Article: Kent Hrbek And The All-Star Game

[Bill Parker]

A while back, a few of us (Twins Daily writers and some other unsavories) were talking on Twitter about Kent Hrbek, and how odd it was that in a career that spanned 12 full seasons, during almost all of which he was one of the four or five best first basemen in the American League, he'd made only one All-Star Game, and that in his rookie season of 1982.

 

Seth quickly found the reason why, in this 1987 article (and it's been written up locally more recently, too). The gist: through July 9, 1987, after years of futility, the Twins were leading the West Division by two games. Yet, when the rosters were announced for the All-Star game to be held in Oakland early the following week, only Kirby Puckett was selected to be among the American League reserves. Hrbek, who was hitting .275 with an eye-popping 23 home runs, didn't make it, and neither did anyone else on the team.

 

"I'm peeved, not just (for) myself, but because it shows nothing for the whole team," Hrbek was quoted as saying. "I accepted not making it when we weren`t doing well. This I don`t accept. If those guys ask me to go again, they can kiss my butt. I played in my first All-Star Game in 1982, and when I played in 1982 it was my last one."

 

Fair enough, I suppose! It's kind of a nice gesture, standing up for one's teammates (and one's pride). What I wondered was: did he have a point? Should he, or any other Twin, have made the team?Might as well deal with first basemen first. Red Sox manager John McNamara ultimately named four players who were primarily first basemen that year to the roster, behind elected starter Don Mattingly--Mark McGwire, Pat Tabler, George Brett and his own man, Dwight Evans--though Brett and Evans were both better known for playing, and spent time in 1987 at, other positions (in the game itself, Dewey played right field, and Brett did not play). At any rate, although I can't confirm this, the article only mentions McGwire and Tabler, so it appears that to the extent they were considered first basemen, McNamara added Evans as an outfielder and Brett sometime after Hrbek had already made clear that he wasn't interested.

 

Hrbek was having a great season: through the end of the first half, he hit .272/.367/.537, with 23 home runs (only six doubles, weirdly), 49 runs and 55 RBI. But McGwire was a no-brainer: on his way to a unanimous Rookie of the Year Award (and playing for the A's, who were 44-40 and only 3 games behind Minnesota, since this seems important to Hrbek), Big Mac ended the first half hitting .294/.383/.692, with an incredible 33 home runs, 59 runs scored and 68 knocked in. There was no way McGwire wasn't going to make the roster.

 

Tabler, though? That's a bit trickier. A 29-year-old career mostly-part-timer for Cleveland you've only heard of if you were really into baseball before the 1990s rolled around, Tabler was having a nice-enough season, batting .308/.368/.451 with 24 doubles. Hrbek was pretty clearly better--even in an age when batting average was valued much more highly than it is now, all else being close enough, managers would generally have preferred a first baseman with 23 homers to one with just seven.

 

The problem, though? Baseball's All-Star Game had, and retains today, the unfortunate rule that every team had to be represented by at least one player, and Cleveland was awful in 1987. They were 31-53 after July 9--21 games behind the East-leading Yankees--and ultimately lost 101. Tabler was their only representative. Yet, he wasn't their only worthy representative--the lineup also featured Joe Carter, who had 20 homers and 19 steals in 20 tries at the break (though he always struggled with getting on base, and his 803 OPS was just okay for a corner outfielder), and then-shortstop Julio Franco, who was hitting .315/.392/.435 with 22 steals and 59 runs (but was a terrible defensive shortstop). But Puckett and Evans, both much better than Carter, were the only outfield reserves McNamara named (it was assuredly a different time), and the reserve shortstops behind Cal Ripken were Tony Fernandez--the reigning and to-be Gold Glove winner at shortstop who was hitting .310/.380/.429 at the break--and Alan Trammell--a should-be Hall of Famer in the middle of a should-be MVP season. (Don't bother looking at Cleveland's pitchers for Tabler alternatives, either--the staff had a 5.59 ERA at the break, with no particular diamonds in the rough.)

