Article: Servin' Up Ervin

[jorgenswest]

I don't think the Twins can get a significant return in prospects for Santana. I think teams will see him as the route to go if they don't want to pay the prospect cost of an Odorizzi or Teheran. They might prefer taking the contract and keeping the better prospects. Even if the Twins offer to pay salary it doesn't help because they enter the Santana market with the hope of keeping their good prospects and willing to spend the dollars.

 

He might be at his high selling point this July. That high point might not include the kinds of prospects that some are hoping for in return.

[nicksaviking]

The only issue I have with not trading Dozier is that Polanco is out of options next year and he's a prime candidate to be Arcia'd.  I don't know if he will ever be as good as BD, but what I can say is that the potential is there for him to be an above average 2B both offensively and defensively.  If Dozier can net a really nice prospect while allowing you to play Polanco, I think you do it.  I do agree though that he shouldn't be traded for nothing.  Same goes with Santana.  I'd rather trade Nolasco/Milone for nothing (or just DFA them both if there are no takers) then part with Santana for a meager return.. Now again, if someone wants to pay something nice, then by all means, let's do it.

 

Agreed. I find it hard to believe this front office doesn't see the corner they are painting themselves into with Polanco.

 

Also, even if Dozier profiles as a better overall player, Polanco's superior OBP potential may be more valuable to this team considering its current make-up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not sure they're forcing themselves into a corner with Polanco.

 

Yeah, you want to see him play in Minnesota as much as possible but the Twins could easily trade Nunez and then Polanco gets playing time. Maybe Escobar gets injured. There's his playing time.

 

And there's no reason for both D Santana and Grossman to be on this team.

 

I HATE the way the Twins jerked around Polanco and wasted his option years but I don't think they're in a corner quite yet. There is enough trade bait and roster chaff to get him some playing time in the second half of the season.

[TheLeviathan]

I think it all boils down to the offers. With or without them going forward isn't that important, shop them and maximize their value. Whatever that is.

[LaBombo]

 

Where'd you find the baby picture of Chief?

Ouch. I was thinking more along the lines of him breaking up a drunken scuffle at commencement.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not sure they're forcing themselves into a corner with Polanco.

Yeah, you want to see him play in Minnesota as much as possible but the Twins could easily trade Nunez and then Polanco gets playing time. Maybe Escobar gets injured. There's his playing time.

And there's no reason for both D Santana and Grossman to be on this team.

I HATE the way the Twins jerked around Polanco and wasted his option years but I don't think they're in a corner quite yet. There is enough trade bait and roster chaff to get him some playing time in the second half of the season.

I guess my opinion is that Polanco has shown himself at least worth of a shot going on two years, and now they've basically wasted those two eval years and left themselves only one crack at it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess my opinion is that Polanco has shown himself at least worth of a shot going on two years, and now they've basically wasted those two eval years and left themselves only one crack at it.

No arguments here. Polanco spent his first two option years accumulating 20 (!!!!!!!!!!! I cannot stress that enough) plate appearances.

 

That's not bad 40 man management. That's "Dude, here's your pink slip because ARE YOU KIDDING ME" 40 man management.

[mikelink45]

Just read this on ESPN tonight -

 

"Red Sox acting swiftly to address needs, but starting pitching will be harder to find

The additions of the past few days have helped the Red Sox, but with a steep asking price on starting pitching, hope might rest on internal options."

 

I believe that Santana and Nolasco both have value right now and it is TRs job to capitalize on the market.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No arguments here. Polanco spent his first two option years accumulating 20 (!!!!!!!!!!! I cannot stress that enough) plate appearances.

 

That's not bad 40 man management. That's "Dude, here's your pink slip because ARE YOU KIDDING ME" 40 man management.

I don't know about that, how many plate appearances did Kepler get in his first two option years? Of course he gets four options, but still. Yorman Landa may not get any MLB innings in his first two option years either. It is the nature of the beast.

 

I suspect they are either comfortable trading him soon or using him as at least their primary utility guy next year. I might like to see him play more positions right now, but otherwise I can't fault them too much at this point. They are quite far from burying him and having to waive or DFA him like Arcia.

Edited July 10, 2016 by spycake

[tobi0040]

Just read this on ESPN tonight -

 

"Red Sox acting swiftly to address needs, but starting pitching will be harder to find

The additions of the past few days have helped the Red Sox, but with a steep asking price on starting pitching, hope might rest on internal options."

 

I believe that Santana and Nolasco both have value right now and it is TRs job to capitalize on the market.

Ervin yes. But we need to realize that Ricky has a 5.30, 6.75, and 5.30 ERA the last three years. And he is on the hook for $12m next year.

 

He is one of the least valuable players in the league and it is an embarrassment he is still starting for us.

[Jham]

No arguments here. Polanco spent his first two option years accumulating 20 (!!!!!!!!!!! I cannot stress that enough) plate appearances.

