Article: With TR Gone, Can We Trust The Braintrust?

[Nick Nelson]

When the Twins announced on Monday the stunning midseason dismissal of longtime general manager Terry Ryan, it was a promising signal to fans that the organization is taking its dismal state of affairs very seriously.

 

Unfortunately, that optimism quickly faded once the franchise's remaining top decision-makers began speaking about what's coming next.The problem with removing the GM is that the Twins have lacked foresight to lay the groundwork for such an eventuality.

 

They never surrounded Ryan with new blood, so each of the internal replacement candidates is entrenched in the organizational culture, and to some extent a student of Ryan. The line of succession is stale.

 

They did not replace their team president with a baseball man, so the executive who has the final say on the matter (outside of the owners) remains Dave St. Peter, an individual who inspires little confidence as an evaluator.

 

By his own admission, St. Peter tries to stick to the business side – "we believe strongly that we should let the baseball people make baseball decisions" – but now the top baseball person is gone, and so the responsibility of finding a new general manager falls on decidedly non-baseball people: St. Peter and the ownership. Yes, the same ownership that stays connected from afar, and lacks much knowledge of how teams around the league operate.

 

To reinforce this reality, Jim Pohlad said at a press conference on Monday that he was brushing up on how other front offices are structured by reading their media guides. He also stated that his foremost requirement for a new candidate was that he be "lovable."

 

Given his success in the business world, and the amount of time he has been involved with running a sports franchise, it is almost inconceivable to me that Pohlad would be tone deaf enough not to foresee how these public comments would be perceived by fans, media and basically everyone... but here we are.

 

The rhetoric from St. Peter and the Pohlads makes it difficult to have faith in their aptitude to choose the right person for the job. So does their history. The last time Ryan departed as GM, the same group tabbed Bill Smith as his replacement, and the outcome was brutal.

 

The possibility of keeping on Rob Antony isn't popular, both because of of the Smith experience and because of Minnesota's history of insularity, but it shouldn't be written off quite so hastily. While he has delivered some troubling quotes in the past, that was a long time ago.

 

In my interactions with him, Antony has always come off as being sharp and knowledgeable. He has considerable experience negotiating contracts, and knows the system here inside and out. While this is speculative, I suspect Antony would be more open to the influence of stats guru Jack Goin than was Ryan, a grizzled scout. Perhaps Antony would even push for an expansion of the analytics department. Who knows. The point is: just because he learned under TR does not mean he's the same guy.

 

But hiring Antony without conducting an extensive outside search would be outrageous and unacceptable. Pohlad indicated that the Twins "might" bring in a search firm for assistance, and that's only another reason to hold extreme skepticism toward their approach. Enlisting outside help in this process should be an absolute no-brainer. When you're hedging on that and talking about how you're looking for a lovable guy, how can anyone really believe that this monumentally important task is being treated with the proper gravity?

 

If they want to parlay this pivotal decision into feelings of hope and enthusiasm amongst fans desperate for a positive change in direction, the people running the show at Target Field need to start saying and doing the right things. So far, they are failing.

 

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[operation mindcrime]

After reading this article a part of me almost wants T.R. to return. Lord help us!

[Taildragger8791]

Well, if you were looking for confidence that Mr. Pohlad had the right priorities...this isn't what you were looking for:

 

https://twitter.com/MinnPost/status/755447331496001536

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nothing wrong with asking for someone who actually cares about people, especially when your product is people. That doesn't bother me. Competent though... Kind of what that too. All of a sudden we get to see how much of this mess is on ownership, and ownership appears to be unable to understand. If ownership doesn't understand their contribution to total system failure, then we're unfortunately going to see more total system failure.

[troyhobbs]

No viable candidate is going to want to work for Pohlad/St. Peter with the requirement to keep Molitor as the skipper etc. Antony is your GM for next year and beyond. I doubt many of us will be impressed.

[mazeville]

I certainly wouldn't buy all that much into the "lovable" comment, which was likely a weird effort at a joke. 

 

I have no problem with Dave St. Peter playing a role in the search, nor with them using a search firm. Just because Dave isn't a "baseball person" doesn't mean he'll do a bad job hiring one. 

