, on August 1, what should they do with the players they have? Me? I think what they did do worked.

 

I think Santiago pitches really well here, or is not on the roster next year, and Meija (sp?) is your 5th starter, or some flyer FA. And while that 9MM or whatever doesn't help us, if I'm the owner, I appreciate that 9MM.....

[jokin]

 

Fair, I'd like May to be a SP.....so that's 1.

 

I don't think any AA starter will be starting for the Twins in April of next year......or May of next year, nor June of next year. After that, maybe.

 

It is also possible Meija is ready early next year (which let's hope he is, as SPs get hurt a lot.....).

 

Very likely on the AA guys. I do fear that with the Twins might be relying on Mejia coming through and supplanting May from one of the 5 SP spots. There's enough concern about Mejia, both externally and internally (after the Twins "develop" him- anyone remember Deolis Guerra?), that it would be foolish to count on him, at least initially.

 

If May is the #4 SP and Santiago the #5 SP, (with [current] AA help on the way by the '17 ASG and Duffey/Wheeler a phone call away, I think I could live with that...)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Very likely on the AA guys. I do fear that with the Twins might be relying on Mejia coming through and supplanting May from one of the 5 SP spots. There's enough concern about Mejia, both externally and internally (after the Twins "develop" him- anyone remember Deolis Guerra?), that it would be foolish to count on him, at least initially.

 

If May is the #4 SP and Santiago the #5 SP, (with [current] AA help on the way by the '17 ASG and Duffey/Wheeler a phone call away, I think I could live with that...)

 

I think that is the plan, right now........but who knows?

[jokin]

 

 

Yup.  If Nolasco keeps his current 2016 IP/GS average (which at almost 6 isn't bad), he will finish with 190 IP this year.  Meaning he'd have to basically hit his career high in IP in 2017 (212) to make that a player option.

 

Of course, if he is effective enough to get anywhere near 212 innings next year, or to average 7 IP per start down the stretch this year to get to 200, there is a decent chance the Angels would want him back for 2018 at $13 mil.  Still, it shouldn't be hard to keep it a team option regardless.

 

And that was my point... as stated previously, Nolasco has averaged ~7 IP/start in his last 4 games. Nolasco is returning home and in a contract year, and the Angels have the payroll available, and might benefit from playing in Anaheim. 400 IP is certainly within the realm of possibility.

[Squirrel]

 

Hey, we agree, they messed up in how they used Meyer.....but the question is, on August 1, what should they do with the players they have? Me? I think what they did do worked.

 

I think Santiago pitches really well here, or is not on the roster next year, and Meija (sp?) is your 5th starter, or some flyer FA. And while that 9MM or whatever doesn't help us, if I'm the owner, I appreciate that 9MM.....

This. Let's please keep it in the realm and intent of this topic. Feel free to start another if you want to discuss Meyer and how the Twins develop pitchers.

 

 

[jokin]

 

 

I think that is the plan, right now........but who knows?

 

Not sure what their thoughts are on May. But I do know that this shifting of his roles hasn't been good for his pitching and mental health or his development as an effective major league starter. (I would bet that he's still confused to this day as to why he was placed in purgatory for a month last July 1- when he was arguably the Twins 2nd best SP)

[jokin]

 

 

This. Let's please keep it in the realm and intent of this topic. Feel free to start another if you want to discuss Meyer and how the Twins develop pitchers.

 

"Article: Twins Trade Nolasco, Meyer, Cash To Angels For Hector Santiago"

[Squirrel]

 

"Article: Twins Trade Nolasco, Meyer, Cash To Angels For Hector Santiago"

And his development is a tangent, yes, but a tangent and not the focus of the article. Keep to topic and quit hammering this as you have done for the past 2-3 years in any thread and every thread you can. Mike is right ... how does this trade impact us going forward ... it's about the TRADE ... not his development.

[tobi0040]

I'm pretty certain that Boras eased their concerns on that issue. (Scott's going to get his big payday on Meyer yet...)

I would not completely rule it out but I would guess he has 4-5 more years of control. I will take the under that he is both healthy and productive in 4-5 years.

[kab21]

Actually the Twins do lack #5 pitchers. The rotation depth at the MLB level and in AA/AAA is that bad. 