 

So, should Hrbek have made it? Personally, with the benefit of a lot more statistical analysis and probably more idle time than McNamara had, I think I would have tried to find a way to get Franco on the team, without supplanting either of the other two reserve shortstops, and added Hrbek instead of Tabler. But that's asking him to spend a lot of time poring over a last-place team, and it's not even clear it's right. McNamara's choices were certainly justifiable, and even if he were to ditch Tabler for another first baseman, it's not totally clear it should have been Hrbek over Eddie Murray (.278/.342/.518, 20 HR, coming off six consecutive All-Star selections) or Wally Joyner (.277/.366/.526, 20 HR, an All-Star and near-Rookie of the Year the season before). Hrbek certainly had a right to feel that he deserved to be there, but it's hard to argue he was clearly wronged--and certainly, no more so than half a dozen guys in each league are every year when these types of hard decisions have to be made.

 

So what about the teammates Hrbek was so concerned about? The whole squad's offensive first half is here, and pitching here (huge thanks to the amazing Baseball-Reference Play Index for making this whole stupid exercise possible). And...it's hard to see much. Tom Brunansky was having a very nice first half, but so were a lot of other outfielders, and as I said, McNamara only took two--swapping out Puckett clearly wouldn't have addressed Hrbek's qualms (and wouldn't have made sense by the numbers), and Evans was third in the AL with a 1001 OPS. Gary Gaetti was having a nice season with 16 homers and was on his way to his second straight Gold Glove,, but his OPS was only around league average, while the only third base reserve selected, Kevin Seitzer, was hitting .305/.387/.419. You could argue for either of them over Brett or, say, Harold Baines -- who was hitting very well, but was almost exclusively a DH at a time when there was no DH at the Midsummer Classic -- but you could no doubt argue for a number of other guys in those spots, too, and you really can't say that either of the Twins clearly belonged.

 

The best pitcher--and probably the Twins' best case for a second representative at all--was Frank Viola, who had thrown 140 innings with a 2.96 ERA, which was great for that high-offense year. (You can look for yourself to see if there are any other pitching candidates, but I sure don't see any. Bert Blyleven had already surrendered 30 home runs, and closer Jeff Reardon sported a 5.32 ERA.) Here, I think, Hrbek would've had a pretty valid complaint: with the exception of game starter Brett Saberhagen, Viola was a better pick than every other All-Star. He had a lower ERA than, in a comparable number of innings to, Jack Morris (who Viola also beat in innings, strikeouts, and walks and homers allowed), Mark Langston, and Mike Witt. None of those, however, can be chalked up to a lack of respect or anti-Twins bias, but to win-loss bias: Viola's record at the break was just 8-6, while each of the other three had at least 11 wins.

 

But. But! There was one more AL All-Star starting pitcher that year: McNamara's own guy, Bruce Hurst. Hurst didn't even have a significant W-L advantage over Viola, as he was just 9-6 at the break, and in about the same number of innings, put up an ERA more than eight-tenths of a run higher than Viola's. There was just no legitimate way to justify Hurst over Viola--that's pure my-guyism. Except: another of McNamara's guys was Roger Clemens, the reigning MVP and Cy Young, who led Hurst in innings, strikeouts, and ERA, but who, like Viola, was 8-6. Maybe McNamara really just did love the win that much? Maybe he picked Hurst over two clearly superior pitchers, including one of his own, because he really thought that one extra win meant something. Which is crazy, but which still isn't a lack of respect for the Twins.

 

So...I don't know. The '87 Twins certainly could have had more than one All-Star, and Hrbek certainly could have been it (though Viola had an even better case). But it's hard to find evidence that it was a lack of respect for the Twins that kept the number at one--some lack of common sense, certainly, in the way of evaluating pitchers and relying on the silly "win" stat, but nothing managers weren't doing every year, and didn't keep doing more or less every year until at least this decade. At any rate, McNamara's my-guyism was nothing compared to the following year, when Twins manager Tom Kelly found a way to get five of his own guys on the team (and certainly would've taken Hrbek too, if he'd been receptive to it).

 

There's just, frankly, kind of disappointingly little here--this just isn't the kind of thing that would normally merit a "kiss my butt," even from such a...free spirit as Hrbek. Without the blowup, Hrbek certainly goes to the All-Star game in 1988 and again in '92 (since Kelly managed it again), and had strong cases in 1990 and '91 as well. For that matter, he may have been a last-minute replacement in '87--if indeed that's what Brett was--if he hadn't shot his mouth off first.