 

A search firm could also bring in a little more credibility in the process. So I'm OK with that.

 

I would not be OK with Antony. This team just badly needs an outside voice.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In my interactions with him, Antony has always come off as being sharp and knowledgeable. He has considerable experience negotiating contracts, and knows the system here inside and out. While this is speculative, I suspect Antony would be more open to the influence of stats guru Jack Goin than was Ryan, a grizzled scout. Perhaps Antony would even push for an expansion of the analytics department. Who knows. The point is: just because he learned under TR does not mean he's the same guy.

I think the key statement here is "who knows?"  Sure, Antony might operate differently/better than TR and Smith before him, but there is zero evidence of that.  Listening more to Goin and expanding his department isn't even necessarily a good thing -- do we have any idea whether Goin himself is actually fit for his position in modern MLB?  I want a new GM who can look critically at the work of Goin too.

 

And it's not as if Antony hasn't had a chance to provide such evidence -- he's been a respected assistant GM for 9 years, with a fairly public profile and a broad base of duties (including a stint as acting GM).  If he was really a viable MLB GM candidate right now, he has had ample opportunity to articulate a better case than "good at negotiating contracts" and "listens to Jack Goin more."

 

Unless he somehow shows he is a mystical "GM whisperer" over the next two months who can extract top prospects in return for our marginal assets, there would be absolutely no justification for hiring Rob Antony as the next Twins permanent GM in 2016, exhaustive external search or not.  Antony could say the exact same thing in his interviews as the best external candidate and it still wouldn't matter -- Antony just doesn't have any record to back it up (setting aside the obvious Melania Trump concerns over him saying the exact same thing as someone else ).

Edited July 20, 2016 by spycake

[jimmer]

Has Antony ever even been mentioned in an article about interesting GM candidates, or assistant GMs teams covet, or anything like that?  I, personally, have never seen him in any article saying this is a guy teams should be targeting for open GM spots. 

[tobi0040]

I don’t know that we have any proof that Jim Pohlad has had a successful business career. We know that his Dad was a self made billionaire and he passed away in 2009. As a part of that, Jim has basically taken over the baseball franchise during a time when it has failed spectacularly.

 

Jim was also put in charge of some portion of the family business, but we really have no read on how they did under his control. Based on everything I have seen with the Twins, I find it almost impossible to believe the guy would have had a successful business career without getting things handed to him. Giving St. Peter a say in the GM, learning through media guides, leaving Terry here so long, meddling in the decisions at the same time you are trying to attract a new GM…..these are not the kind of traits successful people have.

[Jeff A]

If the main requirement for the new GM is that he be lovable, I'd like to suggest T. C. Bear.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hmm... not sure I want to start a new thread on this, but read this gem this morning on MILB.  A few parallels here, especially if Texas is selling low on Profar and Gallo.  Those are the types of moves TR would have been all over.  Sounds like it is as bad for Texas fans right now as Twins fans.

[Everyday Eddy]

It's laughable how St. Peter says whatever he can to keep his name out of the baseball part of the club...    Genius actually,    but I'm sure he'll be the first to take credit whenever the winning starts up again   

[tobi0040]

It's laughable how St. Peter says whatever he can to keep his name out of the baseball part of the club...    Genius actually,    but I'm sure he'll be the first to take credit whenever the winning starts up again

But at the same time people here seem to buy it. It seems like it is generally accepted that he has a role in hiring the GM AND doens't have any say in baseball matters. I can't square this circle.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Has Antony ever even been mentioned in an article about interesting GM candidates, or assistant GMs teams covet, or anything like that?  I, personally, have never seen him in any article saying this is a guy teams should be targeting for open GM spots. 

I think you are correct.  His only mentions at MLB Trade Rumors are in regards to the Twins, dating back to 2008:

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=site:mlbtraderumors.com+%22rob+antony%22

[TheLeviathan]

No more or less than before is my response to the question.

 

Surprise me again Twins, that's all I can hope for.

[troyhobbs]

Here are a couple encouraging reports from mlbtraderumors this morning that could soon give us an indication about what Antony has up his sleeve...

