Article: It's Time!

[d-mac]

 

makes more sense, if you read the quote I was quoting when  I wrote that.  Or maybe it won't :-)

 

Comparing Dozier to Bryant is like comparing apples to an Apple iPhone. Sure, they may have "apple" in their name, but it's not exactly the same thing. 

[jimmer]

 

Comparing Dozier to Bryant is like comparing apples to an Apple iPhone. Sure, they may have "apple" in their name, but it's not exactly the same thing. 

It was about the age thing when drafted part having some sort of meaning...that's it.  If you feel like it didn't make sense, that's fine.  Doesn't matter.

[ashbury]

It was about the age thing when drafted part having some sort of meaning...that's it.  If you feel like it didn't make sense, that's fine.  Doesn't matter.

If you're saying age when drafted (or signed) has no meaning, and to just look at Dozier versus Bryant for proof, well, isn't it possible to have more than one thing have meaning, age AND talent for example?

 

Talent is what we seek, age provides the context for assessing the talent.

[jimmer]

 

If you're saying age when drafted (or signed) has no meaning, and to just look at Dozier versus Bryant for proof, well, isn't it possible to have more than one thing have meaning, age AND talent for example?

 

Talent is what we seek, age provides the context for assessing the talent.

Below is the quote I was responding to. I was apparently missing the point, so I guess my bad.

 

'Heres the funny thing.. slightly better.. Polanco made it to the MLB at 21, Dozier wasn't even drafted until he was just over 22 years old.'

 

Anyway, my post number on this one thing is extremely disproportionate to the amount I care about it.  :-)

[drivlikejehu]

hes hitting .309 with 35 stolen bases in AA and over his last 38 games he is hitting .369. Nothing special, most likely true... but he could easily end up being a starting Center fielder if he hits like this and he's young, 23. scouts have compared him to Burns which isn't too bad considering Burns had a 2.3 WAR last year..

Granite's AA numbers equate to a sub-700 OPS in the majors. He has limited power, so pitchers aren't afraid of him and he would draw few walks in MLB. Mediocre OBP, poor SLG . . . Fourth OF potential is there but 2.3 WAR, not likely.

[jsteve96]

 

I'm not sure you can compare their minor league numbers for many of the reasons mentioned here.  Context matters and they don't have much in common. That said, Dozier has shown the ability to be an elite hitter and above average defender at the major league level for long periods of time. While Polanco to be fair hasn't had the opportunity to do so, those types of players don't exactly grown on trees.

 

I think at the end of the day, trading Dozier is the right answer, especially with only 2 years left under contract, but I don't pretend to think that Polanco can walk in and out produce him in 2017. He may never put a season like Dozier.

Dozier has never had a season with an OPS better than .761 in MLB.. Thats easily doable for Polanco. I think Polanco is capable of an .800+ multiple years

[jsteve96]

 

Well, yeah, Dozier didn't get drafted till he was 22.  He went to college, like Kris Bryant (also drafted at age 22).  You think Polanco is better than Bryant too, based on how old he was when he was drafted?

no I dont, Bryant had an OPS over 1 at every level. I'm saying for their ages at their levels, Polanco is more impressive. Kris Bryant also made it to the MLB in 1.5 years.

[jimmer]

 

Dozier has never had a season with an OPS better than .761 in MLB.. Thats easily doable for Polanco. I think Polanco is capable of an .800+ multiple years

Now those are bold, bold statements.  Here's to hoping.

[d-mac]

I've thought about this for a bit now and here's how I'd go about things if I were the GM:

 

-I'd have called up Berrios and Chargois yesterday. Dump Ramirez. And I might consider sending Trevor May down to Rochester (if he has options left) to get stretched out as a starter. Move Nolasco, Milone, or Duffey to the pen to make room for Berrios.

 

-I'd work on trading Nunez ASAP. Then call up Polanco. Have him split time between 2nd, SS, and 3rd the rest of the season. 

