Article: Oswaldo Arcia And The Limits Of Patience

[jimmer]

 

Also correct.  I figured this day was coming as soon as that signing was made.  I'm surprised that it took this long, but the writing was on the wall.  That move created far more problems than it's been worth.

it hasn't been worth much at all.

[wsnydes]

 

it hasn't been worth much at all.

Pretty much.  I figured that if it would be "okay" as long as they dealt Plouffe.  Since that didn't happen, all bets were off.  In fact, at that point I was convinced that that's exactly what was going to happen because that's the only way the deal made any sense.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Same general manager.

 

Did you not read my facts?  From June to August in 2013 - a time period in which that wrist injury is not a factor - Clete Thomas had more at-bats.  That's just a fact.  Who is trying to spin something now Nick?

I'm not spinning anything, You're simply incorrect in claiming that they were prioritizing Thomas over Arcia. Usually they were playing in the same outfield because Clete played CF. Arcia was sent down to the minors for a couple of weeks in late July because he was in a bad slump. That happens to 22-YO rookies sometimes. 

 

Also I don't really see how events that took place 3 years ago are really relevant to the decision to DFA him now.

 

You can rip the Twins for how they developed him and I won't necessarily disagree, but as I said in the piece that's a separate discussion. As things currently stand, he is not a useful piece for this organization. When you're a RH-masher who is out of options and whiffing in half your PAs against RHPs after batting below .200 at AAA, the rope runs out. To blame Molitor's usage when he's getting 82% of his looks against righties is just silly. 

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, we're five pages into this and it's worth pointing out that Arcia also could have been retained if we had sent down the might Buddy Boshers or "Fill in one of the horde of nameless schmoes in our 13 man bullpen here"

[PopRiveter]

This will prove to be the single worst decision the Twins make this year. Maybe decade.

 

Arcia's career will fall in the range of Nick Swisher to Manny Ramirez.

 

Danny Santana's will fall in the range of Darin Mastroianni to Lew Ford...

 

and we already saw Danny's one good season.

 

I have not felt this sick about a piece of sport's news since I was the seemingly lone voice crying over the release of Ortiz.

 

Hitters like this don't come through the pipeline everyday. To give up on this one is as bad an idea as it would have been to cut bait on Morneau after '05. World class stupid.

[Rosterman]

 

Poor comparison to Ortiz because Ortiz was a very good hitter with the Twins.     Injuries and a determination that they would rather have Dougie M's defense at 1st   than Ortiz and his bat was questionable at the time but it was mostly the injuries.    Ortiz had an .809 OPS with the Twins.    Arcia's best year two years ago was .752.  Big difference.

Arcia, in this sense, fell into the same category as Ortiz. Except Ortiz was also about money. The Twins somehow saw the same production for the DH spot happening with LeCroy, who could also catch. They saw Mientkiewicz as being the guy at first. They didn't see a lot of at bats happening for Ortiz, or just sticking him on the bench, and paying him a million bucks or so. Little did we know.

 

But we are questioning if the Twins do have a plan, a long-range roster construction. And, yes, it is amazing that next season Kepler will be out of options and has to stick (because the Twins added him too soon thinking someone would claim our bonus baby). It is a strange game baseball plays. Glad Kepler is getting a chance to work thru things and he does look like a keeper and the more at bats he gets this year, the better he will be next year (one hopes) or at least he looks like he will listen and learn.

 

Of course, NO ONE may claim Arcia, which means we get to kep him and make another decision on him next year, which would be a ncie luxury. Or he tears up AAA ball and is a positive trading chip as an add-on to rid of us, say, a large pitching contract/

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

\Also I don't really see how events that took place 3 years ago are really relevant to the decision to DFA him now.

 

You can rip the Twins for how they developed him and I won't necessarily disagree, but as I said in the piece that's a separate discussion. As things currently stand, he is not a useful piece for this organization. When you're a RH-masher who is out of options and whiffing in half your PAs against RHPs after batting below .200 at AAA, the rope runs out. To blame Molitor's usage when he's getting 82% of his looks against righties is just silly. 

