Article: Breaking Good: Positive Vibes At The All-Star Break

[Nick Nelson]

The first three months of this 2016 season were forgettable to say the least. But here in July, as we head into the All-Star break, the Minnesota Twins are finally starting to show some positive signs.

 

In fact, there are more than you might suspect. Let's run through some of the things we can feel good about during baseball's midsummer respite.1. The Twins are finally hitting like we hoped they would.

 

The optimistic view of this team, entering the season, was that a powerful offense and adequate pitching staff could make them competitive. That did not come to fruition for much of the first half, but over the past few weeks it has. In their past 20 games, the Twins have gone 12-8 while averaging 6.7 runs, hitting .288/.357/.510 with 32 homers. Five of those wins have come against a Texas team with the AL's best record. It's too little, too late for this year's squad, already buried by 20 games in the AL Central, but splendid to see nonetheless.

 

2. No stopping Nunez.

 

Regardless of how you view the sustainability of Eduardo Nunez's brilliance, this has clearly been a great development. Nunez was a non-tender candidate in the offseason as a decent hitter with no real defensive position, but now he'll represent Minnesota in the All Star Game on Tuesday. It's a well deserved honor, because the 29-year-old has been legitimately excellent and continues to show no signs of slowing down. He has turned himself into much more of an asset than anyone would have suspected.

 

3. Miguel Sano is back at third base and hitting.

 

I don't think I'm going out on a limb when I say that Sano is the most important piece in the Twins lineup. He was heating up before going down with a hamstring strain at the end of May, with four homers in six games leading up to the injury, and has picked up nicely since returning by posting a .929 OPS with three homers and nine RBI in 10 games. Plus, he's back at the position where he belongs and making some slick plays. It'll be interesting to see what happens when Trevor Plouffe returns from the DL.

 

4. Max Kepler has been wunderbar!

 

We've grown accustomed to introductory struggles from highly touted young talents. Maybe that's why Kepler's initial surge has been so shocking. Or maybe it's because it is truly astonishing to see a wiry 23-year-old teeing off against major-league pitchers the way he has. Through 46 games in his first real taste MLB competition, Kepler has an .802 OPS, with a 600-PA pace for 29 homers and 121 RBI.

 

5. Pitching reinforcements continue to reinforce readiness.

 

Obviously, pitching is the area where Minnesota has the furthest to go in order to return to respectability. The jury is out on pretty much every one of their starters, and the bullpen is an amorphous mystery. So it is good news that the organization's best prospects for each unit are doing all the right things. J.T. Chargois pitched in the All-Star Futures Game on Sunday night at Petco Park. Jose Berrios will represent Rochester at the Triple-A All-Star Game on Wednesday in Charlotte.

 

Each has fizzled during brief MLB stints this year, but they are showing every sign of mastery at the highest level of the minors. We will likely see both back in Minnesota soon, and the second half will a provide a relatively low-leverage setting to learn the ropes. If both catch on, the outlook for the 2017 team brightens immensely.

 

6. Robbie Grossman looks like a find.

 

Grossman has now been with the Twins for nearly two full months. His initial hot-hitting period has long since worn off. Since a scorching first couple of weeks with the new club, his BABIP has come down to Earth and his average has dropped precipitously. Yet, after 195 plate appearances, the switch-hitting outfielder still has a .421 on-base percentage. He shows the ability to stay productive offensively even while his bat sags, and that's invaluable for a part-time/bench role.

 

7. Sophomore slump-busters?

 

Following an impressive rookie showing in 2014, Kennys Vargas endured a dreadful second season that included a demotion straight to Double-A. He was never in consideration for a roster spot this spring and appeared to be on the verge of exiting Minnesota's plans. He wasn't hitting much at Triple-A this year, but he was showing a much improved approach, just as he did last year in Rochester. That has translated thus far during his latest stint in the majors, as Vargas has five walks and two strikeouts through 23 plate appearances. The 25-year-old's power is undeniable and has been on display with all eight of his hits going for extra bases. If he's controlling the strike zone he is a weapon with dominant offensive ability.

