Article: Servin' Up Ervin

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Gibson, Santana, Berrios, Duffey, Pitcher X isn't a postseason winner but it might be enough to keep the Twins in the game provided the offense is adequate.

But couldn't the same be said of Gibson, Cashner, Berrios, Duffey, Pitcher X?

 

How much is Ervin Santana really providing in this scenario, above and beyond what his FA replacement could be?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But couldn't the same be said of Gibson, Cashner, Berrios, Duffey, Pitcher X?

 

How much is Ervin Santana really providing in this scenario, above and beyond what his FA replacement could be?

It's a legitimate point and one that is hard to quantify. I think it boils down to personal outlook.

 

Again, I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't trade Santana, only that they should demand a solid return if they do so.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Again, I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't trade Santana, only that they should demand a solid return if they do so.

That's fair.  Not a lot of benefit to dealing him just for, say, a C prospect and salary relief.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's fair.  Not a lot of benefit to dealing him just for, say, a C prospect and salary relief.

Yeah, that's pretty much my thinking. If they can get a solid prospect relatively close to the majors, one that might be able to help as early as 2017 (more likely, 2018) at a position of need, one has to think long and hard about that trade.

 

Because, as you've pointed out, it shouldn't be terribly difficult to flip Santana's $13m salary into another similar pitcher for 2017.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Yeah, that's pretty much my thinking. If they can get a solid prospect relatively close to the majors, one that might be able to help as early as 2017 (more likely, 2018) at a position of need, one has to think long and hard about that trade.

 

Because, as you've pointed out, it shouldn't be terribly difficult to flip Santana's $13m salary into another similar pitcher for 2017.

 

There is another use for prospects, though - picking up younger prospects could give the Twins depth to trade from in the event they entered a stage of competitiveness. 

 

Since the only premise behind keeping Santana is that the Twins would be relevant, it seems to me like the same assumption supports trading him so long as the assets received are expected to have future trade value (which of course they would if the Twins wanted them).

[troyhobbs]

 

Agreed.

 

But all it takes is a decent-to-pretty-good Berrios and the staff suddenly looks much better. It won't win any awards but it might be enough to get by.

 

Gibson, Santana, Berrios, Duffey, Pitcher X isn't a postseason winner but it might be enough to keep the Twins in the game provided the offense is adequate.

 

And we shouldn't ignore how much better the defense is today and how much that's going to help a staff that struggles to miss bats. The infield is acceptable but that outfield of Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler is going to catch a lot of baseballs.

 

Again, not saying the Twins are on the verge of contending, only that I wouldn't rule it out, either.

Obviously no team should be written off a year in advance but this team is in the bottom 1/3 of practically every major pitching and hitting category available. They've won a few games of late but that doesn't necessarily mean their troubles are over.  Even bad teams hit good stretches. We all hope they're going to be a contender soon but do you really believe it'll be next year?

[DJL44]

At some point it will be too late to trade Santana. His effectiveness will decline with age. This is similar to Josh Willingham. Trade him now before he's untradeable. This is a seller's market and the Twins have an asset that multiple teams want.

[h2oface]

Please. No more prospects. This team wastes prospects.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is another use for prospects, though - picking up younger prospects could give the Twins depth to trade from in the event they entered a stage of competitiveness. 

Yeah, a good prospect is a good asset.  I wouldn't worry too much about position of need, or how close they are to the majors (although obviously better prospects are generally considered closer to the majors).

[wsnydes]

 

I think this is feasible given the FA market next year. His remaining 2/27 may look appealing in that context.

And the other side of that equation is teams don't tend to trade players that are under contract another two years and productive because they have value to them.

I'd argue that a team hoping to break 50 wins shouldn't have any value for a early 30's aged pitcher still owed $34M.  He'd have more value to them on the trade market.  He won't have any value to anyone by the time a team in this situation would have interest in that same pitcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Obviously no team should be written off a year in advance but this team is in the bottom 1/3 of practically every major pitching and hitting category available. They've won a few games of late but that doesn't necessarily mean their troubles are over.  Even bad teams hit good stretches. We all hope they're going to be a contender soon but do you really believe it'll be next year?

The first half of the season is over. We've seen what happens when Rosario, Buxton, Sano, & Co. all fall on their face at the same time. It leads to lost baseball games and lots of 'em.

 

But just because that happened in the first half doesn't mean it will continue through the second half. We're talking about a slew of guys under 25 years old, many of which are showing more consistent upside as they grow into themselves.

 

But the pitching isn't going to fix itself. The bullpen looks adequate now but the rotation badly needs Berrios to step up and fill a role.

[wsnydes]

 

The first half of the season is over. We've seen what happens when Rosario, Buxton, Sano, & Co. all fall on their face at the same time. It leads to lost baseball games and lots of 'em.

 

But just because that happened in the first half doesn't mean it will continue through the second half. We're talking about a slew of guys under 25 years old, many of which are showing more consistent upside as they grow into themselves.

 

But the pitching isn't going to fix itself. The bullpen looks adequate now but the rotation badly needs Berrios to step up and fill a role.

