Article: Long-Term Woes

[Nick Nelson]

This year's Minnesota Twins team is bad. Like, most losses in baseball bad. Like, less than half as many wins (25) as the Texas Rangers (51) bad. We've come to terms with this bitter reality.

 

But what really stings about the ongoing setbacks here in 2016 is the long-term implications. Almost every week, it seems like a new development comes along to sap away any hope for a quick turnaround.Obviously, the young players who are being relied upon as the lifeblood of a return to contention have largely scuffled. Byron Buxton looks nowhere near taking competent major-league at-bats. Tyler Duffey has a 5.59 ERA. Eddie Rosario, John Ryan Murphy, Jose Berrios and JT Chargois are in Triple-A, with nothing to show for their MLB time this season. Miguel Sano has been all right, but far from the MVP-caliber player that some dummy stupidly predicted him to be.

 

The severity and consistency of these youths' struggles call into question the organization's development and coaching processes. But, at the same time, this is sort of the nature of the beast. Sometimes, it takes a while.

 

What really dulls any sense of enthusiasm relating to this team is the way things are playing out with entrenched veterans.

 

Joe Mauer is reaffirming his status as a mediocrity who will continue to bat third indefinitely. It's getting harder and harder to believe that will change.

 

Byung Ho Park is technically a rookie, but not, in the sense that he's a 29-year-old with four guaranteed years of salary on this contract. He's batting .191 and on the verge of a demotion to the minors. (UPDATE: Park was optioned to Triple-A on Friday.)

 

Glen Perkins, the only member of the bullpen who could be considered a reliable commodity at this point, is out for the year with surgery for a torn labrum, his career now in doubt.

 

Phil Hughes, who is under contract longer than anyone else on the roster (through 2019), is also undergoing shoulder surgery. He is three years younger than Perkins, and his operation is somewhat less serious, but a Beyond the Box Score writer who examined the history of thoracic outlet syndrome last year concluded that "counting on a pitcher who has been through this injury is a terrifying proposition."

 

Since signing the largest free agent contract in franchise history, Ervin Santana has a 4.17 ERA, an 80-game PED ban, and a continually declining strikeout rate.

 

Ricky Nolasco is Ricky Nolasco. Still on the payroll through next year.

 

The resurgence of Brian Dozier (and, in fairness, what a freaking resurgence) is the only remote glimmer of optimism regarding any of the team's established players who are locked in. You can bet that there will be plenty of talk about trading him as the deadline approaches, which is understandable but also a statement on just how far this team may be from a return to relevance.

 

The Twins have given us very little to celebrate as we head into the summer's foremost holiday weekend. On the bright side, there is still half a baseball season remaining, and plenty of time for some positive big-picture signs to emerge.

 

Boy, could we use them.

 

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[Pardon My Dinger]

So, did Joe shart himself in that pic or what?

[diehardtwinsfan]

always darkest before the dawn???

 

Hope that's the case, though I'd probably punt on 2017 at this point and let those rookies take their lumps... Problem is that 2017 will suck.

[70charger]

 

On the bright side, there is still half a baseball season remaining, and plenty of time for some positive big-picture signs to emerge.

 

I mean, I'm not holding my breath, but...

[KirbyDome89]

I agree it is going to take time with the younger players. I think the issue with development is spot on. Making sure a player is ready to play at the MLB level when they're promoted, not wasting option years, making sure when players are up they're getting playing time not sitting on the bench, giving a young player a chance to fail before shipping them back down (especially when you're the worst team in baseball); these are all a part of player development. 

[twinsnorth49]

I don't see positive, big picture signs emerging until the organisation starts to recognise the big picture for this team.

 

It's not competing anytime soon, stop thinking it is or will. Get as many young players some meaningful playing time as possible.

[jimbo92107]

I'm actually optimistic about this team's long-term prospects, unless they start trading away their top youngsters. But you have to concede that for the next couple years, this team is going to look like a bunch of guys transitioning from AAA to the majors. Forget about playoffs with this group, it's far too soon. They may start coming together sometime around 2018, but probably not before. 

 

For that reason they should trade or DFA as many veteran players as possible right now, and then start playing younger guys. Don't bring in any more mediocre pitchers or players from other teams. Use the mediocre players from our own system. Might as well get started. 

[mickeymental]

núñez?

[twinssouth]

Long term woes are result of these ridiculous contracts Ryan made; Hughes, Molasses Nolasco, Santana. Back in 2014, Hughes was like 1 inning short of making $500,000 bonus and declined to pitch. Ryan was so impressed he extends Hughes contract for another 3 years or so. Amazing. The kids will take their lumps but to have mediocre vets stand in the way from promoting kids that are more deserving is what bothers me.