 

Then, there's Eddie Rosario. He's still amidst his sophomore season, which started out with a thud as he limped to a .532 OPS in April and May. He went to Triple-A, raked to the tune of an .881 OPS in 41 games, and has gone 12-for-31 with five extra-base hits since being recalled. He is rarely whiffing. I know some people will forever be skeptical of Rosario due to his overt and often hazardous aggressiveness, but if you acknowledge that he'll never be a patient hitter he is doing everything you could ask for right now.

 

8. A fledgling power pen?

 

If Trevor May, Ryan Pressly and Michael Tonkin hold their pre-break K paces through the end of the year, here's where they would finish on the Twins leaderboard for strikeouts by a reliever since 2009, Joe Nathan's last full season as closer:

 

1. Michael Tonkin: 98

2. Trevor May: 81

3. Ryan Pressly: 81

4. Glen Perkins, 2012: 78

5. Glen Perkins, 2013: 77

6. Casey Fien, 2013: 73

7. Anthony Swarzak, 2013: 69

8. Glen Perkins, 2011: 65

9. Jesse Crain, 2010: 62

10. Jared Burton, 2013: 61

 

There's been nothing fluky about the achievement of these impressive and, in recent history, unprecedented strikeout totals for the back-end relievers. May, Pressly and Tonkin all bring upper 90s gas, and blow people away when they're on. Obviously, the results for each have been uneven, but seeing the Twins rank in the top half of the majors in bullpen K/9 is a remarkable and much-needed turnaround.

 

This unit actually might have the makings of a power pen, especially with arms like Chargois and Nick Burdi on the way.

 

9. Tyler Duffey looks to be straightened out.

 

What to make of Duffey's month-long skid from May 20th through June 21st, in which he was clobbered for a 9.17 ERA over seven starts, pushing him to the brink of a demotion? It's hard to say, but it is the lone stretch of poor performance that he's had over the past two seasons, and he seems to have moved past it. Duffey has won three straight starts with a 2.25 ERA, averaging a strikeout per inning. His rebound certainly counters the narrative that he was a ticking time bomb once big-league hitters figured out his curve.

 

10. Something has gotten into Kurt Suzuki.

 

After going 3-for-5 with a pair of doubles on Sunday, Suzuki is now hitting .294/.332/.447. Among AL catchers with 200 plate appearances, his .294 average ranks first and his .778 OPS third. If one of the catchers on the All-Star roster were to come up with an injury, Suzuki would have a very legit claim as the top replacement option. This from a guy who was one of the worst starting catchers in the game last year, and entered this June with a .559 OPS.

 

The rejuvenation bolsters Suzuki's value as a trade chip, especially given the dire nature of the catcher position around the league. The Twins might not be inclined to move him though. They have nothing – and I mean nothing – in place behind the plate for 2017. The idea of activating Suzuki's $6 million option now suddenly seems rather appealing. Way more than it did a month ago, anyway.

 

