Article: Twins Trade Deadline Tidbits

[d-mac]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/rays-phillies-placing-high-asking-prices-on-starters.html

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/white-sox-open-to-moving-james-shields.html

 

Couple of interesting tidbits from the traderumors site that relate to Santana. It looks like the Rays are placing quite the high price on their young, controllable starters and the Phillies are asking for a team's top 5 prospect for a Hellicskon rental. If the asking prices for pitchers remain high, it'll make Santana more appealing. 

 

Also, looks like the White Sox are trying to deal James Shields. He's a year older than Santana, under contract through 2018 (with $1 mil buyout, like Santana), and has been fairly awful this year. However, he has a long track record of #2-3 type performances, unlike Santana. If the White Sox manage to move him, the return might be something similar to Santana. 

 

Edit: If only the Twins were more open to trading Santana...

[KidBro]

It's 1:25pm on July 27th, at minimum 3 months and 17 hours removed from playoff contention. Our front office (past & present) seems to have a real niche of being able to Inspire Uninspire the Uninspired Inspired. My mood, and patience is turning foul.  

 

I can't imagine there isn't some sort of a market for Nunez, and somehow Ichiro Suzuki.  Give, don't give us anything back, whatever.... the Future of this team has been held back for far too long now.    

[jimmer]

When I think of Number 3 starters, Ervin Santana is exactly the type of pitcher that comes to mind.

Edited July 27, 2016 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 

Also, looks like the White Sox are trying to deal James Shields. He's a year older than Santana, under contract through 2018 (with $1 mil buyout, like Santana), and has been fairly awful this year.

Interesting.

 

It should be noted that Shields has been much better lately. Actually, folks have been citing the roll that Santana has been on -- 2.02 ERA his last 7 starts.  Well, Shields has a 2.11 ERA his last 7 starts.  (Santana has the edge on peripherals, but they've both been benefitting from a low BABIP.)  Shields is up to an 86 ERA+ on the season, which is pretty incredible compared to where it was a month ago.

 

Also, with the money the Padres are picking up for Shields, the White Sox can shop him now with only $24 mil guaranteed left on his deal, as compared to Ervin's remaining $33 mil.

[jimmer]

 

Interesting.

 

It should be noted that Shields has been much better lately. Actually, folks have been citing the roll that Santana has been on -- 2.02 ERA his last 7 starts.  Well, Shields has a 2.11 ERA his last 7 starts.  (Santana has the edge on peripherals, but they've both been benefitting from a low BABIP.)  Shields is up to an 86 ERA+ on the season, which is pretty incredible compared to where it was a month ago.

 

Also, with the money the Padres are picking up for Shields, the White Sox can shop him now with only $24 mil guaranteed left on his deal, as compared to Ervin's remaining $33 mil.

Maxamuz: With the news James Shields is back on the trade market, who buys? LAD? BOS?

 

12:46

Dave Cameron: During this six start stretch where he’s “fixed” his problems and posted a 1.71 ERA, he’s running a 4.85 FIP/5.10 xFIP. No one should be very interested unless the White Sox are literally giving him away.

 

[TheLeviathan]

I think this says how I'm feeling these days....

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

No but the Twins have never comitted to a full rebuild like Houston did, a complete tear down. Many of the offensive players prospect wise are here for the Twins. The have to rebuild the pitching staff and starting pitching matters in doing that. I think Santana is still a valuable member of the Twins rotation, he pitches innings and he gives them a chance to win. Hard to find that within the Twins own system. That is why I am a proponent of keeping him, Santana.

 

We'll just disagree. I see such a TINY percent chance they are good, let alone truly competitive, next year, I see no reason to care if it is Santana or Dean pitching to start next year.

 

start of year:

Berrios

Gibson

May

Milone 

Duffey 

 

after trade deadline next year:

Berrios

Gibson

May

Duffey (or, the most deserving from AA this year)

the next most deserving from AA team this year

[tobi0040]

When I think of Number 3 starters, Ervin Santana is exactly the type of pitcher that comes to mind.

Agreed. He has the same career ERA plus as Leake and actually better than Shark. So I don't see how 2-27 isn't more of an asset than a liability.

 

Those guys are younger but they got much longer deals than 2 years

[jimmer]

 

Agreed. He has the same career ERA plus as Leake and actually better than Shark. So I don't see how 2-27 isn't more of an asset than a liability.

 

That's what I keep saying.  (and, BTW, it's 2/28 plus whatever he has left to be paid this year :-))

Edited July 27, 2016 by jimmer

[Kwak]

Trade Santana--for what I ask? I read "...a "good" return." What is that!? If I knew, I could formulate an answer to the offer. But, so far I haven't heard the specifics of any offer.