 

-Trade Suzuki, sounds like there is some interest in him right now. Call up Murphy. Add Garver to 40 man.

 

-Trade Kintzler and Abad for whatever we can get. Call up Boshers, add Hildenberger to 40 man and call him up. 

 

-Trade Ervin Santana for best available package, eating salary is a must. Move Milone, Nolasco, or Duffey back to the rotation. Call up Melotakis. 

 

August: 

-Dump Nolasco for whatever we can get. Eat salary if we must. May should be stretched out by now. Recall him and insert into the rotation.

 

- Dump Milone for whatever we can get. Add Wheeler to 40 man- call him up, insert into ration.

 

- Dump Plouffe for whatever we can get. Add Beresford to 40 man. Call him up to be UTIL player.

 

End of August- If my math is right, there should be 33 players on the 40 man (38 today, removed 9 players, added 4. The rotation will be Duffey, Berrios, May, Gibson, Wheeler. C: Centeno/Murphy 1B: Mauer/Vargas/Sano 2B: Dozier/Polanco SS: Escobar/Polanco 3B: Sano/Polanco RF: Kepler/Grossman CF: Buxton/Santana LF: Rosario/Grossman DH:Vargas/Sano/Mauer/Grossman

 

SEPT:

-Call up Garver and Park on the 1st. 

 

-Add Granite, Wimmers, and Baxendale to 40 man and call them up. 

 

-Once MiLB season ends add Palka to 40 man, call him and Walker up. 

 

40 man at 37 players

 

Offseason: 

 

-Trade Dozier. Appears that 2B at the deadline is a buyer's market. With his two years of control left, offseason might be a better time to trade him.

 

-DFA Danny Santana. 

 

-Remove Dean from 40 man

 

-Centeno, Landa, R Rosario other candidates to be removed from 40 man. 

 

40 man at 32-35.

 

Tentative Roster for 2017 ST:

 

 C: Centeno/Murphy/Garver/FA?

1B: Mauer/Vargas/Park

2B: Polanco

SS: Escobar

3B: Sano

RF: Kepler/Grossman

CF: Buxton

LF: Rosario/Grossman

DH: Park/Vargas

 

Bench:

IF: Beresford

OF: Grossman/Granite?

Bat: Vargas/Park

Catcher #2

 

SP: Berrios

SP: Gibson

SP: May

SP Duffey

SP: Buy Low High Risk/Reward FA. (Wheeler in AAA, Hughes potential return in second half)

 

Bullpen: (Very Fluid)

CL/SU: Chargois

CL/SU: Hildenberger

CL/SU:Pressly

MR: Boshers

MR: Tonkin

MR: Melotakis

LOOGY: Rogers

 

In AAA:

 

Hitters: Murphy/Garver/Stuart, Vielma, Granite, Palka, Walker

 

Pitchers: Wheeler, Jay, Gonsalves, Slegers, Wimmers, Baxendale, Reed, Jones, Bard

[DocBauer]

Honestly, with further reflection on all matters, I think what the Twins should be doing is trading/cutting the obvious and then staying pat. The obvious moves are to be rid of Nolasco, Milone, Kinzler, Ramirez, Plouffe, D Santana and Suzuki. Get what you can, probably A ball players with some potential, eat salary that is already spent anyway, and just clear space.

 

These moves allow the team to instantly promote Berrios, Wheeler, Chargois, Wimmers (Boshers and Hildenberger are possibles), Polanco and Murphy as direct replacements. Promote as necessary to AAA, but especially include Garver, Granite and Hildenberger, plus probably Melotakis. (I've stated this before)

 

I can see arguements for and against trading Abad vs re-signing him, but I'm on the fence there but OK either way. What I would not do, unless offered something pretty darn nice that I'd be silly to refuse, is trade E Santana, Dozier or Nunez.

 

Why?

