Article: Pacesetters: Crazy Halfway Projections

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins played their 81st game on Sunday, marking the exact halfway point of the 2016 season. Around this time, I always find it interesting to project some final numbers based on first-half totals.

 

Let's examine a few noteworthy and surprising on-pace numbers for the Minnesota Twins.For the purposes of keeping things tidy, I based these projections solely upon the first 81 games, meaning that Monday's and Tuesday's are not accounted for. Obviously, that small sample would not affect the numbers much anyway.

 

The Twins are on pace to finish 54-108.

 

It would be the most losses ever for a Twins team, and third-most in franchise history behind the Washington Senators of 1904 (113 losses) and 1909 (110 losses). Fifty-four wins would be the fewest for the franchise in a 162-game season, beating out the 1982 Twins (60 wins).

 

Brian Dozier is on pace for 26 home runs, 32 doubles, six triples (64 XBH).

 

A remarkable turnaround, considering that at the quarter-pole (41 games) he was on pace for only 40 extra-base hits. Now he's back on track with his production from 2014 (62 XBH) and 2015 (71 XBH), restoring his standing as one of the game's best power-hitting second basemen. If he could find a way to avoid these lengthy hitting slumps, Dozier could graduate to truly elite territory, but alas, he has yet to turn that corner.

 

Joe Mauer is on pace for 14 doubles.

 

Astounding. Outside of the 2011 season where he was limited to 82 games by leg problems, Mauer has never finished with fewer than 26 doubles. His 162-game average over the course of his career is 37. This number speaks to his decline more than any other, I think.

 

Kurt Suzuki is on pace for 388 plate appearances.

 

Worth noting because Suzuki's contract has a 2017 option that vests with 485 plate appearance this season. There's no way he's hitting that number.

 

Byron Buxton is on pace to strike out 122 times.

 

That's quite a number given the limited amount of time he has spent in the majors. Since the year 2000, the Twins have only had players post higher strikeout totals 11 times, and those guys all had a heck of a lot more plate appearances than the 310 Buxton is on pace for.

 

Michael Tonkin is on pace for 96 strikeouts.

 

Getting more K's from the bullpen was a priority this year after that unit ranked at the bottom of the league for the past several seasons. The Twins haven't had a reliever strike out 90-plus hitters since Joe Nathan fanned 95 back in 2008. Ryan Pressly and Trevor May are both on pace for more than 80 strikeouts, which is another feat no bullpen guy other than Nathan has achieved for the Twins in the past decade.

 

The Twins are on pace to shatter their record of pitchers used in a season.

 

At the the halfway point, the Twins have already used 23 different pitchers. The team record of 25 was set back in 2012.

 

Eduardo Nunez is on pace to steal 38 bases with 22 homers.

 

And he received an All-Star nod this week for his efforts. Nunez has had a fantastic season at the plate, and he's been a real treat for fantasy baseball players too.

 

Max Kepler is on pace to finish with six fewer RBI than Joe Mauer.

 

This actually understates things, because Kepler has 200 fewer plate appearances due to time spent in the minors. If the rookie continues to play regularly the rest of the way, he will decimate Mauer's RBI total. It's a big statement about the seasons both players are having.

 

The Twins are on pace to allow 881 runs.

 

Only twice since the franchise came to Minnesota have teams allowed more: 1995 and 1996, the height of the Steroid Era.

 

The Twins are on pace to score 682 runs.

 

And that's with Saturday's 17-run outburst pushing up the needle. It's fewer than they scored in 2015 or 2014; a dreadful disappointment for a club that focused so strongly on run-scoring when constructing its roster.

 

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[tobi0040]

Buxton's first stint was a 49% k rate. It is down to 33% in the second stint.

[bluechipper]

Those Joe Mauer stats just make me sad.

[Vanimal46]

Ditto on feeling sad for the Mauer stats. The hope of him achieving even 75% of his glory year's production is dwindling fast. 

As someone who's continuously ripped Tonkin before this season, I am sorry and will eat crow. He's looking like he can be a solid middle inning reliever for the team going forward.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins are on pace to finish 54-108.

It would be the most losses ever for a Twins team, and third-most in franchise history behind the Washington Senators of 1904 (113 losses) and 1909 (110 losses). Fifty-four wins would be the fewest for the franchise in a 162-game season, beating out the 1982 Twins (60 wins).

