Article: Teaching Patience (At The Plate)

[Seth Stohs]

I think we all would agree that creating cookie-cutter hitters isn’t a good philosophy for hitting. Just as people are all different, it is OK to have different philosophies on hitter. That being said, understanding and having control of the strike zone is something that is (or at least would be) beneficial to all hitters.

 

In baseball history, there have been plenty of good, bad-ball hitters. However, in general, they are the exceptions to the rule. More often, hitters who know the strike zone swing mostly at strikes and don't expand the strike zone too much have a much better likelihood of long-term success.In recent years, there are plenty of examples of players who have been unable to control the strike zone. After fast starts, they fell victim to several sophomore slumps.

• In 2013, Oswaldo Arcia walked 23 times and struck out 117 times in 378 plate appearances.
• In 2014, Oswaldo Arcia walked 31 times and struck out 127 times in 410 plate appearances.
• In 2014, Danny Santana walked 19 times and struck out 98 times in 430 plate appearances.
• In 2014, Kennys Vargas walked 12 times and struck out 63 times in 234 plate appearances.

Those are all certainly not good, but there were some real impressive (or unimpressive) strikeout-to-walk ratios in 2015.

• Danny Santana - 6 walks, 68 strikeouts, 277 plate appearances.
• Kennys Vargas - 9 walks, 54 strikeouts, 184 plate appearances.
• Eddie Rosario - 15 walks, 118 strikeouts, 474 plate appearances.
• Byron Buxton - 6 walks, 44 strikeouts, 138 plate appearances.

Byron Buxton is currently at four walks and 49 strikeouts in 116 plate appearances in 2016 with the Twins.

 

In his time with the Twins at the start of the 2016 season, Eddie Rosario walked just three times and struck out 31 times in 121 plate appearances. Rosario was sent to Rochester on May 18th. In his first 19 games with the Red Wings, he struck out 12 times and did not walk. At all. He was hitting .321 despite a slow start, but in this situation, control of the strike zone had to be part of the evaluation. Continuing the trend of swinging erratically at everything just wasn’t going to cut it.

 

In his last nine games, Rosario has five walks and four strikeouts in 40 plate appearance. It is a small sample size of course, but it is a sign of improvement, and to me, that’s all we should expect.

 

Eddie Rosario is never going to be Joe Mauer, but then again, very few are. Consider that in Mauer’s first nine MLB seasons, he walked 555 times and struck out just 475 times. While that trend changed over the past three seasons (188 BB, 297 K), he still had over 60 walks in each season. In 2016, he is on pace for over 80 walks again.

 

Is it fair to expect a player like Rosario who is ultra-aggressive to become more patient? Is that even a realistic request? How would an organization even go about trying to make that happen?

 

It isn’t as simple as saying, “Eddie, take two strikes every plate appearance. Get used to what is called a strike and what isn’t.”

 

To some degree, a hitter is what he is by the time he reaches age 23 or 24.

 

When I was in Cedar Rapids, I asked Kernels manager Jake Mauer about how to help these types of aggressive hitters. He went back to our youth for a reminder.

 

“You know, (Kirby) Puckett was a ‘bad-ball hitter,’ and I think Puckett knew himself. He knew which balls he could drive. If you’ve got a guy that ‘swings at everything,’ you don’t want to tell him to take, but I think they need to learn what they can drive.”

 

Mauer discussed the type of conversation that he would typically have with such a hitter. It starts by helping them realize and learn what pitches they can drive.

 

“I know you can hit this pitch, but is this a pitch you can drive? If the answer is No, well, then you shouldn’t swing at it. If the answer is Yes, well, then go ahead.”

 

In Cedar Rapids, Mauer is working with a variety of players. He’s got a guy like Zander Wiel who played at Vanderbilt who isn’t going to be fazed by a big moment under the lights. He’s also got two 19-year-olds, Jermaine Palacios and Luis Arraez. Palacios broke out last season in the rookie leagues. Arraez played well in the GCL and then got exposure in the Venezuelan Winter League, playing against veterans.