[mazeville]

Yeah, yuck. Here's what they should do, other than an overhaul of the front office and system (which is, unfortunately, a must).

 

1. Trade players who might generate a return, like Dozier, Fernando Abad and perhaps Ervin Santana and -- can't believe I'm saying this - Kurt Suzuki. This team needs to collect young assets. Badly.

 

2. Trade players to open up spots for young players. This is where Santana might come in or, say, Trevor Plouffe. If some players need to be DFA'd, then DFA them.

 

3. Be patient with the kids. Call up Berrios. Call up Rosario. Call up Polanco. Call up Murphy. Call up Chargois. Run or stumble with them. They're your future.

 

4. In the offseason, focus any free agent signings or trades on acquiring younger players. I'd kill to see this team engineer a trade like the one that netted the Cubs Anthony Rizzo in 2012. I'd also love to see this team compete more aggressively with international free agents from, say, Cuba. 

 

5. Make food and drinks cheaper at Target Field until this damn team competes and provide us fans with ticket deals. 'Cuz this team is not going to compete for another couple of years at least and you'll need the fans.

[wsnydes]

Well that was an insightful, invigorating read to start the day!  Such joy it has brought me!  It gives me a "What could possibly go wrong today?" vibe.

 

In all seriousness though, I think this is laid out pretty well.  There are positive signs in the not so distant future.  However, those signs are obscured by hanging tree branches that are a delusional understanding of where this team is.  Playing aging veterans over kids that are showing their readiness in AAA does nothing for you.  It doesn't help you win games.  It doesn't help you fill seats.  It doesn't help you sell more of your expensive concessions or fill your ever expanding plethora of bars. It simply brings more of the same.  More of the same mediocrity.  More of the same complacency.  More of the same apathy from fans.  More of stupid baseball and the losses it brings with.

 

With the recent comments from TR, I'm convinced that he can't see the forest through the trees.  That's alarming to me in so many ways.  We've already endured four recent 90+ loss seasons.  How much more patience can this FO and ownership expect the fans to exhibit when they exhibit no inkling of making the necessary changes.

[SarasotaBill]

Every move should be based on improving 2018-2022 teams.

 

Trade Nunez and Dozier since they have peak value.

Trade Suzuki and Obad if you can get anything good.

Trade Plouffe because Sano needs to be playing 3rd base.

Trade E. Santana if you get decent value.

 

Park should be in AAA getting at bats every day for the next month or two.

[wsnydes]

The Cubs improved rapidly because they unloaded their bad contracts, whether it be via trade or outright releasing them.  That freed up time for cheaper, more effective players and eventually to their stud farm system that they developed via unloading trades of the few valuable vets they had.  This FO is not that far thinking and that's backed up by TR's comments.

 

[troyhobbs]

 

Well that was an insightful, invigorating read to start the day!  Such joy it has brought me!  It gives me a "What could possibly go wrong today?" vibe.

 

In all seriousness though, I think this is laid out pretty well.  There are positive signs in the not so distant future.  However, those signs are obscured by hanging tree branches that are a delusional understanding of where this team is.  Playing aging veterans over kids that are showing their readiness in AAA does nothing for you.  It doesn't help you win games.  It doesn't help you fill seats.  It doesn't help you sell more of your expensive concessions or fill your ever expanding plethora of bars. It simply brings more of the same.  More of the same mediocrity.  More of the same complacency.  More of the same apathy from fans.  More of stupid baseball and the losses it brings with.

 

With the recent comments from TR, I'm convinced that he can't see the forest through the trees.  That's alarming to me in so many ways.  We've already endured four recent 90+ loss seasons.  How much more patience can this FO and ownership expect the fans to exhibit when they exhibit no inkling of making the necessary changes.

Not sure if the TR comments you're referring to are the ones I recently read about how he doesn't believe in players learning at the MLB level and it's not fair to the other 24 guys that are trying to win etc. but is that guy thick headed or what...??? Sid also recently posted an interview with Pohlad that sorta implied he's starting to back off his support of Ryan and that TR may no longer be GM for life, so maybe there is hope....

[wsnydes]

 

Not sure if the TR comments you're referring to are the ones I recently read about how he doesn't believe in players learning at the MLB level and it's not fair to the other 24 guys that are trying to win etc. but is that guy thick headed or what...??? Sid also recently posted an interview with Pohlad that sorta implied he's starting to back off his support of Ryan and that TR may no longer be GM for life, so maybe there is hope....

