Article: Teaching Patience (At The Plate)

[SwainZag]

 

Strikeouts don't exactly equal lack of plate discipline and walks don't exactly equal selectivity. As was stated above, the key for a Rosario is to stay in the hittable zone and not chase pitches. It will get him to more favorable counts and get him more good pitches to hit. It is nice to draw an occasional walk, but far more important to get good pitches to hit.

 

This is a great statement.  Working a count for a guy like Rosario could mean the difference of striking out on a ball over your head on a 1-2 count, or being selective and getting a ball in the strike zone to drive to the outfield on a 3-2 count.

[tobi0040]

This is a great statement.  Working a count for a guy like Rosario could mean the difference of striking out on a ball over your head on a 1-2 count, or being selective and getting a ball in the strike zone to drive to the outfield on a 3-2 count.

This is true, but BB rate is a solid data point. I would guess BB rates and percentage of swings outside the zone are highly correlated (inversely)

 

Rosario walked 3% of the time last year. 2.5% this year and now 4.1% in AAA. Those are extremely low

Edited June 21, 2016 by tobi0040

[SwainZag]

 

This is true, but BB rate is a solid data point. I would guess BB rates and percentage of swings outside the zone are highly correlated (inversely)

Rosario walked 3% of the time last year. 2.5% this year and now 4.1% in AAA. Those are extremely low

 

Oh I completely agree with you.  More walks would be great but watching Rosario hit, there are so many near unhittable pitches he waves at or barely gets a bat on to pop up or slowly ground out.  For a free swinger like him being more selective at the plate, especially early in the count, would seemingly work a lot better than strictly wanting him to take more walks.  

 

I've never deeply looked into swing rates outside the zone, but I imagine Rosario's chart would not be pretty.

[wsnydes]

 

I agree.  Here's the big question.  Does that mean you send Buxton back to AAA to work on his pitch recognition? Rosario is playing well, and either he or Kepler could play CF. 

I really don't want to keep shuttling Buxton back and forth.  He historically struggles a bit at each level before taking off.  He had a good spurt after being brought back up, I'd like to see if he can start trending upwards again in the next couple of weeks.  That also gives Rosario more time to rake in AAA, which I'd prefer.  That time would also give you more time to look at Grossman, who appears to be cooling off.  If in a couple of weeks he hasn't corrected, you send Buxton back down and bring Rosario up.  I wouldn't mind seeing Kepler in CF a bit, but I'd have to see what Grossman is doing before settling on who plays where.  That is a good question and I think the Twins are in a pretty good position there.  They have options and they all involve youth.

[tobi0040]

Oh I completely agree with you.  More walks would be great but watching Rosario hit, there are so many near unhittable pitches he waves at or barely gets a bat on to pop up or slowly ground out.  For a free swinger like him being more selective at the plate, especially early in the count, would seemingly work a lot better than strictly wanting him to take more walks.  

 

I've never deeply looked into swing rates outside the zone, but I imagine Rosario's chart would not be pretty.

Yeah. I remember a game this year where he swung at a ball neck high a foot outside. Smalley said "He is simply never going to get a good pitch to hit after swinging at a ball like that"

[jimmer]

 

Yeah. That is kind of where we are at. Very few teams in this league have an inherent advantage over us, yet they are all basically winning many more games. There comes a point that trying is not good enough. Sometimes you are just in over your head.

Whether or not it's the players, team philosophy or player development (or likely a combo of all three) I think a lot of teams have much more talented rosters than us.  It's a poorly constructed roster TR has put together which is low on MLB talent/MLB ready talent.  I'm pretty sure we don't have one player who would be on an all AL Central team.  Definitely not one that would start.  That's horrible.  )

Edited June 21, 2016 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

Whether or not it's the players, team philosophy or player development (or likely a combo of all three) I think a lot of teams have much more talented rosters than us. It's a poorly constructed roster TR has put together which is low on MLB talent/MLB ready talent. I'm pretty sure we don't have one player who would be on an all AL Central team. Definitely not one that would start. That's horrible. )

That is an interesting way to look at it. I would probably take Sano at 3b but folks in Detroit and Chicago may disagree.

 

Even more discouraging would be to see how many positions we rank 4th and 5th.

