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Article: GM for a Deadline


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This offseason I played the part of GM For a Day and swung a bunch of trades and made Joe Mauer my new right fielder. The Twins didn’t follow my directions, have fired their GM and still haven’t contacted me about joining the front office before the trade deadline.

 

So since it’s not a secret, I’ll tell you what I’d do in the next five days.TRADE RICKY NOLASCO

 

The origination of this move had more to do with finally opening up a spot for Jose Berrios. But after Tyler Duffey’s performance on Wednesday night, you can make room without doing too much. Regardless, I’d still move Nolasco and the roughly $17 million remaining on his contract. Nolasco has long been enamored with the Dodgers and the Dodgers can’t seem to keep five healthy starters on their roster.

 

The Twins are deficient in two areas and those are pitching and catching. That’s what I’m looking for (in a unique way) in this deal. The Dodgers ponied up $30 million this winter to Yaisel Sierra, a 25-year-old Cuban who has been very disappointing. As of this point, the Dodgers have only paid out around $3.7 million of the deal, leaving Sierra on the books for $26.3 million (through 2021). Sierra also has the option to opt-out of his deal when/if he hits arbitration.

 

I’ll take Sierra back. There’s still upside, though that’s barely evident by the line he’s put up in high-A ball thus far: 1.544 WHIP, 6.62 ERA, 61/24 K/BB in 68.0 innings. After signing a major-league contract this winter, he was outrighted off the 40-man earlier this month.

 

Then there’s the issue of money. On the surface, the Dodgers could send around $9.3 million and everything is equal (and the Dodgers probably would because what’s money to them? Or they could just take on Nolasco’s contact). But I’d be willing to cut their contribution down to $6 million if I could get a slightly better return. (Which makes the Twins responsible for the rest of this year and the second half of Sierra’s signing bonus.)

 

I’m also asking for the Dodgers to throw in AAA catcher Austin Barnes. Barnes is a 26-year-old who has a .300/.389/.440 career minor-league line but has struggled in 62 big league plate appearances (.176/.311/.235). Barnes also has some experience at both second and third base.

 

The roster impact would be minimal: Nolasco would be off the 25-man roster and out of the starting rotation and Berrios would be his replacement. Barnes would take Nolasco’s spot on the 40-man, but would report (at least right away) to Rochester. Sierra would head to Fort Myers and would begin working in the rotation (after the Dodgers have shifted him to the bullpen).

 

TRADE BRANDON KINTZLER

 

The Cubs just made a huge move for a closer… and the Cardinals, who need bullpen help, claim they won’t make a reactionary move. That’s great. If they’re looking in the bargain bin, the Twins are only one call away.

 

Kintzler has been a dominant force since being selected by the Twins (after being a minor-league addition) and currently sports a 1.011 WHIP and 2.05 ERA in 30.2 innings. While he doesn’t strike many out (5.9 K/9), he could slot into a 7th- or 8th-inning role and come with the added benefit of being under team control for one more year.

 

The emergence of Kintzler (and his availability) gives the Twins a chance to somewhat fix the mistake they made in giving away Chih-Wei Hu for Kevin Jepsen. In return for Kintzler, I’m looking for low-A SP Sandy Alcantara, a 6’ 4’ 20-year-old right-handed pitcher.

 

Alcantara is striking out batters at a very high clip (11.9 K/9) and his 119 strikeouts on the season rank among the highest in all of minor league baseball. Right now he’s a fastball guy (and it’s fast, too, clocked over 100 mph) with a lot of raw secondary pitches. It would be a gamble worth taking for both teams.

 

While it’s possible that the Cardinals would balk at that price, I’d be willing to sweeten the deal with one of many of the low-level minor league pitchers that the Twins have in the system.

 

The Cardinals also have a trio of closer-to-the-bigs pitchers: Luke Weaver, Tim Cooney and Marco Gonzales. While Weaver would be a great addition, that would be a steep price to pay for the Cardinals. Cooney and Gonzales have both debuted, but are out with injuries. Cooney has missed all season and is out indefinitely with a shoulder ailment and Gonzales had Tommy John surgery this spring. Making a move for either of them would be a unique way to add rotation depth.