Those are the comments I was referring to.

 

I'd have more hope for Polhad's comments if they weren't reported by Sid.  He does still have his moments though.

[DaveW]

Good article Nick.

 

This team is in trouble and won't compete until 2018 at the earliest now. The silver lining is that it will free up about 900 hours of my spring/summer time the rest of this year and all of next year.

[Han Joelo]

If you want to look at the "bright" side, I think we are witnessing an historically bad phenomena.  And I don't just mean baseball, I'm talking all of human related history. This is like Vesuvius wiping out Pompeii, or Atlantis sinking into the ocean.  It is fascinating to watch, much like it would have been interesting to have somehow lived through the meteor impact that wiped out the dinosaurs.  It's almost like the inverse of the statistically improbable set of events that occurred to create life on earth those many millions of years ago.  Cluster luck to the extreme.

 

Who will survive?  What types of adaptations will evolve in the new super-species that is left after this debacle?

 

Are TR and Molitor the right people to be leading the team through this calamity of biblical proportions?  I don't know.  But people laughed at and criticized Noah...

[Winston Smith]

"This year's Minnesota Twins team is bad. Like, most losses in baseball bad. Like, less than half as many wins (25) as the Texas Rangers (51) bad."

 

Last year at the trade deadline the Twins were 54-49 and the Rangers were 50-53. The Rangers went out and got Cole Hamels a top of the rotation pitcher, the Twins got Jepsen. The Rangers went up made the playoffs and the Twins went down missed the playoffs.

Two teams with good farm systems at the same place in the standings last year one goes for it with a big trade the other nibbles around the edges. How'd it work out?

 

[TheLeviathan]

There are so many systemic roster issues it'll take a season just to clean that up and let the dust settle. 

 

Hopefully we have an entirely new group of people running the show for that.

Edited July 1, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[Eephus]

Agree with many of the comments that this is going to be several years before this team is good. I mean we are talking about names like Gonsalves, Gordon, Stewart (not too mention the older younger guys) might be on the team or a year or two when this team is good again. 

 

It might be window dressing and it might be easier said than done, but I'd really like to see this team emphasize the fundamentals with the young guys. Some of it is experience, but seems like we need a few years of baserunning, fielding, fundamentals boot camp. I would have thought that was part of Molly's forte, but I'm not seeing it.

[HitInAPinch]

I'll post this link once again.  MiLB players, no matter how high their ranking is, will take some time to adapt to the MLB:

 

http://www.startribune.com/phil-miller-s-sunday-insider-red-sox-show-how-patience-with-prospects-can-be-rewarded/383534181/

[wsnydes]

 

There are so many systemic roster issues it'll take a season just to clean that up and let the dust settle. 

 

Hopefully we have an entirely new group of people running the show for that.

Agreed.  At this point, I'm just hoping that it starts instead of this treading water that we've been seeing for the last 5 years.

[Dr. Evil]

So, did Joe shart himself in that pic or what?

Unfortunately, yes. USA Today attempted to photoshop it out of there but their attempt failed. Just too big of a mess to cover up. :0\

[tobi0040]

This team has no shot until they get new decision makers. Period.

 

Call me when that happens.

 

On a side note, has "Park Night" this Tuesday with a meet and greet going to be relocated to Rochester?

[Jham]

 

If you want to look at the "bright" side, I think we are witnessing an historically bad phenomena.  And I don't just mean baseball, I'm talking all of human related history. This is like Vesuvius wiping out Pompeii, or Atlantis sinking into the ocean.  It is fascinating to watch, much like it would have been interesting to have somehow lived through the meteor impact that wiped out the dinosaurs.  It's almost like the inverse of the statistically improbable set of events that occurred to create life on earth those many millions of years ago.  Cluster luck to the extreme.

 

Who will survive?  What types of adaptations will evolve in the new super-species that is left after this debacle?

 

Are TR and Molitor the right people to be leading the team through this calamity of biblical proportions?  I don't know.  But people laughed at and criticized Noah...

Solidly entertaining post.