[jimmer]

 

That is an interesting way to look at it. I would probably take Sano at 3b but folks in Detroit and Chicago may disagree.

Even more discouraging would be to see how many positions we rank 4th and 5th.

He hasn't played enough 3B at the MLB level to really consider him for the spot.  Perhaps down the line, yeah.

 

And yeah, looking at how many spots we'd be 3rd or 5th would be sad.

[GMinTraining]

 

I brought up Walker because the article listed a bunch of players and he wasn't listed. And because he was a very clear example of someone who was promoted before he had the tools to be able to succeed in the big leagues.

The odd thing is the Twins have been extremely hesitant to promote pitchers who walk guys. But have been very willing to promote hitters who don't take walks. One would think a pitcher that walks 20 more batters is the same as a hitter who takes 20 fewer. But my head is sore from all the scratching, I just don't bother anymore.

Walker does Walk about 40 to 50 times a year.  That isn't his problem.  His contact rate is what fails him.  Most of the time I hear scouts say "too much movement in their load, while trying to swing" as a cause for poor contact hitters (not quiet).  Maybe that is the case with some of our hitters.  Can't see the ball if your moving too much while you're swinging.  Staying quiet is the biggest key to pitch recognition - IMO.  It can't be that all our guys just can't recognize pitches.

 

Here is my problem with AAA as a building block for the MLB.  The Rochester rotation has 3 of the 5 starters who throw 88 to 90 tops on their fastball.  Our guys learn to adjust to the junk throwing pitchers and then have to go to the MLB where they throw 95+ with junk.  That adjustment s a whole different story.  AAA doesn't prepare you for that.  AT ALL.  Maybe against that stud  (#1) pitcher in every teams rotation.  Guys like Kepler and Buxton need to take their lumps in the MLB as well if they plan to understand MLB adjustments.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I brought up Walker because the article listed a bunch of players and he wasn't listed. And because he was a very clear example of someone who was promoted before he had the tools to be able to succeed in the big leagues.

The odd thing is the Twins have been extremely hesitant to promote pitchers who walk guys. But have been very willing to promote hitters who don't take walks. One would think a pitcher that walks 20 more batters is the same as a hitter who takes 20 fewer. But my head is sore from all the scratching, I just don't bother anymore.

 

I won't argue the org's double standard with pitchers and hitters, based on the evidence, I think that's deserved.

 

I was simply pointing out that there's some pretty unreasonable expectations around here that are placed on management when it comes to prospects, especially when you consider that teams are pretty happy with a draft class that produces 3 major leaguers.  Walker really shouldn't be a data point here (not yet at least).  He was a risky proposition to begin with, and ironically, he's the guy that they have quite intentionally took it slow with. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Walker does Walk about 40 to 50 times a year.  That isn't his problem.  His contact rate is what fails him.  Most of the time I hear scouts say "too much movement in their load, while trying to swing" as a cause for poor contact hitters (not quiet).  Maybe that is the case with some of our hitters.  Can't see the ball if your moving too much while you're swinging.  Staying quiet is the biggest key to pitch recognition - IMO.  It can't be that all our guys just can't recognize pitches.

 

Here is my problem with AAA as a building block for the MLB.  The Rochester rotation has 3 of the 5 starters who throw 88 to 90 tops on their fastball.  Our guys learn to adjust to the junk throwing pitchers and then have to go to the MLB where they throw 95+ with junk.  That adjustment s a whole different story.  AAA doesn't prepare you for that.  AT ALL.  Maybe against that stud  (#1) pitcher in every teams rotation.  Guys like Kepler and Buxton need to take their lumps in the MLB as well if they plan to understand MLB adjustments.  

 

I think the idea that AAA doesn't prepare you for 95+ pitches is an odd one (side note, junk pitches are rarely in the 90s as they are off speed pitches).  Sure, you won't see very many major league curve balls in AAA, but you'll see more of them there than you will in AA, A+, and A ball.  I don't think anyone disagrees that major league pitching is better, but looking at Buxton and Kepler, I don't think it's an accident that the prospect who spent more time in the high minors is having more success right now in the majors. 