 

Santana provides a solid, decent, still relatively cost controlled veteran SP for 2017 to help fill and stabilize my staff which probably includes Gibson, Duffey, Berrios and either Wheeler or May. (Meyer and Hughes on the outside looking in for now) Despite some arguements to the contrary, there is no reason to expect Santana to suddenly decline dramaticly. He may have even greater trade value this time next season with only a year and a half remaining on his deal. Further, he could still be traded during the offseason once teams begin to set their rosters.

 

Dozier is good. Dozier is not old. We're still not 100% sure what we have in Polanco. (Twins own fault there) We are hedging our bets by keeping Dozier for now as Polanco auditions and gets experience. Perhaps he grows in to a full time slot gradually? I also feel the same about Dozier in trade value this time next year, or the offseason.

 

And I'd keep Nunez. And not just because he's having this great season. What if Sano gets hurt? While I fully believe in Sano playing 3B, and only getting better, what if you move him suddenly to 1B/DH? What if Polanco struggles, especially if you've traded Dozier already? What's wrong with Escobar, Dozief, Nunez and Polanco all opening 2017 as your starting middle infield and utility reserves?

 

And by not trading Santana or Dozier...at least now...you can audition Murphy, Polanco, Wheeler and a host of RP the remainder of the season, as well as how your other prospects finish AAA and AA, fairly assess their time table after a complete season and possible September audition, and then re-assess your top needs in the offseason and still look to move Santana and/or Dozier at that time.

[sthpstm]

Yes, let's trade Dozier for a decent return...

But someone needs to tell me what teams in the playoff hunt would give up something that would make you happy.  Royals? Doesn't strike me as likely. They need rotation help before anything else so unless they go big there they likely won't give up much to improve second. 

Bluejays? They're adequately staffed there at the moment, and possibly the future with Travis.

Sorry, but barring multiple injuries or other major issues on competitive teams, we likely won't have many suitors.

P.S. I would love to be wrong.

[amjgt]

If Berrios isn't up yet (and as of 1:07 CDT 7/20/16, that is the case), then I leave him down there until August 1st. It's a lost season and Jose could be making major league starts. I get that, but two more starts in AAA isn't going to change anything about his future. 

 

Waiting until Aug 1 allows Nolasco and Milone to get two more starts. We all want them gone, but none of us think we can get anything for them. I mostly agree, but if they pitch decent over those couple starts (like they did the last two games), then you might get a desperate team either willing to take on salary (mostly a Nolasco issue) and/or part with a lottery ticket prospect.

 

Benching them takes that possibility away.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If Berrios isn't up yet (and as of 1:07 CDT 7/20/16, that is the case), then I leave him down there until August 1st. It's a lost season and Jose could be making major league starts. I get that, but two more starts in AAA isn't going to change anything about his future. 

 

Waiting until Aug 1 allows Nolasco and Milone to get two more starts. We all want them gone, but none of us think we can get anything for them. I mostly agree, but if they pitch decent over those couple starts (like they did the last two games), then you might get a desperate team either willing to take on salary (mostly a Nolasco issue) and/or part with a lottery ticket prospect.

 

Benching them takes that possibility away.

 

Then, we can keep him down for another month while they try to do a waiver deal......there is always a reason he's not up here, none of them seem to be about the present or his future.

[tobi0040]

It was time on May 15th for Berrios and Chargios. Every day they are not promoted is confirmation that Rob Antony should not be the next GM.

[amjgt]

 

If Berrios isn't up yet (and as of 1:07 CDT 7/20/16, that is the case), then I leave him down there until August 1st. It's a lost season and Jose could be making major league starts. I get that, but two more starts in AAA isn't going to change anything about his future. 

 

Waiting until Aug 1 allows Nolasco and Milone to get two more starts. We all want them gone, but none of us think we can get anything for them. I mostly agree, but if they pitch decent over those couple starts (like they did the last two games), then you might get a desperate team either willing to take on salary (mostly a Nolasco issue) and/or part with a lottery ticket prospect.