 

Why is his production from 2014 not relevant but you keep harping on his minor league numbers in 2015?  You're playing fast and loose with what helps your argument.  

 

Has his production this year been great?  No, he's clearly struggling with adjustments.  It may not have helped that the team basically turned him into a bench player for half a season last year.  

 

But what's key is that this is NOT a separate discussion.  You stated, at least twice, that the Twins gave him a "chance to succeed" and "make it right".  Now you're suggesting you'd agree they probably didn't.  Since when is how a team handles and develops a player not relevant to the player's production?  Is that seriously the argument you're making?  

 

Arcia struggled to adjust - most young players do.  What is different in his case was that the team prioritized Hunter over allowing him to continue to adjust to big league pitching.  They prioritized Park over giving him a run.  And now they prioritized Danny Santana and/or one of their 13 pitchers over him.  

[jimmer]

If someone thinks 179 PAs in the last 231 games isn't enough to say he was given a chance, I don't know what to tell them :-)  And, come on, a season like this isn't the kind of season where you see what you got in a player, especially one with an OPS in the mid .700s (unaided by BABIP) just two seasons ago.  These games matter! :-)

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[troyhobbs]

My main concern with this move is does it mean that they're still considering Sano an OF? Woulda made more sense to me to send down Park (or a pitcher or trade an aging veteran past his prime) and put Arcia in at DH until Sano comes back and make Park earn his way back on the roster and move Sano to 3B finally.

 

It sorta looks like they're fixing on keeping Plouffe around and continuing the Sano experiment in RF. Concerning also to consider what they plan to do with Polanco so they can keep Dozier around....

[howieramone2]

Good grief! Arcia and Pinto will be fighting to see who is the DH for a beer ball team. 

[howieramone2]

 

My main concern with this move is does it mean that they're still considering Sano an OF? Woulda made more sense to me to send down Park (or a pitcher or trade an aging veteran past his prime) and put Arcia in at DH until Sano comes back and make Park earn his way back on the roster and move Sano to 3B finally.

 

It sorta looks like they're fixing on keeping Plouffe around and continuing the Sano experiment in RF. Concerning also to consider what they plan to do with Polanco so they can keep Dozier around....

TR said yesterday on Inside Twins, Sano's future is at 3B. So the fan board is getting what they want and Plouffe is on the table.

[wsnydes]

 

TR said yesterday on Inside Twins, Sano's future is at 3B. So the fan board is getting what they want and Plouffe is on the table.

He said that last year too...

[troyhobbs]

 

TR said yesterday on Inside Twins, Sano's future is at 3B. So the fan board is getting what they want and Plouffe is on the table.

Thank God. Was hoping Sano didn't factor into the supposed logjam of MLB caliber OF's on the roster.

[TheLeviathan]

 

He said that last year too...

 

Guess that should put to rest the idea that the Twins put him in the OF because he can't play third.

 

That's it, I'm becoming a cricket fan!

[jimmer]

 

Thank God. Was hoping Sano didn't factor into the supposed logjam of MLB caliber OF's on the roster.

good stuff.  right up there with too many quality MLB starters to put May in the rotation :-)

 

At what point do the Twins just do this:  Trade Plouffe and Dozier.

 

Rosario in LF, Buxton in CF, Kepler in RF, Sano at 3B and Polanco at 2B.

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[Nick Nelson]

 

Why is his production from 2014 not relevant but you keep harping on his minor league numbers in 2015?  You're playing fast and loose with what helps your argument.  

 

Has his production this year been great?  No, he's clearly struggling with adjustments.  It may not have helped that the team basically turned him into a bench player for half a season last year.  

 

But what's key is that this is NOT a separate discussion.  You stated, at least twice, that the Twins gave him a "chance to succeed" and "make it right".  Now you're suggesting you'd agree they probably didn't.  Since when is how a team handles and develops a player not relevant to the player's production?  Is that seriously the argument you're making?  

Focusing on more recent events qualifies as playing "fast and loose"? Ok.

