Article: Commitment Issues

[Nick Nelson]

On Monday, the Twins officially released Kevin Jepsen following a miserable first half. The timing of the move is painful, coming one day after Chih-Wei Hu – the 22-year-old pitching prospect dealt for Jepsen last July – flashed outstanding stuff in the All Star Futures Game.

 

Many will dwell on how bad the trade now looks. Few would have done so at the end of last September. But there is a valuable takeaway here, and it's one that this organization should already have taken away.Hu always had the makings of a nice young pitcher so it's no surprise to see him succeeding in Tampa's system. But Jepsen was also an accomplished veteran reliever with strong numbers, and you have to give up something to get something. It's not like Hu was an elite young talent by any stretch.

 

Would Terry Ryan have needed to part with a prospect of even Hu's caliber, though, if he were merely acquiring a two-month rental of similar ability? Not a chance. The Twins had to step up their offer in order to bring in a player who remained under team control for an additional season.

 

Jepsen's drastic drop-off, from sheer brilliance in 2015 to utter ineptitude in 2016, serves as a reminder that relief pitchers are extremely volatile assets. That is why it makes little sense to pay extra for added commitment.

 

This misstep is made more frustrating because it's a lesson that the Twins have already learned the hard way, and also because it's completely inconsistent with the way Ryan operates otherwise.

 

At the trade deadline in 2010, Minnesota was on the lookout for an established closer as they geared up for a postseason run. Bill Smith infamously gave up catching prospect Wilson Ramos in exchange for Nationals reliever Matt Capps.

 

Ramos was a prized prospect at a high-value position, and seemed like a high price to pay for a good-not-great closer. But the appeal of Capps, and the factor that undoubtedly swayed Smith to surrender Ramos, was the extra year of control. The Twins didn't really know what to expect from Joe Nathan in 2011, when he'd be freshly rehabbed from Tommy John surgery, so they sought added stability in the late innings.

 

The way things played out was essentially a mirror image of what we just witnessed with Jepsen. Capps did his part down the stretch in 2010, filling a key role in the bullpen, but was an unreliable mess the following year. This kind of fluctuation isn't uncommon. Again, relief pitchers are volatile.

 

That trade is now widely viewed as the worst in modern franchise history, since the Twins are bereft of long-term catching options whereas Ramos appeared in last night's All-Star Game. Now, Ryan has fallen into the same trap, albeit to a lesser degree.

 

Clearly, Jepsen's extended control was attractive as the GM looked ahead at an uncertain 2016 bullpen picture. Ryan may have had some inklings about the issues that were beginning to plague Glen Perkins, as well.

 

But the proper approach would have been to pick up a true rental, which would demand a lower return, and regroup in the offseason. There, the trade market is less driven by timing and leverage, while free agents are also available.

 

This brings me to the part that is most irksome. Throughout his tenure, Ryan has consistently eschewed the high-end free agent reliever market, and the reason is always the same. It's not the money, it's the term. He doesn't like making multi-year contract commitments to relief pitchers, given their mercurial nature. Hey, it makes sense. But if that's the mindset, why are you willing to give up prospects – a far more valuable commodity than money – in exchange for that very same thing?

 

This costly inconsistent thinking stands out as a major blemish for the Twins front office. Mistakes happen, but they shouldn't happen twice.

 

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[KirbyDome89]

The futures game invite isn't a guarantee of MLB success but it was hard to watch him throw and not feel a twinge of anger. I think the last 2 sentences perfectly sum up a good number of the decisions made the past few years. 

[shs_59]

Going back to the Trade Deadine last year, frankly, I was happy the Twins made a move, additionally they probably could of made another one. 

 

Anyway did I like the Trade at the Time?  

 

HELL no!         most of us, as I re-call didn't. Hu + Tapia for Jepsen? yuck

 

But Then Jepsen went on to have one of the more dominant halves for a reliever in Twins recent history. (and was much needed as Perkins, somewhat predictably folded up)

 

SO was the trade worth it in the end? 

Absolutely and I nor should the Twins have any regrets.

 

Nobody could of forseen Jepsen falling off the face of a cliff so sharply after August / September of last year even at the Winter Meetings just months ago.

[h2oface]

Jepsen's performance last year was a clear outlier and classic fools gold. Just as Hughes' performance was in 2014. Some, not nobody, are not so easily duped.

[shs_59]

Had the Twins picked up a true rental at last years trade deadline though, As Nick suggests, and then let the relief pitcher walk...via Free agency....

 

Maybe they would of been in on RP Seung-Hwan-Oh , the Releiver who came over from Korea in the off-season for cheap.