 

~~~

This isn't merely scrounging for silver linings among the muck. These developments are truly encouraging and optimism inspiring. The first half was largely a grim spectacle for Twins fans but as we reflect here during the midway breather, there really are a lot of factors to feel pretty dang good about based on the way things are trending.

 

What others would you add to the list?

 

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[Otwins]

I think our outfield defense is much improved since the start of the year. "Trading" Arcia, moving Sano back to infield and using Buxton more than Santana has the outfield defense looking solid.  

[Comrade Bork]

I'm so bothered by the fact that my mental feeling of the twins is turning happier because of a few good games despite still being cave dwellers in the standings. I want to be mad with where we are at yet it fun to see the young guys starting to flex. Are they making Kepler jerseys yet?

[Dantes929]

Does everyone really think this is the same team that we saw the first 75 games?.   Then, no one was getting on base, no one was hitting with runners in scoring position, no one was hitting home runs with guys on base and no one was saving games.     Literally 2 out of 25 guys were playing to their abilities and that was Nunez and Grossman.   No pitchers were doing well.  Zero.     Now we are seeing what can happen when all the wheels are turning.   That won't last either but something in between and something better than 27-54 will result.     Anyone else think this was the worst possible time for the AS break to happen?    Two weeks ago I was anxiously awaiting it since I viewed it as a restart button.   Now I dread it.

I don't need too many changes.    Deal Plouffe and Nlasco and bring up Berrios.    

[mumoo13]

Why isn't Grossman considered a candidate for a full-time role? Is his defense that bad?

[Shane Wahl]

The feel goodness is heightened by the fact that there may be trade partners for Suzuki and Grossman now.

[stringer bell]

 

The feel goodness is heightened by the fact that there may be trade partners for Suzuki and Grossman now.

Grossman is young (26), cheap and under team control for four years after this one. Keep him around!

[clutterheart]

 

Positive

"Pos-i-Tive?"

 

What is the word doing on Twins daily?   

[mazeville]

 

The feel goodness is heightened by the fact that there may be trade partners for Suzuki and Grossman now.

 

I agree. Trade Suzuki now. But keep Grossman. He gets on base and that's something this team needs. There's no problem with him as a fourth outfielder. 

[WiesbadenDAN]

 

I'm so bothered by the fact that my mental feeling of the twins is turning happier because of a few good games despite still being cave dwellers in the standings. I want to be mad with where we are at yet it fun to see the young guys starting to flex. Are they making Kepler jerseys yet?

Yes they are making his jersey and I have to buy at least 5 for my German family members.  This is going to be expensive!

 

http://www.twinsmlbshop.com/search?controller=search&orderby=position&orderway=desc&search_query=kepler&submit_search=

 

[Blackjack]

Another positive sign: E. Santana even without roids, is becoming the innings eater and reliable starter that the Twins were hoping for when they signed him.  Winning ballgames starts with reliable starting pitching and he has provided that lately.

[hybridbear]

I don't like the idea of keeping Suzuki beyond this season. He should definitely be traded right now while his value is higher. Centeno seems somewhat adequate with the bat, and while his defense seems to be lacking, hopefully John Ryan Murphy can be called back up & provide at least hit better than the Mendoza line...

[mikelink45]

Nice finish to the end of the first half, but we need perspective so we do not go over the emotional cliff again.  The article says this was against the first place Rangers which is accurate, but who were their starting pitchers?  Will the three we saw be in the rotation in a month (or week)?  They are getting their real starters back and when they do the situation could be changing drastically or they will not stay in first place.  We have had a nice run of poor opposition and that will change.  I love the idea that this will spur the team to the same heights for the second half, but they have disappointed so much this year that I want to be cautious before that old bandwagon rumbles down the road.  

 

My old fear from this spurt is that TR will sit back now and say everything is great just like he expected it to be.

[Thrylos]

Reality:

20 games out of the division lead
24 games under .500
1 game better than the worst team in baseball
the worst team in the American League
5 games under their Pythagorean W-L
on pace for 103 losses