 

That's my biggest beef with the Twins handling Buxton.  He got added to the 40 man before he was ready, and they've now burned 2 options.   He's still rather clearly not ready and next year is his last option (which at this point I suspect they will need).  I get sick and tired of hearing how Buxton isn't Hicks or Buxton isn't Arcia, but it is that same type of mismanagement that put the team in the position to have to deal with Hicks and Arcia in the manner that they did.  Buxton needs to return to AAA and get those at bats, and he needs to do it sooner than later.  In 2018, there will be no option to yo-yo him. 

[wsnydes]

 

I think the idea that AAA doesn't prepare you for 95+ pitches is an odd one (side note, junk pitches are rarely in the 90s as they are off speed pitches).  Sure, you won't see very many major league curve balls in AAA, but you'll see more of them there than you will in AA, A+, and A ball.  I don't think anyone disagrees that major league pitching is better, but looking at Buxton and Kepler, I don't think it's an accident that the prospect who spent more time in the high minors is having more success right now in the majors. 

 

That's my biggest beef with the Twins handling Buxton.  He got added to the 40 man before he was ready, and they've now burned 2 options.   He's still rather clearly not ready and next year is his last option (which at this point I suspect they will need).  I get sick and tired of hearing how Buxton isn't Hicks or Buxton isn't Arcia, but it is that same type of mismanagement that put the team in the position to have to deal with Hicks and Arcia in the manner that they did.  Buxton needs to return to AAA and get those at bats, and he needs to do it sooner than later.  In 2018, there will be no option to yo-yo him. 

This.  So much this.  It makes no sense to hold guys in the low minors and then catapult them through the high minors to the majors.  That's part of the reason these guys are so raw.  They are things that they won't learn how to deal with until they see better pitching.  Some guys can adjust just fine going from AA to the majors, some can't.  That isn't a knock, it's just human reality.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's my biggest beef with the Twins handling Buxton.  He got added to the 40 man before he was ready, and they've now burned 2 options.   He's still rather clearly not ready and next year is his last option (which at this point I suspect they will need).  I get sick and tired of hearing how Buxton isn't Hicks or Buxton isn't Arcia, but it is that same type of mismanagement that put the team in the position to have to deal with Hicks and Arcia in the manner that they did.  Buxton needs to return to AAA and get those at bats, and he needs to do it sooner than later.  In 2018, there will be no option to yo-yo him. 

Actually, Buxton didn't use an option last year.  He only spent 10 days on optional assignment in August.  Less than 20 days on optional assignment in a season doesn't use an option year:

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3521

[d-mac]

 

I really don't want to keep shuttling Buxton back and forth.  He historically struggles a bit at each level before taking off.  He had a good spurt after being brought back up, I'd like to see if he can start trending upwards again in the next couple of weeks.  That also gives Rosario more time to rake in AAA, which I'd prefer.  That time would also give you more time to look at Grossman, who appears to be cooling off.  If in a couple of weeks he hasn't corrected, you send Buxton back down and bring Rosario up.  I wouldn't mind seeing Kepler in CF a bit, but I'd have to see what Grossman is doing before settling on who plays where.  That is a good question and I think the Twins are in a pretty good position there.  They have options and they all involve youth.

 

I posted this on the minor league thread today: 

 

Unfortunately, I and few others called out the promotion for being way too early. Since June 7th (13G, 48 PA) Buxton has hit .093/.149/.209 and struck out in 43.8% of his plate appearances.

 

Food for thought.

[wsnydes]

 

I posted this on the minor league thread today: 

 

Unfortunately, I and few others called out the promotion for being way too early. Since June 7th (13G, 48 PA) Buxton has hit .093/.149/.209 and struck out in 43.8% of his plate appearances.

 

Food for thought.

Weren't they essentially forced to promote him due to Santana's injury?  That left no CF on the active roster.  I'm guessing they they would have preferred to leave him down there a bit longer.

[d-mac]

 

Weren't they essentially forced to promote him due to Santana's injury?  That left no CF on the active roster.  I'm guessing they they would have preferred to leave him down there a bit longer.

 

Well, who's fault is it that they didn't have any other options, or that he's not back in AAA already? At this point they are doing detrimental damage to his career. 

[wsnydes]

 

Well, who's fault is it that they didn't have any other options, or that he's not back in AAA already? At this point they are doing detrimental damage to his career. 