 

The Twins will need a rotation of five. So far most are simply candidates who will likely be on a merry-go-round to Rochester (or in May's case--the bullpen). I can envision 2 to 3 candidates for the rotation needed for every slot open on the rotation. Therefore, retaining Santana is a likely option--unless there is a ​very good offer for Santana.

[Mr. Brooks]

Look at the crap TR brought in during the years we were contending. I have to believe there is at least one GM just as dumb and will take a chance on Nolasco if we pick up at least $10 million. Saving $6 million is better than nothing. As for Santana, the horrible FA market has to play into his worth. When the top FAs have Helluckson and Hill towards the top of the list, you know the pickings are slim. I wouldn't even move him for someone the equivalent of Gonclaves.

By saying you wouldn't trade Santana for Gonsalves, then of course that must mean you'd be willing to, as a 100 loss team, trade Gonsalves for a 34 year old #4 starter?

[ghegge]

Sounds like the Indians are in on Nunez.

 

I'd ask for Mejia (Catcher) who is sporting a nice little 39 game hitting streak in the minors, looking to become only the 16th player in minor league history with a 40 gamer, tonight.

I would also look at Kaminsky (LHP) or Clevinger (RHP). Clevinger is a little older than one would like (25), but he is pitching very well at AAA. 10-1, 3.17, 88IP, 89K, 72 hits allowed. Although he didn't fair very well in limited big league action.

 

What do you guys think? Not sure how much we could return for Nunez as these prospects are 7, 8, and 9 in the Indians system.

Edited July 27, 2016 by ghegge

[d-mac]

 

No but the Twins have never comitted to a full rebuild like Houston did, a complete tear down. Many of the offensive players prospect wise are here for the Twins. The have to rebuild the pitching staff and starting pitching matters in doing that. I think Santana is still a valuable member of the Twins rotation, he pitches innings and he gives them a chance to win. Hard to find that within the Twins own system. That is why I am a proponent of keeping him, Santana.

 

I just don't think Santana is that good to where we have to hold onto him. Over his career he's been incredibly inconsistent from year-to-year, he's had a 4.42 xFIP in his Twin's career (he's been lucky), has a mediocre K%, he's been suspended for PEDs, and torn his UCL (but didn't repair it with Tommy John). Oh, and there's this thing called his age. He'll be 35 when Twins are likely contending again in 2018, which is an age when most pitchers are washed up by in post PED baseball. 

Edited July 27, 2016 by d-mac

[d-mac]

 

Sounds like the Indians are in on Nunez.

 

I'd ask for Mejia (Catcher) who is sporting a nice little 39 game hitting streak in the minors, looking to become only the 16th player in minor league history with a 40 gamer, tonight.

I would also look at Kaminsky (LHP) or Clevinger (RHP). Clevinger is a little older than one would like (25), but he is pitching very well at AAA. 10-1, 3.17, 88IP, 89K, 72 hits allowed. Although he didn't fair very well in limited big league action.

 

What do you guys think? Not sure how much we could return for Nunez as these prospects are 7, 8, and 9 in the Indians system.

 

I like it. I have no idea if that's a reasonable return or not. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Sounds like the Indians are in on Nunez.

 

I'd ask for Mejia (Catcher) who is sporting a nice little 39 game hitting streak in the minors, looking to become only the 16th player in minor league history with a 40 gamer, tonight.

I would also look at Kaminsky (LHP) or Clevinger (RHP). Clevinger is a little older than one would like (25), but he is pitching very well at AAA. 10-1, 3.17, 88IP, 89K, 72 hits allowed. Although he didn't fair very well in limited big league action.

 

What do you guys think? Not sure how much we could return for Nunez as these prospects are 7, 8, and 9 in the Indians system.

Welcome to Twins Daily! Those all sound like fair targets to me. I'd say any one in the 5-10 range for their org prospects will work for me. 

That'd probably be the same type of return I'd like to see with Suzuki too if the Indians want to get in on that. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As for Santana, the horrible FA market has to play into his worth. When the top FAs have Helluckson and Hill towards the top of the list, you know the pickings are slim. I wouldn't even move him for someone the equivalent of Gonclaves.

