Article: Reviewing The 2016 Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Propsects

[Seth Stohs]

In February, Twins Daily published its annual pre-season Top 20 Minnesota Twins prospect rankings. As we get to the middle of July and the big league All-Star Game tonight, today we take a look at how the top 20 has performed in 2016. As you’ll see, several players have increased their prospect status with strong starts. Injuries have affected a couple of players and a couple of guys may drop some. But for the most part, the prospects have played well this year.

 

Tonight, Major League Baseball will showcase its 2016 All-Star Game. I think it’s pretty neat that most of minor league baseball shuts down for a day, allowing its players to watch the game. (The GCL Twins play this morning, and the Lookouts have a game tonight) It’s a good reminder of what they are striving for, getting to the big leagues and maybe getting a moment like Eduardo Nunez will get tonight.Let’s take a quick look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 prospects have done so far in 2016.

 

20. Jake Reed, RHP, 23

 

After posting a 6.23 ERA in Chattanooga a year ago, Reed struggled out of the gates again in 2016. However in his last 19 games (31.1 innings), he has a 2.87 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. His control has been much better. That run dropped his season ERA to 4.15. Still just 23, Reed throws hard and gets a lot of movement on his pitches. He has averaged a solid 3.4 BB/9 and has a very good 10.0 K/9.

19. Randy Rosario, LHP, 22

 

 

 

 

In his first full season back after Tommy John surgery, Rosario has had some ups and downs this year. The 22-year-old is 5-5 with a 3.25 ERA in 13 starts this year with the Miracle. In 69.1 innings, he has 22 walks to go with 44 strikeouts. Like Reed, Rosario has been much better of late. In his last five starts, he is 3-0 with a 2.51 ERA. The left-hander throws hard and has good secondary stuff. He’s just been inconsistent. He was added to the 40-man roster last fall.

 

18. Lewin Diaz, 1B, 19

 

 

 

 

Diaz finished last year by hitting .167 in 14 games with Elizabethton. However, of his eight hits, three of them were home runs. The 19-year-old returned to the E-Twins in 2016. He is hitting .263. He has ten hits on a the season including six doubles, a triple and two home runs. At 6-3 and about 250 pounds, Diaz is going to need to keep mashing to work his way up the ladder.

17. Engelb Vielma, SS, 22

 

 

 

 

Vielma was invited to big league spring training in 2016, largely due to his defensive reputation. He just turned 22 and has played in 43 games for the Lookouts. Unfortunately, he has spent two stints on the disabled list already this season. However, he is hitting .276/.325/.322 (.648) with three doubles and two triples. At 5-11 and just 155 pounds, Vielma isn’t going to hit for power at all, but if he can play good defense and hit around .275 and get on base around .325, he could have a solid major league future because of his glove.

 

16. Taylor Rogers, LHP, 25

 

 

 

 

Rogers had worked his way up the ladder, one step at a time. After a season of starting in Rochester last year, he was added to the 40-man roster and given an opportunity to compete for a big league job this spring. He began in Rochester, but a week into the season Glen Perkins went on the DL and Rogers came up. He’s been up and down a couple of times, but he is now 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA in 27.2 innings (24 appearances) out of the Twins bullpen. In his last 10 outings (12.1 innings), he has not allowed a run. In that stretch he has allowed 11 hits, walked one and struck out 14. True to his minor league form, Rogers has been especially tough on left-handed bats. They have hit just .167/.186/.286 (.472) off of him so far. At 25, Rogers has a chance to be very good for a long time.

 

15. JT Chargois, RHP, 25

 

 

 

 

Sure his big league debut didn’t go real well and he went back to Rochester right away, but Chargois is getting close to being with the Twins full time. He began this season where he ended last year, in Chattanooga. In 11.2 innings over 11 games, he posted a 1.54 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, along with 3.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9. That earned him a promotion to Rochester where he has been even better. In 24.2 innings over 20 appearances, he has a 1.46 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He throws hard and has two secondary pitches that are on most of the time. He’s ready and is just waiting for a chance again.

