Article: Examining Potential 40-man Additions

[Jeremy Nygaard]

As we approach the All-Star break and trade deadline, our role as armchair GM has taken a significantly different role from a year ago, when we were trying to add pieces to a team that was thinking “playoffs.”

 

This year we might be thinking a lot of things, but none are “playoffs” and all should contain “future”. One of those fun-to-think-about future activities involves adding players to the 40-man roster in mid-November.The Twins recently freed up two spots on their 40-man (though they’ll need to re-add Perkins and Hughes at the conclusion of the season). Only Kurt Suzuki (whose option won’t vest) is scheduled to become a free agent. There are many others - Ervin Santana, Fernando Abad and Trevor Plouffe, among others - that may find themselves in different clubhouses before the end of August. All told, though, we don’t know how many spots the Twins will have available.

 

Looking at recent history, though, the Twins added seven at the deadline last year. In 2014, they only added four and in 2013 it was only five. But seven were added in 2012 after only adding three in 2011. So while we can’t tell how many will be added in November, we can look at the potential candidates:

 

Catchers: Mitch Garver, Stuart Turner, Rainis Silva, Kevin Garcia.

 

Infielders: Engelb Vielma, Ryan Walker, Jorge Fernandez, Rafael Valera, Amaurys Minier.

 

Outfielders: Zach Granite, Daniel Palka.

 

Pitchers: Aaron Slegers, Ryan Eades, Fernando Romero, Brandon Peterson, Brian Gilbert, Lewis Thorpe, Williams Ramirez, Cameron Booser, C.K. Irby.

 

Some players who have already been eligible for the Rule 5 draft that may merit consideration: Jason Wheeler, Niko Goodrum, Travis Harrison, Zack Jones (again), Felix Jorge.

 

Let’s put them into some categories.

 

Who are the “absolute adds” right now? If my mind, there is no way you can risk exposing any of Felix Jorge, Fernando Romero or Daniel Palka. They would be lost. While Jorge might have a harder time sticking on a big-league roster, Romero, who could utilize his high-90s heat to stay in a bullpen, and Palka, with his prodigious power, offer dimensions that can be easily carried on a 25-man roster.

 

Mitch Garver just misses that “absolute” placement for me, but headlines the “probable adds” category. Engelb Vielma and Zach Granite both merit consideration as well. I think any of these three players could get drafted based on what they offer: Garver as a cheap, but adequate two-way catcher, Vielma as a defensive replacement/pinch-runner, and Granite as a fourth-outfielder/pinch-runner.

 

I would find a way to be able to add all six of these players to the 40-man roster.

 

The next grouping is the most difficult. I put these players in the “doubtful adds/hope I don’t regret it” category and my headliner is Lewis Thorpe. Thorpe has obviously missed the last year-plus after having undergone Tommy John surgery. If he proves that he’s healthy yet this season, I’d have to think about adding him. The other caveat with Thorpe is that since he missed all of last year and won’t spend 90 days on the active roster this year, he could potentially qualify for a fourth option if he runs out of options coming into the 2020 season. If you’re willing to burn a 40-man spot, you can essentially use it to “redshirt” him.

 

Stuart Turner hasn’t hit enough to merit an addition, but he could play MLB-caliber defense and there’s always a need for backstops. Jason Wheeler has rebounded nicely since being outrighted last year. The Twins liked him enough to add him once and he’s been better than ever. Aaron Slegers has been successful at every stop he’s made, but never dominated. (I think Ray Searage would turn Slegers into an MLB starter if given the chance.) Travis Harrison hasn’t taken a step forward in his second year in AA. Brandon Peterson could garner some looks as a bullpen guy, but his rough time in Chattanooga probably cost him a chance to get drafted. Rainis Silva and Amaurys Minier were the team’s prizes in the 2012 international signing period, but neither have hit a lick and both are many years away from potentially helping a major-league team.

 

What do you think? With four months to go to make and solidify your choices, who would you add if you had to decide today?

 

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[Seth Stohs]

Fun chat, and obviously we'd have to look at who is traded and then comes off the 40-man roster to see how many roster spots might be available. 

 

Givens: Jorge, Palka, Romero, Garver. (I'll add Garver because catching is so hard to find).

Probables: Stuart Turner (see above regarding catching), Engelb Vielma (he's hit fairly well in AA and the defense is great), 

 

Tough Decisions: Wheeler, Eades, Slegers, Granite, Thorpe. 