Oh ended up going to St. Louis Cardinals on a 1 year contract with less money committed to than our very own Byung Ho-Park

 

Park + Oh would sure make the Twins current situation a bit better

 

Sure would be nice , but Hindsight is a b*tch.

[SarasotaBill]

Ryan should have known the Twins of 2015 were not going to win the World Series. 

The plan has been to shoot for 2017 and beyond.

Trading away any 2017 asset for 2015 was stupid.

You have to know the timing of your team - Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios, ......

The Jepsen trade was done by a GM who either feels the pressure to get into the playoffs for his ego or truely doesn't understand about team construction timing.

A few years ago Theo Epstein traded away his best pitcher who still had another year and a half on his contract to get a top prospect (who played last night at SS). He knew his team timing was for 2016 and beyond.

 

 

[h2oface]

Jepsen was realistically more than arguably better for much of 2014 while with The Tampa Rays than he was in the first half in 2015 with Tampa Bay, thus eliminating you're argument.

My opinion is not an argument, and you can't eliminate my opinion.

 

If you are looking for arguments, that is down the hall, second door on the right.

Edited July 13, 2016 by h2oface

[Platoon]

I am not going to pretend to know enough about the value of Hu and Jepsen to say this was a good idea at the time. But I was against the deal for another reason. I did not consider the Twins a playoff team in any part of 2015. So I didn't see a need for bull pen help. And from the needs that this team has, especially in SP, giving up one was not a good idea. The playoff run was a great story, but we were chasing too many clubs, and our own tails. We never caught either.

[KGB]

Let's give Ryan some credit, at least he learned not to give Jepsen a Suzuki/Hughes type extension after last year.

 

Relief pitchers seem to be up one year and down another.  That why I was okay with not signing a FA relief pitcher.  Of the big dollar signing this offseason of relief pitchers, it's about 50/50 on success.  The Twins minor league signing have been just as good as many of the FA signing.

 

But I hope they plan on giving some of the minor league relief pitchers a shot for the remaining of the season.  With the bullpen, I a fan of going young and 1 year contracts.

[SDTwinsFan]

I didn't like the deal last year (but it looked pretty solid by the end of the year). My issue with the trade was that Ryan hedged on the playoffs. We obviously needed more help than Jepsen, but we didn't make any other moves or bring up anybody until it was getting too late. If you are going to "go for it", make some significant changes. Otherwise, stick to the plan for 2018 (2028?) and move along.

[Thrylos]

The Capps trade got the Twins in the postseason.  

The Jepsen trade did not.

 

That's a big difference.

 

Also:

 

Hu was a much lesser prospect in the Twins system (does that say anything about the Twins' system and their ability to develop pitchers?  Of course it does) than Ramos, but Ramos was blocked by a guy named Mauer, and if Mauer did not go through concussion issues and had been the Mauer that we all expected to be when that trade was made nobody would be talking about Ramos now...

 

And Capps was a closer while Jepsen was a middle reliever in their respective teams.

 

Bottom line:  the Twins need a better way of developing pitchers, so they have several ready to jump in from their pen.  I have still not seen a pitcher since Neshek and Crain, come in from the minors and be very successful in the pen, while others (Hendriks,  Manship etc) found success after changing organizations, which makes me think that the issue is not the talent, but the way they develop talent. (and one of course can make a similar argument about starters from the MLB level down.)

 

That is the root cause of the problem and not trades for mediocre relievers.   The latter is a (bad) symptom...

[big dog]

Agreed on Capps/Ramos.  Ramos also missed most of the 2011 season and almost half of each of the two following seasons with injuries.  Even if he'd been here he wouldn't have been a full-time replacement for Mauer (unless he'd stayed healthy because of clean Minnesota living or something).

 

I hated giving up Hu, but I also wonder if I am way too high on our prospects.  Having Jepsen this year pitching a little worse than last year would have been a lot better than having Jepsen the current train wreck.  We could have handled a little regression.

 

I am not so convinced that it's as much of a coaching issue as some argue.  Look at Hendriks.  He's been gone for 3 years.  2 of the 3, including this year, have been really bad.  We haven't missed much.  Manship has put together a good year and a half with Cleveland after two dreadful years with two different teams since leaving the Twins.  Not exactly an instant turnaround, a painful process other teams had to live with.

 

I'm more convinced by the argument that mid-level RPs are mainly lightning in a bottle.  Don't overpay, don't sign to extensions, just keep looking.  Heck, Joh Rauch had a good year and a half here.  