14. Jermaine Palacios, SS, 19

 

 

 

 

Palacios came out of nowhere a year ago. In his US debut, he began by hitting .421 over 106 plate appearances in the GCL. He moved up to Elizabethton and hit .336 over 145 plate appearances. He was pushed to Cedar Rapids at the start of this season and struggled out of the gate. Overall, he is now hitting .212/.262/.270 (.532) with seven doubles, two triples and a home run. Surprisingly, his defense at shortstop has been real solid (.953 fielding percentage). He turns 20 later this week. Looking for silver linings, Palacios has hit .321 with three multi-hit games in his last six games to push his batting average over the Mendoza Line he’s been straddling most of the season.

 

13. Wander Javier, SS, 17

 

 

 

 

Javier was the big international signing a year ago when he was inked to a $4 million deal. The plan was for him to spend this whole season in the Dominican Summer League. The 17-year-old played seven games before pulling his hamstring and being out just over two weeks. He returned and played in parts of two games before re-aggravating the same injury. He now hasn’t played in about a week. However, when he has played he has shown his talent. He’s hitting .308/.400/.654 (1.004) with three doubles and two home runs among his eight hits.

 

12. Lewis Thorpe, LHP, 20

 

 

 

 

In spring, it looked like Thorpe was on schedule and hopefully ready to make a return to an affiliate in mid-June or so. Unfortunately, he was slowed for over a month due to a bout with mono. Having lost strength, he has had to take a couple of steps back and has restarted a throwing program. At this point, it will be interesting to see if he’s able to return before the end of the season or if he’ll need to look to 2017 for his return.

 

11. Adam Brett Walker, OF, 24

 

 

 

 

We have a pretty good idea of what Adam Brett Walker is as a hitter. He can hit a lot of home runs and drive in a lot of runs. Despite his low contact rate, he has been productive and the Twins have continued to push him a year at a time. After being added to the 40-man roster following last season, Walker is in Rochester this year. Overall, he has hit .235/.308/.463 (.772) with 15 doubles, 16 home runs and 42 RBI for the Red Wings. He has also struck out 130 times in 321 plate appearances (40.5%). However, over his last 18 games, he has hit .328/.392/.537 (.929) with eight doubles and two homers. His strikeout rate over that time frame has been 33.8% With Walker at this point, it will be about finding a way to drop that K-rate and being more consistent.

10. Nick Burdi, RHP, 23

 

 

 

 

It has been a lost year for Burdi to this point. He ended 2015 strong in Chattanooga and in the Arizona Fall League. He was invited to spring training and impressed the coaching staff there. However, before the season, he experienced some soreness and was shut down for a couple of weeks. He rejoined the Lookouts on April 23rd. He pitched in three games before going back on the DL with a bone bruise in his humerus. He hasn’t pitched since and is in Ft. Myers on a throwing program.

 

9. Kohl Stewart, RHP, 21

 

 

 

 

In 2015, Stewart posted a 3.20 ERA in Ft. Myers. However, his peripherals were not great. So, he returned to the Miracle for the first two months of 2016 and the numbers improved. In nine starts with the Miracle, he posted a 2.61 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and he nearly doubled his K-Rate to 7.7 K/9. He has since made seven starts in AA for the Lookouts where he is 2-4 with a 4.21 ERA. No surprise as that jump from High-A to AA is a big one. He’s been inconsistent, but he has shown some flashes as well. He has four quality starts including six shutout innings in one start and seven shutout innings in another. He’s taking some lumps, but he’s making adjustments. He should spend most of 2017 with the Lookouts.

 

8. Alex Meyer, RHP, 26

 

 

 

 

What a frustrating season 2016 has been for Meyer. After a long, difficult season in 2015 in which he struggled with his control, command and confidence, Meyer began this season by starting in Rochester. He was actually pitching very well and earned a call up to the Twins to work out of their bullpen in long relief. The Twins were struggling and two starters went on the DL, so Meyer was asked to make one start. Following the start, he was optioned to Rochester so that the Twins could get an extra reliever up until Ervin Santana came off the DL and reclaimed that spot in the rotation. When Meyer got to Rochester, he didn’t feel right in his first bullpen and was shut down. That was May 3rd, and he is yet to return to the mound in a game. For those first three weeks, we again saw why many were so high on Meyer. We saw a fastball at 96-98 with a really good slider. Hopefully he can return in the second half sometime and salvage something for the season.