 

That's not bad 40 man management. That's "Dude, here's your pink slip because ARE YOU KIDDING ME" 40 man management.

Didn't we have to add Polanco from A-ball because of a freak set of injuries? Not that he shouldn't have been up last year and this year...

[Darius]

With the good number of solid SP prospects (Berrios, Stewart, Gonsolves, Jorge, Romero, Jay, etc), a guy like May who should be a starter, young guys like Gibson and Duffey in the rotation, and the Twins realistically not being anywhere near being a real contender for the next couple of years, it would be idiotic not to trade him of you can get some decent pieces in return.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't know about that, how many plate appearances did Kepler get in his first two option years? Of course he gets four options, but still. Yorman Landa may not get any MLB innings in his first two option years either. It is the nature of the beast.

I suspect they are either comfortable trading him soon or using him as at least their primary utility guy next year. I might like to see him play more positions right now, but otherwise I can't fault them too much at this point. They are quite far from burying him and having to waive or DFA him like Arcia.

Oh, I understand the Twins were in a really weird situation with Polanco - freak injuries caused some ill-advised call-ups - but some of that could have been avoided with less awkward 25- and 40-man roster construction.

 

And I agree that the Twins haven't painted themselves in a corner... Yet. They can roll with Polanco as a utility guy later this season and next season... But that's going to involve Ryan clearing up some space on the 25-man roster... Something he hasn't been very good about in recent years.

 

Trade Nunez and Polanco becomes (mostly) a non-issue. DFA Santana and that works, too.

 

God, I hope Buxton is back soon so Ryan isn't tempted to hold on to Santana at the expense of Polanco (and while I kinda like Nunez, I don't see an acceptable alternative to trading him... The Twins need that roster space).

 

Something has to give and space needs to be cleared.

[DocBauer]

Call me an eternal optomist if you will, but I don't believe D Santana has hit his ceiling yet. I believe the youth and talent are there to be a useful bench player. Potentially. But I think with the OF we have now, he is the guy to lose vs Nunez or Escobar. I think the two vets make us a better team as SS and utility options WITH Polanco until the likes of Vielma and Gordon prove ready.

[tobi0040]

If you DFA Santana, Molitor may just quit. That would be a win-win all around

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Call me an eternal optomist if you will, but I don't believe D Santana has hit his ceiling yet.

I'm not trying to be snarky but given how his OPS+ over the past two seasons is 57 (456 PAs), good god, I hope he hasn't hit his ceiling.

[DocBauer]

I'm not trying to be snarky but given how his OPS+ over the past two seasons is 57 (456 PAs), good god, I hope he hasn't hit his ceiling.

LOL. Not snarky at all. Just saying, he's young enough and athletic enough to continue to improve and possibly turn in to a useful super utility type ballplayer. Maybe one we'd even regret losing. But with the 4 OF's we have now, I'd rather lose him to get Polanco up than Escobar or Nunez, both of whom I like to man SS and utility along with Polanco. At least for the next year or two until the likes of Gordon and Vielma prove ready.

[Mike Sixel]

 

LOL. Not snarky at all. Just saying, he's young enough and athletic enough to continue to improve and possibly turn in to a useful super utility type ballplayer. Maybe one we'd even regret losing. But with the 4 OF's we have now, I'd rather lose him to get Polanco up than Escobar or Nunez, both of whom I like to man SS and utility along with Polanco. At least for the next year or two until the likes of Gordon and Vielma prove ready.

 

There are millions of great athletes that play baseball, or basketball, or football. MOST of them aren't good professionals.......how many years of bad production would it take for you not to be optimistic about him? Not asking to be mean, I am curious why you retain this hope.

[DocBauer]

There are millions of great athletes that play baseball, or basketball, or football. MOST of them aren't good professionals.......how many years of bad production would it take for you not to be optimistic about him? Not asking to be mean, I am curious why you retain this hope.

While anyone's milb track record is never a tell all, much less any form of guarantee, he hit reasonably well in the minors and showed some of the pop we've seen from time to time, with SB ability. And while his one excellent year with the Twins, when he was possibly promoted too quickly, is certainly not his ceiling. But we've seen flashes where he has had good AB and good games. And the one thing that was pointed during a game once was his quick hands. Whether it's with the Twins or not, with time and a better developed eye, I think his tools and quick hands could still make him a decent hitter.

[Mike Sixel]

 

While anyone's milb track record is never a tell all, much less any form of guarantee, he hit reasonably well in the minors and showed some of the pop we've seen from time to time, with SB ability. And while his one excellent year with the Twins, when he was possibly promoted too quickly, is certainly not his ceiling. But we've seen flashes where he has had good AB and good games. And the one thing that was pointed during a game once was his quick hands. Whether it's with the Twins or not, with time and a better developed eye, I think his tools and quick hands could still make him a decent hitter.

