Article: Twins Trade Nolasco, Meyer, Cash To Angels For Hector Santiago

[ashbury]

Santiago and Milone get there from different ways, but it seems they are both modestly effective left-handers who aren't that valuable around the league, for whatever reason.

I don't think that's the right way to look at Santiago. He wasn't acquired IMO particularly for his talent, which I think we all agree is so-so.

 

He was acquired (or at least that's what I would have done) because you can get out from under his contract if you want to. If we keep him in 2017, then yes, the salary relief versus Nolasco is negligible; but if either we trade him in the coming off-season for a minor prospect, or else simply non-tender him, we have the approximately $9M he would get in arbitration to reapply to other purposes. That is not a choice the team had, with Nolasco.

 

We're paying Nolasco's salary the rest of this year, and $4M of it next year, so it's not as much salary relief as a straight swap would have given. But it's something.

 

Obtaining this flexibility is what costs us Meyer. Busenitz is a throw-in to disguise what's going on for the average fan who follows trades - nobody enjoys trades that are motivated mainly by money.

 

You don't fix a sclerotic roster in a single trade. But with a series of moves that carry out a consistent vision, it can be accomplished over time, probably half a year. By spring training next year we'll have a better idea whether this trade was part of a strategy or just another random move.

 

I'm not a clairvoyant so I don't know if that's what Antony has in mind. OTOH, it might not matter what Antony intends. If we get a new GM, this trade has improved the flexibility for whoever sits in the big chair, and that person might want to thank Antony.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Highly Unlikely.  He has been healthy all year and is only averaging about 5.5IP/game.  To hit 200 innings he would have to average 7IP/game the rest of the year.

 

And that doesn't even include the fact that teams can just not pitch him this year and/or next year to make sure he doesn't make it to 400 IP. Or the fact that he's been oft-injured the past few years.

[tobi0040]

And that doesn't even include the fact that teams can just not pitch him this year and/or next year to make sure he doesn't make it to 400 IP. Or the fact that he's been oft-injured the past few years.

That is the bigger one. If he is throwing up a mid 5.00 ERA, another team isn't going to give him the leash that he had here.

 

We kept throwing him out there because of his salary. The Angels paid Hamilton $63m to play somewhere else. I don't think that $12m is going to buy him reps there.

[tobi0040]

I don't think that's the right way to look at Santiago. He wasn't acquired IMO particularly for his talent, which I think we all agree is so-so.

 

He was acquired (or at least that's what I would have done) because you can get out from under his contract if you want to. If we keep him in 2017, then yes, the salary relief versus Nolasco is negligible; but if either we trade him in the coming off-season for a minor prospect, or else simply non-tender him, we have the approximately $9M he would get in arbitration to reapply to other purposes. That is not a choice the team had, with Nolasco.

 

We're paying Nolasco's salary the rest of this year, and $4M of it next year, so it's not as much salary relief as a straight swap would have given. But it's something.

 

Obtaining this flexibility is what costs us Meyer. Busenitz is a throw-in to disguise what's going on for the average fan who follows trades - nobody likes trades that are motivated by money.

 

I'm not a mind reader so I don't know if that's what Antony has in mind. OTOH, it might not matter what Antony intends, if we get a new GM; this trade has improved the flexibility for whoever sits in the big chair.

 

You don't fix a sclerotic roster in a single trade, but with a series of moves that carry out a vision it can be accomplished over time.

Yeah, Santiago was a creative way to get out from the Nolasco deal, because we could non-tender Santiago. I have a tough time seeing though how he isn't one of our best five starters next April though and at 1-8 or so I think he is here.

 

On another note, Powers had a funny article about the Nolasco deal. Basically said picking up salary on a guy like Nolasco is a pretty rare move for the Twins. But here was my favorite quote:

 

"The two new fellows could get run over by a bus while reporting to the Twins and the trade still would be considered an unqualified success"

[jokin]

 

Highly Unlikely.  He has been healthy all year and is only averaging about 5.5IP/game.  To hit 200 innings he would have to average 7IP/game the rest of the year.

 
Viola!.... Nolasco has averaged ~7IP/game over his last 4 starts. (It's amazing what the body can do with a "little extra motivation" from pitching in a contract expiration/optionable year, plus your teammates, managers, coaches, agent and an ex-wife or two can do for your innings production)

[kab21]

I have seen this mentioned a few times but the other way (aside from Meyer defying all odds and being awesome) that the Twins lose this trade is by giving Santiago an extension.

PLEASE NO!

 

He is a solid pitcher that prevents the Twins from going out and giving a FA big money.

[tobi0040]

 

 

He is a solid pitcher that prevents the Twins from going out and giving a FA big money.

That is an interesting take.

Looks like next years rotation is taking form, Ervin, Santiago, Berrios, and Gibson.

[jorgenswest]

Santiago has performed significantly better than his FIP over his career. The opposite is true of Nolasco. 

