Article: Twins Fire General Manager Terry Ryan

[Thrylos]

Re: Antony at the deadline:  

 

I think that it will be his only opportunity to see a deadline as an MLB GM.  It will be a good test for him.  If he sucks, he is gone.  I bet that he understands the importance of that and that his future employment may depend on what he does at the deadline, and rises to the occasion.  

 

Glad to see Pohlad starting to hold people accountable, and I hope he does not stop but hold Antony accountable for what he does (or not) the rest of the season.

 

Time to show that he can play with the big boys or go away.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Even though the penalty period has expired it doesn't mean it makes business sense to cash out. It only makes sense if they think the Twins valuation has maxed out or is slowing in growth to the point that they can reallocate that investment elsewhere for a bigger return. $450 million in the bank doesn't do anything for you and they have plenty of other assets to play with. I don't see them selling unless they just don't want to put the energy into the team anymore.

Oops, sorry.  I had a very old estimate of the Twins value. 

 

http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

 

The Twins team value, as of  March 2016 is $910 M.  Again, purchased for $44M.

Take the revenue of $240 and subtract the expenses, profit is around $96M  [although I could be wrong on the math].

 

Kinda screams 'sell now!' to me....

 

 

Edited July 18, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[tobi0040]

Wouldn't the playing time/quick hooks on our younger players be on Molitor, not Ryan?

I am referencing sending Berrios back to AAA after four starts, Chargois after one appearance

[mazeville]

 

Probably agree that Bill Smith should not have been a GM in this era, but everyone should remember that no Bill Smith = no Jim Thome, no Sano, no Kepler, probably no Berrios and possibly no Buxton. A lot of bad decisions happened under his watch, sure, but he was the driver for obtaining the most positive parts of the team's future and the continuation of bad decisions after his removal suggests that he should get a break.

 

All of this ^ is absolutely true, though Buxton was earned because the Twins were so bad in 2011. But a lot of the team's top prospects were signed under Smith's watch, not Ryan's. And the problems since then are probably indicative of an organization-wide failure more than Smith on his own. 

 

But that's usually the case, I think, and it's all the more reason to bring in an outsider and change thinking there.

[LimestoneBaggy]

I'm most concerned with the Pohlad's making Antony's decisions for him at the deadline [shudder].

 

[jokin]

 

It has to be about a disagreement about the trade deadline, doesn't it? Otherwise, why now?

 

I am still stunned.....

 

Very un-Twins-like..... But this move is only "stunning" in this market- the team has all of 33 wins; Park was an epic flop; Sano to RF was an unmitigated disaster; his first big trade, Span for Meyer officially imploded; the pen not only wasn't shored up as TR promised; May is struggling in his role; and the "prize" mid-season trade from last season blew up in TR's face.

 

Your logic is sound, though. Smith was canned when push came to shove about $$$. Was there an offer on the table for Santana, Nolasco, et al, with the Twins picking up salary?

[dgwills]

Due to the timing of this I have to think Ryan was fired for his absolute inability to make deals. The Twins had major roster construction issues coming into the season and Ryan did nothing. The Twin's have been sellers for months, but Ryan hasn't moved one player. I think Ryan was always to worried about winning every trade value wise. In some situations close is good enough.

I imagine Pohlad walked into Ryan's office and asked what the plan until trade deadline was. Ryan-Just waiting for the phone to ring. Pohlad- You know what Terry. We'll just let the secretary answer it.

[beckmt]

Did not expect this, but hoping Twins bring in a new GM quickly.  It does not look according to Wolfson, trade deadline decisions were the issue, but to me it could be the same issue as Bill Smith, badly spent owners money. 

That will always get the owners attention. Expect given next years revenue projection, the  Twins will do a major salary dump this year and rebuild with the youth.  Hope new GM guesses right on which ones to keep.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Oops, sorry.  I had a very old estimate of the Twins value. 

 

http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

 

The Twins team value, as of  March 2016 is $910 M.  Again, purchased for $44M.