 

I think I'd call up Wheeler at some point in the next two months and give him some starts and just decide whether to keep him on the 40-man roster or to DFA him at the end of the season. Would be nice to see him get some big league innings  before deciding what to do in the offseason. 

[AZTwin]

I could see 8 maybe 9 spots opening up.

 

Locks are Jorge, Palka, Vielma, Romero and Garver.

 

Heavy consideration (most likely adds): Granite, Wheeler and Slegers.

 

Tough choice: Thorpe and Harrison.

 

Here are the people I see coming off the 40 man: 2 of (Vargas, dozier, Escobar, Nunez, Plouffe), Suzuki, 1 of (grossman, Santana or walker), 1 of (Santana or nolasco), 4 other pitchers (abad, booshers, Meyer, melotakis,

Milone, Ramirez)

[AZTwin]

Can't edit my post but I'd leave off Harrison of my tough choice. I wouldn't add him to tough choice unless he has a hell of a 2nd half

[diehardtwinsfan]

If Thorpe had pitched at this point, I think he'd be a tougher decision.  As it is now, I have a tough time believing a guy who has only seen low A would be able to stick somewhere...

 

speaking of things that need to be fixed...  There's no reason why it is we should have to consider adding him at that point.  International FAs signed under 18 ought to have more years before they are required to be protected.

[tobi0040]

I was about to type the same thing Diehard. Thorpe last pitched in low A ball in 2014. Hard to see how he sticks on a 25 man roster next April.

[beckmt]

Agree with the five givens(adding Turner).  Twins may only have 1 catcher(Murphy) after this year.  Granite is the only other add (though Vielma is close).  Depends on trades, what the Twins get back, and the number of open spots on the roster.  Hope the Twins trade some of the major leaguers to create more spots on this list. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

If Thorpe had pitched at this point, I think he'd be a tougher decision.  As it is now, I have a tough time believing a guy who has only seen low A would be able to stick somewhere...

 

speaking of things that need to be fixed...  There's no reason why it is we should have to consider adding him at that point.  International FAs signed under 18 ought to have more years before they are required to be protected

 

They get one extra year, but you're right, probably should get one more if they sign at 16. I would be in favor of that. 

 

The current cut-off is at 19, but maybe there should be a second cutoff at 17 too.

[Vanimal46]

It's tough to say how many will be off the 40 man roster and how many need to be added at this point in time. I do think AZTwin is on the right track for his locks and potential players falling off the 40 man. 

Locks: Palka, Jorge, Romero, 1 of Garver or Turner

 

I think I'd only protect 1 of the 2 catchers, depending on if Centeno re-signs with the team. I'm still holding out hope that a veteran FA C is brought on board too, like a Wilson Ramos or Geo Soto. 

Have no opinion either way: Wheeler, Slegers, Eades, and Granite.

Thorpe I'd take the chance that he slides through Rule 5 without getting picked up. 

[John Kelsey]

 

It's tough to say how many will be off the 40 man roster and how many need to be added at this point in time. I do think AZTwin is on the right track for his locks and potential players falling off the 40 man. 

Locks: Palka, Jorge, Romero, 1 of Garver or Turner

 

I think I'd only protect 1 of the 2 catchers, depending on if Centeno re-signs with the team. I'm still holding out hope that a veteran FA C is brought on board too, like a Wilson Ramos or Geo Soto. 

Have no opinion either way: Wheeler, Slegers, Eades, and Granite.

Thorpe I'd take the chance that he slides through Rule 5 without getting picked up. 

 

Wilson Ramos is 28 and has been the best offensive catcher in baseball this year by a pretty wide margin. Good luck with that. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Thorpe had pitched at this point, I think he'd be a tougher decision.  As it is now, I have a tough time believing a guy who has only seen low A would be able to stick somewhere...

But, Thorpe wouldn't have to stick anywhere next spring -- he has a built-in excuse to spend 3 months on the DL to open the 2017 season, with his continued surgery recovery.  That seems to be the Rule 5 ideal -- April/May on the DL, June in the minors for rehab.  The only cost through that point is the 40-man roster spot from December through March.  At that point, after the extra evaluation time, if the team still wants him and has a spot for him, they can bury him in their bullpen for July and August before effectively shutting him down with September's expanded rosters.  Then they can freely option him until the spring of 2021.

 

It's not for every team, but a lot of teams who don't plan to contend, or have a very real chance of being out of the race by July, could be willing to do that.  I'd hope the Twins are considering doing it themselves if another team left a Thorpe type unprotected -- it might be a better Rule 5 strategy than more traditional picks like JR Graham.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They get one extra year, but you're right, probably should get one more if they sign at 16. I would be in favor of that. 