 

It comes down to performance with runners on base. Nolasco's performance drops with runners on base over his career. Santiago has actually pitched much better over his career with runners on base. Is it luck? Maybe. They both have significant PAs against over their careers.

 

Target Field may not be kind to Santiago though. He led the league in home runs given up last year. He moves from Angel Stadium which suppresses home runs from right handed batters to Target Field where right handed batters hit home runs above the league average. I used 2013-2015 as the sample for the parks but Angel Stadium has been a more difficult place for right handers to hit home runs than Target Field each year since Target Field's opening in 2010.

[jokin]

 

 

That is the bigger one. If he is throwing up a mid 5.00 ERA, another team isn't going to give him the leash that he had here.

We kept throwing him out there because of his salary. The Angels paid Hamilton $63m to play somewhere else. I don't think that $12m is going to buy him reps there.

 

And yet they were trotting out Hector Santiago every 5 days- and he averages 1/2 an inning less per outing than Nolasco (5.45 IP/game vs. Nolasco's 5.94 IP/game) and of course, Santiago has nearly a one-run per game higher FIP than Nolasco.

[jokin]

 

 

I have seen this mentioned a few times but the other way (aside from Meyer defying all odds and being awesome) that the Twins lose this trade is by giving Santiago an extension.

PLEASE NO!

 

He is a solid pitcher that prevents the Twins from going out and giving a FA big money.

 

Presumably, since Ryan is no longer part of the equation, the days of granting extensions based on the "loyal soldier " theory are over.

[kab21]

 

And yet they were trotting out Hector Santiago every 5 days- and he averages 1/2 an inning less per outing than Nolasco (5.45 IP/game vs. Nolasco's 5.94 IP/game) and of course, Santiago has nearly a one-run per game higher FIP than Nolasco.

FIP, xFIP and other advanced stats are useful but this is a gross misuse of them. There is a very significant sample size that says Nolasco performs worse than his FIP and that Santiago performs better.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And yet they were trotting out Hector Santiago every 5 days- and he averages 1/2 an inning less per outing than Nolasco (5.45 IP/game vs. Nolasco's 5.94 IP/game) and of course, Santiago has nearly a one-run per game higher FIP than Nolasco.

 

After years, though......some pitchers clearly outperform their FIP, and some underperform.......FIP isn't like gravity or sunshine.........

 

I cannot understand how anyone can look at this trade, and not think, wow, Antony got rid of Nolasco, and got something back in return.....

[alarp33]

 

I cannot understand how anyone can look at this trade, and not think, wow, Antony got rid of Nolasco, and got something back in return.....

 

Because he gave up Meyer to get something back.  

 

I think it's likely Santiago performs better than Nolasco (not a high bar to clear), but lets not act like Nolasco brought back Santiago.. Meyer did

[jimmer]

I have absolutely no problems at all with giving up Meyer.

[jokin]

 

 

Santiago has performed significantly better than his FIP over his career. The opposite is true of Nolasco. 

 

It comes down to performance with runners on base. Nolasco's performance drops with runners on base over his career. Santiago has actually pitched much better over his career with runners on base. Is it luck? Maybe. They both have significant PAs against over their careers.

 

Target Field may not be kind to Santiago though. He led the league in home runs given up last year. He moves from Angel Stadium which suppresses home runs from right handed batters to Target Field where right handed batters hit home runs above the league average. I used 2013-2015 as the sample for the parks but Angel Stadium has been a more difficult place for right handers to hit home runs than Target Field each year since Target Field's opening in 2010.

 

Yep. I'm thinking Santiago shouldn't be doing a lot of house-hunting in the Twins Cities- the Twins are looking for guys who can go deeper into games to keep the pen from being overworked- Santiago over his career has averaged ~5 1/3 IP/gm as a starting pitcher.

[alarp33]

 

I have absolutely no problems at all with giving up Meyer.

 

I don't have a huge issue with giving up Meyer either, but this team doesn't lack #5 starters so I'm not sure why Santiago was a need

[jokin]

 

 

FIP, xFIP and other advanced stats are useful but this is a gross misuse of them. There is a very significant sample size that says Nolasco performs worse than his FIP and that Santiago performs better.

 

I'm not arguing the point... I'm just wondering if Santiago is actually an upgrade... the numbers don't necessarily suggest that.

[jokin]

 

 

I don't have a huge issue with giving up Meyer either, but this team doesn't lack #5 starters so I'm not sure why Santiago was a need

 

Thi$

      Thi$

            Thi$

Edited August 2, 2016 by jokin

[olivia11]

2017 opening day rotation: 

Ervin Santana

Jose Berrios

Hector Santiago

Kyle Gibson

(Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Adalberto Mejia)

 

 

Now let's DFA/waiver trade Tommy Milone so we can use his spot to give other potential options an early tryout for the 2017 rotation.   Try Wheeler right now while we stretch out May and fix Duffey.  Bring Mejia up after he strings together 5 or so good starts in Rochester.   Give Duffey another chance after working things out in the bullpen.  Let's see how May responds to converting back into a starter. 