 

7. Jorge Polanco, SS, 23

 

 

 

 

Polanco had four cups of coffee between the 2014 and 2015 seasons with the Twins. They were typically two or three day stints and only really due to 40-man roster issues. It was understandable that he played sparingly for a day or two. This spring, he has already been up twice. This time his time was extended to a couple of weeks, and he sat, which made no sense. Still, when he did get some playing time, he hit .231/.344/.462 (.805) with three doubles and his first MLB homer. In Rochester, he has hit .283/.352/.476 (.829) with 12 doubles, six triples and seven home runs. He will play in Wednesday’s AAA All-Star game. He just turned 23 last week, and he is ready for a big league job. He is also out of options in 2017, so it would be nice for him to get some actual big league playing time soon.

6. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, 22

 

 

 

 

The southpaw just turned 22 last week. He finished the 2015 season going 7-2 with a 2.61 ERA in Ft. Myers over 15 starts. He returned to the Miracle in 2016 and made another 11 starts. He went 5-4 with a 2.33 ERA. However his WHIP dropped from 1.31 to 0.96. His walk rate dropped from 4.3 to 2.7. His strikeout rate increased from 6.2 to 9.0. In other words, while the high-level numbers look fairly similar, Gonsalves showed great improvement. At the end of June, he earned his promotion to AA. Like Stewart, it has been a struggle through three starts in AA for Gonsalves. He is 2-1 but ha a 4.91 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. Yes, it is very small sample size and part of the problem is his 6.8 BB/9 rate. Offsetting that, however, is an 11.7 K/9 rate. The left-hander throws his fastball mainly in the low-90s, but in Ft. Myers, he was clocked a couple of times at 97. He added a pitch in the offseason and looks to continue to build his prospect resume.

 

5. Tyler Jay, LHP, 22

 

 

 

 

The Twins top pick in 2015 began this season in Ft. Myers and began making his transition to starting pitcher. Jay turned 22 right at the beginning of the season. With the Miracle, he was up and down in April. He was tremendous in May, and he was some moments in June. Overall in Ft. Myers, he went 5-5 with a 2.84 ERA. In 69.2 innings, he gave up 64 hits, walked 21 and struck out 68. However, he really had just two clunkers and was very solid in his other starts. He earned a promotion to AA Chattanooga where he will continue to start, at least for a little while. He gave up four runs in five innings in his AA debut over the weekend. He’s blessed with a strong, mid-90s fastball with life and very good secondary pitches. To this point, his transition has gone smoothly.

4. Nick Gordon, SS, 20

 

 

 

 

Gordon has a solid 2015 season in Cedar Rapids, his first full minor league season. He hit .277/.336/.360 (.696) with 23 doubles, seven triples and a home run. He added about 15 pounds during the offseason and has shown improvement at the plate in 2016 to this point, including a good increase in his slugging percentage despite moving up to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. He has hit .296/.343/.411 (.754) with 16 doubles, five triples and two home runs in 70 games. He had quite a few errors early in the season, but now has a .954 fielding percentage at shortstop. Gordon has tremendous tools and work ethic. The additional strength should help him continue to perform through the second half. Like most 20-year-olds, he’ll just have to be more consistent throughout the long season.

 

3. Max Kepler, OF, 23

 

 

 

 

I think it’s fair to say that Kepler is figuring some things out at the big league level this year. Last year, he filled up the stat line in Chattanooga on his way to the Southern League MVP and a September call up after leading the Lookouts to the league title. He showed well in spring training and went down to AAA to start the year. However, he came up early in the season and like Polanco found himself sitting most of the time. He was up for just over two weeks and had two hits (both doubles) in 12 at-bats. He went back to Rochester and after an initial struggle, he started hitting again. He returned to the big leagues on June 1st and has been playing every day since. Since then, he is hitting .244/.322/.496 (.818) with nine doubles, eight home runs and 33 RBI in 37 games. A tremendous athlete, Kepler should continue to get better and add more to his big league game.

