Article: Pacesetters: Crazy Halfway Projections

[Teflon]

 

I think you missed the result today? They are already 6-4 over their last 10, as noted above. Won the finale in NY, then one win in 3 games in Chicago, then 2 of 3 from each of the Rangers and A's at home.

 

I did, didn't I? Apologies. 

[Dantes929]

 

This was........not happy inducing.....

27-54 was the first half result.    In the 2nd half they are 2-1 which projects out to 54-27.       First half it took them 9 games to reach 2 wins.   2nd half it took 3 games.   My conclusion is that they are three times better now than they were then.    That conclusion is based on factual statistics that you can look up and cannot refute.   Try to poke holes in those stats  and conclusions.    You know, without referencing that lame small sample excuse.

[hybridbear]

Hopefully Molitor will bench Mauer now for the rest of the season and only play him sparingly. Early in the year there was so much talk about his new Nike light-flashing glasses, I guess they have stopped working, or else an opposing pitcher snuck into the Twins clubhouse and stole them from Joe's locker...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hopefully Molitor will bench Mauer now for the rest of the season and only play him sparingly. Early in the year there was so much talk about his new Nike light-flashing glasses, I guess they have stopped working, or else an opposing pitcher snuck into the Twins clubhouse and stole them from Joe's locker...

I don't understand the point of these posts. Mauer will not be benched in 2016. Everybody knows this to be the case.

 

Besides, Mauer isn't exactly killing the team. His OBP is .370, second on the team behind Grossman (who still sits at a ridiculous .420 through 181 PAs).

[markos]

 

I don't understand the point of these posts. Mauer will not be benched in 2016. Everybody knows this to be the case.

 

Besides, Mauer isn't exactly killing the team. His OBP is .370, second on the team behind Grossman (who still sits at a ridiculous .420 through 181 PAs).

I've been thinking the same thing. Is Mauer a top hitter? No. Is he overpaid? Yeah. Is he below-average for 1B? Probably a little. But he is still a high-OBP, league average hitter, and he is perfectly fine so long as he is the 6th or 7th best hitter on the team. From a team run generation perspective, having him in the lineup and getting on base is a big plus. This isn't a disaster like Ryan Zimmerman with the Nationals or Prince Fielder with Texas.

 

I really like the Grossman-Dozier-Mauer-Sano-Kepler block in the lineup right now. All are capable of .340+ OBPs, 10%+ walk rates, and together have the potential to extend innings and really make pitchers work. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Agreed. If there's a block of five guys in the lineup that get on base 35% of the time, that lineup will score runs and wear down pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

27-54 was the first half result.    In the 2nd half they are 2-1 which projects out to 54-27.       First half it took them 9 games to reach 2 wins.   2nd half it took 3 games.   My conclusion is that they are three times better now than they were then.    That conclusion is based on factual statistics that you can look up and cannot refute.   Try to poke holes in those stats  and conclusions.    You know, without referencing that lame small sample excuse.

 

Golly I love this post so much, it is rich with so much goodness.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I really like the Grossman-Dozier-Mauer-Sano-Kepler block in the lineup right now. All are capable of .340+ OBPs, 10%+ walk rates, and together have the potential to extend innings and really make pitchers work. 

Agreed, although of that group, I think Mauer and Grossman deserve to sit the most while we try to play/evaluate Vargas, Rosario, Santana, Escobar, etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed, although of that group, I think Mauer and Grossman deserve to sit the most while we try to play/evaluate Vargas, Rosario, Santana, Escobar, etc.

Yeah, that's the logical course of action to take... It's not as if we don't know who Mauer is at this point. As an aging vet, it certainly won't hurt him to sit one game a week as you try out some of the younger players.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

We should be able to both play Mauer and the others for solid baseball reasons.  Mauer plays better at a 135 games a year pace then at a 155 games a year pace. That has been true his entire career and is even more true after the brain injury.  Play Mauer 135 games a year and we might get .285 or .290/.385 with a .750-.825 OPS.  Play him 155 games a we'll get .255-.265/.340 and a .700 OPS.

I don't think there is a whole lot of evidence to support that theory.  Mauer's best season, he played at a 154 games started pace (after missing the first month in 2009).  Larger differences between Mauer ages 20-30 pre-concussion and Mauer age 33+ post-concussion overshadow any possible performance advantage in an extra 3 games off per month.

[kenbuddha]

From a team perspective, and we all know we're a bad team, after 84 games...

To end up at .500, the Twins would need to play .667 ball the rest of the way.

If the Twins play .550 ball the rest of the way, they’ll end up with 90 losses.
If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, 94 losses.
If they play .400 ball the rest of the way, 102 losses.
If they play .370 (their best monthly % this year = June), 104 losses.

I can’t help but think that somebody is going to lose their job. Knowing this franchise though, it will probably be me.

[Dantes929]

 

From a team perspective, and we all know we're a bad team, after 84 games...