 

(Not that everything should be based on the last few months) but ideally a couple of them pitch well for the rest of the season - or we at least learn something to help us better evaluate our pitching staff.  Maybe we can look to move Santana, Santiago or Gibson this offseason to strengthen our pitching depth.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because he gave up Meyer to get something back.  

 

I think it's likely Santiago performs better than Nolasco (not a high bar to clear), but lets not act like Nolasco brought back Santiago.. Meyer did

 

About half the posts don't mention Meyer.....they rip on Santiago.......

 

I loved Meyer....but he's pitched a combined, what, 100 innings or so the last two years, maybe? He's not young, he's super tall, and the Twins had clearly soured on him. I would imagine he had to be on the 25 man roster next year.........would you keep him on the 25 man roster next year?

[jokin]

 

 

After years, though......some pitchers clearly outperform their FIP, and some underperform.......FIP isn't like gravity or sunshine.........

 

I cannot understand how anyone can look at this trade, and not think, wow, Antony got rid of Nolasco, and got something back in return.....

 

Again, not arguing the point. (My Santiago reference was more towards his history of shorter outings and the Angels willingness in giving Nolasco the ball every 5 days and the likelihood of him hitting 400 IP over 2016 and '17).

 

Getting rid of Nolasco was the prime objective at the deadline, Antony accomplished that objective... and paid the going rate in ridding himself of that awful contract. And Boras extracted his pound of flesh as part of that equation.

Edited August 2, 2016 by jokin

[jokin]

 

 

About half the posts don't mention Meyer.....they rip on Santiago.......

 

I loved Meyer....but he's pitched a combined, what, 100 innings or so the last two years, maybe? He's not young, he's super tall, and the Twins had clearly soured on him. I would imagine he had to be on the 25 man roster next year.........would you keep him on the 25 man roster next year?

 

All of these points are accurate. The better question is why didn't Ryan have a better understanding of Meyer's nature and a more reliable developmental plan for his showcase and rebuild-defining trade of his second tenure with the Twins?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thi$

      Thi$

            Thi$

 

I'm curious.....who do you think in AAA or the MLB roster is better than Santiago, based on outcomes?

 

Santana

Gibson

Berrios

????

 

Duffey? Milone? Dean? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

All of these points are accurate. The better question is why didn't Ryan have a better understanding of Meyer's nature and a more reliable developmental plan for his showcase and rebuild-defining trade of his second tenure with the Twins?

 

That's a good question, and one that some people raised after the trade was made.....but is not relevant to "what should the Twins do now?". 

[alarp33]

 

About half the posts don't mention Meyer.....they rip on Santiago.......

 

I loved Meyer....but he's pitched a combined, what, 100 innings or so the last two years, maybe? He's not young, he's super tall, and the Twins had clearly soured on him. I would imagine he had to be on the 25 man roster next year.........would you keep him on the 25 man roster next year?

 

I didn't buy into the Meyer as a starter steam that started up again with a few good starts this April.  But yeah, I imagined him as one of the better bullpen options next Spring.  

 

Who knows about the Shoulder, if the Angels were comfortable with it I imagine the injury isn't too bad.  

[jokin]

 

 

I'm curious.....who do you think in AAA or the MLB roster is better than Santiago, based on outcomes?

 

Santana

Gibson

Berrios

????

 

Duffey? Milone? Dean? 

 

 

You mean besides Trevor May?

How about we reach down to AA for the #5 SP?

[jokin]

 

 

That's a good question, and one that some people raised after the trade was made.....but is not relevant to "what should the Twins do now?". 

 

Well, it is relevant in any contemplated trades of proven major leaguers (for flyers like Mejia), to put much more thought into the process for developing young SP arms to reach their ceiling as quickly and efficiently as possible (the Twins have a sad history of too many talented guys who waste their best bullets while in their mid-20s in the minors)

Edited August 2, 2016 by jokin

[Kwak]

 

I don't have a huge issue with giving up Meyer either, but this team doesn't lack #5 starters so I'm not sure why Santiago was a need

Because several of those that you identified as #5 starters--are actually more like #10! (inside joke for the >60 crowd).

[jokin]

 

I didn't buy into the Meyer as a starter steam that started up again with a few good starts this April.  But yeah, I imagined him as one of the better bullpen options next Spring.  

 

Who knows about the Shoulder, if the Angels were comfortable with it I imagine the injury isn't too bad.  

 

I'm pretty certain that Boras eased their concerns on that issue. (Scott's going to get his big payday on Meyer yet...)

[Kwak]

 

Yep. I'm thinking Santiago shouldn't be doing a lot of house-hunting in the Twins Cities- the Twins are looking for guys who can go deeper into games to keep the pen from being overworked- Santiago over his career has averaged ~5 1/3 IP/gm as a starting pitcher.

 

 

You mean besides Trevor May?

How about we reach down to AA for the #5 SP?

 

An average of 5.33 innings per start--why you just defined Trevor May!