Article: Rebuilding The Rotation

[Nick Nelson]

Rob Antony's first big move was a tough one to criticize. The interim general manager flipped Eduardo Nunez at peak value and got back an impressive pitching prospect in return.

 

It's not clear that Antony will remain in the GM's chair long-term, but he's operating with an acute focus on the organization's No. 1 big-picture priority.The Twins have played 104 games this year. In the first 52, they went 15-37, digging into a hopelessly deep hole. In the second 52, they went 25-27. They're still mired in last place because of that horrendous start, but they have been playing decent ball for two months now.

 

The offensive breakthrough has been a striking component in this improvement. Over the first 52 games, the Twins posted a .686 OPS while averaging 3.7 runs per game. In the latter 52, they posted a .774 OPS and averaged 5.2 runs.

 

Yet, we all know the reason they are still two games under .500 over the past couple months despite their prolific scoring. It's pitching, which is also the reason many fans are understandably skeptical of the club's ability to turn around and contend in 2017.

 

Recognizing this, Antony told reporters last week that he was honing in on starting pitching, noting that "we don't have a lot of guys that are right on the cusp." This is indeed true, and especially problematic with questions swirling around so many players that figure to be in the rotation mix next year.

 

Against this backdrop, the acquisition of Adalberto Mejia from the Giants looks like a master stroke by Antony and the front office. While he's not an ace-in-the-making, Mejia is a big, young, MLB-ready left-hander whose stock is on the rise. The 23-year-old crept onto Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list for the first time last month, appearing at No. 91 on the site's midseason update. With a still-developing slider, he has struck out 24 percent of batters faced between Double-A and Triple-A this season, improving over his previous career mark of 20 percent.

 

At the Futures Game three weeks ago, Twins prospect J.T. Chargois started the top of the ninth for the U.S. team. Mejia started the bottom half for World, closing out a victory with his scoreless frame.

 

He is exactly the kind of arm the Twins needed to add, and they did so while giving up a player that, in my opinion, should have been behind Eduardo Escobar in the shortstop pecking order anyway.

 

This team has given up the most runs in the American League, and is on pace to allow more than any Twins squad since 1996. Obviously, there are many legitimate reasons for concern about the pitching staff's outlook.

 

On offense, the pieces are already in place. Turning this rotation into one that can contend is easily the most pressing task Antony or his replacement will face.

 

But it feels a bit less insurmountable with Mejia joining Jose Berrios, who makes his return to the big-league mound on Monday night, as promising young hurlers that are on right on the cusp.

 

Click here to view the article

[Danchat]

For 2017, I see Santana, Gibson, and hopefully Berrios in the rotation. The other two spots will have to be filled somehow - perhaps Mejia wins one, maybe the Twins remember that May was a good starter, or they trade/sign a FA.  I'd like it if the Twins didn't go into 2017 with Milone or Nolasco locked into a spot. 

[Rosterman]

There is no reason to go to arbitration with Milone at this point. The hope is someone claims him and if you really want him back, then you are free to negotiate. Same with Plouffe. Make it the decision of another team.

[jorgenswest]

Mejia has 8 starts in AAA. He should get at least another 5 this year. With success and a good start next year in AAA, he hopefully can be ready early in the 2017 season.

 

There is no magic number of starts, but significant learning happens in AAA.. Most prospects don't blow batters away with raw stuff and the mistakes they get away with in the minors are barreled up in the majors. The Twins need to have the patience to develop his talent and waiting some of April has the side benefit in an extra year of control.

[birddog]

Really looking forward to Berrios' second run in the bigs. He was fun to watch and showed a good ability to miss bats, but as mentioned his mistakes were hit hard and thus the huge ERA. He hopefully becomes an ace and Gibson, Duffy, Mejia, and even May and Meyer can provide solid options for next year. I hope Santana is still here. If not we have to believe we got a solid option(s) for the future in exchange for him. 

[DocBauer]

Berrios may or may not set the world on fire initially, but he's very talented, and is ready for prime time now. And the next two months will help him get ready for 2017.

 

I also see Santana and Gibson as givens. And I dont think that's all that bad of a threesome to start with. No ACE, no world beaters, but a solid start.

 

After that? May should absolutely be stretched out again. He was showing some real ability and improvement last season, and would probably be that much better already if allowed to remain a starter, something he has been his entire career previously. And he was good enough to be considered a pretty highly regarded prospects as such.

 

I'm fairly excited about Mejia, and it looks like we may have picked up a bit of a steal there. And I've been reading about his rankings and his improvements. But I think half a season of AAA should temper expectations a bit. Still, he has a shot in '17, even if it's not out of the gate.