 

Benching them takes that possibility away.

 

 

Then, we can keep him down for another month while they try to do a waiver deal......there is always a reason he's not up here, none of them seem to be about the present or his future.

 

I never would have sent Berrios down in the first place, but at this point, I'd wait out the 10 more days hoping upon hope that a few teams get desperate.

 

This is about what I would do. I'd wait 10 more days. 

 

If the Twins are of the mind to try to get value from Nolasco and Milone, would they keep Berrios down longer? I can't answer that.

Edited July 20, 2016 by amjgt

[Mike Sixel]

 

I never would have sent Berrios down in the first place, but at this point, I'd wait out the 10 more days hoping upon hope that a few teams get desperate.

 

This is about what I would do. I'd wait 10 more days. 

 

If the Twins are of the mind to try to get value from Nolasco and Milone, would they keep Berrios down longer? I can't answer that.

 

Fair.

 

i too would not have sent him down......

[bluechipper]

Next year's bench possibilities right now look like: Escobar, Santana, Grossman, Polanco, and then one of Vargas/Park, plus the catcher. 

 

Santana looks like the easy DFA candidate, and I'd be on board with trading one of Dozier/Nunez, preferably before the deadline in oreder to get Polanco some playing time. So basically what I'm saying is some moves need to be made.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Dozier has never had a season with an OPS better than .761 in MLB.. Thats easily doable for Polanco. I think Polanco is capable of an .800+ multiple years

 

True, but he has gone long stretches with OPS over .800 (and to date has one I might add).  Granted the slumps count to, though some of that is explainable.  I think Polanco can be a good player.  I don't think it's a given he will be better than Dozier. I do think he can be an above average 2B, which is why I trade BD every day.  2 more years, even if BD puts up a .900 OPS while playing GG defense, and then he's an FA taking the highest dollar and entering his decline... right when the team is entering its prime.  Makes little sense to keep him. 

[Tomj14]

 

Tentative Roster for 2017 ST:

 

C: Centeno/Murphy/Garver/FA?

1B: Mauer/Vargas/Park

2B: Polanco

SS: Escobar

3B: Sano

RF: Kepler/Grossman

CF: Buxton

LF: Rosario/Grossman

DH: Park/Vargas

 

Bench:

IF: Beresford

OF: Grossman/Granite?

Bat: Vargas/Park

Catcher #2

 

SP: Berrios

SP: Gibson

SP: May

SP Duffey

SP: Buy Low High Risk/Reward FA. (Wheeler in AAA, Hughes potential return in second half)

 

Bullpen: (Very Fluid)

CL/SU: Chargois

CL/SU: Hildenberger

CL/SU:Pressly

MR: Boshers

MR: Tonkin

MR: Melotakis

LOOGY: Rogers

 

Going into 2017 with this team you are giving up on another year. It is loaded with guys that strikeout out and don't really get on base. It is kind setup up like this years lineup. (I can't even come up with a major league lineup with that group)You are basically gambling on all 9 positions and expecting at minimum league average from guys that have never really done that. On top of that the bench is terrible.

Same with the bullpen, nobody in that Pen has really ever had any real major league success.

 

I like all are young prospects but I don't think you can run out a full team of them at the major league level and win.

 

Looks like 2017 will be more of the same as 2016.

 

I am not trying to insult you, I guess I am saying sucks for us Twins fans!

 

[mlhouse]

The time was weeks ago.  

 

Berrios and Chargois are no brainers.  So is Hildenberger to tell you the truth because he is already 25 years old.

 

Polanco is a no-brainer but you need to have a plan on how to play him.  I would use him as a utility guy that plays almost every day.  His future is 2B, but give him time at SS and 3B too.  That experience might pay dividends down the road.

