Article: Twins Trade Nolasco, Meyer, Cash To Angels For Hector Santiago

[Mike Sixel]

If Meyer comes back fast, and is great fast...then I have to wonder about the Twins' minor and major league coaching. If takes 2-3 years, or never happens, well, then whatevs.*

 

*yes, I posted whatevs, sue me

[Vanimal46]

 

well, then whatevs.*

 

*yes, I posted whatevs, sue me

You surprise me every day, Mike. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The accolades come from:

 

1. Freeing Nolasco

2. Cost savings on Santiago let loose after 2016

3. Going along with the idea that Meyer might have chronic shoulder problems

 

If neither of the last two end up true, then any love for this trade needs to be reconsidered.

I don't know, even if #3 winds up true, it's not like #1 and #2 are some fantastic benefit. I did the math upthread, and it seemed like Nolasco's and Meyer's combined absolute market value was probably around $8 mil.

 

So it's not an unreasonable trade from our perspective, but I don't get the accolades either. I'd easily rank it behind our Nunez and Abad deals.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Meyer comes back fast, and is great fast...then I have to wonder about the Twins' minor and major league coaching. If takes 2-3 years, or never happens, well, then whatevs.*

 

*yes, I posted whatevs, sue me

Well, it is just one data point, and we already have others that cause us to wonder about our coaching staffs. Which is why I may have preferred the long view and reassessed these assets in the winter (barring surgery for Meyer, both he and Nolasco were unlikely to lose value in the next few months).

 

If I were the Angels, I might take a 2 year view of Meyer right now. True, he will likely be out of minor league options in spring 2018, but they could easily approach Meyer 2018 like we have done Tonkin 2016 or various Rule 5 picks, if necessary.

[Kwak]

 

The Twins showed how much they care about defense when they put Sano in the OF.

 

Or Santana anywhere...

The Twins showed their "I care about defense" when they moved Sano to 3B too!

[TheLeviathan]

 

In the universe of baseball prospects, Meyer is nowhere the leaders in hype/production differential. He obviously wasn't perfect, but Meyer really did produce through 2014. And he hasn't really failed on the field yet outside 8 starts at AAA in 2015, sandwiched around much better results at the same level.

No guarantee they would get him on the right track, but Meyer is absolutely someone I wanted a new front office (and potentially new field staff, etc.) to be able to evaluate through 2017, more so than giving the new front office an $8 mil option for 2017 on Hector Santiago.

 

2014 was two seasons ago.  He's yet to do anything but stink in AAA and this is his third year.  He's 27.

 

At some point throwing a fastball hard is not enough. 

[jimmer]

 

2014 was two seasons ago.  He's yet to do anything but stink in AAA and this is his third year.  He's 27.

 

At some point throwing a fastball hard is not enough. 

3 years in a row he was in the pre-season top 100 prospects then fell completely off this year.

[old nurse]

 

3 years in a row he was in the pre-season top 100 prospects then fell completely off this year.

The rate for pitchers ranked outside the top 10  having a WAR leas than 3 over their first 6 years is over 40%   That he was rated as a top 100 prospect really doesn't mean much.

[TheLeviathan]

 

3 years in a row he was in the pre-season top 100 prospects then fell completely off this year.

 

Yeah and I've held on tight to the hope that he'd eventually pan out, but this just not the kind of guy that I'd target from another organization.  He's too old and there isn't enough track record of success.  Plus the medical issues.

 

Meyer hasn't even played well enough to be called a AAAA player.

[jimmer]

 

The rate for pitchers ranked outside the top 10  having a WAR leas than 3 over their first 6 years is over 40%   That he was rated as a top 100 prospect really doesn't mean much.

If you want to think going from a 20-50 ish prospect two years in a row to out of the top 100 is no big deal, that's completely your choice.

Edited August 15, 2016 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

Yeah and I've held on tight to the hope that he'd eventually pan out, but this just not the kind of guy that I'd target from another organization.  He's too old and there isn't enough track record of success.  Plus the medical issues.

 

Meyer hasn't even played well enough to be called a AAAA player.

at this point, he's nothing more than a project.

[Otto von Ballpark]

2014 was two seasons ago. He's yet to do anything but stink in AAA and this is his third year. He's 27.

 

At some point throwing a fastball hard is not enough.

2014 he was pretty good in AAA, his first go-around there. I think he was among the league's top starters that year, appeared in the Futures Game, etc.

 

His first pro struggles came when he tried to repeat the level in 2015, which suggests maybe it was just a bad adjustment they had him make, to ease the shoulder concerns?