 

Again, there wouldn’t be much in the way roster-wise. The Twins gain a 40-man spot and a 25-man spot, which I would use to select Trevor Hildenberger and plug him into the bullpen. Alcantara would join the Kernels rotation for the stretch run. (For the record, Alcantara has faced Cedar Rapids twice, he got shelled the first time and shut the Kernels down a week later.)

 

TRADE EDDIE ROSARIO AND FERNANDO ABAD TO THE INDIANS

 

I’m going outside of the box on this one. The Indians probably match up just as well with the Twins in their need of a catcher (Kurt Suzuki) and a third baseman (since-traded Eduardo Nunez), but they’ve been decimated by outfield injuries and could use some bullpen help as well.

 

First off, I’m OK with moving Rosario. (I’d be pushing to move him, in fact.) I wouldn’t close the book on moving Joe Mauer to right field this offseason. I don’t mind Robbie Grossman getting regular at-bats (for now). I’d like to see what Daniel Palka and/or Adam Brett Walker can bring to the table. Danny Santana is a serviceable backup centerfielder.

 

I'd target a pitcher from the Indians. Sticking with the “big-league” ready theme, I'm asking for Mike Clevinger or Cody Anderson.

Clevinger has emerged as a one of, if not the best pitching prospect the team has. He struggled in his major league debut earlier this season, but has handled AAA and appears poised to re-enter the big leagues.

 

Anderson was phenomenal last year as a rookie, but has bounced between AAA and the Indians six times this season and has struggled to show any consistency. He will only be a 1+ service player, so the team has five more years of control (the same as what they’ll trade away in Rosario).

 

Both pitchers are just 25 years old.

 

I’d slot either into the rotation for the rest of the year at the expense of Duffey (for now anyway).

 

In giving up Abad additionally, I’d ask for a prospect who's further down the ladder. The target here is LHP Juan Hillman. Hillman has backed up a little bit after being drafted in the second round last year, but it’s a risk I’d be willing to take on a kid that was high school teammates with Nick Gordon and has been mentored by Tom Gordon, who became his legal guardian while Hillman was a high schooler. Hillman would move into the Elizabethton rotation with a chance to move up to Cedar Rapids.

 

In terms of the roster, this would create an additional spot on the 40-man. My 25-man would be up a starter (though I’d option Duffey to fit Clevinger/Anderson into the rotation), down a bullpen arm (recall Chargois to take Abad’s spot) and down a hitter (purchase the contract of Daniel Palka to get him some major league at-bats). All moves that would be relatively easy to make.

 

TRADE KURT SUZUKI

 

Having already added two more near-ready arms, I'm willing to wait out the catching market to see what transpires. Lucroy has to be the first domino to fall. If the Rangers don't get Lucroy, I'd definitely be interested in AA 2B Andy Ibanez. Adding Ibanez may seem redundant when Polanco is already blocked, but accumulating assets is never a bad thing and Ibanez is a great hitter. He may also be too high of a price for the Rangers.

 

I think Boston - the Axe Bat capital - also seems like a viable destination. Trey Ball is an intriguing name. He's nowhere close to the majors, but he has plenty of upside to offer.

 

Regardless of the destination, Suzuki must be moved by the deadline. I'm replacing him on the 40-man and 25-man by selecting the contract of AA catcher Mitch Garver.

 

EXPLORE TRADING KYLE GIBSON

 

I read today that Jeremy Hellickson may net the Phillies four prospects. Gibson, who is still a year from arbitration, could have significant trade value (either now or this winter). Could the Orioles offer Chance Sisco, a pitcher (David Hess, Chris Lee or Parker Bridwell) and a lottery ticket? Is that even enough? It's worth looking into.

 

PUT OUT FEELERS TO MOVE TREVOR PLOUFFE IN AUGUST

 

If the Indians were possibly interested in Nunez before he was moved, they may like what Plouffe could offer them. With one more year of arbitration looming, Plouffe is probably a non-tender candidate for whoever he plays for and should likely be viewed as only a rental player. He won't net a large return but it allows us to avoid a winter in which we pretend that Miguel Sano can play anywhere besides third base.

 

SHOP TOMMY MILONE ALL OF AUGUST

 

I don't know where he'd best fit - I thought the Marlins made a ton of sense before they sold the farm to San Diego - but there's no reason to roster Milone for the rest of the season. Take the cash or take a young lottery ticket.