 

Mitch Garver needs to be brought up right now.  Make whatever roster moves need to be done and install him as the starting catcher.  Like Hildenberger, he is already 25 years old.  Bringing him up aint rushing anything.  

 

At the same time, I would bring up Stuart Turner.  He might not be able to hit much but his defense should be more than adequate as the backup catcher.  I would play Garver 2/3 of the time as the catcher and give him games as the DH if he is hitting and play Turner the remainder of the games.

 

Let these guys play and get experience at the big league level.  We might not win a game the rest of the year, but what is the big deal.  Why continue to lose playing replacement level journeymen and delay the rebuilding process.

 

Then, next season, a total committment needs to be made to youth like the Twins did in 1982.  We might lose another 100 games but if we can get these guys the expereince in the ML lineup they might develop like the 87 Twins squad.  Takes time, but the time is now.

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Can anyone explain to me, please, why Neil Ramirez is in the Twins roster today, over any of the relievers mentioned (or not mentioned) above?

 

And please could the explanation reflect some opinion about the person who put him and the person who kept him on that roster?

 

Thank you.

Simple.  Because it is very likely a couple players will be traded in the next ten days and that will open spots for them.  I don't think much of Ramirez but he might be needed for awhile if Kinzler or Abad or both are traded.  Chargois moves up to the ML club and Hildenberger goes to AAA.  If Abad and Kinzler get traded, Chargois and one of the others mentioned get moved up.  It just does not make sense to debut guys right now when the landscape will be considerably more clear in 10 days.

 

Plus ... Ramirez was just sent to AAA and replaced by Boshers.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins

 

Edited July 20, 2016 by Major Leauge Ready

[tobi0040]

Berrios now has 165 innings in AAA (after 130 in AA). He has an ERA around 2.50, a WHIP at 1.00, and a k rate of 9.7.

 

There is no reason why he needs 300+ innings in AA and AAA.

[Mr. Brooks]

If Berrios isn't up yet (and as of 1:07 CDT 7/20/16, that is the case), then I leave him down there until August 1st. It's a lost season and Jose could be making major league starts. I get that, but two more starts in AAA isn't going to change anything about his future.

 

Waiting until Aug 1 allows Nolasco and Milone to get two more starts. We all want them gone, but none of us think we can get anything for them. I mostly agree, but if they pitch decent over those couple starts (like they did the last two games), then you might get a desperate team either willing to take on salary (mostly a Nolasco issue) and/or part with a lottery ticket prospect.

 

Benching them takes that possibility away.

Nolasco and Milone have pretty long and established track records. There is no way that 2 more starts, no matter good good or how bad they are, is going to change their value either way.

[tobi0040]

Nolasco and Milone have pretty long and established track records. There is no way that 2 more starts, no matter good good or how bad they are, is going to change their value either way.

Yes. You are spot on. Nobody is going to see 60 starts out if Nolasco at a 5.50 ERA and want him after two shut outs.

[ashbury]

Yes. You are spot on. Nobody is going to see 60 starts out if Nolasco at a 5.50 ERA and want him after two shut outs.

If a trade is in the works then the additional starts would be to demonstrate there's no damaged goods, not to increase the trade value. If there's no trade imminent, then investing further starts doesn't accomplish much IMO.

[prouster]

 

It was about the age thing when drafted part having some sort of meaning...that's it.  If you feel like it didn't make sense, that's fine.  Doesn't matter.

 

Age doesn't necessarily matter when drafting (although a 17 year old high schooler may turn a few more heads than one who is about to turn 19), but it is a huge factor when evaluating prospects. If a guy is two years younger than the competition, his stats carry more weight than if he was two years older than the competition. That's why a guy like Daniel Palka is a fringy prospect. Yes, he's crushing the ball, but he spent most of the year at Double-A, where the average age is slightly over 24 (Palka, as of his move up to Triple-A, was 24 years, 8 months, and 7 days old--so, a few months above average). A guy like Max Kelper, on the other hand, dominated the Southern League as a 22 year old. Kepler was obviously the more highly regarded of the two before either wore a Lookouts jersey, but he was also kind of fringy when he began at that level. The fact that he owned players generally older than him caused him to stand out among his peers.

