Trade Thoughts

[jorgenswest]

I don't believe Joe Mauer's contract can be reassigned in any way. He can be released outright, but I don't think he can be claimed in the August revocable waivers by another club leaving them on the hook for the salary. The salary, which he deservedly earned with his MVP play, is the burden of the Twins. As long as he continues to get on base at his current rate, he is a value to any baseball team. Since they are going to pay the money in either case, they might keep him until he one plus skill is no longer there.

[howieramone2]

 

You have to listen closely to everyone and counter as fast as possible. The stock of Twins players in is flux. You want value, but you also want to dump salary (although doubtful that any savings will carry over to higher futures.

 

A guy could be worth even less next season. And you roadblocked a future prospect or two.

 

You listen. You deal. You go forth. Any decision you make now reflects on the Twins in 2018 and beyond. Next year will happen. You can adjust your needs if you see fit in the free agent or minor free agent market. But by freeing up monies, you can reinvest in someone that MIGHT work as well, if not better, than what you currently overpaid for now.

 

Sadly, we still have Perkins and Hughes on the books for next season.

 

Of course, if anyone would claim these guys (or even Mauer) in August...I would be so tempted to let them walk and then deal with it going forth...get them back if they don't find a future home and you see promise heading into their waning years.

 

But job number one: CHANGE IN THE FRONT OFFICE then change on the field staff and change in the minor league system.

 

The Twins Way is NOT the way!

Never happen. The billionaires are happy with the way the franchise is run, and the Pohlads can afford to look at the big picture. Ownership totally bought into the cyclical nature of mid-market teams, which in our case lasted from 2012-2014. We were in the hunt in 2015, and while 2016 has been frustrating and disappointing, it is most likely a mirage. Assuming our star power, by which I mean Sano, Buxton, and Kepler are ready to shine on day one in 2017, all will be forgiven and forgotten.   

[RedBull34]

ABW has 20 of his 34 XBH's on off speed pitches this year. Dozier leads the Twins with the same number of XBH's (34)? You can't lead your league for 3 straight full seasons in Total Bases and Extra Base Hits and be considered a HR or nothing type player. Don't doubles and triples count? Why are his 100+ minor league doubles excluded from conversations? Defintely more than a HR player - Complete power in his game along with those strikeouts. To overlook complete package is crazy.

You missed my reference. It was a reference to a legit and difficult to circumvent tool or an easily avoided one. Had nothing to do with offspeed pitches.

 

Also you clearly believe that ABW is worth a lot. But Palka just got dealt for Hermann. Reality reflects that his actual value is not that high to GM's. His type dont get traded for much.

[RedBull34]

The prospects returned in the Gio Gonzales deal were not highly ranked at the time of the trade. You never know what Beane will do.AB Walker, one year in their system and he could replace the departing Butler. Mostly I posted that proposition because of your comment on the trading of AA pitching. Heresy to garbage. 2 b prospects a c+prospect is garbage. 2 unranked prospects are garbage, yet the turmoil over Hu was rampant.. A clever trader and the board would have ammo for how stupid the Twins are

If memory recalls correctly Gio signed an extension immediately after. I think he had one year of control and Gray has three. That's a big difference.

[The Wise One]

 

If memory recalls correctly Gio signed an extension immediately after. I think he had one year of control and Gray has three. That's a big difference.

Nope.   Gonzales had pitched 3 full seasons and a part of another when he was traded, Gray will have pitched 3 seaons and a part of another at the end of this year .  nice try.

[S.]

 

We were in the hunt in 2015, and while 2016 has been frustrating and disappointing, it is most likely a mirage.   

You seem to be confused on which year was the mirage.

[GMinTraining]

 

You missed my reference. It was a reference to a legit and difficult to circumvent tool or an easily avoided one. Had nothing to do with offspeed pitches.

Also you clearly believe that ABW is worth a lot. But Palka just got dealt for Hermann. Reality reflects that his actual value is not that high to GM's. His type dont get traded for much.

Never said ABW was worth a lot in trade.  Hell - If Ortiz can be let go (not traded)  and Johan Santana can be a rule 5 pick up, who's to say worth?  End of career results will be the story as always.  I'm sure Palka is glad he got traded.  He jumped from a 25-30 ranked prospect in a weaker system (AZ) to a probable top 10-15 prospect in more highly regarded system (MN).  That's his reality.  Worth is eventually about staying on some teams 40 man and getting paid!

[Otto von Ballpark]

A data point: I had an opportunity a few weeks ago to ask Pawtucket manager Kevin Boles to scout his upcoming opponent, the Rochester Red Wings. The first player he mentioned was ABW, and power was naturally what he pointed to.

 

That's a very imprecise data point, for various reasons I won't bother going into in a thread such as this. But it at least tells me Walker is on other teams' radar. "Real" value? Yeah, who knows.