 

2. Jose Berrios, RHP, 22

 

 

 

 

We all wanted to see Berrios with the big league club last year at this time, but he didn’t come up and put together another terrific minor league campaign. He struggled mightily in spring training and in his first two Rochester starts. He had one strong start for the Red Wings and was called up to the Twins in late April, before his 22nd birthday. He made four starts and posted an ERA over 10 with a WHIP over 2.10. He struck out 20 batters in 15 innings and we saw the pitches that can (and likely will) make him a terrific big league pitcher for a long time. He showed a fastball 94-97 with movement. He showed, at times, a devastating breaking ball. And, he threw a few changeups that looked like Bugs Bunny pitches. But he walked 12 batters and got behind on others and that trend had to be corrected. He returned to Rochester and worked. Overall in Rochester, he is 8-4 with a 2.59 ERA. However in his last five starts for the Red Wings, he has a 1.26 ERA. In that run, he had outings of six innings with two hits, eight innings with three hits, seven innings with one hit and a complete game with four hits. In other words, his time will come again very soon, I would think.

 

1. Byron Buxton, OF, 22

 

 

 

 

Bryon Buxton continues to flash the types of skills that make it easy to see why he was twice the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Few are able to run like he is. Few have as strong of an arm as he is. He is fearless - maybe to a fault - in center field, helping his pitchers with his great range. To this point, however, we have not seen him able to hit consistently at the big league level. We have seen him crush AAA, so at this point it is about maintaining his confidence and continuing to put him in the lineup every day. In 29 AAA games, he hit .336/.403/.603 (1.007) with nine doubles, two triples and six homers. In 48 games with the Twins, he has hit .212/.253/.364 (.617) with 12 doubles, four triples and a home runs. He has 32 hits and 17 of them have gone for extra bases. Why? That speed turns singles into doubles. Buxton will be a star. We just have to be patient enough to wait for it to happen.

So there you have it, a quick review of the Twins Daily pre-2016 Top 20 Prospect rankings and how those guys have done through the All Star break this year.

 

ON THE RISE

 

For the most part, the progress with the prospects has been positive. There are a couple of guys who have had tough 2016 seasons, and injuries are always a factor in that. That is somewhat offset by a few guys who were outside our Top 20 who have really taken major steps forward and would likely be in a Top 20 ranking today.

 

Daniel Palka was just promoted to AAA Rochester and has 23 total home runs on the season after hitting two in his Red Wings debut. Zach Granite has done everything you’d ask of a leadoff hitter in Chattanooga as well as play good defense in center field. Mitch Garver's stock as a prospect continues to rise. LaMonte Wade had a great start in Cedar Rapids and is now doing well in Ft. Myers. Alex Kirilloff is off to a solid pro debut in Elizabethton.

 

On the mound, Felix Jorge has become one of the most consistent pitchers in the organization and made his AA debut last night. Fernando Romero returned to the mound after missing nearly two years. He was throwing in the mid-90s and after a handful of starts in Cedar Rapids, he has now done well in Ft. Myers.

 

Meanwhile, Trevor Hildenberger continues to mow down hitters in AA and should move up shortly, either to Rochester or directly to the big leagues. Meanwhile, Jason Wheeler overcame a rough 2015 season and has pitched better than ever. In fact, he’ll be the starter for the International League in Wednesday’s AAA All- Star game.

 

Feel free to discuss any of these prospects and ask any questions that you may have.

Overall, it’s been a positive season for most of the Twins top prospects, and it’s exciting to know that more are on the way.

 

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[mikelink45]

I really appreciate your reviews.  It is hard to comment when all my knowledge comes from your postings, but I wonder if Alex Meyer is ready to drop off your list along with Reed.  It seems as if your on the rise list needs to make it in the top 20 and if so, who besides the two I listed would drop off?

[Halsey Hall]

Good review, Seth. 

[Vanimal46]

To piggyback off of mikelink's post, I imagine Meyer's going to tumble a few spots on the list, and potentially Reed off completely to make room for the on the rise guys. Would Randy Rosario also be considered to fall off the list?

I've read your reviews that he throws hard with good secondary stuff. You would think that should generate more strikeouts than he has so far, right? Is he just not getting his k pitch in the right location? Or more of a pitch to contact guy?

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks for the update. Injuries....ouch.....

[Rosterman]

And now we can also look at Alex Wimmers MAYBE finally fitting in somewhere. Or will he be the next Anthony Slama?

[Seth Stohs]

 

And now we can also look at Alex Wimmers MAYBE finally fitting in somewhere. Or will he be the next Anthony Slama?

 

I just tweeted about him this morning. 

 

I'd call him up August 1st. He can become a free agent at the end of the season. I think they should see his recent success and give him a two-month tryout to evaluate whether to keep him on the 40-man roster or let him become a free agent.