 

LaMonte Wade fits into the Joe Mauer category of pitch recognition. The Twins drafted him in the ninth round last year out of Maryland. In his pro debut last season, mostly at Elizabethton, he walked 47 times with 36 strikeouts. In 261 plate appearances with the Kernels this year, he has walked 44 times with just 27 strikeouts. While he has struggled in his last ten games (3-35) to drop his average to .280, his on-base percentage remains .410. And even in those ten games, he has eight walks to just five strikeouts.

 

I asked him about his approach at the plate and if it is something learned. Wade said, “It’s definitely taught. It also has a lot to do with watching the batters in front of you, knowing the umpire’s strike zone. It starts in batting practice, getting your mind right and making sure you’re not swinging at every pitch.”

 

As Chattanooga Lookouts hitting coach Tommy Watkins said that’s good but it takes more too. “It's very tough because it's hard to simulate live pitching, but I think not swinging at everything in BP is good place to start.”

 

Wade and I discussed this topic quite a bit and I’m not going to give away all of his secrets, but it is quite evident that he goes into every single plate appearance with a plan. “0-0 and advantage counts, I’m looking for a ball middle-away, trying to hit the ball the other way. Obviously with two strikes, you’re just trying to battle. Just looking out over the plate and adjusting when it comes inside.”

 

He said that he learned some things in college at the University of Maryland as well. Again, I’m not going to give away the strategy, but it involves “hunting elevated fastballs up over the plate.”

 

At no point in my conversation with Wade did he mention looking to walk. The goal shouldn’t be to walk, but to get on base. Know the strike zone and attack pitches that you can drive. If it’s not there, let it go and take the walk.

 

But it has to start early as a player ages it gets more and more difficult to become a patient hitter. And of course, as you move up the competition only becomes better and knows how to attack your weaknesses.

 

As Mauer said, “Those guys in the big leagues they’re pretty good. They can expose holes pretty quick.”

 

And that’s what we’ve seen to this point. There are more scouting reports now than even ten years ago. Advanced statistical analysis makes hitting much more difficult, and it was already difficult from the start.

Rosario, Santana, and Vargas all got off to fast starts despite their inability to control the strike zone. It caught up to them in Year 2 when pitchers had more information. It is now up to them to make some adjustments to get back to the big leagues and hopefully experience more success. It is very unlikely that they ever become patient and frequent walkers, but improvement will be vital. Understanding the strike zone and their strengths is the key.

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

going to the plate looking to take one (such as Aaron Hicks) is a bad idea.  Being willing to take one is a different story, something Rosario, Vargas, Arcia, and Santana all need to learn.  If the pitcher isn't throwing enough strikes, then take the free pass.  Swing freely at those pitches out side of the zone and more often than not you're headed back to the dug out.  That's what a good at bat looks like.  The outcome is a result of the good process.  We get into trouble when we look at the outcome and want to see more of it, but forget that there's a process that is not easy to change. 

[Blackjack]

Good informative article Seth!!!

 

You'd hope the coaches throughout the system would be preaching 'good at bats' and 'we're not going to promote you even if you're hitting .400 if you're striking out a lot.'

 

Rosario got by with his free swinging with no incentive to change, until he flunked out at the highest level. 

[wsnydes]

I'm remember audibly laughing watching highlight reels of Vlad Guerrero and his ability to clobber "bad balls."  Golfing home runs out of the dirty, driving HRs over the RF wall from the LH batters box, etc.  Some guys can get away with it, some can't.  I think Jake Mauer put it rather succinctly.  

[tobi0040]

"If you have a guy that swings at everything you don't want to tell him to take"

 

No. That is exactly what you need to teach them. The more balls they take the better balls they will see in the zone, which are easier to drive.