If the other team was taking most of Santana's salary, I'd really have to think about a Gonsalves-equivalent return.  While the money saved wouldn't necessarily get you another Ervin in this winter's FA market, it could easily get you one or two short-term upside gambles to fill the rotation spot in the short term.  And if those gambles don't work out, hopefully adding another near-ready SP to the current mix of Gonsalves, Stewart, Jorge, and Jay would yield a potential MLB replacement in the near future.  (Obviously depends on the particular prospect we are getting too -- not all "Gonsalves equivalents" would really be equivalent to Gonsalves, if that makes sense. )

[Mr. Brooks]

I just don't think Santana is that good to where we have to hold onto him. Over his career he's been incredibly inconsistent from year-to-year, he's had a 4.42 xFIP in his Twin's career (he's been lucky), has a mediocre K%, he's been suspended for PEDs, and torn his UCL (but didn't repair it with Tommy John). Oh, and there's this thing called his age. He'll be 35 when Twins are likely contending again in 2018, which is an when most pitchers are washed up by in post PED baseball.

Yep, Gleeman said it well on kfan today.

He said that when you sign a 32 year old FA pitcher to a 4 year deal, it's the first 2 years that you want, but you pay the extra 2 years because that's the price to get those first 2 years.

The Twins should be thrilled to get years 1 and 2 only, and a prospect or two to boot.

 

I agree 100%.

[ghegge]

 

I like it. I have no idea if that's a reasonable return or not. 

That's what I wasn't sure about either. I just think Clevinger would be a good return because he could step into the rotation now, or at the latest next spring. The Indians don't really have a huge need for him either as they have a great starting rotation as is.

[Vanimal46]

 

Yep, Gleeman said it well on kfan today.
He said that when you sign a 32 year old FA pitcher to a 4 year deal, it's the first 2 years that you want, but you pay the extra 2 years because that's the price to get those first 2 years.
The Twins should be thrilled to get years 1 and 2 only, and a prospect or two to boot.

I agree 100%.

That makes a ton of sense. Why wait until the bitter end where Santana's trade value is zero when the Twins can get out of the last 2 years of this deal?

[Deebers]

 

Trade Santana--for what I ask? I read "...a "good" return." What is that!? If I knew, I could formulate an answer to the offer. But, so far I haven't heard the specifics of any offer.

 

The Twins will need a rotation of five. So far most are simply candidates who will likely be on a merry-go-round to Rochester (or in May's case--the bullpen). I can envision 2 to 3 candidates for the rotation needed for every slot open on the rotation. Therefore, retaining Santana is a likely option--unless there is a ​very good offer for Santana.

 

Are you really suggesting that the Twins can't find somebody to pitch every 5th day if they trade Santana? For starters, calling Berrios back up is long overdue. You've also got Jason Wheeler at AAA, and he could be worth a look. There's also the waiver wire. You could even put Andrew Albers in there. Doesn't matter. The point is that they're not playing for this year anymore, and probably not next year, either, so use those starts to get a look at somebody else, or just give them to anybody at this point. Get the best return you can for Santana under the circumstances and hope you end up with a player who can help in 2-3 years when you're (hopefully) contending again. Santana is not going to be that player, so why bother? That's the whole idea of being a seller at the trade deadline. And teams likely to lose 90-100 games should definitely be sellers. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Are you really suggesting that the Twins can't find somebody to pitch every 5th day if they trade Santana? For starters, calling Berrios back up is long overdue. You've also got Jason Wheeler at AAA, and he could be worth a look. There's also the waiver wire. You could even put Andrew Albers in there. Doesn't matter. The point is that they're not playing for this year anymore, and probably not next year, either, so use those starts to get a look at somebody else, or just give them to anybody at this point. Get the best return you can for Santana under the circumstances and hope you end up with a player who can help in 2-3 years when you're (hopefully) contending again. Santana is not going to be that player, so why bother? That's the whole idea of being a seller at the trade deadline. And teams likely to lose 90-100 games should definitely be sellers. 

 

great post! Welcome to the site.

[d-mac]

 

Trade Santana--for what I ask? I read "...a "good" return." What is that!? If I knew, I could formulate an answer to the offer. But, so far I haven't heard the specifics of any offer.

 

The Twins will need a rotation of five. So far most are simply candidates who will likely be on a merry-go-round to Rochester (or in May's case--the bullpen). I can envision 2 to 3 candidates for the rotation needed for every slot open on the rotation. Therefore, retaining Santana is a likely option--unless there is a ​very good offer for Santana.

 

Who cares who's starting next year? I don't care if it's Dean, Wheeler, or a reclamation project taking the 4-5 spots as long as Berrios, May and Gibson are starting. This team ain't winning next year. Might as well get something of value for a vet that doesn't fit into the picture age-wise.