Take the revenue of $240 and subtract the expenses, profit is around $96M  [although I could be wrong on the math].

 

Kinda screams 'sell now!' to me....

 

A 10%+ ROI with growing equity in a nearly fail-proof business sounds pretty good to me. Not sure why they'd feel any desire to sell. That's pretty tough to beat. But I'm also not a billionaire businessman and I have no idea what other projects they may want to focus on.

[gocgo]

 

The fatal flaws with your argument are that you are equating the amount of money a team spends with their on-field success, which we all know is a myth; and that you are suggesting you know how much the Pohlads are willing to spend, which you don't. I think the Twins' GM job would be attractive for many qualified candidates, because of the young talent pool and the possibility for short-term and long-term success.

While I agree that money spent doesn't always equal success, I think we all know that good starting pitching is expensive and a key to success of a baseball franchise.  The Twins system has not produced a front line starter for a long time, so it would be reasonable to expect that the talent would have to be acquired rather than developed.  In the end, we will see, but my bet is that Antony is the guy and, if not him, another first time GM.

[Linus]

The more I think about this it has to be about money. The pohlads wouldnt intervene in pure baseball decisions. I'm guessing they want anybody making decent money gone and TR objected.

Edited July 18, 2016 by Linus

[Mike Sixel]

 

A 10%+ ROI with growing equity in a nearly fail-proof business sounds pretty good to me. Not sure why they'd feel any desire to sell. That's pretty tough to beat. But I'm also not a billionaire businessman and I have no idea what other projects they may want to focus on.

 

If I could make 10% in income, and build equity? I'd take that investment every single day. I'd put every penny I had into it if it was this low risk. I imagine the cash flow is even better than the income*

 

*that said, we are at best guessing on the income or cash flow of the Twins....

[Deduno Abides]

I also think the timing could have been based on the playing time/quick leash of young prospects and the fact that guys like Nolasco are still around.

 

The job of the GM is to quickly shift gears when you drop out of contention and focus on the future. By almost any measure, Terry gets a really bad grade here.

Totally agree. The funny thing is that early TR was good to cashing in veterans to amass young talent. Sure, letting Ortiz go for nothing was bad, but getting Ortiz for a rental of Dave Hollins was great. Knoblauch for Milton, Guzman and Buchanan was quite good; Buchanan for Bartlett was good; Milton for Silva and Punto was good; A.J. for Nathan, Liriano and Bonser was awesome. But those were all a long time ago.

 

Also, TR change in how he dealt with the young players. For example, Milton and Guzman had a lot ups and downs. Guzman almost looked like he literally needed to learn how to hit. Yet, he hung with them and stayed positive about them. Today, they would be sent back to AAA so fast after making teachable mistakes that their development would have been slowed or stunted. Further, there was no cockamamie position switching between infield and outfield, starter and reliever.

 

In summary, TR part II combined worse trading results and a deterioration of the environment for young and acquired players, among other problems.

[Vanimal46]

 

Oops, sorry.  I had a very old estimate of the Twins value. 

 

http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

 

The Twins team value, as of  March 2016 is $910 M.  Again, purchased for $44M.

Take the revenue of $240 and subtract the expenses, profit is around $96M  [although I could be wrong on the math].

 

Kinda screams 'sell now!' to me....

Unless an owner is in need of a quick influx of cash, and we're talking about billionaires here - they don't, why would any owner sell their team? Jim Pohlad and Mark Cuban's personalities couldn't be further a part, but Cuban was recently on Bill Simmons' new show, who said he wouldn't sell his team for any monetary offer. His reasoning: What do I need $3 Billion for? 

Cuban probably has his family set up for the next 5 generations, and I assume the Pohlad's do too. Owning a team is a pride thing, and though the Pohlad's aren't in the front page of the papers like Cuban is, I'd be willing to bet they enjoy owning a team. 