 

What you are seeing are guys who put up good enough numbers in the minors to be promoted the following year and could get away with hacking. Then when faced against the best pitchers they fall flat. Look at ABW in AAA. This team lacks a development program with the mentality of using the minors as a tool to develop major league players. The big picture is lacking

[markos]

 

What you are seeing are guys who put up good enough numbers in the minors to be promoted the following year and could get away with hacking. Then when faced against the best pitchers they fall flat. Look at ABW in AAA. This team lacks a development program with the mentality of using the minors as a tool to develop major league players. The big picture is lacking

I completely agree with this assessment. I don't think this organization has realized that the hitting skills that produce box score success in the minors don't necessarily translate to success in the majors. Further, I don't think they make it a priority to develop big league skills at the expense of minor league success.

[wsnydes]

 

I completely agree with this assessment. I don't think this organization has realized that the hitting skills that produce box score success in the minors don't necessarily translate to success in the majors. Further, I don't think they make it a priority to develop big league skills at the expense of minor league success.

I think it's hard to argue that this team preaches what they say they preach in the minors.  Minor league players lack fundamental skills and and situational knowledge and awareness.  That's been going on for some time now.  Gardy was complaining that he was having to spend too much time teaching fundamentals.  That should not be the job of the big league skipper.  That's what the minors are for.  There's a reason that a team like the Cardinals continue to develop their farm system at such a high level.  They know these things when they get to the big leagues.  Then the big league skipper can work on mechanics and practice things rather than teach things.

[troyhobbs]

It'd be interesting to get Bruno's take on some of this. Does he look at the same scouting reports other teams are using against the Twins hitters and having them work on adjustments or does he just say "see the ball, hit the ball," "keep battling," "you are who you are," "rah rah," etc.

[jorgenswest]

I think it is about pitch recognition. The players above were not given the time in AA/AAA to develop that skill. Even in Hicks' case, he came up not recognizing a pitch to attack. Others were stacking pitches they shouldn't. It is the same skill and the Twins didn't have the patience or plan that allowed them to develop it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

"If you have a guy that swings at everything you don't want to tell him to take"

No. That is exactly what you need to teach them. The more balls they take the better balls they will see in the zone, which are easier to drive.

What you are seeing are guys who put up good enough numbers in the minors to be promoted the following year and could get away with hacking. Then when faced against the best pitchers they fall flat. Look at ABW in AAA. This team lacks a development program with the mentality of using the minors as a tool to develop major league players. The big picture is lacking

 

I wouldn't put ABWs BA on the org.  He was a 3rd rounder for a reason and it was well recognized he'd have these problems (hence his draft spot).  The fact that he hasn't been just promoted ought to say something, and I'm sure it's not that no one is saying take more pitches... judging by his results, that's what he's doing (or at least trying to) and not doing well I might add.

[tobi0040]

diehardtwinsfan, on 21 Jun 2016 - 09:06 AM, said:

I wouldn't put ABWs BA on the org.  He was a 3rd rounder for a reason and it was well recognized he'd have these problems (hence his draft spot).  The fact that he hasn't been just promoted ought to say something, and I'm sure it's not that no one is saying take more pitches... judging by his results, that's what he's doing (or at least trying to) and not doing well I might add.

Well in AA as a 23 year old he hit .239 and got on base just over 30% of the time. He hit 31 HR, great. But he struck out 35% of the time.

 

To me he needs to drastically improve the k rate and OBP if he ever has a shot as a major league DH, which is his only track up here. So instead of repeating AA and working on doing just that, they move him up. The result, a .730 OPS and a 42% k rate in AAA.

 

This has the look of a September callup at some point where the kid gets absolutely embarrassed.

Edited June 21, 2016 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

And if it was just Walker, it could perhaps be excused as relating to a unique player.  But pretty much every guy the Twins have promoted the past few years has some serious issues in this department.

[South Dakota Tom]

"If you have a guy that swings at everything you don't want to tell him to take"

 

I understand people disagree with this statement, but I think the answer is more in the phrasing than the philosophy.  Aggressive swingers don't respond well to "take pitches" because that takes away their aggressiveness.

 

What Jake is saying is that if they go up to bat, not thinking "take" but thinking "is this a pitch I can drive hard somewhere" it accomplishes the same thing without substantially changing the hitter's mentality.  I like it.