Recently, we're learning what it's like when they're clicking a bit too.  They're supplementing the lineup enough to keep things moving along with Kepler and the veterans.  The fact that they're hitting a little is a big reason this lineup has put up a ton of runs in the last week or so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Recently, we're learning what it's like when they're clicking a bit too.  They're supplementing the lineup enough to keep things moving along with Kepler and the veterans.  The fact that they're hitting a little is a big reason this lineup has put up a ton of runs in the last week or so.

Yeah, I think people are underestimating just how much coordinated effort it required for the Twins to be as bad as they were for the first two months of the season.

 

It required regression from almost everyone. Not 1/3rd the guys, not 1/2 the guys... But more like 3/4ths the guys. That kind of group ineptitude doesn't roll around very often and it will ruin any team's season.

 

And on top of all that horrible play and underperformance, they were still unlucky with sequencing. The Twins are currently -7 wins according to BaseRuns and -4 wins according to Pythag.

 

Disclaimer: I am not ignoring any of the front office's mistakes. The Twins were as bad as they were through the first 70 games of the season in large part because the front office failed to do their job... But it didn't help that everyone decided to call in sick for two months, either.

[wsnydes]

 

Yeah, I think people are underestimating just how much coordinated effort it required for the Twins to be as bad as they were for the first two months of the season.

 

It required regression from almost everyone. Not 1/3rd the guys, not 1/2 the guys... But more like 3/4ths the guys. That kind of group ineptitude doesn't roll around very often and it will ruin any team's season.

 

And on top of all that horrible play and underperformance, they were still unlucky with sequencing. The Twins are currently -7 wins according to BaseRuns and -4 wins according to Pythag.

 

Disclaimer: I am not ignoring any of the front office's mistakes. The Twins were as bad as they were through the first 70 games of the season in large part because the front office failed to do their job... But it didn't help that everyone decided to call in sick for two months, either.

I agree completely.  A lot had to go wrong to get to this point, no doubt.  I think a lot of the mistakes the FO made only compounded things.  Many of the early struggles are a direct result of constructing a puzzle where the pieces didn't fit together.  Molitor isn't blameless either, but his job was made more difficult because it was nearly impossible to put together an optimal lineup with what he was provided.

[markos]

 

Obviously no team should be written off a year in advance but this team is in the bottom 1/3 of practically every major pitching and hitting category available. They've won a few games of late but that doesn't necessarily mean their troubles are over.  Even bad teams hit good stretches. We all hope they're going to be a contender soon but do you really believe it'll be next year?

This is the huge question for the franchise, and not just in regard to the Santana question. Basically: Where are we at with the rebuild? My opinion is, and always has been, that this front office has set themselves up such that they need (at least) two of the Sano/Buxton/Berrios/Kepler core to become superstars, and then they need just enough depth to avoid any blackholes on the rest of the roster. (And honestly, this stars-and-a-little-bit-better-than-scrubs roster construction was the basis for most of the 2000s success.)

 

I think the offense is close. Sano has flirted with stardom, and Kepler looks like he might be ahead of Buxton right now. There were too many black holes in the first couple of months, but those have been more or less filled. And the past month has reflected that, as the offense has actually been above average. So it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that the offense is set up for 2017 where if one of Buxton/Sano/Kepler takes a leap, there is enough talent (and depth) to hopefully keep the offense around league average. (At the very least, they should have a much better idea of who is wheat and who is chaff.) If a couple guys take a leap, then we're talking about a legitimately good offense. 

 

Pitching is a different story, as the road to respectability in 2017 requires a lot more wishful thinking. But is that enough to write off 2017? I don't know. 

[troyhobbs]

 

The first half of the season is over. We've seen what happens when Rosario, Buxton, Sano, & Co. all fall on their face at the same time. It leads to lost baseball games and lots of 'em.

 

But just because that happened in the first half doesn't mean it will continue through the second half. We're talking about a slew of guys under 25 years old, many of which are showing more consistent upside as they grow into themselves.

 

But the pitching isn't going to fix itself. The bullpen looks adequate now but the rotation badly needs Berrios to step up and fill a role.

I agree with all that and it's encouraging what the young guys have done in spurts but I wouldn't let it influence the decision to deal Santana. It would leave a hole in a position of need but it's only a matter of time until he's not an adequate patch for that hole anyway so I'd move on and address it in the off-season.

 

I'd try May as a SP again but that idea has flown the coup of the Twins brass. And just to rant a little off the subject....if I'm managing a team on pace for 100+ losses and one of my pitchers is throwing a shut out, I'd leave the kid in the game and let him chase a little personal glory.  Come on, not like there is a whole lot else to play for!

[Major League Ready]

 

At some point it will be too late to trade Santana. His effectiveness will decline with age. This is similar to Josh Willingham. Trade him now before he's untradeable. This is a seller's market and the Twins have an asset that multiple teams want.

It sure does seem to be a seller's market.  Let's hope that means a very good return.  I would love to see them eat half the contract and get a top 50 type prospect.  I am not too woried about us still needing some pitching to get through this year and perhaps next year even if it means Nolasco at the back of the rotation.  Pitch him until Gonsolves or someone else is ready and then DFA Nolasco or put him in a mop role if he has no trade value when Gonsalves is ready.   