 

 

[nater79a]

Seth didn't mention him, but Mason Melotakis is another "riser" that's been coming on strong. Pitching out of the Chattanooga bullpen, and coming off TJ surgery, he came out of the gate a tad slow.

 

In April/May, Melotakis had these numbers:

14.1 IP,  3.77 ERA, 18 H, 7.5 K/9, 1.53 WHIP

 

However, since June 1 he's really picked it up:

9.2 IP,  0.00 ERA,  7 H,  12 K/9,  0.93 WHIP

 

Someone worth watching, I believe.

 

 

 

[bluechipper]

Adam Brett Walker might be another guy that falls off top 20 lists this offseason. If he is what he is, the 40% K rates with a .300 OBP and poor defense isn't going to get it done.

[DocBauer]

Honestly, Walker has done better than I thought he would in his first go-round at AAA. He's not ready yet, but he's surprised me.

 

Melotakis is a guy I've had my eye on for a while. If not for injury, he'd be at AAA already, if not the ML level.

 

I'd like to see Wimmers, Boshers,Chargois and Hildenberger all up at some point this season. But at this point, and I can't believe I'm saying this, there is no room for all of them. Not until trades or September anyway.

[mnrecruiterguy]

Seth: Palacios has struggled this year in comparison to his 2 previous stops. How much younger is he than the competition? 

[DJL44]

I will be surprised if Walker has a better career than Mike Restovich.

[Vanimal46]

 

I will be surprised if Walker has a better career than Mike Restovich.

I will be surprised if Walker has more than 750 career ABs in the major leagues. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

I will be surprised if Walker has more than 750 career ABs in the major leagues. 

 

I will be surprised if Walker has more than 100 career PAs in the Major Leagues. Dude can't hit or throw. 

 

My biggest riser is Palka, easily. His upside is limited but he is looking like a solid platoon option (not that the Twins know how to use such players, but I can't hold that against Palka). 

[Vanimal46]

 

I will be surprised if Walker has more than 100 career PAs in the Major Leagues. Dude can't hit or throw. 

 

My biggest riser is Palka, easily. His upside is limited but he is looking like a solid platoon option (not that the Twins know how to use such players, but I can't hold that against Palka). 

Yeah I was trying to give him the benefit of the doubt with the 750 PAs. I figured there's a chance some bottom feeding team could give him 400-500 PAs as a 27-28 year old to see if he can be an MLB player.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth: Palacios has struggled this year in comparison to his 2 previous stops. How much younger is he than the competition? 

 

He'll turn 20 next week. The average hitter in the MWL is 21.6. Average pitcher is 21.9. On Opening Day, Luis Arraez hadn't yet turned 19 and was 5th youngest in the league. Palacios was just outside the Top 10. Most players are 21 and 22. It's where most college guys start their first full season and they're already 22 usually, so unless they're a top pick or a top reliever they'll be there. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth didn't mention him, but Mason Melotakis is another "riser" that's been coming on strong. Pitching out of the Chattanooga bullpen, and coming off TJ surgery, he came out of the gate a tad slow.

 

In April/May, Melotakis had these numbers:

14.1 IP,  3.77 ERA, 18 H, 7.5 K/9, 1.53 WHIP

 

However, since June 1 he's really picked it up:

9.2 IP,  0.00 ERA,  7 H,  12 K/9,  0.93 WHIP

 

Someone worth watching, I believe.

 

I posted this on Twitter earlier today:

 

 

 

 

[nater79a]

 

I posted this on Twitter earlier today:

 

 

 

 

Must have missed those tweets. 

 

Good to see Melotakis picking it up as the season goes on.  A left-hander to boot!

[John Kelsey]

Reed has actually been pretty good lately. Burdi should be the guy to fall a bit. 

[h2oface]

Definitely time to update. Buxton (280) and Kepler (150) have too many at bats to qualify any longer. That is, unless we want to make special rules/exceptions so Buxton can be a prospect forever. ;-)

[h2oface]

Burdi & Meyer. Pitching in the Twins system can be like traveling in the Bermuda Triangle. One day they are pitching, and then they disappear and you never see them again.

[NDTimIrish]

This review really depressed me. Even with the graduations, it seems like our vaunted farm system that has propped up hopes for 4+ years has been, at the minimum, "overrated".