 

Arcia IS a bench/part-time player. When you don't play defense, can't run, and can't hit LH pitchers, that's the way it is. He was not miscast in that role. Molitor played Arcia damn near exclusively against right-handed pitchers to try to get him going and it didn't happen.

 

When I mentioned development issues I was referring to coaching and helping him make adjustments. His playing time has been fine. 

[SwainZag]

 

This will prove to be the single worst decision the Twins make this year. Maybe decade.

 

Arcia's career will fall in the range of Nick Swisher to Manny Ramirez.

 

Danny Santana's will fall in the range of Darin Mastroianni to Lew Ford...

 

and we already saw Danny's one good season.

 

I have not felt this sick about a piece of sport's news since I was the seemingly lone voice crying over the release of Ortiz.

 

Hitters like this don't come through the pipeline everyday. To give up on this one is as bad an idea as it would have been to cut bait on Morneau after '05. World class stupid.

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  The comparison is between Swisher and Manny?  Where did you pull these out?  Both of those hitters walked a lot more and struck out a lot less than Arcia ever has.  Swisher was a competent fielder until late in his career and Manny was one of the better RH power hitters the game has ever seen.  I understand and have seen the guys potential, but this is getting out of hand.

[stringer bell]

OK, here's my take. Oswaldo Arcia is vulnerable to high fastballs and breaking balls in the dirt and he can't lay off either one consistently. That is probably one too many holes to be an effective major league hitter long term. If that is the case, then what else does Arcia offer? Well, he looks like a good teammate and he's good with the GatorAde bucket. He's not fast, he is a poor defender and he plays left and right field.

 

"Good" Arcia happened in 2013-2014. Since then, he has been a poor player. Since 2014, Danny Santana has been a poor player as well. If you want to include 2013 and 2014 for Arcia in assessing his upside, you have to look at Danny's 2014. Santana was pretty spectacular in 2014.

 

So what you have is two players who both looked like they had broken through coming into 2015. One of them is a switch hitter who has played a lot of games up the middle of the diamond and who has very good speed and the other who has only played the corner outfield spots (poorly) and has demonstrated power. It is not so cut and dried that Oswaldo Arcia is the superior option.

[big dog]

 

This will prove to be the single worst decision the Twins make this year. Maybe decade.

 

Arcia's career will fall in the range of Nick Swisher to Manny Ramirez.

 

 

OK, I'll take the under on that.

[wsnydes]

 

good stuff.  right up there with too many quality MLB starters to put May in the rotation :-)

 

At what point do the Twins just do this:  Trade Plouffe and Dozier.

 

Rosario in LF, Buxton in CF, Kepler in RF, Sano at 3B and Polanco at 2B.

They were at the trade Plouffe point this time last year...

 

Dozier is more of a "deal the veterans to free up PT and acquire talent" in my view.  I do want to see Polanco though.

Edited June 20, 2016 by wsnydes

[TheLeviathan]

 

Focusing on more recent events qualifies as playing "fast and loose"? Ok.

 

When I mentioned development issues I was referring to coaching and helping him make adjustments. His playing time has been fine.

 

Yes, if we want to use every young player's worst, and most recent, production to slam them - why in the blue hell did you bring up Rosario?  That seems like a really bizarre set of rules you're playing with. 

 

His playing time really hasn't been.  He was a productive first and second year player and then was basically banished his entire third season.  Then he was bypassed for a FA that isn't panning out in his fourth season.  He was basically given zero rope to capitalize on his potential the second he started to struggle.

 

And, again, we could've cut any number of players with FAR less upside and didn't.

[big dog]

 

Correct.  I'm not going to lose sleep over Arcia, but there were more deserving options to be cut loose or sent down.  Carrying the 13 pitchers for Molitor to mismanage and overuse is a mistake.

Yeah, that's my take.  I think Arcia should have been used differently in previous years, but at this time and with this roster I think it's time to drop him.  But I also think it's time to do a ton of different things, dropping Santana being another timely move.  If this is the only move they make, what's the point.

