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Article: To Tank Or Not To Tank?


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After getting off to the worst start in franchise history, the Twins appear to be turning things around this month, but is that something fans should be excited about? It seems like a crazy question, but when you look at the big picture could it be in the best interest of the team's future to tank the rest of the season?In MLB there is nothing but incentive to tanking a season. The worse your record is the higher up you draft and the bigger your allotted bonus pool is to divvy out to those picks. Same deal with international spending, the worse you do the more money you can spend without incurring penalties.

 

And it's not like these are small margins. The Phillies, who were the worst team in baseball last year, had over $4 million more to spend in the draft (per MLB.com) and over $1.5 million to spend on the international market (per Baseball America) than the Brewers, who were the 5th-worst team last season. The moral of the story is if you're going to be terrible it pays off to be the worst.

 

With the 2016 season already sunk, is there any reason to root for the Twins to turn things around? Personally, I'm not so sure, and the team's performance over its last 15 games has me feeling conflicted.

 

Beginning with their 17-5 rout of the Rangers on July 2, the Twins are 10-5 and have outscored their opponents 94-53. The pitching staff hasn't given up more than 6 runs in any game over that stretch, and the offense is clicking after a number of personnel changes. Max Kepler and Brian Dozier have been two of the best hitters in baseball over that stretch and the pitching staff has the fourth-lowest ERA (3.23) this month.

 

In a lost season, you're put in an awkward position as a fan. Rooting against your own team seems like a rotten, unthinkable thing to do, but tanking may be the best thing for the future. But how does a team tank? You're never going to get the manager, coaches or any of the players behind the idea of giving away games. I suppose a massive, roster-crippling fire sale could do the trick.

 

On the other hand, if the team keeps performing well it's certainly possible that a strong finish to 2016 could carry over. A positive finish to the season could make the long winter seem a little brighter and is only going to help the team attract free agents, if that's the route the new GM decides to take to improving the roster. Nobody is going to want to sign with the worst team in the league.

 

Speaking of the new GM, could the way the Twins perform over the next two months also have an influence over what kind of candidates would be interested in the job? And if that's the case, which would be more attractive to the future GM: a young team on the upswing or the No. 1 pick in the draft? It's definitely something to keep in mind.

 

What do you think? Would you rather see the Twins tank, or end on a high note?

 

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I do not want to see the Twins tank. I want to see them trade/ release players that would allow Polanco, Shaggy, Melotonkis (sp?) Berries up and playing regularly by August 1. If that means that Dozier gets traded and Nunez stays I am good with that. I am also good if both get traded. When rosters expand I would like to see Wheeler, Murphy, Park and maybe Jake Reed up playing with the club.

I really don't want to see them tank. Give the kids a chance and let the chips fall where they may. Some may think I am splitting hairs but I am not. I would rather cheer for the young guys to win then for aging veterens to lose.

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Ah, the Gen. Patton question: "To tank? Or not to tank?"

 

While little has gone right for the Twins this season, I'm enjoying the recent spell of good baseball and want it to continue. Last night's 2-1 win over the Bosox was fun and compelling and a nifty bounceback to the previous game's shellacking. Fans are hungry for more of that right now, not some chimerical future time.

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The remainder of 2016 is all about 2018 and there after.

 

Trade any asset (for good value) that will not be around in 2020.

 

Nunez, E. Santana, and Suzuki need to be traded.

 

Dozier needs to be traded if the return is very good.

 

Unfortunately Mauer cannot be traded (no trade clause and Twins won't eat that much money). 

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I am curious what next years draft class is looking like at this point?  Any Bryce Harpers out there or are we looking at a likely top 3-5 that are interchangeable?

 

Either way, I don't really want to see the team tank but I am hopeful they will sell off a few veteran pieces to bolster the farm system even further and possibly open up a little cash for future seasons.  

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Neither.

 

Still debatable in my mind to keep Santana vs keeping him to help stabilize next year. (Or trade in the offseason after teams begin their re-set) Same with the younger Dozier. Nolasco, Milton, Plouffe, Suzuki and probably Kinzler and Abad should all go.

 

Otherwise, keep doing what you are doing on the field, promote the youngsters up to take the places of those traded. Bring up more in September. We're building for 2017 now.

 

Win or tank as the end result is not the point IMO. It's all about experience and building up the kids.