[Nick Nelson]

Rosario is never going to take a ton of walks. When he's going good, he is laying off the truly unhittable stuff, and putting good wood on tough pitches outside the zone. I do believe he can succeed with that approach because his wrists and hand/eye coordination are off the charts. But passing on pitches at his eyes or in the dirt will be the key.

 

It's definitely encouraging to see him drawing a few free passes in Rochester.

[Seth Stohs]

 

"If you have a guy that swings at everything you don't want to tell him to take"

 

I understand people disagree with this statement, but I think the answer is more in the phrasing than the philosophy.  Aggressive swingers don't respond well to "take pitches" because that takes away their aggressiveness.

 

What Jake is saying is that if they go up to bat, not thinking "take" but thinking "is this a pitch I can drive hard somewhere" it accomplishes the same thing without substantially changing the hitter's mentality.  I like it.

 

Yup, you don't want to take away aggressiveness, just need to find a way to harness it. Become patient enough to know which pitches they can drive. You don't want hitters thinking Walk, but knowing themselves and the strike zone enough that if they're given a walk, they're OK with it, but if they're thrown pitches they can drive, they don't miss them.

[Seth Stohs]

 

And if it was just Walker, it could perhaps be excused as relating to a unique player.  But pretty much every guy the Twins have promoted the past few years has some serious issues in this department.

 

Having watched Walker, I know that 1.) he's really worked on it, and 2.) Chad Allen and others have really worked on it.

 

He just hasn't been able to lay off of certain pitches. There are many times he is patient and ends up in 0-2 or 1-2 counts. I've seen him lay off of those sliders down and away on 0-2 and 1-2 only to swing at it on 2-2 or 3-2. I think every coach in the Twins system and the front office types get it. You just hope that a guy who is still just 24 can find a way for something to click. But just saying "Take pitches" isn't necessarily the best way to do that. 

[wsnydes]

 

"If you have a guy that swings at everything you don't want to tell him to take"

 

I understand people disagree with this statement, but I think the answer is more in the phrasing than the philosophy.  Aggressive swingers don't respond well to "take pitches" because that takes away their aggressiveness.

 

What Jake is saying is that if they go up to bat, not thinking "take" but thinking "is this a pitch I can drive hard somewhere" it accomplishes the same thing without substantially changing the hitter's mentality.  I like it.

Well put.  I think the idea is that even aggressive hitters that chase out of the zone can still be selective.  It's not necessarily that they swing at pitches out of the zone, it's what pitches they swing at out of the zone.  I agree in general that hitters need to be more selective, forcing pitchers to stay in the zone, but if that takes the aggressiveness away from a hitter and they suck because of it I don't see how that's a win.  It should be more about getting a hitter to understand their own tendencies and work with them to become a better hitter rather than completely revamping a guys approach in order to (hopefully) make them more successful.

 

When you have guys like Rosario that swing at everything, that's still about pitch selection.  Its the same basic message.  They just have to realize which pitches they can do damage with, not what they can make contact with.  There's a massive difference between those two concepts.  Similarly, just because it's a strike, that doesn't mean it's worth swinging at in certain situations.

Edited June 21, 2016 by wsnydes

[ashbury]

What Jake is saying is that if they go up to bat, not thinking "take" but thinking "is this a pitch I can drive hard somewhere" it accomplishes the same thing without substantially changing the hitter's mentality.  I like it.

I am neither a good chess player nor a good baseball player, but I believe the concepts of one can guide the other. A young chess player can first be taught some simple combinations that will lead to mate, and then the player practices doing that to opponents to get a feel for exploiting a winning edge when it's there. After that, the player learns to wait until a suitable opportunity presents itself, rather than try to force a winning combination when it's not there. After that, perhaps, the player needs to be taught how to not make mistakes of his own, while playing this waiting game. Then, the player learns to add feints and other tactics to try to provoke error by the opponent. And so on, with varying layers of complexity that I personally never can hope to aspire to. Eventually the player also learns how to play a long tactical game where you build a series of tiny advantages that winds up being decisive. But... and this is the important part... at the heart of chess at even the highest level is the constant threat of unleashing a lethal combination of moves that destroys the opponent seemingly without warning. You never want to lose that spirit of aggressiveness, but conversely you can defeat yourself by trying for a winning combination too soon against a competent opponent.