 

I don't pretend he is some great bet anymore, but I think we Twins fans are letting our frustration color our perception of him a bit. (Much like how many posters exaggerated the depths of Nolasco's value too.)

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't pretend he is some great bet anymore, but I think we Twins fans are letting our frustration color our perception of him a bit. (Much like how many posters exaggerated the depths of Nolasco's value too.)

 

I'm letting the reality of him being 27, with an ok career minor league track record, and a history of shoulder issues color my opinion.

 

I hope he makes a good teacher.  Seems like that was something he was passionate about.

[Danchat]

 

2014 he was pretty good in AAA, his first go-around there. I think he was among the league's top starters that year, appeared in the Futures Game, etc.

His first pro struggles came when he tried to repeat the level in 2015, which suggests maybe it was just a bad adjustment they had him make, to ease the shoulder concerns?

I don't pretend he is some great bet anymore, but I think we Twins fans are letting our frustration color our perception of him a bit. (Much like how many posters exaggerated the depths of Nolasco's value too.)

You're right, I remember calling for the Twins to promote Meyer during 2014. He was pitching well and that's what was creating some excitement [even here at Twins Daily]. But then 2015 happened and the excitement disappeared.

[Deduno Abides]

Yeah and I've held on tight to the hope that he'd eventually pan out, but this just not the kind of guy that I'd target from another organization.  He's too old and there isn't enough track record of success.  Plus the medical issues.

 

Meyer hasn't even played well enough to be called a AAAA player.

Go slow on the "too old." He'll be 27 in January. In 2014, the Giants won the WS with Madison Bumgarner and a bunch of cast-offs, the youngest of whom was 29. The talent is still there; if a different set of coaches helps him succeed, this trade will look as bad as Hardy for Hoey. Nolasco for Santiago straight up, with small salary relief, is not good. If Meyer takes off, then . . .

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm letting the reality of him being 27, with an ok career minor league track record, and a history of shoulder issues color my opinion.

 

I hope he makes a good teacher. Seems like that was something he was passionate about.

The reality of him being 27? He's still 26. And your earlier post seemed confused about what level he pitched at in 2014. See what I mean about perhaps viewing the situation through an overly pessimistic lens?

 

As much as you want to imply that Meyer is a baseball afterthought and we should all move on to discussing his post-baseball teaching career, all the evidence we have suggests he is still worth several million dollars in value to MLB teams as a potential baseball playing asset. Let's just let it play out and wish him the best.

[jimmer]

I think he meant he likely won't be in the majors this year so the next season he'd be 27, but semantics is a fun game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think he meant he likely won't be in the majors this year so the next season he'd be 27, but semantics is a fun game.

I genuinely didn't know what he was trying to say. He already was mistaken about Meyer's AAA experience, so it didn't seem out of character to be mistaken about his age. I'll drop it for now, we have hashed all this out before.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I genuinely didn't know what he was trying to say. He already was mistaken about Meyer's AAA experience, so it didn't seem out of character to be mistaken about his age. I'll drop it for now, we have hashed all this out before.

 

You keep arguing "let the new regime work with him" - yes?

 

How old will he be, at the absolute soonest, when such fruits would bear?

 

Right.  So 27.  And that's if you're on some kind of really powerful stuff and think it's going to do a complete 180 in the next calendar year.  

 

I don't care what level he was at several years ago, his track record is one littered with "meh" results and lots of injuries.  He's a 27 year old.  He hasn't even demonstrated the ability to master AAA.  Or master the ability to pitch an entire season.  

 

I'm not looking at him with frustration.  I'm looking at him with resignation and acceptance.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

"Meh" results? Pre-2015, his entire pro career was pretty darn good in terms of results. He wasn't an elite prospect, but consistent double digit K/9 rates at most every rung of the minor league ladder from a SP prospect is hardly "meh."

 

Obviously the odds are stacked against any prospect, and even moreso Meyer given the past 2 years, but I just don't see the upside in an org like the current Twins essentially selling Meyer for a few million cash, especially if that cash is nominally earmarked for Hector Santiago.

 

It is not as bad as dealing Hardy for Hoey as another poster suggested, but it has a similar feeling of just dumping an asset for the sake of dumping it because you're not sure what else to do with it. It likely won't burn the Twins in this specific instance, but it seems like a suboptimal way to run an MLB club.

Edited August 16, 2016 by spycake

[PseudoSABR]

 

 it seemed like Nolasco's and Meyer's combined absolute market value was probably around $8 mil.

ಠ_ಠ  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

ಠ_ಠ  

[ashbury]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

 

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