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The remainder of 2016 is all about 2018 and there after.

This sums it up for me, and many of the presumed pieces for the future are already in place. They should play.

 

If they do well, the 2016 team will win some games. Maybe not at a .500 pace, but not bad enough to accomplish tanking.

 

If they do badly, this team has worse troubles than a slightly higher draft pick next June can fix.

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To me, tanking means dumping productive veterans to ensure draft picks. There is no reason to "tank'. I would only trade/DFA players that are unproductive and/or blocking prospects (Nolasco, Plouffe, Millone, D. Santana). 

 

There are only three players who could legitimately be on the Twins roster right now: Berrios, Chargois and Polanco. There's room for the pitchers without dumping productive players. Polanco can be called up in September.

 

Be patient trading productive veterans and get good value for them (E. Santana, Dozier, Nunez/Escobar, Suzuki, Grossman).  There is no catcher to replace Suzuki this year and Grossman is a better fit for part-time OF than any prospect. Dozier is the team leader, a productive player and he has a reasonable contract. All of these players require some value in return. They can remain at least until the offseason. Santana and Nunez are the best options for a meaningful deadline trade.

 

The current starting OF averages 23 years old. Add Sano (23), Vargas (25) and Escobar (27) and you already have a really young lineup. Baseball is more craft than art. I'd rather see a few productive veterans on the club while these youngsters develop.

 

Polanco, Palka, Hildenberger, Wheeler and Beresford can all get some MLB time in September.

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Ah, the Gen. Patton question: "To tank? Or not to tank?"

 

While little has gone right for the Twins this season, I'm enjoying the recent spell of good baseball and want it to continue. Last night's 2-1 win over the Bosox was fun and compelling and a nifty bounceback to the previous game's shellacking. Fans are hungry for more of that right now, not some chimerical future time.

That was a fun win. Hopefully that performance will help Gibby turn the corner. To me, he's is one of the more important players to the Twins future, as he isn't a free agent until 2020.

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I am curious what next years draft class is looking like at this point?  Any Bryce Harpers out there or are we looking at a likely top 3-5 that are interchangeable?

 

Either way, I don't really want to see the team tank but I am hopeful they will sell off a few veteran pieces to bolster the farm system even further and possibly open up a little cash for future seasons.  

 

I've only glanced through some 2017 draft coverage, but it doesn't look like there's an automatic 1st pick.

But, even picking as high as they have recently, the Twins have missed out on the opportunity to draft the likes of Carlos Correa , Kris Bryant, Carlos Rodon and Kyle Schwarber, just to cherry pick the big names with MLB experience.

It's certainly possible the team would've still taken Buxton, Stewart and Gordon over those guys in their respective drafts anyway (and it's still way too early to make conclusions on any of those players yet) but it's always nice to have your pick of the litter, even when there's not an obvious choice at No. 1 overall.

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I don't think or expect the team to try and lose games, but there are some big picture management/gm type decisions that are beneficial in the long term at the expense of winning now, and I'm all for those changes...

 

That means bringing up and playing the kids and getting them that MLB experience.  Many will struggle, and likely be as bad or worse than some of the guys they replace.  I would expect drop offs from the following trades:

  • Dozier
  • Abad
  • Kintzler
  • E. Santana (if he's traded)
  • Milone/Nolasco

Not tanking per say, but I doubt Polanco, Chargois, Melotakis, Berrios match the first four on the list and I'm not sure May/Wheeler can out produce Milone and Nolasco (at least initially, though these two are the ones most likely to be out produced), especially if May needs to get stretched out again. 

 

Long term, with the exception of Polanco, I think all are locks to eventually be better than those guys.  Polanco might be (the potential is there) with Dozier, but I don't think it's fair to expect an .800 OPS with good defense.

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I've only glanced through some 2017 draft coverage, but it doesn't look like there's an automatic 1st pick.

But, even picking as high as they have recently, the Twins have missed out on the opportunity to draft the likes of Carlos Correa , Kris Bryant, Carlos Rodon and Kyle Schwarber, just to cherry pick the big names with MLB experience.

It's certainly possible the team would've still taken Buxton, Stewart and Gordon over those guys in their respective drafts anyway (and it's still way too early to make conclusions on any of those players yet) but it's always nice to have your pick of the litter, even when there's not an obvious choice at No. 1 overall.