 

So, All-Star caliber player Kent Hrbek made some questionable statements about 29 years ago, and they kept him a one-time All-Star when he could've been at least a three-time, and probably a four- or five-time All-Star. There are greater tragedies in the world. And, hell, the second weekend or so in July is probably prime fishing season somewhere in the world, which may well have been his plan all along.

 

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[Blake]

I seem to recall Hrbek saying that "He wanted to remain a Twin and if that costs him a few bucks, so be it" when he signed a new contract with the Twins. 

 

It always seemed to me, and Hrbek may have even said it, that Kent Hrbek was going to play the game as long as it was fun and when it stopped being fun, he was done.

[Mr. Brooks]

Hrbek is my 3rd favorite Twin of all time, behind Kirby and Johan.

 

I realize that adds nothing to the specific topic, but I'm just sayin.

[diehardtwinsfan]

don't suppose he could be the Twins representative this year

[theBOMisthebomb]

I am old enough to remember this when it happened and Hrbek should have made it - no questions asked. Herbie was also a great (and underrated) fielder. My thoughts are that Hrbek going off like that was an old school motivation technique or an excuse to go fishing every year at All-star break time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Cool article, Bill.  I didn't know the Hrbek all-star story, and I love these kinds of exercises.

 

While first-half splits are a decent shortcut, they're not a good snapshot for when the rosters were actually decided.  They were announced on July 9, so only stats through July 8th were known at the time.  Not a huge deal, but it closes the ERA gap and widens the W-L gap between Viola and Hurst a little bit, for example.

 

Although actually, while rosters were announced July 9, they were probably put together in the preceding weeks, and here we can see a few more trends.  As of July 1st, Hurst actually had a better ERA than Viola, and a notably better W-L record too (9-5 vs 6-6).  And Viola's best performances were more recent, as his season ERA was still above 4.00 into early June, while Hurst's season ERA had been below 3.50 since April.  And past history is important too -- while Hurst being a Red Sox player was no small part of the equation, he also had a 2.99 ERA the previous year (1986), while Viola had a 4.51 mark, looking more like an innings eater that year and in 1985 than an all-star level performer.  Viola's most recent "all-star" level performance was way back in 1984.

 

Similar trends can be seen looking at Hrbek vs. Tabler.  Tabler actually batted .326 in 1986, 4th in the league, and in 1987 he was at in that range again through mid-June, before dropping to .308 at the break.  At the beginning of June, it appears Tabler was basically neck-and-neck with superstars Boggs, Puckett, and Trammel for the AL batting average lead.  Meanwhile, Hrbek's 1987 season average dipped as low as the .220s in mid-May, and even as late as June 18th Tabler had a higher season OPS than Hrbek.  After that, Hrbek had 9 HR over 15 games, but I suspect the decision to favor Tabler was already largely made.  Also, I wouldn't underestimate the importance put on batting average in 1987.

 

And I think some of Hrbek's complaint is because he wasn't looking at this own numbers in the context of the lively ball that year.  23 HR at the break would have led the entire MLB in every other year of Hrbek's career to that point, but in 1987 it was only good for 3rd place in the AL, and 7th in MLB, with a ton of ~20 HR guys right behind him.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, while B-Ref is fantastic, I find that Fangraphs is pretty sweet for viewing splits like this for the whole league.

 

For a modern metric view, note that Hrbek was only 4th in AL among 1B in first half wRC+ in 1987 (setting aside Dwight Evans, who accumulated most of his 1B time in the second half that year):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=1987&month=30&season1=1987&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

 

5th in oWAR.  2nd in HR, but only 3rd in ISO and SLG, 7th in RBI, 10th in AVG, etc.

 

Joe Carter was actually primarily a 1B that year too, and he had 20 HR and 67 RBI at the break.

[Bill Parker]

spycake- thanks so much. Great additions. I didn't really have time to look that specifically at each case given the scope of this (and I couldn't find info on exactly which day the rosters were announced), but that really puts some of these, especially Viola-Hurst, in better perspective.