 

The Twins are receiving the most trade interest in shortstop Eduardo Nunez, catcher Kurt Suzuki, right-hander Brandon Kintzler and left-hander Fernando Abad, sources indicated to Rosenthal. Right-hander Ervin Santana has not drawn the same level of interest, likely due to the $28MM remaining on his contract beyond the 2016 campaign.

 

Regarding Suzuki,....there have been no extension talks at all between the two sides this time around. That would seemingly make a trade more likely

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hmm... not sure I want to start a new thread on this, but read this gem this morning on MILB.  A few parallels here, especially if Texas is selling low on Profar and Gallo.  Those are the types of moves TR would have been all over.  Sounds like it is as bad for Texas fans right now as Twins fans.

Texas isn't selling low enough on either to involve the Twins.  They are likely talking Odorizzi, Archer, Lucroy:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/rangers-receiving-interest-jurickson-profar-trade-rumors.html

 

Also, both are no longer elite prospects.  Thanks to collecting MLB service time while on the DL the past few years, Profar only has 3 years of control left, and his good small sample batting line has been buoyed by an out-of-character .369 BABIP.  And Gallo has begun slipping in prospect rankings, not only for his suspect MLB debut of 85 wRC+, but also his modest 119 wRC+ in AAA.  Turning them into the right reinforcements for a 2016 pennant race, and for 2017 too, might be the smart play.

 

Texas also leads their division by 4.5 games so it's hardly that bad for their fans right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Regarding Suzuki,....there have been no extension talks at all between the two sides this time around. That would seemingly make a trade more likely

Why would there be extension talks for Suzuki?  We apparently hold an option on his services for 2017.

Edited July 20, 2016 by spycake

[troyhobbs]

 

Why would there be extension talks for Suzuki?  We apparently hold an option on his services for 2017.

I'm not sure exactly how that vested option of his works, that's just what the report said....

[Vanimal46]

I have no reason to feel this way, but I'm confident that Antony is not going to be anything more than an interim GM. Would I trust the braintrust to conduct their own search and interview process to find the next GM? No. You may think search firms are a racket, but I believe using one is critical for an important hire like this. Let's use a neutral third party resource to identify 4-5 quality candidates, and use their expertise to create a process for selecting the best person for the role. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Here are a couple encouraging reports from mlbtraderumors this morning that could soon give us an indication about what Antony has up his sleeve...

 

The Twins are receiving the most trade interest in shortstop Eduardo Nunez, catcher Kurt Suzuki, right-hander Brandon Kintzler and left-hander Fernando Abad, sources indicated to Rosenthal. Right-hander Ervin Santana has not drawn the same level of interest, likely due to the $28MM remaining on his contract beyond the 2016 campaign.

 

Regarding Suzuki,....there have been no extension talks at all between the two sides this time around. That would seemingly make a trade more likely

 

This doesn't really surprise me.  Really curious what they could get for these guys. Not expecting much in Abad/Kintzler, but that opens up spots for Melotakis/Chargois.  Honestly, that's probably more a win than anything as these guys need experience and could have a bright future.

[HitInAPinch]

Day 1 of the Interim GM job for Rob Antony. 

 

Strib interview with Antony:

http://www.startribune.com/interim-gm-rob-antony-ponders-future-fixes-for-twins/387547541/

 

It's about what you'd expect from a guy with >1 day on the job.

 

For fun, I tried to locate a list of potential outside GM candidates.  Here's one from 2014, and at least one in now a GM:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23978

 

And another from a couple days ago, with some good selling points:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/despite-poor-2016-the-twins-gm-is-a-desirable-job-and-here-are-some-candidates/

 

I'm not in a speculative mood, but based on how things have been run in the past, I'd probably take a hard look at outside candidates.  Change can be good.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I have no reason to feel this way, but I'm confident that Antony is not going to be anything more than an interim GM. Would I trust the braintrust to conduct their own search and interview process to find the next GM? No. You may think search firms are a racket, but I believe using one is critical for an important hire like this. Let's use a neutral third party resource to identify 4-5 quality candidates, and use their expertise to create a process for selecting the best person for the role. 

