Article: Setting Up For The Second Half

[DocBauer]

All of the points in the article are spot on! I think we all can agree on that. Of course, other points I think we can all agree on is getting rid of both Nolasco, Jepsen and Plouffe...however it takes place. And Berrios and Polanco need to get up here and soon!

Again, I think we all can agree on this.

 

Once again, Dozier is an interesting topic. Whether traded now, or after the season, he could bring some actual value. I don't feel the Twins HAVE to trade him, but they should definately listen to offers. I'm now leaning to keeping him for the remainder of the season, play Polanco on a regular basis, and then decide the best course of action in the offseason.

 

I also think you listen for E Santana and move him if a nice option comes along to do so. But I'm in no hurry to move him. At this point, Hughes is a complete unknown from stuff, to health, to role, and can't be counted on for anything at this point. He's also untradable. I think it is FAIRLY safe to pencil Duffy, Gibson and Berrios to next season'starts rotation. If Santana is gone, don't we end up needing another veteran to replace him?

[KirbyDome89]

 

You certainly can disagree.  You asked me a question "Why wouldn't the Twins trade Santana?" when replying to a post I wrote that laid out the reasons I wouldn't trade him. 

 

Trevor May is not a starter according to the people in charge of this organization.  I hope there are new people in charge by this offseason, but for now there is no reason to assume he will be a rotation option.  

 

Tommy Milone?  The guy who 6 weeks ago cleared waivers? You think the Twins are going to offer him arbitration and slot him into a rotation spot next season?  Say he stays in the rotation the rest of this season and pitches ok.. ~$6 million arbitration? NO

 

What makes you think Nolasco or Hughes should be counted on for anything next season, let alone take up 40% of the starting rotation?

I'm hopeful that May can use some "rehab," time to stretch out a bit, it would be nice to see him in the starting rotation again. I agree that just because the team is bad it doesn't mean you get rid of anybody who has value, but they should always listen. If they get a decent offer for Santana then they should flip him. Next season they'll have Gibson, May, Berrios, and Duffey. Santana fits nicely to complete the rotation but I don't see him as a key piece. The staff has been terrible this year even with him and I don't see him or the staff improving a ton while he stays. The Twins won't miss his contract either. Its a sad statement, but if they're going to have a terrible starting rotation, then it might as well be a cheap one so monetary resources can be allocated to other areas of need (I'm trying to convince myself they will). Also if they can get a player or two who will be ready to contribute in a couple years when the team is (hopefully) better, that is more beneficial than having Santana with the team pitching through losing/mediocre seasons until his contract ends. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Once again, Dozier is an interesting topic. Whether traded now, or after the season, he could bring some actual value. I don't feel the Twins HAVE to trade him, but they should definately listen to offers. I'm now leaning to keeping him for the remainder of the season, play Polanco on a regular basis, and then decide the best course of action in the offseason.

Even *if* Ryan is willing to trade Dozier, fans shouldn't get upset if he isn't moved at the deadline.

 

Dozier is a better offseason trade candidate than a deadline trade candidate.

[Kwak]

Trade Dozier? The Twins made him the new face of the team. I find it impossible that they would trade Dozier until a "new face" has been designated.

[markos]

 

I seem to recall Bill James long ago calling the ability to draw walks an old player's skill. Maybe that's not quite the same as patience, but it's on that spectrum.

 

I don't have any stats to back it up one direction or the other, but I'd be more inclined to wait on a player who showed power in the minors, than to wait on a player who showed patience. All else being equal, which it never is.

There has been a lot of discussion about this very question within the sabermetric community. I was just listening to a podcast talk about "ceiling" for position players, and how it just so difficult to predict power development for players. There is a long list of very good players who were supposed to be low-power guys who figured out a way to hit for power and went from mediocre (or even non-prospect) to All-Star. Just looking at the best hitters in baseball so far this year, guys like Matt Carpenter, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, Jackie Bradley Jr, Aledmys Diaz, Ben Zobrist, Mookie Betts all fall under this general category. Most of those guys are carrying ISOs above .200 right now with very little expectation when they were drafted (or even their first few big league seasons) that they would be 20+ homer guys. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

yeah, a 1.000 OPS is reasonable expectation for him.

At least we're holding him to a fair standard. 

[ashbury]

Most of those guys are carrying ISOs above .200 right now with very little expectation when they were drafted (or even their first few big league seasons) that they would be 20+ homer guys. 

Coming from it slightly in the reverse direction, there's a lot of .200 ISO guys, which would make for a good study (for someone with better database skills than me) but is time-consuming to spot check by hand. Just looking at the top 10 guys in MLB this year (.280 and above), the guys like Arenado, Duvall, and Bruce had 20 homer seasons in the minors while in their late teens or early twenties. Ortiz, Rizzo and Bryant were all considered power bats as prospects. Story, Machado, they had double digit HR as teens and brought up young enough that their power was still developing. Lamb and Carpenter reached double digit HR while a little older in the minors, so might be examples of what you're describing, but hardly under the radar to the scouts rating them, I'd have to think. Expectation versus ceiling, might be the farthest you could distinguish.