15th/15 in ERA in the AL
15th in Hits given in the AL

 

The rest are lipstick  (on the most hideous pig since the franchise moved to MN, btw)

 

The problem is that the FO might think that they have something in their hands and might refuse to trade the likes of Tonkin, Pressly, Suzuki, Grossman, Santana (take your pick), Nolasco, Dozier, Nunez (and I might even add Vargas with that mess they made with the Park acquisition to the list).

 

The opportunity is to sell high.  Would they?  Based on past experience I doubt it.   The above are not part of the future and they might bring back a couple players who might be...  

Edited July 11, 2016 by Thrylos

[Rosterman]

Some of it is that players in question have to start doing something if they want to keep their jobs, find jobs, or be wanted by another team (or even the Twins).

 

But when you look at the bigger picture, the Twins are still dead last. They have some overpriced players (Plouffe, Suzuki, Nolasco, Santana) and the appeal these guys MIGHT have to other teams can be underwritten by possibly equal candidates for less dollars elsewhere.

 

Plus teams CAN play a wait-and-see what the Twins do, or just see what the Twins will do in the off-season.

 

The Twins major issues are:

 

What to do about catching. They have to see Murphy up here. They will need to protect Garver AND Turner come the off-season. They don't need to protect Centeno. They don't need to pay Suzuki $6 million.

 

Crowded outfield. Suddenly the Twins may have another centerfielder as a trade chip (Buxton). Wait, don't go there. Rosario, Grossman, Kepler are more than enough right now. Santana can also play out there. Walker and Palka are in the wings. Who is this Granite guy. Hummm...maybe they can trade a highly regarded prospect centerfielder?!

 

1B/DH. Took care of the Arcia issue. Vargas is showing life...he likes those major league paychecks and meal money. Park will be back and we can see what we have here. Happily, once we pass the posting fee (which was in this year's budget, I hope, and not prorated) we CAN take a bath on him if need be. Mauer is making up for all the singles Vargas won't hit, while Vargas is doing the extra bases we expect from a first base guy. Palka could play first base. Kepler did play some first base. Plouffe could transition into first base at $10 million a year (or be a supersub. 

 

We have a mess in the inner infield. What do do with Polanco is the magic question, although he can just be a bench guy for at least a season while we delay the Dozier decision. But what of Nunez? Regular at shortstop? Where do we play Escobar (supersub). Is Santana in that mix, too.

 

I think we see right now, on the field and on the bench, the 25-man roster for next year with a change in catcher, a decision on Plouffe, being the only significant off-season offensive changes. We will still have Joe doing what he does in 2017.

 

Pitching is another fine mess. At least Nolasco and Milone are increasing their value, possibly, to another team. But we will be stuck with Hughes and Perkins coming off injuries.

 

Hey, what about this WImmers huy as closer at AAA. What gives? Now if we can get Alex Meyer up and running. I can start to dream.

 

[Thrylos]

re: Duffey

 

a. he still cannot get past the 6th inning

b. his "improvement" the last month is due to a .235 BABIP in that time.  His K/9 dropped to 6.9, however during that period; both facts are pretty bothersome.

c. but the most bothersome facts is that if you asked 20 people in the game, 18 (*) would tell you that they'd rather have May than Duffey (and his one pitch) in the rotation, because Duffey is better suited for the pen and can actually be pretty good there...  

 

(*) the other two are either working or rooting for the Twins

[troyhobbs]

I'm so confused..... While watching Twins baseball has become fun again I too worry that this hot streak may have come at a bad time as it could serve as an incentive for the FO to stand pat at the trade deadline (once again). Hopefully this does not lead to more extensions and less transactions but at least the 25 man doesn't look like the absolute disaster it did in the not-so distant past.

[Dantes929]

 

Nice finish to the end of the first half, but we need perspective so we do not go over the emotional cliff again.  The article says this was against the first place Rangers which is accurate, but who were their starting pitchers?  Will the three we saw be in the rotation in a month (or week)?  They are getting their real starters back and when they do the situation could be changing drastically or they will not stay in first place.  We have had a nice run of poor opposition and that will change.  I love the idea that this will spur the team to the same heights for the second half, but they have disappointed so much this year that I want to be cautious before that old bandwagon rumbles down the road.  

 