 

I'd really like to see what Wheeler has going for him. If you go through his milb numbers, you will see an excellent debut in 2012 at Beloit, followed by a very solid 2014 in Ft Myers and then an even better, fast tracked 2014 split between FTM and AA before a final start in Rochester. For whatever reason, the wheels came off in 2015, but he's been borderline dominant for Rochester this season. He deserves a shot at this point.

 

I still like Duffey. Yes he's been up and down this season, but we've seen what he is capable of, and he has all of 27 ML starts at this point. Meyer still has talent, and a shot.

 

The 2017 rotation has a chance to be respectable, and mostly young. Though it's true our best arms are in AA right now and not yet ready. But other than a flyer on someone as a bounce-back flyer, I don't want to see the Twins invest in any more veteran FA starters.

[Brandon]

Since we do have the starters in AA that should be ready at some point next year, i am ok with Nolasco starting the year with Twins as long as he moves aside when Gonsalves or one of tje others are ready for their chance.

[troyhobbs]

Trade Santana, use next year to allow the cream to rise to the top within the organization (since FA market for P will be bland) and fill in the rotation as needed w/ a FA or 2 going in to '18.

[dgwills]

 

Trade Santana, use next year to allow the cream to rise to the top within the organization (since FA market for P will be bland) and fill in the rotation as needed w/ a FA or 2 going in to '18.

Agreed. Sadly there is no fix for 2017. Santana likely will not be the same pitcher by 2018, so you might as well get what you can for him now. If Polanco looks like he can be a major league second baseman by next year I'd also trade Dozier in the off-season.

The reason the rebuild has taken so long is that the Twin's never had a plan and tried too hard to put together a .500 ball club. Giving up on 2017 sucks, but it's time to start making good decisions.

[Blackjack]

I still hope that they see enough good in Polanco the rest of the season that they can flip Dozier this winter. I'd hold out for a young starting pitcher or catcher that is major league ready.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Since we do have the starters in AA that should be ready at some point next year, i am ok with Nolasco starting the year with Twins as long as he moves aside when Gonsalves or one of tje others are ready for their chance.

I wouldn't count on Gonsalves, Stewart or Jay being ready before late next year, and even then, it is quite possible Jay will be on an innings limit and one or both of Gonsalves or Stewart won't be ready or -- knock on wood -- injured. Mid-2018 is the earliest I would expect to see one or more of them become full time rotation fixtures.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I wouldn't count on Gonsalves, Stewart or Jay being ready before late next year, and even then, it is quite possible Jay will be on an innings limit and one or both of Gonsalves or Stewart won't be ready or -- knock on wood -- injured. Mid-2018 is the earliest I would expect to see one or more of them become full time rotation fixtures.

 

I don't know about earliest. Most likely maybe and even that seems a stretch.

 

Those guys will be in AAA for most of next year so I don't think it's crazy to think that one of them might earn a September 2017 call up or cause some stirring service time debates in spring training of 2018. By the start of 2018 there may be a ton of rotation spots open if Santana gets moved at deadline 2016/2017 (even if he doesn't go this year, he'll be a prime candidate next year with only one year left on the deal, making him a rental+), Nolasco/Milone are gone and Hughes has become a bullpen guy. I don't see the Twins going to get back in the free agent market in any serious way either.

 

So you're looking at potentially making choices among Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, May, the May/Rogers/Wheeler types, maybe a vet and then the young guys. If any of Jay/Gonsalves/Jorge/Stewart builds on this year they could be tapped to start 2018 or fill in for injuries in late 2017.

[twinssouth]

Tons of movement today. Let's see if I get this straight;

 

 

 

Duffey goes to pen

Berrios starts

Nolasco out

Santiago in

Abad gone

 

 

 

So, we're down I pitcher (whose coming up)

 

Replaced 2 starters and both are HUGE improvements. No more molasco Nolasco

[Mr. Brooks]

Tons of movement today. Let's see if I get this straight;

 

 

 

Duffey goes to pen

Berrios starts

Nolasco out

Santiago in

Abad gone

 

 

 

So, we're down I pitcher (whose coming up)

 

Replaced 2 starters and both are HUGE improvements. No more molasco Nolasco

No, we are not down a pitcher.

 

Nolasco and Abad left, replaced by Berrios and Santiago.

[Mike Sixel]

In the Duffey to pen thread, there is a tweet that Duffey is in the rotation....where in the world is Santiago going to pitch?

 

sorry, couldn't help myself there.....

[Mr. Brooks]

In the Duffey to pen thread, there is a tweet that Duffey is in the rotation....where in the world is Santiago going to pitch?

 

sorry, couldn't help myself there.....

I would guess Milone DFA.