 

In other words, no one said Polanco is better than Bryant because the latter went to college. It would be crazy to think that. The OP's point was that Polanco's minor league track record is more impressive than Dozier's. Which it is. While Dozier was still at Southern Mississippi, Polanco was making top-100 lists.

[jimmer]

 

. The OP's point was that Polanco's minor league track record is more impressive than Dozier's. Which it is. While Dozier was still at Southern Mississippi, Polanco was making top-100 lists.

Well, that's not true.  Dozier was drafted at 22 and the two top 100 lists Polanco made were both pre-2016 (BA and MLB) when he was 22. Unless there are others you're talking about other than BP, BA and MLB dot com.

 

In any event, if you follow the conversation, this has been discussed at length and like I said earlier, the amount of posts I've written on this is was out of proportion to the amount I care about it.  If people want to keep hashing it out, they can do it without me participating.

Edited July 21, 2016 by jimmer

[prouster]

 

Well, that's not true.  Dozier was drafted at 22 and the two top 100 lists Polanco made were both pre-2016 (BA and MLB) when he was 22. Unless there are others you're talking about other than BP, BA and MLB dot com.

 

In any event, if you follow the conversation, this has been discussed at length and like I said earlier, the amount of posts I've written on this is was out of proportion to the amount I care about it.  If people want to keep hashing it out, they can do it without me participating.

 

Right. Dozier turned 22 about a month before he was drafted. Polanco, 22 at the start of the 2016 season, made both the BA and MLB.com top-100 lists. Yes, Polanco being 22.9 vs. Dozier being 22.1 is different, if a person wants to be pedantic. I guess I'm not sure what point you're making. Do you think Dozier was a better prospect? As far as me following the conversation, you made an argument that gave me a strong reaction, so I wanted to post something. I don't care if you respond or not.

 

As far as the Twins roster is concerned going forward, I fall into the camp that we should try and trade Dozier. Whether that's at the deadline or in the off season might not matter so much, unless a team on the cusp thinks he can help with a pennant run and is willing to pay a premium for that chance. His homerun power would definitely be missed, but there are other guys in the lineup who could make up for it. I also like Polanco's ability to get on base better than Dozier's. Considering that Dozier is likely to decline in the very near future, I'd rather take a chance on the rookie.

[dbminn]

Great article, Seth. "It's Time!" is a fitting title for both the minor league prospects and also for the young players settling in with the Twins. Amidst all the woulda/coulda/shoulda of the past and speculation about the future, there are some good things happening right now.

 

The Twins hit rock bottom on June 25th at 23-51. Since then, they've managed a reasonable 12-8 record. They're winning with better pitching as well as hot hitting by Suzuki and Dozier. But the best thing happening is the performance of the youngsters. Since returning to the bigs:

 

Vargas    .344/.462/.813  (recalled July 4th)

Kepler     .232/.306/.483  (recalled June 1st)

Rosario   .357/.364/.571  (recalled July 3rd)

Sano       .268/.359/.482  (returned from DL July 1st)

 

Small sample size, but it looks like it's time for them to get established.  I've really enjoyed watching them develop since their return. I'm ready for Berrios and Chargois to join them in the very near future.

[amjgt]

Yes. You are spot on. Nobody is going to see 60 starts out if Nolasco at a 5.50 ERA and want him after two shut outs.

I respectfully disagree. Milone for sure and Nolasco to a lesser extend would be viewed, by teams that are desperate, as stopgaps. Short term success might not portend long-term success, but the short term success could continue. Analytics might not recognize that players can "get on a roll" but you'd be niave to think that it's not a real thing