 

Nobody is stating that we have to win every trade (well, maybe the Twins brass think we have to based on their words and actions the past 5 seasons)- no trades are ever made in a vacuum, or at least they shouldn't be. All we'd like to see is a fair return based on the market for a pitcher like Santana. Trades need to be made with a purpose- for a contender that is dealing a prospect for an upgrade at the ML level, for a team like the Twins that is trading pieces like Santana, Nunez, Suzuki, etc that won't fit into the plans 2-3 years down the road for something that could. 

 

Trying to "win" every trade by getting a better return than the other team is a fool's errand. It takes at least two willing parties to make a trade (or any transaction in a marketplace for that matter) both acting in their own self-interest. Unless the other party is a total fool (or desperate) you'll end up paralyzed- indefinitely waiting for your socks to be blown off. 

 

It's like the Twins are a store, a veteran baseball player store if you will, and Ervin Santana is a gallon milk they are selling. If the market price for a gallon of milk is $2.50, the Twins could set their price for that gallon of milk at $10, but not too many customers would be willing to pay $10/gallon of milk. Might as well go down the street to the White Sox store. The problem is the milk in and of itself isn't all that valuable to a grocery store, the money is far more desirable (grocery stores can't pay their employees in milk, for instance) and in this case the money is the currency of baseball, prospects. 

[Kwak]

 

Who cares who's starting next year? I don't care if it's Dean, Wheeler, or a reclamation project taking the 4-5 spots as long as Berrios, May and Gibson are starting. This team ain't winning next year. Might as well get something of value for a vet that doesn't fit into the picture age-wise.

 

Nobody is stating that we have to win every trade (well, maybe the Twins brass think we have to based on their words and actions the past 5 seasons)- no trades are ever made in a vacuum, or at least they shouldn't be. All we'd like to see is a fair return based on the market for a pitcher like Santana. Trades need to be made with a purpose- for a contender that is dealing a prospect for an upgrade at the ML level, for a team like the Twins that is trading pieces like Santana, Nunez, Suzuki, etc that won't fit into the plans 2-3 years down the road for something that could. 

 

Trying to "win" every trade by getting a better return than the other team is a fool's errand. It takes at least two willing parties to make a trade (or any transaction in a marketplace for that matter) both acting in their own self-interest. Unless the other party is a total fool (or desperate) you'll end up paralyzed- indefinitely waiting for your socks to be blown off. 

 

It's like the Twins are a store, a veteran baseball player store if you will, and Ervin Santana is a gallon milk they are selling. If the market price for a gallon of milk is $2.50, the Twins could set their price for that gallon of milk at $10, but not too many customers would be willing to pay $10/gallon of milk. Might as well go down the street to the White Sox store. The problem is the milk in and of itself isn't all that valuable to a grocery store, the money is far more desirable (grocery stores can't pay their employees in milk, for instance) and in this case the money is the currency of baseball, prospects. 

Your entire point is flawed. No one is advocating "Kings ransom" in return for Santana--and definitely not me! But to just toss him off for salary relief is foolish. I don't care if Pohlad saves money by reducing his payroll--but I sure don't want a repeat of a rotation of Deduno, DeVries, Albers, Corriea and any other garbage plucked from the dumpster as Ryan did before. I (and I believe most fans) have no interest in watching a team tank to 110 losses in order to save on payroll and hope that the 1st or 2nd player in the draft (rather than 3rd to 5th) will transform the Twins into a consistent winner. The Twins will lose plenty enough the next year or two to get good draft position without simply punting on the seasons.

Edited July 27, 2016 by Kwak

[d-mac]

 

Your entire point is flawed. No one is advocating "Kings ransom" in return for Santana--and definitely not me! But to just toss him off for salary relief is foolish. I don't care if Pohlad saves money by reducing his payroll--but I sure don't want a repeat of a rotation of Deduno, DeVries, Albers, Corriea and any other garbage plucked from the dumpster as Ryan did before. I (and I believe most fans) have no interest in watching a team tank to 110 losses in order to save on payroll and hope that the 1st or 2nd player in the draft (rather than 3rd to 5th) will transform the Twins into a consistent winner. The Twins will lose plenty enough the next year or two to get good draft position without simply punting on the seasons.

 

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/ac/ac8e1baae8535062e99d1b02ad1d3c82b124ba3aa455a8ad1c1d33b166b79be5.jpg

 

Where did I advocate dumping him for salary relief? Total strawman. My whole post was about trading him for market value. He doesn't fit into the plan, so why not get something of value for him as his market value will never be higher? I never mentioned payroll or draft position once in my post. Go ahead, read it again. I'm waiting...