I'm all for ripping the FO, but I'm not sure what their other options were.  Reasons like this are why the farm system exists in the first place.  Kepler could have been brought up, but he wasn't even hitting as well as Buxton at the time.  Rosario wasn't in a position to be called back up.  Grossman isn't a CF, that's why Santana is still on the roster (all jokes aside).  What do you suggest they have done?

 

I don't really think they're doing detrimental damage to his career.  I think that's a reach at this point.  If struggling like this hurts his career, he's not the elite prospect everyone makes him out to be.

 

I would have preferred he stay in AAA longer as well, but sometimes things don't work out the way you want them to.  It's just reality.

Edited June 22, 2016 by wsnydes

[old nurse]

I would imagine that it is really hard to teach patience when you are having decent success from the contact you make with the ball. When it doesn't work anymore, then there is a better chance for listening. I would also imagine that the minor league pitchers  with the command to intentionally be just outside the zone are fewer and far between.

[wsnydes]

 

It's time for Buxton to go back down. He's falling back into the same bad habits he that forced his first trip back to AAA.  I don't profess to be an expert but you watch Buxton and Kepler hit and you can see the difference. Kepler seems to have a plan, can work a walk and tends to take a more professional at bat. He needs work and experience, but the foundation is there. Buxton seems a half second slow on pitch recognition so each at bat seems the same - he takes a strike on a hittable pitch, he fouls off pitches that he could hit, gets two strikes, and chases a down and away breaking pitch.  He doesn't have the foundation yet. Neither does Park, by the way.  I don't think either of them will learn that foundation in the majors, at least not yet, and could benefit from a month or so in AAA.  Send them down and bring back Rosario and play him every day in CF if you have to (DO NOT PLAY SANTANA) and either Polanco (but only if you'll start him 5 times a week) or Vargas (if you only wnat a part time DH/bench bat).  

Buxton seems to be "okay" when he's ahead in the count.  That helps him eliminate a pitchers options.  I definitely agree that Kepler is ahead of Buxton in the hitting department.  That is the extra time in the minors showing up.  Buxton should be sent back down, bring up Rosario and have Kepler and Rosario split time in CF.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm all for ripping the FO, but I'm not sure what their other options were.  Reasons like this are why the farm system exists in the first place.  Kepler could have been brought up, but he wasn't even hitting as well as Buxton at the time.  Rosario wasn't in a position to be called back up.  Grossman isn't a CF, that's why Santana is still on the roster (all jokes aside).  What do you suggest they have done?

Kepler had a rapidly improving 133 wRC+ at AAA, with a 10.9% K rate, and wasn't a month removed from a staggering 50% MLB K rate like Buxton.  He was most definitely a plausible candidate for promotion.

 

Even if you wanted to keep Kepler on the farm longer, while Grossman isn't a CF, he is more than qualified to play CF for a few weeks on an MLB team with a .300 winning percentage.  Given the bodies we've run out there over the past few years, I'm not sure why we'd suddenly adhere to stricter standards at the position in June 2016 to the point of jerking around an elite young prospect.  (And benching and subsequently cutting Arcia too.)

Edited June 22, 2016 by spycake

[stringer bell]

Don't necessarily agree with this, but if Buxton were returned to Rochester, I'm pretty sure that Danny Santana would get the bulk of the playing time as the center fielder.

[jorgenswest]

Buxton struggles with plate discipline in the majors and then dominates AAA in 129 PAs. He returns to the majors and struggles with plate discipline. Maybe it wasn't enough time in AAA.

 

Solution - call up Rosario and his 126 PAs dominating AAA.

[Mike Sixel]

Which of these is a natural talent, vs a skill that can really be taught/improved on?

 

Pitch recognition

Patience

Ability to hit to the opposite field (or pull it) as dictated by location

 

I really don't know. Are there examples of guys striking out this much, then becoming good? 

[wsnydes]

 

Which of these is a natural talent, vs a skill that can really be taught/improved on?

 

Pitch recognition

Patience

Ability to hit to the opposite field (or pull it) as dictated by location

 

I really don't know. Are there examples of guys striking out this much, then becoming good? 

I don't see why any of those couldn't be both.  I was taught how to go with a pitch before I even got to high school.  By the time I graduated, it was automatic.

 

Good question on the Ks and becoming good.  I'd be interesting in that answer as well.