Interestingly, the 1981 and 1982 Twins teams both had a similar or worse pace after 81 games, but the 1982 team "rebounded" to 60 wins (and the 1981 team rebounded to a 61 win pace, although the season was shortened by a strike).  The 1982 team was 24-57 at the midway point, the worst mark in Twins history (post-1961).

 

It's pretty disheartening to think that simply avoiding 100 losses would represent a big "rebound" at this point...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As someone who's continuously ripped Tonkin before this season, I am sorry and will eat crow. He's looking like he can be a solid middle inning reliever for the team going forward.  

Somehow Tonkin still has the lowest leverage index of any reliever on the staff, at 0.72.  Lower than his pre-2016 career mark, even lower than mop-up man Neil Ramirez at 0.79.  Hopefully that starts trending up now that Jepsen is gone, and we can get a better idea of what Tonkin can bring to a bigger bullpen role.

[Vanimal46]

 

Somehow Tonkin still has the lowest leverage index of any reliever on the staff, at 0.72.  Lower than his pre-2016 career mark, even lower than mop-up man Neil Ramirez at 0.79.  Hopefully that starts trending up now that Jepsen is gone, and we can get a better idea of what Tonkin can bring to a bigger bullpen role.

Interesting numbers. I would very much like to see Tonkin in higher leverage situations now that he's shown he can stick on the MLB roster. 

[tobi0040]

Spy,

 

Please stop pointing out facts like the leverage index.

 

It is sad enough to see the run differential, Mauer's 14 doubles, and So on. Adding in the inept decisions is just salt on a fresh wound.

 

Next you are going to tell us that Mauer's 14 doubles have been at the top of the order all year........

[troyhobbs]

These numbers would seem to support my theory that the Twins are a terrible baseball team and the FO should be gutted. We'd have to see what the year end projections for attendance and concessions are though for that to be considered.

[Blackjack]

 

 We'd have to see what the year end projections for attendance and concessions are though for that to be considered.

Less $8 beers and $10 hot dogs sold is what will ultimately bring about change in management. When the money stops rolling in, heads will roll.

[Blackjack]

When does Mauer say "I've made enough money, I'm going to retire before I embarrass myself anymore"?

[jimbo92107]

It looks like Michael Tonkin is gradually developing into a dominant relief pitcher at the mlb level. In AAA he was dominating merely by whipping his 96 mph heater and his wipe-out slider past inferior hitters, not having to worry much about making mistakes placing his heater. 

 

At the mlb level he faces hitters that can square up and pound almost anything that gets too close to the middle. This means Tonkin has had to develop finer command, which requires more precise mechanics. He can't fly open too soon and let his heater level out or sail anymore. MLB hitters also know how to work the count and get a non-precise pitcher into bad counts. 

 

Earlier in the season I too thought Tonkin wasn't going to make it, but now he has changed my mind. Around the time he took a line drive to his thigh and kept going, I thought I saw from him a new level of determination. Before, he seemed to have an aw-shucks, Mayberry look on his face. Now he looks like all business out there. I'm glad Molitor has shown patience with him; it might just pay off. 

[Mike Sixel]

This was........not happy inducing.....

[old nurse]

What any player and the team is on pace for is utterly meaningless .81 games in and 4 players have played in 3/4 of the games   One of those for players is now in the minors.  Starting pitching,  Nolasco is the only pitcher to make their scheduled. Santana has missed a few.  The roster is in flux. Projections of the team are meaningless. Projection on what the players may do is subject to flux.  Your own comment on Dozier shows that.

[old nurse]

 

 

When does Mauer say "I've made enough money, I'm going to retire before I embarrass myself anymore"?

Spring of 2019.  Concussions and pride are difficult to overcome.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What any player and the team is on pace for is utterly meaningless .81 games in and 4 players have played in 3/4 of the games   One of those for players is now in the minors.  Starting pitching,  Nolasco is the only pitcher to make their scheduled. Santana has missed a few.  The roster is in flux. Projections of the team are meaningless. Projection on what the players may do is subject to flux.  Your own comment on Dozier shows that.

 

then why did you read it? I read it as a "fun" exercise", not a real projection.

[Rosterman]

Projections are always fun meaningless excursions into what-might be. Like the guys on other teams that might win 30 games this year. Ha! 

 

How about this: last year it took the Twins 161 games before being eliminated from the playoffs. This season, it took only one game!

[Halsey Hall]

We didn't add to the runs scored total today, the average is going down.

[mikelink45]

Exercises like this are fun and give us something to read and write about.  No projection is truly dependable, but that is not the purpose.  If we were leading the division the stories would be different, but if TD is going to keep us entertained we need the writers to play with the facts that they have at hand.