 

Definitely agree with thebomisthebomb's last suggestion above--seems most likely to me that this was, more than anything else, a way for Hrbie to make sure he had a nice little stretch every summer for huntin' and fishin'...

[MikeBates]

I certainly won't argue that Pat Tabler deserved an All Star spot over Hrbek, because Herbie was great, beloved, and just better overall than Tabler. However, if I'm putting myself in McNamara's shoes, I'm probably also thinking about Tabler's performance in 1986, when he hit .326 and finished 4th in the AL batting race. In a batting average-driven age, I have little doubt that McNamara thought highly of Tabler's talents.

 

That said, Carter was also fantastic in 1986 (.302/.335/.526, 29 homers, leading the AL with 121 RBI), so I really don't understand how he gets left off in favor of Tabler. Especially since he spent so much time at 1B in '87, and with Brett, Evans, and even Seitzer able to play there as well. It's not like they were shorthanded at the position.

 

So, to sum up: Yes, Hrbek would have been a better choice than Tabler, but it's easy to see what McNamara was trying to do even if he was misguided.

[nicksaviking]

Here is my recollection of how accomplishments were ranked in the 1980s:

 

Batters:

 

1: Having an All-Star Card last year

2: Batting Average

3: Having All-Star Cards in previous years

4: HR

5: Multiple Gold Gloves

6: RBIs

7: Game winning RBIs

Wild Card: Your manager is picking the roster and likes you (not specific to the 1980s).

 

Pitchers:

1: Wins

 

I also remember that even while previous generations cheered Home Run races ever since Babe Ruth stepped to the plate, HRs in the 1980s were almost considered crass. It almost seemed like HRs were fine, but mostly only to entertain the kids who didn't appreciate the finer aspects of the game. Probably not coincidentally, it took Harmon Killebrew half a decade to get into the HOF in the 1980s.

 

[ThejacKmp]

This article made me go look at Hrbek on Baseball Reference where I saw he was 2nd in the MVP race in 1984. What a weird year for the AL. The first and third place guys were closers who saved 32 and 44 games. Willie Hernandez seems to have won it because Detroit won 104 games (though Kirk Gibson would likely have been a better choice if that was your criteria - Hernandez only saved 32 games and had a K rate under 1 per inning). Quisenberry finished third even though his K/9 was an anemic 2.9 (2.9!!!!!) - likely because his Royals won their division with 84 wins and there doesn't seem to be a better representative.

 

Hrbek is an okay choice for second but you could make similar arguments for Murray (#4), Mattingly (#5) or Winfield (#8). All three of those guys played for above . 500 teams so there's nothing too amazing for Hrbek, whose Twins finished .500. Perhaps the fact that the AL East race as a romp while the mediocre AL West was close mattered?

 

Perhaps the weirdest thing is that while Cal Ripken hit the same number of HRs as Hrbek, played every game (duh) vs Hrbek's 149 and had a .884 OPS versus a .906 OPS while playing SS versus 1B, he finished 27th in the MVP voting, showing up on only one ballot. His Orioles had a better record than the Twins and though he finished 20 RBI behind Hrbek, he also scored 20 more runs so it doesn't seem like counting stats would be that big of a deal. Ripkin had a WAR 2 points higher than the next player receiving votes.

 

I know MVP wasn't based on modern stats but you would think that Ripkin would do better hitting .304 with 27 home runs, playing 162 games, scoring over 100 runs and driving in 86 runs for a team over .500.

 

Super weird MVP race.

[jimmer]

It's hard to believe he was 2nd in MVP voting in '84.  Ripken, Murray, Trammell, Mattingly, Boggs and Rickey Henderson.  I'd have them all in front of Hrbek that year.

Edited June 23, 2016 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That said, Carter was also fantastic in 1986 (.302/.335/.526, 29 homers, leading the AL with 121 RBI), so I really don't understand how he gets left off in favor of Tabler. Especially since he spent so much time at 1B in '87, and with Brett, Evans, and even Seitzer able to play there as well. It's not like they were shorthanded at the position.

You also have to remember, top baseball minds gave Palmeiro a gold glove when he only played 28 games in the field, and that was as recently as 1999.  I would guess that 12 years earlier, in 1987, when they were considering their all-star roster, they still viewed Carter as an outfielder (indeed, he was never a primary first basemen before or after that year).