 

Actually, from what I've read, 2017 is supposed to deep with a couple of impacts at the top.  It's a bit too early to say in that respect. Unfortunately, we won't have a good idea on 2017 until next May or so.

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Neither.

Still debatable in my mind to keep Santana vs keeping him to help stabilize next year. (Or trade in the offseason after teams begin their re-set) Same with the younger Dozier. Nolasco, Milton, Plouffe, Suzuki and probably Kinzler and Abad should all go.

Otherwise, keep doing what you are doing on the field, promote the youngsters up to take the places of those traded. Bring up more in September. We're building for 2017 now.

Win or tank as the end result is not the point IMO. It's all about experience and building up the kids.

I've been struggling with Santana as well. Two more years of Erv is looking very attractive right now The rotation is still the biggest weakness in my eyes, so it doesn't seem smart to thin out that group even further.

 

On the other hand, I do worry about him breaking down. He's 33 and has a lot of mileage on that arm. Would be a shame if he falls off and the team missed out on an opportunity to trade him at his peak.

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"Tanking"? If you mean playing to lose (which has happened in other sports), I don't think you can pull it off. But, if key veterns are traded (or benched) to play "prospects" then the Twins might lose like crazy (see '11). The net effect is he same (if they lose)--but then there is the possibility that they win like crazy! Some opponents won't care all that much, the "prospects" are super motivated, and opponents haven't learned the players weaknesses yet. In short, a youth movement could go in any direction--even if losing in '16 was the desired end result.

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Tanking is hard in baseball, unless you bring up players that are no good.  Players have too much to play for, money, spot on team, or playing time.  I agree they should trade away any player with any value, as long as deal is fair, and we feel that player is not going to help down road or no replacement to call up.  

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I am curious what next years draft class is looking like at this point?  Any Bryce Harpers out there or are we looking at a likely top 3-5 that are interchangeable?

 

Either way, I don't really want to see the team tank but I am hopeful they will sell off a few veteran pieces to bolster the farm system even further and possibly open up a little cash for future seasons.  

 

As someone else mentioned, there doesn't appear to be a player locked into the number one spot, although it's still really early. As long as the Twins are choosing in the top five (or even ten this year), which they certainly will, they'll come away with a really good prospect.

 

A few college catchers are currently expected to go very early, which would be nice. There's also a HS shortstop in Florida who is only 16. He'll be 17 when the draft rolls around. Tall and lanky, I've read, with some pop in his bat and the athleticism to stick at the position. Has a nice swing. Can't have to many quality SS prospects. Vanderbilt's CF seems really good, as well. There are also a few college pitchers getting top-ten buzz, although I like the strategy of taking hitters early, myself. Of course, it's still really early, and some of these guys will fall off the map while others rocket up.

 

Given the depth of really, really good prospects in the upcoming draft, I see no reason why the Twins wouldn't want to win as many remaining games as possible.

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Go young and try to win. Establish a winning attitude. Immediately if not sooner. Draft picks are extremely overrated, especially high schoolers in the first round. Win. That's what you are in this for. New blood, new GM, new attitude. Now.

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I have not watched a single game the Colts have played since the "suck for Luck" thing and I in no way believe that the players were any part of that.

 

Play the best you have and see what happens. If the players tank GET RID OF THEM!!!!!

Edited by Bill Brown69
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Provisional Member

I am of the opinion to tank and tank hard. Mediocrity is so dangerous and to think any late season momentum carries over to next year is silly. Being horrendous has so many possitives attached to it. For instance, being so putrid FINALLY dislodged TR from the gm seat. Being ratty will give us our (hopefully) last super high draft pick. It will increase pool money, it brings about change. If youre going to do something, do it really great or really horrible.

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There's good reason to tank in the NBA, less in hockey and football and essentially no reason at all to do so in baseball. You can win it all in the NBA with 3 really good players, and the draft is much more of a sure thing providing immediate benefit compared with other sports. That's why the NBA has a draft lottery and the other sports don't. Tanking in baseball for the purpose of the draft and so forth is pretty much pointless.

Edited by spinowner
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People keep talking about dumping guys has anybody realized the people talking about trading are not worth much of anything it's all a pipe dream that someone wants santana, nolasco, Plouffe , or Suzuki that's almost funny. There gonna tank on there own because we're truly like the days with rich Becker and Denny hocking.

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