 

OPEN UP TO THE IDEA OF MOVING BRIAN DOZIER THIS WINTER

 

No contenders need a second baseman right now, so it would be impossible to seize anything of value for Dozier. But once we hit the Winter Meetings everybody believes they're a contender and moving Dozier is the first move the new GM should make. I still don't think the return is going to be enormous, but it should be enough to net a minimum of two future pieces while allowing the Twins to get a season-long look at Jorge Polanco at second base (and batting second behind Byron Buxton).

 

RECAP

 

Remove Nolasco (25-man and 40-man)

Remove Kintzler (25-man and 40-man)

Remove Abad (25-man and 40-man)

Remove Rosario (25-man and 40-man)

Remove Suzuki (25-man and 40-man)

Option Duffey (25-man)

 

Recall Berrios (25-man)

Recall Chargois (25-man)

Add Clevinger/Anderson (25-man and 40-man)

Select Hildenberger (25-man and 40-man)

Select Palka (25-man and 40-man)

Select Garver (25-man and 40-man)

 

Add Barnes (40-man; option to AAA)

 

Consider trading Gibson, Plouffe, Milone and Dozier.

 

How many of these moves would you make?

 

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I enjoy your speculation and can offer no real suggestions since I do not know the minor leaguers well enough, but it is time to shake things up and these are good places to start.  I am sure others will find different names, but I am not sure that the names matter as much as the effort.

 

I look at Escobar - is he our SS or is it Polanco.  I do not want to see Polanco rotting on the bench again.  

 

What about Park?  Can we flip him?  We have enough other DH/1B players including one who is only clogging the pool because of contract obligations.  

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Rosario is the only name on that that potentially surprises me.  Do you think his value is peaked?  I'd probably leave Vargas alone. I'd argue he's got tremendous upside.  I'd want to get Park back up, and moving Mauer to RF would essentially do that.  You don't need to trade Vargas at that point either. I have to admit though that Clevinger looks like a pretty solid 2/3 type guy.

 

The Nolasco trade is pretty creative. I'll give you that.

 

Not sure I see the cards moving Alacantra for a reliever.

 

So humor me.  Why add Hlidenberger's contract when Melotakis is on the 40 man already?  I'd probably bring up Mason and promote Hildenberger to AAA.  He'd be a candidate for next year's team, but no reason would I risk having to burn an option this quick if he didn't pan out right away. 

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Very fun article, and good research!

 

But I think you aim too high at times. Austin Barnes will not be a throw-in to a Nolasco-Sierra salary swap, they actually just recalled him. Also, even without Kershaw and Ryu, the Dodgers have 4 starters better than Nolasco, plus DeLeon in AAA if they choose to call him up. I don't think the Dodgers would be in a rush to make this deal before the nonwaiver deadline, and once we get to August, including Barnes would be impossible as he is on the 40-man and would not clear waivers (although I suppose he could be a PTBNL who comes over after the season).

 

Barnes is a B- prospect by Sickels, and a good defensive catcher who is MLB ready. You have to include more value than Nolasco to get him, perhaps one of our B- prospects if the Dodgers like them, Polanco or Gonsalves?

 

And if you acquired Barnes, why in the world would you call up Garver from AA?

Edited by spycake
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As for Sandy Alcantara of the Cardinals, Sickels also has him on the rise, suggesting a B- grade in his mid season update. Seems pretty steep for Kintzler, the Cardinals don't seem aggressive about trading prospects. Seems like they have targeted cheaper bullpen projects in the past? Their pen right now doesn't seem to bad either, yeah Rosenthal struggled and is hurt but Oh has been amazing, and they seem to have a few steady but not dominant Kintzler types already.

 

Just noticed you also suggested sweetening the deal with a prospect, I would be curious what guys you would consider for that.

Edited by spycake
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I appreciate the creativity of the Rosario/Abad deal. Cody Anderson seems the more likely get, as Clevinger seems pretty well regarded (B+ from Sickels). If included, Hillman would be a bigger piece than Anderson too, Sickels sounds like he might have him as a B. I am not sure they deal him without getting a C or 3B in return (they actually have 4 healthy OF who are out-performing Eddie Rosario in 2016 OPS+ right now).