 

Also, while Carter had the success of 1986, plus 20 HR and more RBIs than Hrbek at the break in 1987, Carter's batting average, like Hrbek's, was especially low for much of that first half, still under .240 just days before the all-star rosters were announced.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As for 1984, Willie Hernandez winning both the MVP and Cy Young is almost by definition the weirdest award season ever, regardless of what happened further down the ballot!

[puckstopper1]

 

don't suppose he could be the Twins representative this year

 

Agreed! 

 

BTW - who should and will be the Twins rep?  Does Joe get the invite based on his past experience?

[Bill Parker]

 

Agreed! 

 

BTW - who should and will be the Twins rep?  Does Joe get the invite based on his past experience?

 

I'm not totally convinced he shouldn't get the invite based on his *current* experience--he's 3rd to Cabrera and Davis in bWAR among AL first basemen (and very close to Davis), though it requires way more faith in their defensive metrics than I have to believe he's been better than Hosmer. Fangraphs also has him third, albeit with more distance from him to Davis, and is even harder on Hosmer's glove. With the size of the modern All-Star rosters, I think it'd be perfectly defensible to take all four.

 

Otherwise, Eduardo Nunez is pretty much your only other option, and that's likely to look Coomer-level silly by the end of 2016. I suppose Yost could decide he really just wants a lefty and take Abad, but that would be at least as silly...

[nicksaviking]

 

As for 1984, Willie Hernandez winning both the MVP and Cy Young is almost by definition the weirdest award season ever, regardless of what happened further down the ballot!

 

Yup, both Hrbek and Puckett got their MVPs sniped by relief pitchers.

 

Which is partly why I laugh that Justin Morneau got the one that Yankees fans indignantly thought Derek Jeter should have gotten. Even if Jeter was better than Morneau that year (which is debatable) he wasn't better than Mauer and Santana.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Agreed! 

 

BTW - who should and will be the Twins rep?  Does Joe get the invite based on his past experience?

 

He should go based on his 2016 season so far (especially relative to other AL 1B)... plus his history.

[pogofan]

I'm guessing that the reason McNamara didn't pick Roger Clemens is the timing of the Red Sox's rotation.  Clemens pitched on Saturday the 11th (9 innings, as it happened, though of course McNamara didn't know that when rosters were announced on the 9th) and then again on Thursday the 16th.  In contrast, Hurst's starts before and after were Thursday the 9th and  Saturday the 18th.

 

Viola also pitched on Saturday the 11th; maybe Kelly asked McNamara not to use him?  Or McNamara just looked at the schedule and saw that Viola's turn was coming up on the 11th and figured he wouldn't be fresh for the ASG?

[spinowner]

This discussion is a reminder that I dislike the All-Star Game because it is not an All-Star Game. Here are some changes that might, repeat, might make this curmudgeon interested:

 

1. 25-player roster: two players for each of the 9 positions, seven pitchers. No one-player-from-each-team rule.

2. Players are chosen by a predetermined statistical formula based on performance in all games in the current season up to and including the Sunday before the game. The player with the best formula rating at each position starts. The second place player is the reserve. Players who have played multiple positions are considered only for the position at which they played in the most games. No fan voting. No player voting. No media voting. No manager selections.

3. The manager has no constraints on in-game substitutions. He chooses the starting pitcher.

4. Pitchers who start a game on the Saturday or Sunday before the game are ineligible but those who would have been chosen otherwise receive bonuses as below.

5. Players selected are required to play unless on the DL. Those on the DL receive bonuses as below.

6. 11-inning maximum. The game is declared a tie if the score is tied at that point. (It is an exhibition game, after all.)

7. All players selected receive a predetermined bonus. No additional appearance bonuses in individual contracts. The players on the winning team receive a larger bonus than players on the losing team. In the event of a tie all bonuses are the same.

8. Home field advantage for the WS is given to the league with the better record in interleague games. In the event of a tie the ASG is the tiebreaker. If there is still a tie a coin flip is the tiebreaker.

 

(To be edited if I think of anything else later.)