[70charger]

 

This.  So much this.  It makes no sense to hold guys in the low minors and then catapult them through the high minors to the majors.  That's part of the reason these guys are so raw.  They are things that they won't learn how to deal with until they see better pitching.  Some guys can adjust just fine going from AA to the majors, some can't.  That isn't a knock, it's just human reality.

I keep seeing this over and over in the last month or so. Is this real, or is this just one of those memes without any statistical truth that get repeated because the narrative sounds good? (Remember the whole Twins' trainers are causing Tommy Johns thing a few years back?)

 

I'm naturally skeptical, but if someone has done real research on the following points, I'd like to see it:

1. Does the time spent in the high minors versus the low minors correlate well with major league success? I'm okay with tossing out outliers, and with separating pitchers and hitters.
2. Do the Twins have any tendency greater or less than the major league norm to keep their players at certain levels - or simply high minors vs. low minors - for longer?
3. Are the results any different when you filter for top prospects? I would expect that the players who make it to the major leagues despite being drafted outside of the first couple rounds are more likely to benefit more from more minors time, and vice versa. Does comparing Buxton's time in the high minors to Dozier's make any sense at all?
4. Are the results different when you separate college and high school players? If this sentiment is true, would it be a better strategy to start college players at higher levels and then let them catch up, versus starting them lower and waiting until they dominate?

I'm really most interested in #1 and #2. And I want statistics, not memes. Is this something that's real, or is it something we're all attaching ourselves to recently because it sounds good and fits the Buxton profile?

 

Should this be a separate topic?

[wsnydes]

 

I keep seeing this over and over in the last month or so. Is this real, or is this just one of those memes without any statistical truth that get repeated because the narrative sounds good? (Remember the whole Twins' trainers are causing Tommy Johns thing a few years back?)

 

I'm naturally skeptical, but if someone has done real research on the following points, I'd like to see it:

1. Does the time spent in the high minors versus the low minors correlate well with major league success? I'm okay with tossing out outliers, and with separating pitchers and hitters.
2. Do the Twins have any tendency greater or less than the major league norm to keep their players at certain levels - or simply high minors vs. low minors - for longer?
3. Are the results any different when you filter for top prospects? I would expect that the players who make it to the major leagues despite being drafted outside of the first couple rounds are more likely to benefit more from more minors time, and vice versa. Does comparing Buxton's time in the high minors to Dozier's make any sense at all?
4. Are the results different when you separate college and high school players? If this sentiment is true, would it be a better strategy to start college players at higher levels and then let them catch up, versus starting them lower and waiting until they dominate?

I'm really most interested in #1 and #2. And I want statistics, not memes. Is this something that's real, or is it something we're all attaching ourselves to recently because it sounds good and fits the Buxton profile?

 

Should this be a separate topic?

Looking at the Cubs quickly, all of their top prospects that have been called up in the last few years have all been called up from AAA.  Bryant had 330 ABs at AAA.  Rizzo had 350 before the Padres called him up and then another 250 after he was traded to the Cubs.  The Cardinals operate similarly, see Randal Grichuk.  Buxton and Sano both skipped AAA completely before being called up, IIRC.

 

These are quick snapshots of the first names that came to mind, I don't have the time right now to dig into it deeper.

Edited June 22, 2016 by wsnydes

[Willihammer]

Is it fair to expect a player like Rosario who is ultra-aggressive to become more patient? Is that even a realistic request? How would an organization even go about trying to make that happen?

 

It isn’t as simple as saying, “Eddie, take two strikes every plate appearance. Get used to what is called a strike and what isn’t.”

 

To some degree, a hitter is what he is by the time he reaches age 23 or 24.

 

When I was in Cedar Rapids, I asked Kernels manager Jake Mauer about how to help these types of aggressive hitters. He went back to our youth for a reminder.

 

“You know, (Kirby) Puckett was a ‘bad-ball hitter,’ and I think Puckett knew himself. He knew which balls he could drive. If you’ve got a guy that ‘swings at everything,’ you don’t want to tell him to take, but I think they need to learn what they can drive.”

I think it is fair to have high expectations of Rosario. Any idiot can take a pitch, its not a skill. But players need to understand why its important to work deep counts, and it doesn't look like many of them do. Maybe coaches could do more in that regard.