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Rosario is the only name on that that potentially surprises me.  Do you think his value is peaked?  I'd probably leave Vargas alone. I'd argue he's got tremendous upside.  I'd want to get Park back up, and moving Mauer to RF would essentially do that.  You don't need to trade Vargas at that point either. I have to admit though that Clevinger looks like a pretty solid 2/3 type guy.

 

The Nolasco trade is pretty creative. I'll give you that.

 

Not sure I see the cards moving Alacantra for a reliever.

 

So humor me.  Why add Hlidenberger's contract when Melotakis is on the 40 man already?  I'd probably bring up Mason and promote Hildenberger to AAA.  He'd be a candidate for next year's team, but no reason would I risk having to burn an option this quick if he didn't pan out right away.

 

Hildenberger has been the most dominant pitcher in the system this year. Melotakis has been good, but nowhere near what Hildenberger has been. Rosters open up in 30 days and he should be - at a minimum - the Twins 7th inning guy next year. Adding him now hurts nothing.

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Hildenberger has been the most dominant pitcher in the system this year. Melotakis has been good, but nowhere near what Hildenberger has been. Rosters open up in 30 days and he should be - at a minimum - the Twins 7th inning guy next year. Adding him now hurts nothing.

Yeeah, he looks like he could be something special.  He's been dominant 

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Very fun article, and good research!

But I think you aim too high at times. Austin Barnes will not be a throw-in to a Nolasco-Sierra salary swap, they actually just recalled him. Also, even without Kershaw and Ryu, the Dodgers have 4 starters better than Nolasco, plus DeLeon in AAA if they choose to call him up. I don't think the Dodgers would be in a rush to make this deal before the nonwaiver deadline, and once we get to August, including Barnes would be impossible as he is on the 40-man and would not clear waivers (although I suppose he could be a PTBNL who comes over after the season).

Barnes is a B- prospect by Sickels, and a good defensive catcher who is MLB ready. You have to include more value than Nolasco to get him, perhaps one of our B- prospects if the Dodgers like them, Polanco or Gonsalves?

 

It's possible that I aim too high, but it's a seller's market. We've seen a number of 50 FV prospects go already, so that's the area I targeted (using MLB and BA).

 

Of course, I don't know if the Dodgers are even into "selling" prospects, but that was the idea behind that.

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Very fun article, and good research!

 

But I think you aim too high at times. Austin Barnes will not be a throw-in to a Nolasco-Sierra salary swap, they actually just recalled him. Also, even without Kershaw and Ryu, the Dodgers have 4 starters better than Nolasco, plus DeLeon in AAA if they choose to call him up. I don't think the Dodgers would be in a rush to make this deal before the nonwaiver deadline, and once we get to August, including Barnes would be impossible as he is on the 40-man and would not clear waivers (although I suppose he could be a PTBNL who comes over after the season).

 

Barnes is a B- prospect by Sickels, and a good defensive catcher who is MLB ready. You have to include more value than Nolasco to get him, perhaps one of our B- prospects if the Dodgers like them, Polanco or Gonsalves?

If Antony trades all of Nolasco's contract for Sierra and Austin Barnes, we might have to think hard about having him stay on as GM.

 

Barnes seems like the best catching scenario out there. Philly is the other team with catching depth, but they aren't buyers. So the Dodgers are the best bet. I hope that Antony is trying hard to acquire him.

 

Great article, by the way. Really interesting proposals. (Clevinger ideas sound great.)

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As for Sandy Alcantara of the Cardinals, Sickels also has him on the rise, suggesting a B- grade in his mid season update. Seems pretty steep for Kintzler, the Cardinals don't seem aggressive about trading prospects. Seems like they have targeted cheaper bullpen projects in the past? Their pen right now doesn't seem to bad either, yeah Rosenthal struggled and is hurt but Oh has been amazing, and they seem to have a few steady but not dominant Kintzler types already.

Just noticed you also suggested sweetening the deal with a prospect, I would be curious what guys you would consider for that.

 

Another 50 FV guy. But he's so far away. I think this trade would be less likely to happen based on that, but I would be willing to throw in just about any low-A or lower arm (with the exceptions of Wells and Ynoa). But I'd package either of those guys to get Weaver.