Maybe he's on their radar because they expect to see him in AAA for a long time?

[laloesch]

Interesting.  The Twins are looking to "jettison" Ervin Santana and the remaining $28 million left in his deal according to mlbtraderumors.com.  

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/cafardos-latest-encarnacion-jays-bosox-moore-os-royals.html

 

One would hope they would be ridding themselves of Nolasco and Milone as well.  Let's get Berrios and May into starting roles as soon as possible.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Interesting. The Twins are looking to "jettison" Ervin Santana and the remaining $28 million left in his deal according to mlbtraderumors.com.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/cafardos-latest-encarnacion-jays-bosox-moore-os-royals.html

 

One would hope they would be ridding themselves of Nolasco and Milone as well. Let's get Berrios and May into starting roles as soon as possible.

Technically, it is according to a Boston sportswriter, one who previously seemed to report that Ervin had value in this market...

[laloesch]

 

Technically, it is according to a Boston sportswriter, one who previously seemed to report that Ervin had value in this market...

 

Sigh, Yes Connor Byrne posted a source link in his reference to the Boston Globe crediting Nick Cafardo in the original article.   My mistake for not fulfilling my moral obligations to TD posters in crediting a source of a source.

[RedBull34]

Nope. Gonzales had pitched 3 full seasons and a part of another when he was traded, Gray will have pitched 3 seaons and a part of another at the end of this year . nice try.

Ok, you are right but your package is still massively lacking. Gio was traded for 2 Pitchers who already debuted and a third well regarded prospect.

 

Your offering a AA Pitcher, a injured reliever, and a guy who doesn't have much trade value in ABW.

 

It wouldn't happen.

[RedBull34]

Never said ABW was worth a lot in trade. Hell - If Ortiz can be let go (not traded) and Johan Santana can be a rule 5 pick up, who's to say worth? End of career results will be the story as always. I'm sure Palka is glad he got traded. He jumped from a 25-30 ranked prospect in a weaker system (AZ) to a probable top 10-15 prospect in more highly regarded system (MN). That's his reality. Worth is eventually about staying on some teams 40 man and getting paid!

You compared him to Dozier. I inferred you thought he was worth at least a decent sum, since Dozier certainly is. Maybe you don't think he would get much in trade, but if you were GM, would you pursue ABW? Because it certainly sounds like it.

 

I personally would not. His Milb OBP is far too low.

[nokomismod]

Let the trades start soon please. The team has been fun to watch for the past 3 weeks which is all I'm asking for this year and next.

 

Trading Suzuki is almost a no brainier to me.

 

Also the time is now to trade Dozier. His value might be at a high water mark and let's get some pitching or a catcher in return (even solid AA).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sigh, Yes Connor Byrne posted a source link in his reference to the Boston Globe crediting Nick Cafardo in the original article. My mistake for not fulfilling my moral obligations to TD posters in crediting a source of a source.

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I wasn't picking on you, just clarifying because Cafardo was the source of earlier Santana speculation too. I just thought that was notable. (Also, Boston is/was a potential Santana suitor -- is it a Boston front office member who thinks Santana can be had for mostly cash?) I appreciate the link, I read MLBTR a lot but missed that item.

[jorgenswest]

I doubt there will be a point where Santana has more value.

 

If teams are looking for a way to get a league average pitcher this year for lesser prospect cost, Santana might be the solution. They take on the risk of decline and the salary while keeping better prospects they might have to give up to get a Sonny Gray. If the Twins demand better prospects in exchange for paying some of the salary, the other teams would be wise to to take their business elsewhere.

 

The Twins should take the best deal they can find and move on. If he is on the roster in 2018 and no longer effective, I would be concerned that the Twins will keep throwing him out there.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I think you have to consider trying to move anyone older than 25 that isn't likely to be a legit part of our future. Dozier, Plouffe, Nunez, Grossman, Suzuki, Santana, any reliever, and even Gibson should all be shopped before they lose value and block younger players.

[laloesch]

 

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I wasn't picking on you, just clarifying because Cafardo was the source of earlier Santana speculation too. I just thought that was notable. (Also, Boston is/was a potential Santana suitor -- is it a Boston front office member who thinks Santana can be had for mostly cash?) I appreciate the link, I read MLBTR a lot but missed that item.

 

No problem and your right.  I was a bit frustrated at the time when i posted that reply and i shouldn't have been.

[The Wise One]

 

Ok, you are right but your package is still massively lacking. Gio was traded for 2 Pitchers who already debuted and a third well regarded prospect.

Your offering a AA Pitcher, a injured reliever, and a guy who doesn't have much trade value in ABW.

It wouldn't happen.

No, but you proved the point I really couldn't say about trading AA pitchers is hersy.   When 2 of the starters are not good enough to bring back a major return then they are not so talented that it would be heretical to trade them.   When I made the remark as forgot that Hildenerger had been promoted to AA,   although there are a couple of players drafter late that are not playing so poorly that they  should be regulated to filler.