To end up at .500, the Twins would need to play .667 ball the rest of the way.

If the Twins play .550 ball the rest of the way, they’ll end up with 90 losses.
If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, 94 losses.
If they play .400 ball the rest of the way, 102 losses.
If they play .370 (their best monthly % this year = June), 104 losses.

I can’t help but think that somebody is going to lose their job. Knowing this franchise though, it will probably be me.

With the way the Twins have played the last couple weeks playing .500 the rest of the way is a possibility.    If Sano, Dozier and Kepler continue to rake, Buxton improves and Berrios comes up and is a badass I can even imagine the .550 clip.   If this happens will you continue to say this is a bad team because of the 90 losses or will you say we were a bad team but now are pretty good?    Personally, I have been disappointed in the season but still look forward to watching them way more than I did a couple years ago.    Hopefully, they can split in Texas and continue to right the ship.     

[Mike Sixel]

If the young guys play well, and they go .550 the rest of the way? So, if everything goes right, will I continue to say they are bad?

 

I honestly don't know what I'd think if that happened. I think it would have to be driven by guys that are younger, and not by sequencing, and not by huge BABIP numbers for me to have a lot of faith in the reality. But I really don't know how confident I'd be in next year. They burned me badly last year, even with my lower expectations for this year......

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't agree; I think the statistics and medical evidence supports the thesis that Mauer will be more productive at a slightly reduced playing rate. I see Mauer at 138 games in 2009 (your 154 game pace), otherwise his best years are at 146 games in 2008, and 137 games in 2010 with all three of those years 2008-2010 at 510-526 ABs. You figure 4 at bats per position per game (probably higher for Mauer since he hits in the front of the order, although his walk brings down the ABs) and you get 648 ABs, with 518 ABs 80% of the theoretically available ABs. That equates to 130 games (129.6). You get roughly the same result with plate appearances. His best years range from 510 to 633 PA (higher when younger), so if you use the lower end of an average range to account for the natural effects of aging, say 560 plate appearances at 4.2 per game to account for walks at an average 5% rate you get 133 games (133.33). At the almost exact range average of 565 plate appearances you get 135 games. His worst year? Last year when he played in 155 games and had 666 plate appearances.

 

The medical literature also talks a lot about cognitive impairment and slow object recognition after a traumatic brain injury, and slower mental recovery times. That may explain Mauer's higher strikeout rate. It also may explain the pattern we're seeing this year where Mauer tends to fade after 5-6 games started in a row and then comes back strong after a day off. Witness the bounce back yesterday after finally getting a day off.

 

Look, we can all play with numbers but the true result is in the field and that's totally open to subjective interpretation. I just think from watching and seeing trends that Mauer is a much better player at 5 games a week than at 6 or 7.

There are so many other factors going on there, though. You really can't pin any of it on an extra 3 days off a month.

 

I like the idea of resting him more because it can't hurt, and he is very much a known quantity at spots (1B/DH) where we can easily take looks at less known quantities. I am under no illusions that the extra days off will dramatically boost his OPS, though.

[DocBauer]

If the young guys play well, and they go .550 the rest of the way? So, if everything goes right, will I continue to say they are bad?

 

I honestly don't know what I'd think if that happened. I think it would have to be driven by guys that are younger, and not by sequencing, and not by huge BABIP numbers for me to have a lot of faith in the reality. But I really don't know how confident I'd be in next year. They burned me badly last year, even with my lower expectations for this year......

At this point, as fans suffering but with rather obvious changes in the roster/lineup these days with more to invariably come, don't we have to divide the season in to entirely different halves?

 

I mean, we're not going to erase disappointment, frustration and a generally horrible first half. But we are opening the second half of the season with an OF that includes Rosario, Buxton and Kepler with the "old man" Grossman being a solid surprise. Sano is now playing where he should. Vargas is up and getting a shot. Some guys in the bullpen are looking like keepers. In the not too distant future, as I stated earlier, Berrios, Chargois and Polanco should be up.

 

I don't know if this new look, younger version of the Twins will play .450 ball, .500 or .550 ball. But I'm looking at the second half of the year as its own season at this point.

[stringer bell]

I think avoiding 100 losses is an achievable goal. I am with the optimists that believe there is quite a bit to build on and I don't really think the Twins are that far away from contention. The young outfield of Rosario-Buxton-Kepler, with Grossman as the 4th OF, looks really good to me.

 

The Twins need better pitching and that's what should come back if any of their roster is traded at the deadline.

[Platoon]

I agree with the concept that the second half of the season could be viewed both separately and with more optimism. Thats the good news. The bad news is .550 ball for example, will allow the ownership and FO to sell the same old theory. The ship is in good hands, it's in the process of a course correction, and all the issues out there,SP, mediocre middle defense, and a out of balance roster, are not really an iceberg. The Twins and some fans fall into the same trap yearly. A few good starts (Santana), an axe bat, and an ersatz AS SS, leave them and us ignoring the facts. We have no ace pitcher, terrible catching, and poor middle defense. The OF will be fine, and the RP will end up average. The rest is far from contending material.