Edited July 8, 2016 by Major Leauge Ready

[beckmt]

Would rather take 2 - 3 Class A types.  Twins will have enough issues with the 40 man this fall without adding to it(will take sure things).  Not likely to get those so take the lower higher upside players.

[Major League Ready]

 

Would rather take 2 - 3 Class A types.  Twins will have enough issues with the 40 man this fall without adding to it(will take sure things).  Not likely to get those so take the lower higher upside players.

What if it was a prospect with front of the rotation stuff at AA.  Sign me up!  

[Brock Beauchamp]

What if it was a prospect with front of the rotation stuff at AA. Sign me up!

That... Won't happen.

 

If a guy has front of the rotation stuff and is in AA, it's likely the team would just put him in the MLB rotation and let it rip.

[Major League Ready]

 

That... Won't happen.

If a guy has front of the rotation stuff and is in AA, it's likely the team would just put him in the MLB rotation and let it rip.

A man can dream can't he?  You are right, I was just being a typical fan hoping for an unrealistic return.

[jorgenswest]

Pomeranz, Teheran and Odorizzi will come with a significant prospect cost. The appeal of Santana is that his return would be much less in prospect cost. I think to get even a moderate prospect, the Twins would have to pay some salary. If the demand is a top prospect, teams would be wise to go after one of the other three. Once they move, demand for Santana should increase.

[Brandon]

It looks like more of the Twins offensive pieces are comming back around, Sano, Kepler, Dozier, it may make sense to wait till next year to trade Santana to see if we can be competitive next year.  That would also allow us to trade or release Nolasco next year first when the younger guys start coming up.  I wouldn't trade Santana just to free up payroll space.

 

At the same time if we get something good in return besides salary relief.  We should consider trade options.

[Major League Ready]

Apparently, the Target Field revenue has influenced a new view of paying down contracts.  

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins

 

It sure would be nice to get a good return on Santana.  Between paying down on his contract, the poor FA market next year, and it being a sellers market in general, that seems quite possible.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Apparently, the Target Field revenue has influenced a new view of paying down contracts.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins

 

It sure would be nice to get a good return on Santana. Between paying down on his contract, the poor FA market next year, and it being a sellers market in general, that seems quite possible.

At this point, it is hard to know if it is just lip service or not.

 

Ryan, speaking in general terms, said he couldn't remember the last time the Twins ate money in a trade, but that he's open to it if it yields a better prospect.

 

"I wouldn't be opposed to that if you're getting a good player back and it takes some money to do it," Ryan said.

 

I am guessing Ryan would have said the same thing when asked in past years. It is a very different thing to actually do it, and do it in a meaningful way (obviously anyone would throw in a few million to get a top 100 prospect at a position of need, but what if it is not so obvious?).

[AlwaysinModeration]

While I think E Santana could be a good pitcher for the Twins next year and possibly in 2018, he is exactly the sort of sought after trade chip that the Twins should deal. (in fact, using FA signings as trade bait is a means of building a strong farm system that the Twins haven't really utilized).

 

In looking over prospect lists, I see a ton of SS prospects. The Mets (and Atlanta) each have two top-rated SS prospects.

 

How about C Austin Barnes and Frankie Montas from the Dodgers for Santana? De Leon (and Urias) are probably too much to ask for from them.

 

A catching prospect would be nice to secure this summer. Gary Sanchez of the Yankees? I don't suppose the Phillies are selling, but Alfaro looks like a decent prospect (and they have a second C prospect).

 

Along with Sanchez, how about two other "post-hype" names - Dylan Bundy of the Orioles, or Jurickson Profar of the Rangers? Profar made a bone-headed play last night at first that cause Hamels to stare him down.

 

I don't think the Twins are that far away from competiveness, but this trade deadline is an opportunity to add some valuable pieces to a nice young core. If they could lock up an up-the-middle SS or C (preferably both) it could be huge for this team.

[mikelink45]

My issue in this report is the idea that teams should be coming to TR with all their ideas.  Don't we have some ideas of our own?  Can't we suggest some good matches for the other teams to consider?

[tobi0040]

My issue in this report is the idea that teams should be coming to TR with all their ideas. Don't we have some ideas of our own? Can't we suggest some good matches for the other teams to consider?

Good point. One would think our GM would be constantly thinking of how we can improve the 2017 team, particularly starting pitchers and a catcher

Edited July 9, 2016 by tobi0040

[mikelink45]

After reading this posting and writing my response I went to ESPN to check out events and found Boston had just traded for a 36 year old reliever who has an ERA a run higher than last year and then I read about the Mets and Snydergard going down and Harvey taking surgery and then about the Orioles having to replace an awful Jiminez.  Of course the Dodgers have almost no rotation and this story can be played out in other places as well.  The conclusion is - TR start moving or get a lieutenant who can talk trades and step in before more prospects are wasted through the desperation that these competing teams feel - right now.

 

Edited July 9, 2016 by mikelink45

[AlwaysinModeration]

How about catching prospect Reese McGuire from the Pirates? If I recall, Twins were interested in drafting him.