 

 

But Santiago has performed better than a #5 pitcher.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Actually the Twins do lack #5 pitchers. The rotation depth at the MLB level and in AA/AAA is that bad. 

 

 

But Santiago has performed better than a #5 pitcher.

 

Agreed. On both counts.

[kab21]

 

I'm not arguing the point... I'm just wondering if Santiago is actually an upgrade... the numbers don't necessarily suggest that.

Are you kidding? Santiago's ERA is a full run better over his career and more than a full run better in recent seasons.

[Mike Sixel]

Another look at it:

 

 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/twins-and-angels-swap-throwers-meyer-and-busenitz/

 

[jokin]

 

Are you kidding? Santiago's ERA is a full run better over his career and more than a full run better in recent seasons.

 

Hmmm. I'm not a fan of Nolasco, and as I've previously stated many times, it's a great trade to unload that contract that never should have been signed in the first place. Just saying that Santiago is far from a panacea...

 

Santiago career numbers as a SP: FIP- 4.64 xFIP 4.83

 

Nolasco career numbers as a SP: FIP- 3.85 xFIP- 3.83

 

Santiago over recent seasons has been playing for a team in the Top Quintile for team defense.

 

Nolasco over recent seasons has been playing for a team in the Bottom Quintile for team defense.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Another look at it:

 

 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/twins-and-angels-swap-throwers-meyer-and-busenitz/

Finally, a neutral look at the prospects involved. 

[jokin]

 

 

Actually the Twins do lack #5 pitchers. The rotation depth at the MLB level and in AA/AAA is that bad. 

 

 

But Santiago has performed better than a #5 pitcher.

 

Let's hope that this continues moving forward. There is evidence there to present caution in making any presumptions. I do hope the Twins have learned from the recent past not to do a Hughes-like extension if his production produces clues that it will be suspect going forward.

[Willihammer]

Actually the Twins do lack #5 pitchers. The rotation depth at the MLB level and in AA/AAA is that bad. 

 

 

But Santiago has performed better than a #5 pitcher.

He has been, in terms of actual runs allowed. By ERA he's a #3 (I'm looking at the 152 starters who have thrown at least 200 IP since 2014).

By xFIP he's 4th from last, a fringy #5. Pretty interesting trade really, a chronic xFIP underperformer for an overperformer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And that was my point... as stated previously, Nolasco has averaged ~7 IP/start in his last 4 games. Nolasco is returning home and in a contract year, and the Angels have the payroll available, and might benefit from playing in Anaheim. 400 IP is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Sure it's possible, if Nolasco pitches fantastically.  I'm not sure it really matters at that point, though -- the Angels would probably want him back at that price in 2018 if he pitches fantastically for them.  And Nolasco would probably rather hit the open market after 2017 instead.  I don't see a case where the Angels get locked into 2018 with Nolasco against their will.  Far more likely, Nolasco could get locked into 2018 with the Angels mildly against his will, if he pitches well for them but doesn't quite make 400 IP.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He has been, in terms of actual runs allowed. By ERA he's a #3 (I'm looking at the 152 starters who have thrown at least 200 IP since 2014).
By xFIP he's 4th from last, a fringy #5. Pretty interesting trade really, a chronic xFIP underperformer for an overperformer.

I'd probably put Santiago as more of a #4 by performance, even with his solid ERA, just because he doesn't throw that many innings.  But yeah, it's an interesting swap.

[jokin]

 

Sure it's possible, if Nolasco pitches fantastically.  I'm not sure it really matters at that point, though -- the Angels would probably want him back at that price in 2018 if he pitches fantastically for them.  And Nolasco would probably rather hit the open market after 2017 instead.  I don't see a case where the Angels get locked into 2018 with Nolasco against their will.  Far more likely, Nolasco could get locked into 2018 with the Angels mildly against his will, if he pitches well for them but doesn't quite make 400 IP.

 

Agreed on all points. I just originally said it was within the realm of possibility... and why it was yet another reason why this was a good trade for the Twins in not having another potential liability overhanging such a bad trade in the first place.

Edited August 2, 2016 by jokin

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sure it's possible, if Nolasco pitches fantastically.  I'm not sure it really matters at that point, though -- the Angels would probably want him back at that price in 2018 if he pitches fantastically for them.  And Nolasco would probably rather hit the open market after 2017 instead.  I don't see a case where the Angels get locked into 2018 with Nolasco against their will.  Far more likely, Nolasco could get locked into 2018 with the Angels mildly against his will, if he pitches well for them but doesn't quite make 400 IP.