 

The current cut-off is at 19, but maybe there should be a second cutoff at 17 too.

I think the extra year is already plenty.  Thorpe will be 21 years old when the Rule 5 draft happens this year.  If we add him to the 40-man roster, he will be 25 years old before he is out of options.  You really think teams should get more time to evaluate than that?

 

In Thorpe's case, it seems short because they started him a bit slowly and then he got hurt, but that already buys us an extra option year.  As a rule, I would hate to shackle prospects to the minor leagues any longer than they already are.

[Mike Sixel]

We might really like Thorpe's potential.....but they are loaded with pitching potential, he's been hurt A LOT, and he's never pitched above A ball.......I think if there is a crunch at all, he has to be left off.

 

Palka, Jorge, Romero are, imo, locks.

 

Very likely:

Granite (he would be lost, imo), 1 of the 2 catchers (probably Garver), Veilma

 

Also likely:

the other catcher, Wheeler (not for me, but for this FO)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here are the people I see coming off the 40 man: 2 of (Vargas, dozier, Escobar, Nunez, Plouffe), Suzuki, 1 of (grossman, Santana or walker), 1 of (Santana or nolasco), 4 other pitchers (abad, booshers, Meyer, melotakis,
Milone, Ramirez)

That looks about right.  Centeno probably gets dropped too if we are protecting Garver/Turner anyway (although it might be offset by re-signing Suzuki or adding a different veteran catcher).

 

I'd also add Dean to the list of suspect pitchers.

 

Among recent protections, we probably have to consider dropping Randy Rosario too -- he's got a 4.73 RAvg and 5.8 K/9 this year, compared to the FSL averages of 4.02 and 7.7.  Maybe we should see if he can be more effective in a relief role the rest of this season?  He is 22 years old already.

 

(And I'd be surprised if we dealt any of Dozier, Grossman, or Ervin Santana by December, I think their spots are pretty safe.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The other caveat with Thorpe is that since he missed all of last year and won’t spend 90 days on the active roster this year, he could potentially qualify for a fourth option if he runs out of options coming into the 2020 season. If you’re willing to burn a 40-man spot, you can essentially use it to “redshirt” him.

Jeremy, do you know if that 90 day requirement includes minor league playoffs?  I notice that from his first start of 2014 through the end of the Cedar Rapids regular season, Thorpe had 87 active days, but the team did have an additional 6 days in the playoffs (although Thorpe did not pitch in them).

 

Not a big deal, but if it was considered under 90 days, Thorpe could still qualify for a 4th option in 2021 if he was left unprotected this winter (either for us or for whatever team selects him as a Rule 5 pick).

[tobi0040]

But, Thorpe wouldn't have to stick anywhere next spring -- he has a built-in excuse to spend 3 months on the DL to open the 2017 season, with his continued surgery recovery.  That seems to be the Rule 5 ideal -- April/May on the DL, June in the minors for rehab.  The only cost through that point is the 40-man roster spot from December through March.  At that point, after the extra evaluation time, if the team still wants him and has a spot for him, they can bury him in their bullpen for July and August before effectively shutting him down with September's expanded rosters.  Then they can freely option him until the spring of 2021.

 

It's not for every team, but a lot of teams who don't plan to contend, or have a very real chance of being out of the race by July, could be willing to do that.  I'd hope the Twins are considering doing it themselves if another team left a Thorpe type unprotected -- it might be a better Rule 5 strategy than more traditional picks like JR Graham.

I can’t find the exact surgery date for Thorpe, but he was slated for TJ in March of 2015. Stretching his DL stint out to May of 2017 seems a bit long to me. That is 26 months. Joe Nathan, albeit one of the quicker paths back was appearing in games 12-13 months after his surgery.

[toosweet64]

 

Wilson Ramos is 28 and has been the best offensive catcher in baseball this year by a pretty wide margin. Good luck with that. 

 

With that being said, if you trade Ervin Santana, don't extend an offer to Plouffe, and lose Suzuki, you would have a large chunk of money to offer the 28 year old Ramos a long term deal. And the Twins should offer the money: ALL OF THE MONEY. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I can’t find the exact surgery date for Thorpe, but he was slated for TJ in March of 2015. Stretching his DL stint out to May of 2017 seems a bit long to me. That is 26 months. Joe Nathan, albeit one of the quicker paths back was appearing in games 12-13 months after his surgery.