[Deduno Abides]

Re: Antony at the deadline:  

 

I think that it will be his only opportunity to see a deadline as an MLB GM.  It will be a good test for him.  If he sucks, he is gone.  I bet that he understands the importance of that and that his future employment may depend on what he does at the deadline, and rises to the occasion.  

 

Glad to see Pohlad starting to hold people accountable, and I hope he does not stop but hold Antony accountable for what he does (or not) the rest of the season.

 

Time to show that he can play with the big boys or go away.

My guess (hope?) is that Pohlad at least talked to Antony about his thoughts for how to handle the trade deadline and found them more attractive than what he was hearing from TR. Who knows, he may have also talked to Glen get comfortable with the interim GM concept and whether it would be easier to get a new GM this fall if TR was gone now or later.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Totally agree. The funny thing is that early TR was good to cashing in veterans to amass young talent. Sure, letting Ortiz go for nothing was bad, but getting Ortiz for a rental of Dave Hollins was great. Knoblauch for Milton, Guzman and Buchanan was quite good; Buchanan for Bartlett was good; Milton for Silva and Punto was good; A.J. for Nathan, Liriano and Bonser was awesome. But those were all a long time ago.

Also, TR change in how he dealt with the young players. For example, Milton and Guzman had a lot ups and downs. Guzman almost looked like he literally needed to learn how to hit. Yet, he hung with them and stayed positive about them. Today, they would be sent back to AAA so fast after making teachable mistakes that their development would have been slowed or stunted. Further, there was no cockamamie position switching between infield and outfield, starter and reliever.

In summary, TR part II combined worse trading results and a deterioration of the environment for young and acquired players, among other problems.

 

I usually sing TRs praises in acquiring talent as well, but these trades happened at a time when prospects weren't nearly as valued.  A lot has changed in that aspect of baseball in the last 20ish years, and TR was a big reason for that change.  I'm not quite so certain he adopted well when he could no longer pick and choose who he wanted when someone called asking for major league talent.  That aspect of his job has gotten a bit more difficult over time.  He's made some decent trades since then, but not of the quality listed above, and he's had a few more misses as well. 

[wsnydes]

For those interested, here's a statement sent to the Season Ticket holders:

 

"On behalf of the Minnesota Twins organization, I'd like to take this opportunity to follow up regarding today's announcement of leadership changes within our baseball operations. As an important stakeholder, we value your support and passion for the Twins, while always striving to ensure you are up to speed on the long-term strategic direction of the franchise.

 

Today's news that Twins Executive Vice President Terry Ryan has been relieved of his duties is challenging for all involved. Since joining our organization as a player in 1972, Terry has been a dedicated, loyal and respected member of the Minnesota Twins family. Terry has been a gifted leader of the baseball department for over eighteen seasons. It is impossible to overstate his contribution to our game, our team and the Upper Midwest baseball community. The decision to part ways with Terry was difficult, painful and not obvious.

 

We are extremely grateful and very thankful to Terry, his wife Karilyn and their family for being a part of the Minnesota Twins.

 

Beginning today, Vice President and Assistant General Manager Rob Antony will assume the General Manager duties on an interim basis. We have great confidence in Rob and his ability to provide strong leadership of our baseball operations throughout the balance of the 2016 season.

 

Looking to the future, the Twins will immediately commence a search for a new head of baseball operations. Said search will be thorough, include a focus on external as well as internal candidates, and follow the hiring guidelines as provided by Major League Baseball.

 

Today's announcement does not portend a personnel housecleaning throughout our system. The immediate focus of our executive staff and Terry's successor will be on ways to improve our system's policies and procedures. From that, change will inevitably follow, but its nature is unknown.

 

For more information, please see the official press release announcing today's news.

 

As always, I thank you for your incredible support of Twins baseball. We look forward to seeing you at Target Field again soon.