My old fear from this spurt is that TR will sit back now and say everything is great just like he expected it to be.

The next cliff is always around the corner good or bad.   While we have feasted on some poor pitching I don't think it is fair to say that the last 16 games they have seen pitching substantially different than what they saw the first 68 games.   Also, Duffey, Gibson and Santana gave us absolutely nothing the first 68 games but are now pitching well and our relief staff is leaps and bounds better than what May, Jepsen, Fien and Perkins gave us to start the season.     I agree that the problems in Texas have helped us but we did score off Hamels better than anyone else.    Helped by a down swing in Texas but probably hurt the rest of the year by playing teams when they were hot.

[Vanimal46]

In the spirit of keeping this thread positive, any day where Sano is at 3B is a great day. I hope to see 65-70 more great days the rest of the season. 

[Craig Arko]

In the spirit of keeping this thread positive, any day where Sano is at 3B is a great day. I hope to see 65-70 more great days the rest of the season.

 

Sano at 3rd and Kepler in RF. Good times.

[Nick Nelson]

 

re: Duffey

 

a. he still cannot get past the 6th inning

b. his "improvement" the last month is due to a .235 BABIP in that time.  His K/9 dropped to 6.9, however during that period; both facts are pretty bothersome.

c. but the most bothersome facts is that if you asked 20 people in the game, 18 (*) would tell you that they'd rather have May than Duffey (and his one pitch) in the rotation, because Duffey is better suited for the pen and can actually be pretty good there...  

OK. So one of these is false (Duffey has pitched past the 6th in 5 of 14 starts), one is irrelevant (news flash: BABIP and K-rate tend to fluctuate over the season!) and one is made up. Very convincing.   

[Mike Sixel]

I am definitely more positive, now that Sano is at 3B and Kepler is in RF. Those are both good things. I, for one, can feel happier about the team, while also wondering how sustainable it is, or whether guys should be dealt......but for this thread?

 

Yay on all those things Nick posted about.....much more fun to "watch" the game on gamecast when they are playing well.

[rghrbek]

I am really enjoying watching the young kids play.   Nick, great points about the bullpen, and our guys who are on pace to finish with a nice amount of strikeouts.

 

I fear, like others on this thread, that our FO will over value some of the positivity, and thus not fully explore all trade options, with those players that really don't project to be major contributors, 2 or 3 years from now.

[70charger]

 

I'm so confused..... While watching Twins baseball has become fun again I too worry that this hot streak may have come at a bad time as it could serve as an incentive for the FO to stand pat at the trade deadline (once again). Hopefully this does not lead to more extensions and less transactions but at least the 25 man doesn't look like the absolute disaster it did in the not-so distant past.

 

What are they? 20 games out of first place? I haven't checked and don't want it to darken my mood. In any case, there's no chance in hell that they decide to stand pat at the deadline because the second half might be less-than-tragic.

 

Now, whether there's a market for all the players that we clearly want to offload, that's an entirely different question.

[ThejacKmp]

I think the keeping Suzuki vs. trading him is a moot point since he has very little chance of vesting his 2017 option by getting 485 at bats.

 

He currently has 212 plate appearances while appearing in 59 games which comes out to about 3.5 plate appearances per game - that's a bit below the average 8 or 9 hitter (who hits about 3.8 times per game) but not unusual since catchers often are pulled for a pinch hitter or get credit for a game appearance when they only catch the last inning or two. Suzuki is unlikely to hit above the 8 hole for any contending team he is traded to.

 

Most teams have played 89 games at the break, which leaves 73 games to go. If Suzuki started 90% of his team's remaining games (that seems unlikely but could happen) and we bump him up to 4 at bats per game (again unlikely but we're creating a most-plate-appearances scenario here), he'd end up with 263 additional plate appearances. That gets him 475 for the year, still 10 under his limit. And again, that's assuming 4 plate appearances instead of 3.5 and 90% of games played. It also assumes that the team that traded for him sees him as more than a one-year solution and isn't actively trying to keep him under 485 plate appearances.

 