Nolasco grew up in LA and seems like an LA kind of guy. I don't think it's possible for him to be pitching there against his will. Best of luck to him - I doubt the smile has left his face yet.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

How to tell if this is a good trade or bad trade:

 

A week ago, if someone had suggested Antony should package Nolasco and Meyer for a potential mid rotation starter, would you have taken that seriously?

[FormerMinnasotan]

Nice trade. I know I don't want to jump to any conclusions or simply give Antony the job but he has made some good trades and this one I feel is great. Giving up Nolasco and Meyer for a solid proven MLB starter in Santiago is a great trade. Heck moving Nolasco for an even better pitcher is a feat in and of its self.

[tobi0040]

He has been, in terms of actual runs allowed. By ERA he's a #3 (I'm looking at the 152 starters who have thrown at least 200 IP since 2014).

By xFIP he's 4th from last, a fringy #5. Pretty interesting trade really, a chronic xFIP underperformer for an overperformer.

Yeah. Interesting. Some analysis below.

 

The nice part is the flexibility. A new GM can analyze Santiago and if he fits in 2017. If not, he is non tendered or traded and we found someone to pay Nolasco about $8m next year

 

The really odd thing about this is I think a majority of us would be happy in reverse. Had the Twins ate some salary and moved a back of the rotation starter in order to take a flier on a potential front of the rotation guy we may be intrigued. I think it speaks to us watching Ricky for 50 plus starts and drip by drip over two years lose hope in Meyer. Angels fans haven't endured either of those.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.halosheaven.com/platform/amp/2016/8/1/12348720/breaking-down-the-hector-santiago-trade?client=safari

Edited August 2, 2016 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

Looking more into this xFIP-ERA P Alan Busenitz-

since 2014 Angels starters have outperformed xFIP by .29 runs/game.

 

Weaver, Santiago, Tropeano, and Heaney have outperformed the most. Interestingly they are all fly ball guys.

Richards has also outperformed it being an extreme ground ball guy. Shoemaker being a 50/50 guy, has matched his ERA to his xFIP.

 

Since 2014 Twins starters have underperformed xFIP by .54 runs/game.

May (+1.52, 40.6% FB),

Nolasco (+1.21, 36.4% FB)

Duffey (+1.08, 28.6% FB)

Hughes (+.34, 40.4% FB)

Santana (-.56 runs/9. 36.7% FB)

 

Since 2014 the Angels have had the 3rd best defense, the Twins the 3rd worst. Roughly 100-150 runs separated them.

Actually between 2006-2013 the Marlins defense was pretty bad too, 4th worst.

 

Safe to say that a significant portion of Ricky's xFIP-ERA underperformance is defense-related IMO.

Edited August 2, 2016 by Willihammer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How to tell if this is a good trade or bad trade:

A week ago, if someone had suggested Antony should package Nolasco and Meyer for a potential mid rotation starter, would you have taken that seriously?

I think it's a fair deal, but "potential mid rotation starter" is probably a little too vague to be useful.  Was Tommy Milone a "potential mid rotation starter" this past winter?  Evidence suggests he and Santiago aren't too different in terms of performance.  Packaging Nolasco and Meyer for a slightly more expensive Milone with less team control sounds a little less nice than your phrasing!

[Vanimal46]

Santiago could be dreadful for all I know. I will still appreciate watching him pitch over Ricky Nolasco any day of the week. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Since 2014 the Angels have had the 3rd best defense, the Twins the 3rd worst. Roughly 100-150 runs separated them.
Actually between 2006-2013 the Marlins defense was pretty bad too, 4th worst.

Safe to say that a significant portion of Ricky's xFIP-ERA underperformance is defense-related IMO.

Not sure where you get 150 in that range.  I see a 107 run difference since the start of 2014 by both DRS and UZR:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

 

Nolasco has pitched 8.4% of the Twins innings since 2014.  His proportional share of the DRS/UZR deficit would be about 9 runs.  That would drop his Twins ERA from 5.44 to 5.19.  His Twins FIP is 4.20.

 

I don't think your conclusion is "safe" at all.

Edited August 2, 2016 by spycake