[Jham]

One thought, if our extended future isn't much brighter than our current state, doesn't that say just as much about our next wave of talent as it does about our current roster?  Personally, I don't blame Hughes, or Plouffe, or Mauer, or Jepsen.  We're stinking awful because we were built on Kepler, and Sano, and Buxton, Rosario, and Burdi, and Reed, and Berrios, and Meyer, and May, and Gibson, and to a lesser extent Arcia, Hicks, JR Murphy, D San, Polanco, and Josmil Pinto being serviceable to all star.  Gibson, May, and Sano have been serviceable to good, but most of the others are borderline unplayable.  That's a huge list of talent that's failed, failing, flailing, or otherwise not met expectations.  And unlike a lot of other posters, I do not think that playing them all at once will make them a playoff team in 3 years.  I think we're seeing a perfect storm of prospects who will struggle to ever live up to the hype.  Many should have been traded before bombing in the MLB.  I hope our plan isn't to just assume these prospects are our future, trade off or release everyone else and hope for the best.  We've ruined a lot of trade stock by holding (hoarding) prospects too long.  We have to look to get better through trades of veterans if possible, trades of prospects where we have an advantage, and smart signings of free agents.  

If things are really that bad, we need to trade Sano and Gibson who both figure to be too expensive to keep by the time we get good, and may be at peak value now, with little service to 90 loss clubs.  They're the only guys I see bringing much return unless Berrios can come tear it up for a month.  

Personally, I think we can be competitive as early as next season, but maybe I'm still buying into the prospect hype...  Dozier and Sano would have to be All Stars, we have an opportunity to jump up big time at catcher, our outfield might not hit, but may not let a ball drop, and Berrios, Gibson, May, Duffey and Santana could still be a decent rotation.  Bull pen is relatively easy to upgrade through trades, promotion, or free agency.  Two prospects jump up and say Gibson and May have career years, and who knows.  Unlikely, but who knows.

[HitInAPinch]

http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0535/6917/products/despairdemotivator.jpeg?v=1403275969

 

Happy, now?     Just kidding.

 

I'm looking at some positives: 

 

Plouffe has been moved around, playing different positions.

When Sano went down, Kepler has come in and is improving at a steady pace.

With that improvement and the Plouffe rotation, Sano is now playing 3rd and

Park was sent down, which was the right move.

Duffey had a bounce back game

With the struggles of the starting staff, the bullpen has been hanging in there [ minus Jepsen ]

Nunez keeps hitting, but honestly needs a couple days off.  He defense is getting worse, from not good

 

I'd like to see Berrios and Meyer get fair shots and, if / when in trouble, get pulled quickly.  I don't like what Twins did to them earlier this year.  And I'd like to see other MiLB players rotated in this year as a prep for Spring Training next year.

[kusko_andy]

Yes, Santana has a 4.17 ERA since coming to the Twins. 

 

...Which is right in line with his career 4.18 ERA.  That is who he is.  That's who we gave the biggest free agent contract in Twins history to. 

[Rosterman]

I like going to ball games to savor The Target Field Experience. The adorable off-key National Anthem sung by the grade school choir, the fireworks during that anthem, the old guy hoisting the flag, Jim Cunningham, (PA Guy) trying to make lame games sound fun, seeing the little kids try to put bases into holes, sitting all alone in the upper deck (shades of the Metrodome), not eating the best stadium food ever because it is the most expensive stadium food ever, nice not having to scoreboard watch, but that lineup has horrible batting averages, hey the pitcher is worse yet, why is the front office staff isolated in a box and not enjoying the Target Field experience in the fresh air with the fans, wow sure doesn't look like 20,000 fans, when did that guy join the bullpen, I wonder if my friend has any Saints tickets - they have good food and it is cheap-er, too bad the grounds crew is so good - cute to see kids at T-ball pull dandelions when the game gets boring, how many guys pitched tonight, jeez I wonder if the wife wants to do a road trip to Cedar Rapids.

[Craig Arko]

I like going to ball games to savor The Target Field Experience. The adorable off-key National Anthem sung by the grade school choir, the fireworks during that anthem, the old guy hoisting the flag, Jim Cunningham, (PA Guy) trying to make lame games sound fun, seeing the little kids try to put bases into holes, sitting all alone in the upper deck (shades of the Metrodome), not eating the best stadium food ever because it is the most expensive stadium food ever, nice not having to scoreboard watch, but that lineup has horrible batting averages, hey the pitcher is worse yet, why is the front office staff isolated in a box and not enjoying the Target Field experience in the fresh air with the fans, wow sure doesn't look like 20,000 fans, when did that guy join the bullpen, I wonder if my friend has any Saints tickets - they have good food and it is cheap-er, too bad the grounds crew is so good - cute to see kids at T-ball pull dandelions when the game gets boring, how many guys pitched tonight, jeez I wonder if the wife wants to do a road trip to Cedar Rapids.

Just like Disney! But with baseball.