If the Twins want Suzuki back next year, they will be able to get him on the free agent market. Wanting him for next year is no reason not to trade him.

[ThejacKmp]

I guess you could argue that the Twins might want to keep Suzuki and try to trigger the option since it would be only 1 year and $6 million and they'd want that since they have no one. However there are a lot of holes in that:

 

(1) As indicated above, it's hard to get Suzuki to 485 plate appearances. One DL stint or even one minor injury that costs him three days and you have no shot. You'd get nothing for him and he's a free agent anyway.

 

(2) The $6 million seems about the most Suzuki's going to make this offseason on the open market. And even if it bumps up to $8 million for example, you'd have to think the Twins would value the prospect they get back more than the outside chance it costs them $2 million more to sign Suzuki.

 

(3) I guess you could argue that Suzuki is going to get more than one year as a free agent, which the Twins may not want. That still seems unlikely since he's 33 going into next year with over 1200 games on his knees and a pretty poor track record for ongoing success. He seems to be in the "1 year deal with a team/vesting option" territory from here on out. And if he isn't and some team gives him 2 guaranteed years, well, you can always get someone similar on a 1 year deal.

 

(4) The Twins don't have great internal options for next year but JRM is a decent option for a bounce-back year and Mitch Garver is doing okay in AA. Neither is amazing but either could be a backup/platoon catcher to a vet you bring in and potentially take the starting job.

 

Trade Suzuki. If they can get Palka for Hermann and Miguel Sulabran (later traded for Eduardo Nunez) for Drew Butera, they can get something worthwhile for a half-season of Suzuki.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Reality:

20 games out of the division lead
24 games under .500
1 game better than the worst team in baseball
the worst team in the American League
5 games under their Pythagorean W-L
on pace for 103 losses
15th/15 in ERA in the AL
15th in Hits given in the AL

 

The rest are lipstick  (on the most hideous pig since the franchise moved to MN, btw)

 

The problem is that the FO might think that they have something in their hands and might refuse to trade the likes of Tonkin, Pressly, Suzuki, Grossman, Santana (take your pick), Nolasco, Dozier, Nunez (and I might even add Vargas with that mess they made with the Park acquisition to the list).

 

The opportunity is to sell high.  Would they?  Based on past experience I doubt it.   The above are not part of the future and they might bring back a couple players who might be...  

 

I mean, I get some negativity towards the front office but they do get this team is not going anywhere. The front office can read the standings and is playing for next year.

 

You can make good arguments to trade and to keep Dozier/Nunez/Tonkin/Pressley but Plouffe, Suzuki, Abad and Santana will all be on the block. They won't give Santana away but the rest will be readily available. As for the former guys, I think they'll trade them if they get a nice offer and feel comfortable keeping them if not. That's probably as it should be. Dozier and Polanco are a bit messy but Dozier is tradable in the offseason if need be. Tonkin and Pressley are decent controllable relievers. Nunez depends on what you think of him going forward and what other teams are willing to pony up.

 

We make a sport out of hating the Twins FO on these blogs but you have to be really negative to think they're that out of touch. The Twins will be open to actively trading a solid 1/3 to 1/2 of the roster and a good many will go.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I mean, I get some negativity towards the front office but they do get this team is not going anywhere. The front office can read the standings and is playing for next year.

......

 

We make a sport out of hating the Twins FO on these blogs but you have to be really negative to think they're that out of touch. The Twins will be open to actively trading a solid 1/3 to 1/2 of the roster and a good many will go.

 

A good many will go? Has any team ever traded more than 2-3 veterans at this time of year? I don't know, but I doubt it has happened very often.

[Major League Ready]

 

A good many will go? Has any team ever traded more than 2-3 veterans at this time of year? I don't know, but I doubt it has happened very often.

I would be happy with a good return on 2 veterans and elated if we made trades with a reasonable return on 3 veterans, specially if the return included a good AA or AAA catching prospect and or a high upside SP.

Edited July 11, 2016 by Major Leauge Ready

[Tibs]

Jorge Polanco has an .829 OPS through 61 games in AAA