I am assuming he returns to active duty yet this season, but he could still be DL'ed again next year as he works his way back.  It's a process, not a binary thing.  Pelfrey was DL'ed in 2013 for generic reasons after his return, although it was a shorter timeframe overall, but Thorpe warrants more caution than a veteran arm too.

[tobi0040]

I am assuming he returns to active duty yet this season, but he could still be DL'ed again next year as he works his way back.  It's a process, not a binary thing.  Pelfrey was DL'ed in 2013 for generic reasons after his return, although it was a shorter timeframe overall, but Thorpe warrants more caution than a veteran arm too.

You could also play the setback card too. Although I don't know why Thorpe would have an incetive to play that game. I am sure the Twins would be kicking and screaming. But who knows. Games have been played before.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You could also play the setback card too. Although I don't know why Thorpe would have an incetive to play that game. I am sure the Twins would be kicking and screaming. But who knows. Games have been played before.

I don't think it would take much to play the setback card.  Dude hasn't thrown a professional pitch in nearly two years now, he has 115 career innings in the U.S.  It wouldn't be that blatant to ease him through the first few months of 2017 (or alternatively, pitch him early but shut him down in July).

 

Thorpe would be getting MLB salary and MLB service time throughout -- one season's minimum MLB salary as a Rule 5 guy would exceed his original $500k bonus.  Not to mention the longer-term benefits (increased minor league pay in 2017 and beyond, a year closer to arb and free agency, plus lifetime pension and health benefits tied to service time).  There are plenty of incentives for Thorpe to prefer being someone else's Rule 5 stash over continuing to be non-40-man roster property of the Twins.

Edited July 7, 2016 by spycake

[Rosterman]

This is the situation the Twins now find themselves. If they add the guy, is he a keeper. Do you remove, say, Centeno for Garver or Turner. Will Garver or Turner play next year. How many players like Landa, Melotakis and Romero can you carry that may not contribute until 2018 or beyond. Do you let the Boshers, Grossmans and Kintzlers walk and maybe resign to a minor league contract?

 

Out of all the players mentioned above, the Twins HAVE TO look at names like Palka and Granite and see if they wish to trade Rosario, Santana or even Walker, for example. What role would Walker (Ryan) or Vielma play on the Twins next season or in the future? 

 

Who out of ALL those names would a major league club grab to keep on the 35 man for a year. Who DO YOU RISK losing in the minor league portion. Do you pass on Wimmers and Meyer and hope you can still keep them around.

 

Do we have a list of the guys who are eligible (Seth?) and who will be minor league free agents? Again, this is a list the Twins need to carefully go over as the July trading deadline swings into force and the Twins MAY have to package a prospect or two to rid themselves of, say, a Nolasco or Plouffe, and get someone still promising but not needing protection in return.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

If Thorpe had pitched at this point, I think he'd be a tougher decision.  As it is now, I have a tough time believing a guy who has only seen low A would be able to stick somewhere...

 

speaking of things that need to be fixed...  There's no reason why it is we should have to consider adding him at that point.  International FAs signed under 18 ought to have more years before they are required to be protected.

 

The part of the rule that is ridiculous, is that IFAs sign a "future" contract (for the following year), but their first exemption for the Rule 5 draft is the year that they agree to the deal. Fix that and all IFAs would be allowed another year.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Jeremy, do you know if that 90 day requirement includes minor league playoffs?  I notice that from his first start of 2014 through the end of the Cedar Rapids regular season, Thorpe had 87 active days, but the team did have an additional 6 days in the playoffs (although Thorpe did not pitch in them).

 

Not a big deal, but if it was considered under 90 days, Thorpe could still qualify for a 4th option in 2021 if he was left unprotected this winter (either for us or for whatever team selects him as a Rule 5 pick).

 

Good find. I assumed he hit his 90. I can't imagine playoffs count towards service (cause they don't in the big leagues). I'd like to say the Twins planned it that way, but they lacked the forward thinking with Polanco by playing him the DSL before the GCL, so he hit 90 days and won't qualify for a fourth option.

 

Thorpe could qualify for a 4th without being added this year, as far as I could tell.

[tobi0040]

I don't think it would take much to play the setback card.  Dude hasn't thrown a professional pitch in nearly two years now, he has 115 career innings in the U.S.  It wouldn't be that blatant to ease him through the first few months of 2017 (or alternatively, pitch him early but shut him down in July).

Good call on the incentives for Thorpe with an MLB salary.

 

He started throwing a few weeks ago. Is there a precedent of a guy not appearing in games until basically 10 months after starting to throw (next May)?