 

Sincerely,

Jim Pohlad
Owner & CEO"

Edited July 18, 2016 by wsnydes

[Deduno Abides]

All of this ^ is absolutely true, though Buxton was earned because the Twins were so bad in 2011. But a lot of the team's top prospects were signed under Smith's watch, not Ryan's. And the problems since then are probably indicative of an organization-wide failure more than Smith on his own.

 

But that's usually the case, I think, and it's all the more reason to bring in an outsider and change thinking there.

Agree. "Outsider" means "someone making leadership level baseball decisions in an organization that is innovative and successful." The trick for Pohlad is figuring out (i) whether the person helped cause the success or just got credit for other people's innovations and analyses, and (ii) whether the person will get along with people. Don't want to hire another Jack Z. Edited July 18, 2016 by Deduno Abides

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

 

Re: Antony at the deadline:  

 

I think that it will be his only opportunity to see a deadline as an MLB GM.  It will be a good test for him.  If he sucks, he is gone.  I bet that he understands the importance of that and that his future employment may depend on what he does at the deadline, and rises to the occasion.  

 

Glad to see Pohlad starting to hold people accountable, and I hope he does not stop but hold Antony accountable for what he does (or not) the rest of the season.

 

Time to show that he can play with the big boys or go away.

 

To piggyback on this, while it's true that the Twins are throwing a "new" and inexperienced guy into the deep end at the trade deadline, Antony has all the organization's analytics and scouting resources at his disposal. It's not hard to imagine that he'd be more inclined to use them and less inclined to assume he can rely on his knowledge alone than a long-tenured GM would be.

 

Edit: I realize that either the org's scouts or (especially) their analytics department can be reasonably criticized as behind the curve; my point is simply that whatever organizational knowledge was there for Ryan is there for Antony and he might be more inclined to take advantage of it.

Edited July 18, 2016 by whosafraidofluigirussolo

[Deduno Abides]

I usually sing TRs praises in acquiring talent as well, but these trades happened at a time when prospects weren't nearly as valued.  A lot has changed in that aspect of baseball in the last 20ish years, and TR was a big reason for that change.  I'm not quite so certain he adopted well when he could no longer pick and choose who he wanted when someone called asking for major league talent.  That aspect of his job has gotten a bit more difficult over time.  He's made some decent trades since then, but not of the quality listed above, and he's had a few more misses as well.

 

I'm not singing his praises; just saying that he used to be good at a key task, cashing in veterans, which would be valuable now, but that he's not good at it anymore. I'm also saying that he has changed in how he deals with young players, to the detriment of the team's culture and their chances to succeed.

[d-mac]

 

A 10%+ ROI with growing equity in a nearly fail-proof business sounds pretty good to me. Not sure why they'd feel any desire to sell. That's pretty tough to beat. But I'm also not a billionaire businessman and I have no idea what other projects they may want to focus on.

 

Having worked in Economics/Finance through even one business cycle one thing about human nature is abundantly clear: People expect things that are going well to continue to go well indefinitely. Conversely, people expect things that are going poorly to continue to go poorly indefinitely.

 

Case in point- the housing bubble, stock market collapse and market rebound from '06-'10. People falsely assumed that the price of housing would continue to go up forever and made business and personal financial decisions based on that reasoning. During the resulting downturn of the stock market people sold at the bottom of the market expecting the sell off to continue, but it didn't. The S&P 500 reached it's Aug-Sept '08 levels by early 2011. Many investors after loosing their shirt from selling in Oct '08- Mar '09, were then weary about re-entering the market despite it doubling in 2-3 years after the sell-off and were thus priced out. 

 

Might the pro sports industry be in a bubble? Based on valuations that is certainly possible. We'll see how the unbundling of traditional media and increased competition from competing entertainment options in a slow-growth economy affect revenues and valuations. I highly doubt it will continue to grow at this pace in the medium term. 

[SwainZag]

 

Oops, sorry.  I had a very old estimate of the Twins value. 

 

http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

 

The Twins team value, as of  March 2016 is $910 M.  Again, purchased for $44M.

Take the revenue of $240 and subtract the expenses, profit is around $96M  [although I could be wrong on the math].