[RedBull34]

No, but you proved the point I really couldn't say about trading AA pitchers is hersy. When 2 of the starters are not good enough to bring back a major return then they are not so talented that it would be heretical to trade them. When I made the remark as forgot that Hildenerger had been promoted to AA, although there are a couple of players drafter late that are not playing so poorly that they should be regulated to filler.

We are a rebuilding team. Therefore, trading them would be heresy. I'm not saying there isn't ever a moment when they be traded, but it sure as hell isn't now.

[Platoon]

Never happen. The billionaires are happy with the way the franchise is run, and the Pohlads can afford to look at the big picture. Ownership totally bought into the cyclical nature of mid-market teams, which in our case lasted from 2012-2014. We were in the hunt in 2015, and while 2016 has been frustrating and disappointing, it is most likely a mirage. Assuming our star power, by which I mean Sano, Buxton, and Kepler are ready to shine on day one in 2017, all will be forgiven and forgotten.

 

IMHO, when I read your post you have the years 2015 and 2016 reversed! . You are correct about the cyclical nature of sports, the structure guarantees it. The secret is to make the cycles shorter on the losing end, and longer on the winning end. That's what differentiates good management!

[The Wise One]

 

We are a rebuilding team. Therefore, trading them would be heresy. I'm not saying there isn't ever a moment when they be traded, but it sure as hell isn't now.

If you like what someone else has and someone else likes what you do not you ought to make the trade. Realistically of the 17 pitchers over 25 that have pitched in AA, there isn't a major league starter amongst them, Maybe a couple of useful relievers in that group. A talented pitcher by trade for 3-4 years (a bird in hand) is far more valuable than the 17 birds that are flocking out in the bush

[RedBull34]

If you like what someone else has and someone else likes what you do not you ought to make the trade. Realistically of the 17 pitchers over 25 that have pitched in AA, there isn't a major league starter amongst them, Maybe a couple of useful relievers in that group. A talented pitcher by trade for 3-4 years (a bird in hand) is far more valuable than the 17 birds that are flocking out in the bush

Who cares about the org filler? Obviously when I was talking about not wanting to trade AA Pitchers, I was talking about the actual prospects. Look at who I named.

 

Yea if Beane had a stroke and decided that he had to have Eades and Bencomo, then by all means go get Gray.

 

But since the only Pitchers that could get Gray are guys like Jay or Gonsalves (and probably 3 of them, with more as well), I'm not interested.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm not sure where else to put this, but here's a trade thought:

 

Suzuki and Santana to Texas for Jurickson Profar. Is that a realistic trade package?

 

My other thought / priority...catching prospects. What is the best catching prospect (that isn't far from the majors) that the Twins could acquire in the next 10 days? Which of the trading chips would net Austin Barnes from the Dodgers? Dodgers are hurting for pitching as they are all getting injured. Would Santana for Barnes be feasible?

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'm not sure where else to put this, but here's a trade thought:

Suzuki and Santana to Texas for Jurickson Profar. Is that a realistic trade package?

My other thought / priority...catching prospects. What is the best catching prospect (that isn't far from the majors) that the Twins could acquire in the next 10 days? Which of the trading chips would net Austin Barnes from the Dodgers?

 

That is not even close to a realistic trade package. 

[amjgt]

theringer.com did a roughly 10,000 word article on all things trade deadline related and, unless I missed it, there were literally zero mentions of the Twins or any of our players.

[AlwaysinModeration]

That is not even close to a realistic trade package.

I presume you mean Suzuki and Santana wouldn't be nearly enough to get Profar.

 

A recent MLB Trade Rumors post talks about how the Rangers are getting heavy interest in Profar, and might consider moving him since they have Andrus at SS. The post says the Rangers might think Odirizzi, Moore, or Lucroy might be targets; SP and C are what they are looking for.

 

My thinking is give them both, and it might be enough.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I presume you mean Suzuki and Santana wouldn't be nearly enough to get Profar.

A recent MLB Trade Rumors post talks about how the Rangers are getting heavy interest in Profar, and might consider moving him since they have Andrus at SS. The post says the Rangers might think Odirizzi, Moore, or Lucroy might be targets; SP and C are what they are looking for.

My thinking is give them both, and it might be enough.

 

It is not enough. They want an impact player in his prime for Profar, not an average starter in his 30s and a subpar catcher.

[Shaitan]

Also, you always overpay for a C, SS, or CF because these positions featuring a fully rounded (read: player who can hit) are rare.

 

I think you'd have to give up a Kepler caliber prospect or an all-star (not Nunez) for Profar. 

 

Also not sure it makes sense. Middle infield seems somewhat set in MN for the first time this century.