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This is what Dave Cameron said about the Dodgers starters not named Kershaw in response to someone giving reasons why he thought the Dodgers' rotation with Kershaw wasn't good.:

 

 

'The 2016 line of Maeda/McCarthy/Kazmir/Norris/Urias.

 

385 IP, 8% BB%, 24% K%, 1.05 HR/9, 98 ERA-, 92 FIP-, 93 xFIP-

 

That FIP- and xFIP- would rank 7th in baseball, putting that group in line with the Cubs, and just a tick behind the Indians.

 

Maybe you can’t see that this group has pitched well this year, but they have. You can think Bud Norris is bad if you want, but ignoring that he added a new pitch and has run a 3.40 ERA/2.82 FIP/3.04 xFIP over his last nine starts is silly. Saying that McCarthy “stank” last year and the year before betrays a lack of knowledge of his improvements. Citing Kazmir’s ERA and HR rate while ignoring every other positive is intellectually dishonest.

 

The Dodgers non-Kershaw starters this year have performed well. Full stop.'

 

Edited by jimmer
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I like the creativity of the Nolasco trade. It's really the first plausible idea I've seen in a while. Trading Rosario seems like a bad idea to me. He's got great hands and bat speed, plus good defense. I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.

Personally I think all moves should be made with the plan of making the playoffs in 2018. Santana will be more of a problem than Gibson by that point.  That and Santana is having a better year, so he is just a better all around trade candidate. 

The rest of your GM plans look good to me.

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This is what Dave Cameron said about the Dodgers starters not named Kershaw in response to someone giving reasons why he thought the Dodgers' rotation with Kershaw wasn't good.:

 

 

'The 2016 line of Maeda/McCarthy/Kazmir/Norris/Urias.

 

385 IP, 8% BB%, 24% K%, 1.05 HR/9, 98 ERA-, 92 FIP-, 93 xFIP-

 

That FIP- and xFIP- would rank 7th in baseball, putting that group in line with the Cubs, and just a tick behind the Indians.

 

Maybe you can’t see that this group has pitched well this year, but they have. You can think Bud Norris is bad if you want, but ignoring that he added a new pitch and has run a 3.40 ERA/2.82 FIP/3.04 xFIP over his last nine starts is silly. Saying that McCarthy “stank” last year and the year before betrays a lack of knowledge of his improvements. Citing Kazmir’s ERA and HR rate while ignoring every other positive is intellectually dishonest.

 

The Dodgers non-Kershaw starters this year have performed well. Full stop.'

 

I'm not going dispute statistical evidence that suggests they shouldn't pursue starting pitching.

 

But plenty of the media - theirs and the National guys - have cited conversations that they've had with numerous teams about starting pitching.

 

None of that suggests they'd have any interest in Nolasco, but that's what you get with speculatory pieces.

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My only issue is the Rosario deal, I understand need to trade talent to get talent, but my worry is the defense going forward.  Joe moving to right, or having ABW or Palka, who I do not know either to be that good defense wise, would hurt our outfield defense moving forward, and our offense may not be any better.  Eddie has shown an improved approach at the plate, and even admitted he was pressing when got into a early slump.  I am a big defense first guy, so that is why I would want to keep Eddie. 

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Definately would do the Kintzler for Sandy ALcantara deal

 

! i was thinking the same thing all week long.

 

NO Way the Cards would give up the following : RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Alexander Reyes, and SS edmundo sosa, of magnierus sierra, and C/3B Carson Kelly....

 

that leaves us with Sandy Alcantara, Junior Fernandez, Duaner Gonzalez, Jake Woodford, Ryan Helsly, and LHP Austin Gomber as the options.

 

 

It be a tough choice, but I'd rank them as follows:

 

1. Alcantara

2. Gomber

3. Fernandez

4. Gonzalez

5. Helsly 

 

to get Alcantara i'd throw in Abad too, although the Cards prob wouldn't want him at all. (hopefully they see the value in Kintzler and agree to a match-up there)

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I loved the Nolasco trade idea. Basically, you have to trade for change of location. But getting someone younger back could prove enlightening. Plus, not being on the 40-man, does that mean the Twins can carry him OFF the 40-man until November?