 

And I think a batter's approach at the plate can benefit from this sequential approach as well, over a period of several seasons in the minors. When all is said and done, the batter needs to know what pitch is the kind he can inflict the most damage with, and wait with varying degrees of patience until it is presented to him. The better the patience, within limits, the less often that patience will need to be exhibited.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Having watched Walker, I know that 1.) he's really worked on it, and 2.) Chad Allen and others have really worked on it.

I have no doubt the coaches have "worked on it" with these players, but isn't that kind of the bare minimum?  If they didn't work on it, that would be grounds for firing on the spot.  At some point, we have to consider whether their "working on it" is producing sufficient results.

[jorgenswest]

I am not as certain about Rosario.

 

He has three extremes that will makes it difficult. He swings and misses at an extreme rate. The leader in that category is often a power hitter which isn't Rosario.

 

He swings at pitches out of the zone at an extreme rate. That can work if your out of zone contact rate is also high. Unfortunately Rosario contact rate out of the zone is below average.

 

It is not just out of the zone but his swing rate in general is extreme. He doesn't match that with an extreme contact rate. It is possible to be successful swinging aggressively but players need to match that with high contact rates.

 

No hitter is going to be successful long term if they swing at a higher rate of pitches than anyone else with a swing and miss rate also amongst the leaders. The AAA slash stats tell us little about his progress. My guess is that AAA pitchers aren't as deceptive and his contact rate is up. I am hoping that he has improved his plate discipline but there is nothing in the slash stats that would show that improvement.

[stringer bell]

Strikeouts don't exactly equal lack of plate discipline and walks don't exactly equal selectivity. As was stated above, the key for a Rosario is to stay in the hittable zone and not chase pitches. It will get him to more favorable counts and get him more good pitches to hit. It is nice to draw an occasional walk, but far more important to get good pitches to hit.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Well in AA as a 23 year old he hit .239 and got on base just over 30% of the time. He hit 31 HR, great. But he struck out 35% of the time. To me he needs to drastically improve the k rate and OBP if he ever has a shot as a major league DH, which is his only track up here. So instead of repeating AA and working on doing just that, they move him up. The result, a .730 OPS and a 42% k rate in AAA. This has the look of a September callup at some point where the kid gets absolutely embarrassed.

 

I never said any of that wasn't true.  What I am saying is that you're being pretty unreasonable if you think his failure to do better in this area is on the org.  He was a 3rd round pick for a reason, and these types of players fail all the time all over MLB.    That was my point. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I never said any of that wasn't true.  What I am saying is that you're being pretty unreasonable if you think his failure to do better in this area is on the org.  He was a 3rd round pick for a reason, and these types of players fail all the time all over MLB.    That was my point. 

True, but this discussion is about more than Walker.  He's not the only data point.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I have no doubt the coaches have "worked on it" with these players, but isn't that kind of the bare minimum?  If they didn't work on it, that would be grounds for firing on the spot.  At some point, we have to consider whether their "working on it" is producing sufficient results.

 

Fair point... but my point is that sometimes it becomes a personal attack (that's a little strong, I know) when a player is overly aggressive or isn't able to make adjustments. Sometimes it takes a little longer with a guy. Sometimes they never figure it out and don't get there, or don't get back and stick. I just want to make sure people don't think that it is necessarily a lack of effort. But as Tommy said, it's really hard to simulate outside of games.

[old nurse]

 

I am not as certain about Rosario.

He has three extremes that will makes it difficult. He swings and misses at an extreme rate. The leader in that category is often a power hitter which isn't Rosario.

He swings at pitches out of the zone at an extreme rate. That can work if your out of zone contact rate is also high. Unfortunately Rosario contact rate out of the zone is below average.

It is not just out of the zone but his swing rate in general is extreme. He doesn't match that with an extreme contact rate. It is possible to be successful swinging aggressively but players need to match that with high contact rates.