 

Kinda screams 'sell now!' to me....

 

Unless they have another business proposition on the table, why?  Sports franchises are booming right now and with the recent woes on the Twins, you would think even at that high value they would be selling "low."  Unless they just want to get out of the business, it seems like a bad time to sell to me.

[nicksaviking]

Firing a GM midseason is a statement move.

 

If Rob Antony is GM on December 1st, I'll be shocked. Ownership doesn't can a GM who has been with the franchise for over 30 years (especially a loyalty-based team like the Twins) and then hire his hand-picked successor four months later.

I'm surprised by the timing, not the decision. Pohlad has never been as media visible as he has been the last couple months, something was brewing.

 

That being said, they likely just fired the most knowledgeable baseball mind in the system. I don't think Pohlad or St Peter could manage this firing or hiring themselves; who's pulling the strings?

 

Was there internal insurrection by guys like Anthony and Krivsky? All the widely believed "country club" talk would imply no. Were other owners and/or the commissioners office whispering in Pohlad's ear unhappy about the fact that the Twins are already on the receiving end of revenue sharing despite the new stadium? I'd think it's more likely.

 

If so, that's great for the team if the rest of the clubs are making a concerted effort to make the team better.

[Thrylos]

 

My guess (hope?) is that Pohlad at least talked to Antony about his thoughts for how to handle the trade deadline and found them more attractive than what he was hearing from TR. Who knows, he may have also talked to Glen get comfortable with the interim GM concept and whether it would be easier to get a new GM this fall if TR was gone now or later.

 

Will definitely be easier to get a GM this fall vs. now, because the candidate pool will be bigger.  Right now the candidate pool is really people who are not part of any organization.  Very hard for people who are looking to move (out or up) in a particular organization to make the move around the trading deadline.  Just does not happen and it is pretty uncool.

 

Now, I hope that he hires a President of Baseball Operations now who can hire a GM in the fall and starting cleaning house in the player development department (eg. re-fire the re-hired former manager, among others)  ASAP.

 

[operation mindcrime]

What happened to we're 100% committed to Terry Ryan?

[Thrylos]

 

What happened to we're 100% committed to Terry Ryan?

 

And Paul Monitor

 

You know who is next...  

 

[Monkeypaws]

 

Today's announcement does not portend a personnel housecleaning throughout our system. The immediate focus of our executive staff and Terry's successor will be on ways to improve our system's policies and procedures. From that, change will inevitably follow, but its nature is unknown.

 

Hmm. Sounds more administrative than baseball related, like a directive from someone who is looking for system-wide accountability.

 

 

Edited July 18, 2016 by Monkeypaws

[laloesch]

HOLY BLEEP, BLEEP, BLEEP, BLEEP! 

Didn't see this coming at all.  Wow.  This is not the typical Twins way.  Pohlads must be fuming over how this season is going.

 

Now it's time for a Fire Sale.  DUMP everything over 30.  I fully expect to be rid of Nolasco, Plouffe, Milone, Santana, Suzuki possibly more in the next two weeks.

 

WOW! 

[SweetOne69]

 

Unless an owner is in need of a quick influx of cash, and we're talking about billionaires here - they don't, why would any owner sell their team? Jim Pohlad and Mark Cuban's personalities couldn't be further a part, but Cuban was recently on Bill Simmons' new show, who said he wouldn't sell his team for any monetary offer. His reasoning: What do I need $3 Billion for? 

Cuban probably has his family set up for the next 5 generations, and I assume the Pohlad's do too. Owning a team is a pride thing, and though the Pohlad's aren't in the front page of the papers like Cuban is, I'd be willing to bet they enjoy owning a team. 

 

For a billionaire, owning a professional sports team is a rare achievement.  There are only about 120 pro teams in the 4 major sports.  So owning 1 puts you in small club.

[Mike Sixel]

I find this so unreal I just installed iHeart Radio to listen to Barrerio......unreal.