[kab21]

 

If the young guys play well, and they go .550 the rest of the way? So, if everything goes right, will I continue to say they are bad?

 

I honestly don't know what I'd think if that happened. I think it would have to be driven by guys that are younger, and not by sequencing, and not by huge BABIP numbers for me to have a lot of faith in the reality. But I really don't know how confident I'd be in next year. They burned me badly last year, even with my lower expectations for this year......

So you would dismiss lucky results in the 2nd half of this year but you won't dismiss the awful luck from the 1st half of this year?

It seems that nobody will admit at just how terribly unlucky the Twins were at the beginning this year. They were never as bad as they played but nearly everyone hit way below what was expected or pitched terribly. Usually some players outperform while others underperform and it balances out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So you would dismiss lucky results in the 2nd half of this year but you won't dismiss the awful luck from the 1st half of this year?

It seems that nobody will admit at just how terribly unlucky the Twins were at the beginning this year. They were never as bad as they played but nearly everyone hit way below what was expected or pitched terribly. Usually some players outperform while others underperform and it balances out.

 

I have a whole thread where I was ripped for calling them unlucky.......so, ya, barking up the wrong tree.

[Vanimal46]

 

I agree with the concept that the second half of the season could be viewed both separately and with more optimism. Thats the good news. The bad news is .550 ball for example, will allow the ownership and FO to sell the same old theory. The ship is in good hands, it's in the process of a course correction, and all the issues out there,SP, mediocre middle defense, and a out of balance roster, are not really an iceberg. The Twins and some fans fall into the same trap yearly. A few good starts (Santana), an axe bat, and an ersatz AS SS, leave them and us ignoring the facts. We have no ace pitcher, terrible catching, and poor middle defense. The OF will be fine, and the RP will end up average. The rest is far from contending material.

That right there is why I have mixed feelings going into the 2nd half. The fan in me wants to see more wins and improvement. But I also want changes in the FO, and like you, I'm afraid if we do see significant improvements from the .350 win percentage the team currently has, we won't see the changes most of us are asking for. 

[sploorp]

 

That right there is why I have mixed feelings going into the 2nd half. The fan in me wants to see more wins and improvement. But I also want changes in the FO, and like you, I'm afraid if we do see significant improvements from the .350 win percentage the team currently has, we won't see the changes most of us are asking for. 

All the management is probably back no matter how badly they do.  Might as well hope for the best.

[old nurse]

 

then why did you read it? I read it as a "fun" exercise", not a real projection.

Then when you say that "this was not happy inducing" your fun is not being happy? 7-2 in their last 9, on pace now to finish above .500. That should make you less unhappy

[old nurse]

 

I agree with the concept that the second half of the season could be viewed both separately and with more optimism. Thats the good news. The bad news is .550 ball for example, will allow the ownership and FO to sell the same old theory. The ship is in good hands, it's in the process of a course correction, and all the issues out there,SP, mediocre middle defense, and a out of balance roster, are not really an iceberg. The Twins and some fans fall into the same trap yearly. A few good starts (Santana), an axe bat, and an ersatz AS SS, leave them and us ignoring the facts. We have no ace pitcher, terrible catching, and poor middle defense. The OF will be fine, and the RP will end up average. The rest is far from contending material.

Catching throughout the league is bad.  OF defense it depends on what metric you like. Kepler, Buxton and Rosario have the range, but DRS does not seem to like them. MI, might take 2 more years for Gordon. Polanco should be up.

Pohlad said something like they are looking at what they are doing wrong. Ryan has to come up with an answer. If the answer  does not satisfy Pohlad, Ryan goes. If there are no changes in the minor league structure then they would be depending on the staff to change how they do business. The general public will probably never find out what they discuss but unlike the pas Twins, no one would call the current group well versed in fundamentals and defense. The other side of the coin is that decent offense gets you to the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Then when you say that "this was not happy inducing" your fun is not being happy? 7-2 in their last 9, on pace now to finish above .500. That should make you less unhappy

 

Well, they weren't 7-2 when I wrote that......and I can like a post/article, while being unhappy about how the team is doing.

 

I am much happier now that they have realized Sano is a 3B, and not a RF, for example. Glad they figured it out......

Edited July 11, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[jimmer]

How is this team now on pace to finish above .500

[old nurse]

 

How is this team now on pace to finish above .500

They are 7-2 in their last nine games. If they continue that pace they will finish above .500.  Well above .500. Before you post a retort, remember that this thread is supposed to be all in fun.

[tobi0040]

They are 7-2 in their last nine games. If they continue that pace they will finish above .500.  Well above .500. Before you post a retort, remember that this thread is supposed to be all in fun.

After your first sentence I thought you were serious. Whew.