 

 

The Twins currently have 3 40-man spots open. They will need approx. 7-8 potential between now and the setting of rosters in November, with two spots coming back with Hughes and Perkins.

 

I don't necessarily see them adding Hildenberger. Also, Reed could also be out because YOU DON'T NEED to add the guys yet (similar to Berrios last year). 

 

But who comes up in September (pretty much anyone on the 40-man...Walker, Mason, Chargolis). Do you add back in a second look at maybes like Albers, O;Rourke, Darnell. Do you reward Beresford? Do you take a look at, say, Tovar? Do you immediately jump ANY of the guys WHO NEED to be added to the 40-man anyways? Takes an advance look at Gonsalves, Stewart?

 

Also, would like to see WImmers get a look at the major league level. It is sink or swim elsewhere time for him.

 

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My only issue is the Rosario deal, I understand need to trade talent to get talent, but my worry is the defense going forward. Joe moving to right, or having ABW or Palka, who I do not know either to be that good defense wise, would hurt our outfield defense moving forward, and our offense may not be any better. Eddie has shown an improved approach at the plate, and even admitted he was pressing when got into a early slump. I am a big defense first guy, so that is why I would want to keep Eddie.

What is this improved approach at the plate you speak of?

The guy had 1 walk in 78 plate appearances since being called back up!!

 

The only difference between Rosario post recall, vs. Rosario pre recall, is that his babip is 100 points above his norm.

 

Guys that swing at everything simply cannot have sustained success at the plate.

If he has value, I'd be all for trading him. If he doesn't, I would send him down to AAA, and I'd start from scratch and totally revamp his approach at the plate, even if that means he never gets it and never plays an mlb game for us again.

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very interesting. Like others, I like Rosario and would have a hard time moving him. Nice return, but I feel he has a bright future and I wouldn't move him until I know more about Palma and Granite.

 

I do like Mauer in the OF, even just part time for flexibility. Might allow room for Park AND Vargas both.

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I don't think Rosario really has much value. I'm sure there are teams that would love to take a crack at teaching him how to hit, but they aren't going to pay much for that opportunity. 

 

To put it another way, his value is that of a 4th OF + the chance he can be turned into a solid regular * the value of a solid regular with his years of control, etc.

 

So, more than a pure 4th OF, but much less than a solid regular, since the chances of fixing him aren't great.

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Nice work on the article, interesting stuff for sure. I think I'm all for most of the moves except I would have a hard time trading Rosario. For one, I think you would be selling low and two, I think he will be a valuable piece if we ever get to a place where we are contenders. He has flaws no doubt, but he looks to have an idea at the plate now. He is taking a lot more pitches, at least it seems that way. And he is making a lot more contact this time around. He really seems like he is a player, and I only see he getting better.

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Nice work on the article, interesting stuff for sure. I think I'm all for most of the moves except I would have a hard time trading Rosario. For one, I think you would be selling low and two, I think he will be a valuable piece if we ever get to a place where we are contenders. He has flaws no doubt, but he looks to have an idea at the plate now. He is taking a lot more pitches, at least it seems that way. And he is making a lot more contact this time around. He really seems like he is a player, and I only see he getting better.

Well, Rosario has had a great month at the plate, no doubt.  A lot of the players have.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=30&type=8&season=2016&month=3&season1=2016&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

 

Look how well Kepler is doing this month...and he has a .209 BABIP this month.

Edited by jimmer
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What is this improved approach at the plate you speak of?
The guy had 1 walk in 78 plate appearances since being called back up!!

The only difference between Rosario post recall, vs. Rosario pre recall, is that his babip is 100 points above his norm.

Guys that swing at everything simply cannot have sustained success at the plate.
If he has value, I'd be all for trading him. If he doesn't, I would send him down to AAA, and I'd start from scratch and totally revamp his approach at the plate, even if that means he never gets it and never plays an mlb game for us again.

 

 

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#TradeEddie

 

It's the same wagon I've been riding for over a year. If his value is high, move him.

I still like Rosario and his potential. But let's say we can and do move him. We can even assume, for a moment, that the Twins would even consider Mauer in the OF. That's still a short term answer. (Though I like making room for both Vargas and Park) What do you see as the long term solution? Is it the powerful Palka? Or maybe the hit/contact/speed of Granite?

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