[70charger]

 

This was........not happy inducing.....

 

There was a mix there. Focus on the positive!

 

Kepler is killing it, tons of strikeouts from three young and cheap bullpen pitchers, Dozier has turned it around completely, Suzuki's option won't vest. There's some good here!

[Mike Sixel]

 

There was a mix there. Focus on the positive!

 

Kepler is killing it, tons of strikeouts from three young and cheap bullpen pitchers, Dozier has turned it around completely, Suzuki's option won't vest. There's some good here!

 

Good point......admittedly, when I typed that, I was in the middle of a bad call at work.....

[70charger]

 

Good point......admittedly, when I typed that, I was in the middle of a bad call at work.....

 

Well.... there's some bad there too, to be fair.

 

Hope the call went okay.

[ashbury]

Good point......admittedly, when I typed that, I was in the middle of a bad call at work.....

For perspective, here is the middle of a bad call at work for Armando Galarraga. Hope yours was better.

 

[Circus Boy]

I'm enjoying the games more lately, mostly because we're getting competitive and playing a better mix of players. The Hawaiian Ax Murderer -- Suzuki -- is a delight, as are Kepler, Sano, Vargas, Nunez and Dozier. The pitching shines more (in a good way). Over the last 10 games, we have our first winning record this season at 6-4. And since May 25 we're 18-21 -- not great, but certainly better.

 

I'm looking forward to the second half.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm enjoying the games more lately, mostly because we're getting competitive and playing a better mix of players. The Hawaiian Ax Murderer -- Suzuki -- is a delight, as are Kepler, Sano, Vargas, Nunez and Dozier. The pitching shines more (in a good way). Over the last 10 games, we have our first winning record this season at 6-4. And since May 25 we're 18-21 -- not great, but certainly better.

 

I'm looking forward to the second half.

.500 from here on out will leave us at 68-94.

 

Frankly I am more interested in individual performances and team composition the rest of the way. If we get to 68 wins without answering a lot of questions going into 2017, that's not ideal.

[deanlambrecht]

What any player and the team is on pace for is utterly meaningless .81 games in and 4 players have played in 3/4 of the games   One of those for players is now in the minors.  Starting pitching,  Nolasco is the only pitcher to make their scheduled. Santana has missed a few.  The roster is in flux. Projections of the team are meaningless. Projection on what the players may do is subject to flux.  Your own comment on Dozier shows that.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C6cxNR9ML8k

[theBOMisthebomb]

"Over the last 10 games, we have our first winning record this season at 6-4. And since May 25 we're 18-21 -- not great, but certainly better." Thanks (slap to the face). I needed that.

[DocBauer]

There was a mix there. Focus on the positive!

 

Kepler is killing it, tons of strikeouts from three young and cheap bullpen pitchers, Dozier has turned it around completely, Suzuki's option won't vest. There's some good here!

 

This is my feeling as well. I'm focused...even amidst a dreadful season and the entire TR will he or won't he be back...on how we play and finish the rest of the season. I'm focused on this because a} frankly, better baseball and my team playing better and winning is a good and fun thing, (duh!) the actual play of the youngsters!

 

As bad as the season has been, there are a lot of things to pay attention to and enjoy:

 

*Buxton is being allowed to play almost daily, and there are positive signs

*Ditto with Kepler

*Sano can still mash, will only get better, and is playing 3B

*Rosario is talented, bashed AAA, is back up

*Grossman, I think, is a nice overall player we uncovered

*Gibson is rounding in to shape and pitching much better

*Ditto for Duffey, who still doesn't have a full season under his belt yet

*Rogers, Pressly and Tonkin are all young RP looking positive

*Berrios should be up soon to finish out the season

*Chargois will be up again, and probably fairly soon

*I'm thrilled Vargas is up and playing and I hope he runs with the opportunity

*Polanco? (Sigh) Hopefully up soon.

 

These are all good, exciting things to watch the rest of the year from a nice collection of young players. With more to follow.

[Teflon]

Note: If the Twins can beat Texas tomorrow, it will be the first winning record they've posted over any 10-game stretch this season.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Note: If the Twins can beat Texas tomorrow, it will be the first winning record they've posted over any 10-game stretch this season.

I think you missed the result today? They are already 6-4 over their last 10, as noted above. Won the finale in NY, then one win in 3 games in Chicago, then 2 of 3 from each of the Rangers and A's at home.