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

If the Twins sign Ramos as a FA over the off season, all can be forgiven.

[HitInAPinch]

I'm wondering:

 

• what's the percentage of middle / setup relievers that become +closers
• what's the percentage of late season acquisitions that are successful in playoff push
• what's the percentage of late season acquisitions that stay with that team and are successful next year

"If you live in the past, you die in the past."  Mike Ditka, circa 2008

“The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed."  William Gibson, circa 2003

[Mike Sixel]

I was not in love with the trade.......mostly because it was likely too little too late, and was another (imo) half step that cost a prospect.

 

They know the RP is an issue...but don't fix it. Last year, that bit them in 2 ways: cost them Hu, may have cost them a playoff appearance. This year? This year it cost them nothing, I guess.

[tobi0040]

I think the commitment issues have hampered the team in other areas as well (not just the pen). Terry Ryan always takes comfort in shorter deals. The issue is the two fold, players that are willing to accept shorter deals are not as good as players requiring longer deals. And is there really a difference between longer deals and $20-25m in shorter deals when you have them every season?

 

The 2014 team had nearly $20m tied up in Correia, Pelfrey, Burton, Duensing, Kubel, and Bartlett.

 

The 2015 team had $25m locked up in Hunter, Pelfrey, Duensing, Stauffer, Schafer, Boyer, and Fein.

 

You avoid some of that dead weight and maybe you can sign an impcat player or two instead of guys like Willingham, Nolasco, or Ervin.

 

It seems to me changing this approach will be one of the many pieces of low hanging fruit a new GM will find.

Edited July 13, 2016 by tobi0040

[mazeville]

From my recollection, most people seemed to be OK with the trade at the time it was made -- though not all. 

 

The trade seems to reinforce the idea that it's just a bad, bad idea to make any trade for a quality reliever because you have to give up too much. It's better to either risk making a big signing or going with a combination of scrap heap guys and young, up-and-coming players. 

[wsnydes]

I think the inverse of this is true as well.  TR has also committed to players he shouldn't.  Extending Suzuki, Hughes, and Pelfrey would be the primary examples.  As much as I loved having Torii around again from a fans perspective, it made little baseball sense.  

[tobi0040]

Good call wsnydes. But it is a similar pattern. Those were two year deals and Hughes was a three year deal.

 

Favoring short term deals over long term deals and the known/vet vs unknown or younger player.

[wsnydes]

 

From my recollection, most people seemed to be OK with the trade at the time it was made -- though not all. 

 

The trade seems to reinforce the idea that it's just a bad, bad idea to make any trade for a quality reliever because you have to give up too much. It's better to either risk making a big signing or going with a combination of scrap heap guys and young, up-and-coming players. 

I think most people that were okay with it also expected more to be done.  I was in the boat that didn't want them to do anything because I felt last year was a mirage.  They needed to stay the course for the future rather than detour for the short term.  Stick with the long term plan (ha!), don't budge because you've somehow managed to find yourself within shouting distance of a playoff spot.  In the end, TR did what he's been doing for years.  He was stuck in neutral.  Not advancing enough to be worthwhile, yet not really going backwards.  In the end, I wonder how many of those that were okay with the deal were okay with it when they realized that's all that was done.  At that end, what was the point of the move at all?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Jepsen's performance last year was a clear outlier and classic fools gold. Just as Hughes' performance was in 2014. Some, not nobody, are not so easily duped.

 

I don't think anyone expected Jepsen to pitch like he did in 2015 for the Twins, but I think it was very fair to expect that they would get what he has always been, which is a reliable 7th inning guy who could also work some 8th innings. 

 

I struggle with this one because I truly like the idea of getting a guy that you have control of for more than just the two months. I hated the trade at the time, but I get it, and Hu would likely still be behind Berrios, Jay, Gonsalves in Twins prospect rankings and probably behind (or near) the likes of Felix Jorge, Fernando Romero and Kohl Stewart. 

 

Again, not saying it was the right move, but when you add in The Expensive Three (Santana, Nolasco and Hughes, who are all still signed for awhile), Milone, Duffey, Gibson, we're talking about a starting pitcher who was somewhere around 9 or 10 in the pecking order. 

 

Like I said, I still hated the trade, but I can't say that I completely disagree with the idea of getting a guy with extra control. The trade worked well for the Twins in 2015, and it isn't unfair for the Twins to have expected some level of competence from Jepsen in 2016. 

 

EDIT:

 

I was just curious where Chih-Wei Hu ranks among Rays prospects by various sources, just to try to put some context into this for myself. For me, I ranked Hu about 15 among Twins prospects at midseason last year, which was higher than most. He was outside the Top 20 (or even 30) for many.