 

thanks. I hope you are correct, would love to see him succeed.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No arguments here. Polanco spent his first two option years accumulating 20 (!!!!!!!!!!! I cannot stress that enough) plate appearances.

That's not bad 40 man management. That's "Dude, here's your pink slip because ARE YOU KIDDING ME" 40 man management.

Polanco's first option year was in high A as he had to be in order to not be exposed to the rule V draft.  His second was in AA.  He was optioned again last year in AAA (and wasn't very good), but he seems to be much better this year.  I'm not sure his options management has been bad (and that comes from someone who has actively criticized said management of Arcia, Berrios, and Buxton).  The bigger issue I have right now is that he seems to have figured it out and needs to have playing time.  I'll be honest in that when I saw him this spring, he didn't look good, but quite frankly, as bad as this team has been, I don't see where keeping BD (baring a situation where no one offers anything of value) for 2017 and 2018 makes much sense when you have a much younger and longer cost controlled option that should be above average and could be a diamond in the rough. 

 

I certainly could be wrong, but I don't see the Twins being terribly competitive in 2017, not while we continue to keep the likes of Nolasco, Hughes, and Milone in the rotation at least and DFA potential cornerstone pieces such as Arcia.  That makes holding on to BD rather strange given that the contract he signed was structured in a way to allow him to test the market.  Losing Polanco for 2  years of BD (even if they are elite) in what will amount to likely one more losing season only to lose BD to FA would be wrong. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Perhaps cross off Boston as a potential Ervin destination -- they just got Pomeranz:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/padres-trade-drew-pomeranz-red-sox.html?fv-home=true&post-id=67095

[Mike Sixel]

And they gave up a great prospect to get him. Sigh.

[Loosey]

 

And they gave up a great prospect to get him. Sigh.

A couple days ago I wrote a question asking if the Twins should make an attempt at Pomeranz by giving up one of their solid AA pitchers or Romero.  Clearly that wouldn't have been enough. 

 

I think it was a good deal for the Sox.  Younger pitcher with 2 additional years of control for a highly touted A ball pitcher.  In my opinion these are the type of deals that make teams good and keep them good.  I wish the Twins were forward thinking enough to do something like this even in a non playoff year.

[jimmer]

 

A couple days ago I wrote a question asking if the Twins should make an attempt at Pomeranz by giving up one of their solid AA pitchers or Romero.  Clearly that wouldn't have been enough. 

 

I think it was a good deal for the Sox.  Younger pitcher with 2 additional years of control for a highly touted A ball pitcher.  In my opinion these are the type of deals that make teams good and keep them good.  I wish the Twins were forward thinking enough to do something like this even in a non playoff year.

Boston clearly had the better chance since their GM almost assuredly called the Padres instead of waiting for the Padres to call them :-)

[Mike Sixel]

 

A couple days ago I wrote a question asking if the Twins should make an attempt at Pomeranz by giving up one of their solid AA pitchers or Romero.  Clearly that wouldn't have been enough. 

 

I think it was a good deal for the Sox.  Younger pitcher with 2 additional years of control for a highly touted A ball pitcher.  In my opinion these are the type of deals that make teams good and keep them good.  I wish the Twins were forward thinking enough to do something like this even in a non playoff year.

 

On either side of the deal.......Pomeranz doesn't exactly have a long history of this success. So, when the Twins are close, I'd be on the Boston side. When rebuilding, I'd be on the other side.

[TheLeviathan]

Seller's market, don't let a week of playing the Rangers influence your decisions.  Pick up the damn phone and see what's out there Terry!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Seller's market, don't let a week of playing the Rangers influence your decisions.  Pick up the damn phone and see what's out there Terry!

 

they've made it clear, as has the national media, they wait for others to call them, and they wait for others to make an offer. Or, everyone is lying......

[jorgenswest]

Since 2014, Pomeranz has an ERA+ of 137 striking out more than a batter per inning. He is 27 and under team control through 2018. That kind of pitcher will get a good return in any market. It has no meaning for 2016 other than to set the bar for guys like Teheran.

[Loosey]

 

On either side of the deal.......Pomeranz doesn't exactly have a long history of this success. So, when the Twins are close, I'd be on the Boston side. When rebuilding, I'd be on the other side.

That is the surprising part of the deal for me.  #15 overall prospect to get him with limited history of success as you said.

 

I thought a Jorge + a lower level prospect would be a worth it for Twins.  Yes Jorge could be very good, but Pomeranz is what he is now, is a known MLB commodity and has control.  My thoughts were also since he has 2 years remaining of control, he fills a gap nicely for the Twins until the next wave of pitchers are ready to be called up.  Then if he continues to pitch as he has this year over the next two years, you have a very nice asset you can sign long-term or trade away at the deadline in 2018 and acquire more youth.  That was my thought on why the Twins should have made a play for him.  He kind of fits into the shorter term picture as well as the long-term if scenarios play out correctly.