No hitter is going to be successful long term if they swing at a higher rate of pitches than anyone else with a swing and miss rate also amongst the leaders. The AAA slash stats tell us little about his progress. My guess is that AAA pitchers aren't as deceptive and his contact rate is up. I am hoping that he has improved his plate discipline but there is nothing in the slash stats that would show that improvement.

On past threads about AAAA pitching, deception works in the minors better than the majors. At AAA the pitcher has success with deception, the major league hitters are not fooled by it. .

[tobi0040]

I never said any of that wasn't true.  What I am saying is that you're being pretty unreasonable if you think his failure to do better in this area is on the org.  He was a 3rd round pick for a reason, and these types of players fail all the time all over MLB.    That was my point.

I brought up Walker because the article listed a bunch of players and he wasn't listed. And because he was a very clear example of someone who was promoted before he had the tools to be able to succeed in the big leagues.

 

The odd thing is the Twins have been extremely hesitant to promote pitchers who walk guys. But have been very willing to promote hitters who don't take walks. One would think a pitcher that walks 20 more batters is the same as a hitter who takes 20 fewer. But my head is sore from all the scratching, I just don't bother anymore.

[70charger]

 

"If you have a guy that swings at everything you don't want to tell him to take"

 

I understand people disagree with this statement, but I think the answer is more in the phrasing than the philosophy.  Aggressive swingers don't respond well to "take pitches" because that takes away their aggressiveness.

 

What Jake is saying is that if they go up to bat, not thinking "take" but thinking "is this a pitch I can drive hard somewhere" it accomplishes the same thing without substantially changing the hitter's mentality.  I like it.

 

Pretty much this.

 

If I could interpose a word that I think makes it clearer what (I personally think) he was saying: "If you have a guy that swings at everything you don't JUST want to tell him to take."

 

Which is to say that it is way more than just telling a batter to look at pitches. It's about the approach, the chess match between the hitter and the pitcher. The pitch recognition skill. Basically, JUST telling a hitter to take is the same as just telling a hitter to swing at whatever.

Edited June 21, 2016 by 70charger

[tobi0040]

I have no doubt the coaches have "worked on it" with these players, but isn't that kind of the bare minimum?  If they didn't work on it, that would be grounds for firing on the spot.  At some point, we have to consider whether their "working on it" is producing sufficient results.

Yeah. That is kind of where we are at. Very few teams in this league have an inherent advantage over us, yet they are all basically winning many more games. There comes a point that trying is not good enough. Sometimes you are just in over your head.

[REPETE]

As Roy Smalley's pointed out (about 100 times, I believe), it's more than just taking balls & swinging at strikes.  His assessment of Buxton seems right, in the fact he's constantly pulling off the ball when he's getting a breaking ball on the outside corner.  As Roy puts it, "his butt's going the wrong direction to hit that pitch".  So I think the strikeout/walk ratio is telling, but especially in Buxton's case, he's striking out on a lot of pitches that are borderline strikes.    

[wsnydes]

 

As Roy Smalley's pointed out (about 100 times, I believe), it's more than just taking balls & swinging at strikes.  His assessment of Buxton seems right, in the fact he's constantly pulling off the ball when he's getting a breaking ball on the outside corner.  As Roy puts it, "his butt's going the wrong direction to hit that pitch".  So I think the strikeout/walk ratio is telling, but especially in Buxton's case, he's striking out on a lot of pitches that are borderline strikes.    

Agreed.  In Buxton's case, I feel it's pitch recognition.  Pulling off of breaking balls, particularly from RHs would indicate to me that he sees a pitching coming inside and doesn't drive into it.  When it starts to break away from him, he ends up out of balance and reaching.  That, IMO, screams of not enough seasoning at the higher levels of the minors where breaking pitches are better than in the lower levels.  He also seems to foul off very hittable pitches because of the same lack of pitch recognition.  I like that he's able to fight a little, but I think there is a lot of room for growth there.  I'm not really worried about him long term yet though.

Edited June 21, 2016 by wsnydes