 

2016 rankings with Rays (a generally-respected system):

 

Keith Law - 8

MLB.com - 12

Rays Index - 12

FanGraphs - 13

Baseball America - 15

John Sickels - 20

[mazeville]

 

I think most people that were okay with it also expected more to be done.  I was in the boat that didn't want them to do anything because I felt last year was a mirage.  They needed to stay the course for the future rather than detour for the short term.  Stick with the long term plan (ha!), don't budge because you've somehow managed to find yourself within shouting distance of a playoff spot.  In the end, TR did what he's been doing for years.  He was stuck in neutral.  Not advancing enough to be worthwhile, yet not really going backwards.  In the end, I wonder how many of those that were okay with the deal were okay with it when they realized that's all that was done.  At that end, what was the point of the move at all?

 

I don't disagree with any of that. At the same time, however, I get that the team wanted to make a push for the wild card after years of 90-loss seasons. And that was the going rate for relievers on the trade market. Lots of people every year clamor for the team to do something, especially at the deadline.

 

At this point, I want to see this team focus on young players and make trades of veterans to get more young players and then sign top free agents once the team has demonstrated an ability to win that is not a mirage.

 

[Jham]

 

I think the inverse of this is true as well.  TR has also committed to players he shouldn't.  Extending Suzuki, Hughes, and Pelfrey would be the primary examples.  As much as I loved having Torii around again from a fans perspective, it made little baseball sense.  

He deserves some criticism for the timing of some of the extensions after career years only if he was counting on that sort of production going forward.  We could argue as to whether or not it's smart to pay rewards or "bonuses" for past performance, and whether that is sign of encouragement to players looking for contracts.  But looking at the contracts at the time, I do not know if they really hurt the team much.

In general, I don't have a problem with the signings referenced for a few reasons: 1) Zuke has been a somewhat solid hitting catcher for much of his time with the Twins.  We really have few other options.  He was likely extended as a place holder.  Hughes was probably expected to contribute more than he has, and hopefully still can.  

 

2) It's pretty evident that prospects we have depended on weren't ready.  Pelfrey and Hunter were low risk and performed decently last season.  Someone has to pitch until the minor league arms are ready.  A playoff race changed the succession plan slightly, that's not a bad problem.  

 

3) It's not my money.

Regarding Jepson/Hu, I doubt we'll ever miss Hu.  Could be wrong, but I doubt he's more than a Slowey or Hendricks.  Jepson was fantastic last year, and with the arms we were projecting, Hu was expendable.  The team took a (hopefully) calculated risk and made a decision about which prospects were expendable.  The team needs more of that.  

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

From my recollection, most people seemed to be OK with the trade at the time it was made -- though not all. 

 

The trade seems to reinforce the idea that it's just a bad, bad idea to make any trade for a quality reliever because you have to give up too much. It's better to either risk making a big signing or going with a combination of scrap heap guys and young, up-and-coming players. 

 

To me, the trade reinforces that they should be looking to trade Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler this month and see what they can get back. Maybe someone else's mid-20s starting pitching prospect in return, and then maybe that guy can take off and become a Top 15 Twins prospect.

[wsnydes]

 

I don't disagree with any of that. At the same time, however, I get that the team wanted to make a push for the wild card after years of 90-loss seasons. And that was the going rate for relievers on the trade market. Lots of people every year clamor for the team to do something, especially at the deadline.

 

At this point, I want to see this team focus on young players and make trades of veterans to get more young players and then sign top free agents once the team has demonstrated an ability to win that is not a mirage.

This is where I was last year.  With that in mind, adding a reliever that doesn't help you become a legitimate contender made no sense.  I was hoping they'd be sneaky good this year, and then make that type of deal.  I do understand why they did it for the reasons you stated, but I didn't feel that they were in a serious position to really make a deal of that sort worthwhile.  

[Steve Lein]

 

In the end, TR did what he's been doing for years.  He was stuck in neutral.  Not advancing enough to be worthwhile, yet not really going backwards. 

 

A damning quote, and one I think is quite accurate.

 

I also thought the 2015 Twins were playing over their head the entire year. It was fun, but as has been mentioned here several times, it was also possibly the worst thing that could have happened to them.

 

I didn't like trading for a player like Jepsen. I didn't like that it was Hu whom was given up. Worked out well for one year, but it was the wrong year.