 

EDIT: I should also mention that I wasn't claiming that anybody was advocating for a king's ransom for Santana, merely that situations like this we shouldn't get hung up on returns- "player x isn't going to net us y, so I'd rather keep x." X just isn't that valuable to us right now, I'd like y, but z is ok because eventually x is going to be of 0 value when it matters.

Edited July 27, 2016 by d-mac

[clone52]

 

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/ac/ac8e1baae8535062e99d1b02ad1d3c82b124ba3aa455a8ad1c1d33b166b79be5.jpg

 

Where did I advocate dumping him for salary relief? Total strawman. My whole post was about trading him for market value. He doesn't fit into the plan, so why not get something of value for him as his market value will never be higher? I never mentioned payroll or draft position once in my post. Go ahead, read it again. I'm waiting...

 

What is "market value" for a trade?  Its whatever teams are willing to offer you.  If Antony gets 10 trade offers for a 23 year old in A ball, thats market value, but Antony shouldn't trade him for that.

 

If you look at the rotation next year, it should be Gibson, Duffey, Berrios and 2 other guys.  I think you should dump Nolasco and Milone and fill those last to spots with Santana and May or some other young guy.

 

However, if they get an offer for for a minor league P that would be Top 10 in the minor league system, or a controllable major league catcher, I'd be up for it.

 

Or how about this idea something like this as framework for a deal?  Santana, Kohl Stewart + filler for Profar + filler?

[Mike Sixel]

Where does Profar play, in your scenario? Profar is a FA in 2020 (that might be after 2020, so maybe 4 years), so you'd only control him for 3 (or 4) years. I don't think I'd do that deal.....but I'd think about it to be sure.

 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

I will give four to one odds that short of paying all but 2.5 million of his salary and getting very little in return, the deadline comes and goes without a Nolasco trade.

I'm trying to work out the arbitrage situation here. If I offer to pay the team's remaining salary obligation on this hypothetical Nolasco deal, and put down $700K on your action, I'll come out ahead, right?

[clone52]

 

Where does Profar play, in your scenario? Profar is a FA in 2020 (that might be after 2020, so maybe 4 years), so you'd only control him for 3 (or 4) years. I don't think I'd do that deal.....but I'd think about it to be sure.

 

Jurickson Profar would be a 3 year guy.  He can play all over, but for the Twins, he would be their starting SS, a huge position of need.  Not sure he'd be a guy looking to sign an extension that bought out his first FA year but I'm guessing probably not.

 

The Twins could actually help out the Ranges a lot this year and the Rangers have stuff the Twins might want.

 

The Rangers could use SP (lots of injuries) and RP (worst ERA in American League) help.

The Rangers have not gotten much production from the Catcher.

With Prince Fielder out, they could use some POP at DH and offensive production.

If they trade Profar, the definitely need a utility IF and DH help.

 

So what if the Twins offered Santana, Suzuki, Nunez or Escobar, Stewart or another of their top SP prospects and maybe Abad/Kintzler for Profar and a lower end minor leaguer or 2?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Jurickson Profar would be a 3 year guy.  He can play all over, but for the Twins, he would be their starting SS, a huge position of need.  Not sure he'd be a guy looking to sign an extension that bought out his first FA year but I'm guessing probably not.

 

The Twins could actually help out the Ranges a lot this year and the Rangers have stuff the Twins might want.

 

The Rangers could use SP (lots of injuries) and RP (worst ERA in American League) help.

The Rangers have not gotten much production from the Catcher.

With Prince Fielder out, they could use some POP at DH and offensive production.

If they trade Profar, the definitely need a utility IF and DH help.

 

So what if the Twins offered Santana, Suzuki, Nunez or Escobar, Stewart or another of their top SP prospects and maybe Abad/Kintzler for Profar and a lower end minor leaguer or 2?

 

That seems like an awful lot to give up for 1 SS who is good, but not great right now....doesn't it? I don't understand why the Twins do that.

 

Profar does not make them a contender next year....so you are giving up a top end SP prospect for 2 years of a SS (when you have Nick Gordon in the minors).....

[Major League Ready]

I think you guys are getting too hung up on "trade value".  I am in the camp that you don't trade Santana for whatever you can get.  If they can get a piece that will make a significant contribution going forward (however you want to quantify significant) I think you trade him.  To only trade him if you get blown away does not make sense to me either.  History or the odds if you prefer suggest the final couple years are decline years and then you got nothing and have 14M/yr wrapped up in a non-contributor that could have been spent on a contributor.   This is all just another way of saying it depends on the return and let's flip the guy likely to be in decline when we are finally contending again.