 

The league bats 1.796 in 3-0 counts, and 1.366 in 3-1, .976 in 2-0. If I were Jake Mauer, I'd move the goalposts away from "drive the ball" to "get to those counts." The aggressiveness will take over from there, it doesn't need encouragement, and the walks will follow incidentally, as they should.

 

Pair that with an emphasis on 2-strike hitting in order to keep strikeouts in check.

[diehardtwinsfan]

they had no choice but to promote when Santana got hurt (though in my opinion, I'd have no problem rolling Arcia out in CF for the time being for no other reason than to get him bats, not like an extra loss would cost this team a playoff spot or something)... that said, why Buxton is till up is beyond me.  He was decent for a week or two and has fallen back on old ways.

[tobi0040]

they had no choice but to promote when Santana got hurt (though in my opinion, I'd have no problem rolling Arcia out in CF for the time being for no other reason than to get him bats, not like an extra loss would cost this team a playoff spot or something)... that said, why Buxton is till up is beyond me.  He was decent for a week or two and has fallen back on old ways.

I would leave Buxton up here. He looked completely hopeless the first go round. Then he went down and proved he can rip up AAA. He has looked better (although the bar was very low). Not like a starting CF in this league but to me he has shown signs of clicking. Yesterday was a really good game. 1-3 with a BB. He drove that one ball to RF and most RF don’t get to that. He swiped a bag and made two very nice plays in CF. The season is lost. I would leave him up here so long as the k rate stays below 35%, then 30%, and so on.

 

First stint: 49 PA. .156/.208/.289/.497 49% k rate. wRC+ of 28.

 

Second stint 76 PA .217/.253/.362/.616 36% k rate. wRC+ of 58.

 

Given his speed on the bases and defense, I think he can be a value add player even with a .650 OPS in CF. His second stint is not that far from that. I think he would be a disappointment with that OPS but the reality is I think his development is best up here.

 

The bigger issue I have is why the heck is Buxton still batting 9th? I put him 1st. I don’t care about the OBP. There should be no higher priority than getting him MLB at bats. I will take 4-5 per game over 3-4 all season long.

Edited June 23, 2016 by tobi0040

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I would leave Buxton up here. He looked completely hopeless the first go round. Then he went down and proved he can rip up AAA. He has looked better (although the bar was very low). Not like a starting CF in this league but to me he has shown signs of clicking. Yesterday was a really good game. 1-3 with a BB. He drove that one ball to RF and most RF don’t get to that. He swiped a bag and made two very nice plays in CF. The season is lost. I would leave him up here so long as the k rate stays below 35%, then 30%, and so on.

First stint: 49 PA. .156/.208/.289/.497 49% k rate. wRC+ of 28.

Second stint 76 PA .217/.253/.362/.616 36% k rate. wRC+ of 58.

Given his speed on the bases and defense, I think he can be a value add player even with a .650 OPS in CF. His second stint is not that far from that. I think he would be a disappointment with that OPS but the reality is I think his development is best up here.

The bigger issue I have is why the heck is Buxton still batting 9th? I put him 1st. I don’t care about the OBP. There should be no higher priority than getting him MLB at bats. I will take 4-5 per game over 3-4 all season long.

 

I'm sorry, those second stint numbers don't show me he's ready.  That K rate is way too high and the slash line is, to put it mildly, ugly.  He's still not walking where he should either.  Others have pointed out that he's having issues recognizing breaking pitches, and I'd add that the few weeks in AAA that he had hardly proves anything.  He needs to establish good habits, and I don't think those habits get established in MLB nearly as easily as they do in AAA, and his problem goes beyond recognizing an AAA breaking ball vs. an MLB breaking ball.  It's that he has trouble with both. 

 

There's something to be said about learning how to play in lower pressure environments, and Buxton is going to be dealing with a very real options problem in the not so distant future.  They've already burned that option this year, so they may as well make use of it.  I'm glad he's doing a bit better during his second stint, but when a bit better is still well below league average... well let's just say let him keep working on his game in Rochester.  He might be the best CF on this team right now (which is another issue for another day), but if they want him to realize his potential as an all star CF sooner than later, it is probably in his best interest to be doing that in Rochester.