[tobi0040]

He deserves some criticism for the timing of some of the extensions after career years only if he was counting on that sort of production going forward. We could argue as to whether or not it's smart to pay rewards or "bonuses" for past performance, and whether that is sign of encouragement to players looking for contracts. But looking at the contracts at the time, I do not know if they really hurt the team much.

 

In general, I don't have a problem with the signings referenced for a few reasons: 1) Zuke has been a somewhat solid hitting catcher for much of his time with the Twins. We really have few other options. He was likely extended as a place holder. Hughes was probably expected to contribute more than he has, and hopefully still can.

 

2) It's pretty evident that prospects we have depended on weren't ready. Pelfrey and Hunter were low risk and performed decently last season. Someone has to pitch until the minor league arms are ready. A playoff race changed the succession plan slightly, that's not a bad problem.

 

3) It's not my money.

 

Regarding Jepson/Hu, I doubt we'll ever miss Hu. Could be wrong, but I doubt he's more than a Slowey or Hendricks. Jepson was fantastic last year, and with the arms we were projecting, Hu was expendable. The team took a (hopefully) calculated risk and made a decision about which prospects were expendable. The team needs more of that.

 

 

I think there should also be some criticism around succession planning at the catcher position.

 

It should have been apparent that Mauer was not going to be catching at 31/32 with that contract obligation. So the lack of investment in that position is the real issue. That leads folks to defend the signing of Suzuki because we had no other options.

Edited July 13, 2016 by tobi0040

[wsnydes]

 

He deserves some criticism for the timing of some of the extensions after career years only if he was counting on that sort of production going forward.  We could argue as to whether or not it's smart to pay rewards or "bonuses" for past performance, and whether that is sign of encouragement to players looking for contracts.  But looking at the contracts at the time, I do not know if they really hurt the team much.

In general, I don't have a problem with the signings referenced for a few reasons: 1) Zuke has been a somewhat solid hitting catcher for much of his time with the Twins.  We really have few other options.  He was likely extended as a place holder.  Hughes was probably expected to contribute more than he has, and hopefully still can.  

 

2) It's pretty evident that prospects we have depended on weren't ready.  Pelfrey and Hunter were low risk and performed decently last season.  Someone has to pitch until the minor league arms are ready.  A playoff race changed the succession plan slightly, that's not a bad problem.  

 

3) It's not my money.

Regarding Jepson/Hu, I doubt we'll ever miss Hu.  Could be wrong, but I doubt he's more than a Slowey or Hendricks.  Jepson was fantastic last year, and with the arms we were projecting, Hu was expendable.  The team took a (hopefully) calculated risk and made a decision about which prospects were expendable.  The team needs more of that.  

 

I don't really disagree with anything you say.  I think you laid it out pretty nicely as well.  I don't see the money being the issue so much because it hasn't hampered the team for signing other players.  I think that it comes into play more with the leash they're given though.  They're salaries seemed to dictate that they'd get more slack to the detriment of the team.  Now, they're performing so poorly that their salary becomes a hindrance in trade discussions.  I never liked the Pelfrey re-signing at all.  

 

Regarding Hunter, he took time away from a guy like Arcia who should have been playing more than he was.  I realize his injury and atrocious AAA play make this mostly moot, but you can't see that happening during the offseason.  

 

I agree, I doubt we miss Hu at all.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Going back to the Trade Deadine last year, frankly, I was happy the Twins made a move, additionally they probably could of made another one. 

 

Anyway did I like the Trade at the Time?  

 

HELL no!         most of us, as I re-call didn't. Hu + Tapia for Jepsen? yuck

 

But Then Jepsen went on to have one of the more dominant halves for a reliever in Twins recent history. (and was much needed as Perkins, somewhat predictably folded up)

 

SO was the trade worth it in the end? 

Absolutely and I nor should the Twins have any regrets.

 

Nobody could of forseen Jepsen falling off the face of a cliff so sharply after August / September of last year even at the Winter Meetings just months ago.

 

NOBODY could have seen it coming? That's a pretty bold statement. Maybe not to this severity but it shouldn't have been a total shock that he'd regress considerably and be thoroughly mediocre. His career ERA is 3.83 which is high for a supposed back-end reliever, and 2014/15 were clearly much better than his established baseline. Even his minor league performance was pretty rough until his call-up year. Sustained excellence shouldn't have been the expectation. I also found it interesting that he was 10 for 26 in save opportunities in his career at the time we acquired him. That may not be the best statistic but it speaks a little to his performance in high leverage situations.

[bird]

I remember not liking the trade, not because I had an opinion about the players involved, but because it reminded me of the Capps for Ramos deal, which sickens me yet today.