 

The part about him only pitching in A ball is kind of my point. But if you take him in a rule 5 that is part of the requirement. So I don't see how the A ball to MLB gap is an excuse to ease him along.

[Jham]

Echo the need for a rule change for international fa. Or at least make the claiming team reimburse the signing bonus to protect the team.

 

Harrison passed through last year. Thorpe is likely to be returned or bring back a trade offer. With starting depth at his level being an organizational strength, he, like hu last year become slightly expendable. That can change quickly, but it's not like I'm willing to bet on Thorpes elbow and shoulder either.

[nater79a]

Another thing to keep in mind as we head towards the trade deadline- ask for higher upside guys in A or A+ ball that don"t need to be protected yet. If you get middling AA or AAA players back that need to be protected you"re just treading water as far as the 40-man goes.

 

Personally, would rather have higher ceiling guys anyway, even if they're 2-3 years away from the bigs.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Echo the need for a rule change for international fa. Or at least make the claiming team reimburse the signing bonus to protect the team.

 

Harrison passed through last year. Thorpe is likely to be returned or bring back a trade offer. With starting depth at his level being an organizational strength, he, like hu last year become slightly expendable. That can change quickly, but it's not like I'm willing to bet on Thorpes elbow and shoulder either.

I agree on Thorpe. Plus the fact that Fernando Romero has passed Thorpe up as a better starting pitching prospect adds more reason that Thorpe may not be protected by the Twins.

[Jham]

Wimmers wasn't protected last year, and he's a former number 1 who appears to be near MLB ready in the pen, and would be an easy addition for a team.  I'm not sure if his upside has dropped to low-leverage reliever, but I would think he'd be adequate in that role making a waiver claim more palatable for a team that still harbors hope for his former upside.  I don't think the Twins protect him, I'm not even saying I'd protect him, but he'd interest me if I'm another team.

Yorman Landa, Tonkin, DSan, and Pat Dean are all on the 40 man and also on my watch list.  I'd consider exposing any or all of these players come the end of the year.  

[Dman]

I like the list and wouldn't change it.  I agree they have to find room for the top three and they will.  

 

I think Garver gets added because he has offensive potential and has gotten better defensively.  Unless the Twins trade for a really good catcher he is essentially a for sure add.  To add Turner I think you need to decide how you feel about Murphy because Turner and Murphy look pretty similar to me.

 

I like Granite and have been watching him come through the system but if you add him them you potentially have 8 outfielders on the 40 man.  I don't see that happening.  Maybe Walker and Palka are considered more DH\1B than outfielders and Santana in center might not be ideal, but IMO the Twins need to decide about Santana this year if they want to add Granite. Get rid of Santana and Granite is an easy add.  Also even if the Twins lost Granite they have Wade coming up in a few years who should be able to do pretty much everything Zach can do.  Just have to wait a couple of years.

 

Trade Nunez, Dozier or Escobar and Vielma is an easy add.  He is never gonna hit for power but he can hit and plays better than average defense so he looks like a utility player for sure and maybe a quality starter if he can hit some gaps.  Would hate to lose him and he would be a good rule five grab for a team because he already brings quality defense.

 

I think they should give Wheeler a look in the second half.  The last time I went to bat for him he pitched terrible for a whole season so I don;t know what to think about him other than he might be a fifth starter type.  Thing is we have plenty of those already with a crop of guys with higher potential on the way so unless he pitches really well at the MLB level I don't see the twins protecting him.

 

Granted there are guys who can come off of the 40 man but I think it will be hard to find 6 spots.  The roster is getting younger so it is getting harder to find spots to hide guys.  Will be interesting to see how the Twins value these players and what decisions they make.  Personally I hope they trade or remove some of the marginal guys and vets on this team to make more room.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wimmers wasn't protected last year, and he's a former number 1 who appears to be near MLB ready in the pen, and would be an easy addition for a team.  I'm not sure if his upside has dropped to low-leverage reliever, but I would think he'd be adequate in that role making a waiver claim more palatable for a team that still harbors hope for his former upside.  I don't think the Twins protect him, I'm not even saying I'd protect him, but he'd interest me if I'm another team.

Yorman Landa, Tonkin, DSan, and Pat Dean are all on the 40 man and also on my watch list.  I'd consider exposing any or all of these players come the end of the year.  

 

Wimmers is an interesting case. He's closing in Rochester, so they must see some value in him. But, he's not up. If he's not up this year, I'll be disappointed if they protect him. Not valuable enough to test him out on a terrible, lost season, but valuable enough to protect? That would seem odd to me....