 

I think (hope?) you're correct here. Antony hasn't done much to impress me to be honest.  My biggest concern is that he's going to be more of a bill smith guy with the trades coming up. You may not like the value we get back. Hopefully, he's smart enough to rely on his scouts/analytics here.

[howieramone2]

 

Here are a couple encouraging reports from mlbtraderumors this morning that could soon give us an indication about what Antony has up his sleeve...

 

The Twins are receiving the most trade interest in shortstop Eduardo Nunez, catcher Kurt Suzuki, right-hander Brandon Kintzler and left-hander Fernando Abad, sources indicated to Rosenthal. Right-hander Ervin Santana has not drawn the same level of interest, likely due to the $28MM remaining on his contract beyond the 2016 campaign.

 

Regarding Suzuki,....there have been no extension talks at all between the two sides this time around. That would seemingly make a trade more likely

Interesting. All 4 are board scapegoats.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Day 1 of the Interim GM job for Rob Antony. 

 

Strib interview with Antony:

http://www.startribune.com/interim-gm-rob-antony-ponders-future-fixes-for-twins/387547541/

 

It's about what you'd expect from a guy with >1 day on the job.

 

For fun, I tried to locate a list of potential outside GM candidates.  Here's one from 2014, and at least one in now a GM:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23978

 

And another from a couple days ago, with some good selling points:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/despite-poor-2016-the-twins-gm-is-a-desirable-job-and-here-are-some-candidates/

 

I'm not in a speculative mood, but based on how things have been run in the past, I'd probably take a hard look at outside candidates.  Change can be good.

 

For the most part, he said the right things in his strib interview. I just hope he's willing to take a long hard look at that perception that he's not convinced is true.

[howieramone2]

 

I don’t know that we have any proof that Jim Pohlad has had a successful business career. We know that his Dad was a self made billionaire and he passed away in 2009. As a part of that, Jim has basically taken over the baseball franchise during a time when it has failed spectacularly.

Jim was also put in charge of some portion of the family business, but we really have no read on how they did under his control. Based on everything I have seen with the Twins, I find it almost impossible to believe the guy would have had a successful business career without getting things handed to him. Giving St. Peter a say in the GM, learning through media guides, leaving Terry here so long, meddling in the decisions at the same time you are trying to attract a new GM…..these are not the kind of traits successful people have.

When you have 4.2 billion in the bank, that minimizes the need to have traits successful people have.

[Mike Sixel]

I share Nick's low expectations for of this leadership team. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Interesting. All 4 are board scapegoats.

 

No, not really.  All four have been identified as people most on this board want to trade.  Nunez is probably the only one that I'd rather keep, but even that would be an exception if the right offer came along.  All four also have the advantage of being on short deals. All four are also blocking guys in the high minors (OK, maybe not Suzuki) who look like they could be decent future pieces.

[bird]

 

I don’t know that we have any proof that Jim Pohlad has had a successful business career. We know that his Dad was a self made billionaire and he passed away in 2009. As a part of that, Jim has basically taken over the baseball franchise during a time when it has failed spectacularly.

Jim was also put in charge of some portion of the family business, but we really have no read on how they did under his control. Based on everything I have seen with the Twins, I find it almost impossible to believe the guy would have had a successful business career without getting things handed to him. Giving St. Peter a say in the GM, learning through media guides, leaving Terry here so long, meddling in the decisions at the same time you are trying to attract a new GM…..these are not the kind of traits successful people have.

 

 

I think this is a bit unfair. Jim Pohlad has put on a business suit and gone to work early almost every morning since before a lot of people on TD were born. Obviously, he has had enormous advantages in life and in business. But he's not just showing up and treating Pohlad Companies and the Twins like they are some unappreciated toy. Jim Pohlad I think can be described as somewhat socially and interpersonally awkward, but that shouldn't cause us to unkindly paint him as either uncaring or inept, although it's understandable since he clearly invites criticism. He can actually be kind of engaging in person, self-deprecating, a little sarcastic even. I hate to see anyone demonized, even if they're guilty of saying some pretty stupid things.

[Mike Sixel]

That STrib interview is actually quite good.....