[wsnydes]

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  The comparison is between Swisher and Manny?  Where did you pull these out?  Both of those hitters walked a lot more and struck out a lot less than Arcia ever has.  Swisher was a competent fielder until late in his career and Manny was one of the better RH power hitters the game has ever seen.  I understand and have seen the guys potential, but this is getting out of hand.

I was going to put him somewhere between Jason Tyner and Roberto Clemente, but he already beat me to the comparison post.

[howieramone2]

 

He said that last year too...

No he didn't.

[Vanimal46]

OK, here's my take. Oswaldo Arcia is vulnerable to high fastballs and breaking balls in the dirt and he can't lay off either one consistently. That is probably one too many holes to be an effective major league hitter long term. If that is the case, then what else does Arcia offer? Well, he looks like a good teammate and he's good with the GatorAde bucket. He's not fast, he is a poor defender and he plays left and right field.

 

"Good" Arcia happened in 2013-2014. Since then, he has been a poor player. Since 2014, Danny Santana has been a poor player as well. If you want to include 2013 and 2014 for Arcia in assessing his upside, you have to look at Danny's 2014. Santana was pretty spectacular in 2014.

 

So what you have is two players who both looked like they had broken through coming into 2015. One of them is a switch hitter who has played a lot of games up the middle of the diamond and who has very good speed and the other who has only played the corner outfield spots (poorly) and has demonstrated power. It is not so cut and dried that Oswaldo Arcia is the superior option.

Arcia and Santana are both fringe players, I think we can all agree to that. However, athletic light hitting players are certainly more readily available than players that can hit for power.

[jimmer]

 

Arcia and Santana are both fringe players, I think we can all agree to that. However, athletic light hitting players are certainly more readily available than players that can hit for power.

Santana was arguably the worst player in the majors last year amongst players who got any kind of regular time.  And he'll likely get even more PAs this year.  He already leads the league in caught stealing even though he's only attempted 17 steals.  And he's not a good defender.  The rope he's allotted because of numbers heavily boosted by a .400 BABIP in 2014 is incredible.  Then again, look what the Twins did after Hughes and Suzuki had their 2014 season. 

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

Arcia and Santana are both fringe players, I think we can all agree to that. However, athletic light hitting players are certainly more readily available than players that can hit for power.

That is exactly it. I would be curious Nick, if you were the GM would you DFA Santana or Arcia? An either or. Not both.

 

I think that is what has folks riled up. Why DFA Arcia who has some potential over Santana who has none, is more replaceable, and less upside.

[Mike Sixel]

 

OK, here's my take. Oswaldo Arcia is vulnerable to high fastballs and breaking balls in the dirt and he can't lay off either one consistently. That is probably one too many holes to be an effective major league hitter long term. If that is the case, then what else does Arcia offer? Well, he looks like a good teammate and he's good with the GatorAde bucket. He's not fast, he is a poor defender and he plays left and right field.

 

"Good" Arcia happened in 2013-2014. Since then, he has been a poor player. Since 2014, Danny Santana has been a poor player as well. If you want to include 2013 and 2014 for Arcia in assessing his upside, you have to look at Danny's 2014. Santana was pretty spectacular in 2014.

 

So what you have is two players who both looked like they had broken through coming into 2015. One of them is a switch hitter who has played a lot of games up the middle of the diamond and who has very good speed and the other who has only played the corner outfield spots (poorly) and has demonstrated power. It is not so cut and dried that Oswaldo Arcia is the superior option.

 

We'll have to disagree on Santana looking like he broke through, many people here did not think that had happened.

 

I do agree, neither look like a good option right now. 

[jimmer]

 

We'll have to disagree on Santana looking like he broke through, many people here did not think that had happened.

 

I do agree, neither look like a good option right now. 

Good Arcia (2014) had a BABIP in the high 200s (below league average).

 

Good Santana (2014) had a BABIP in the .400s (more than 100 points higher than league average).

[Vanimal46]

Santana was arguably the worst player in the majors last year amongst players who got any kind of regular time. And he'll likely get even more PAs this year. He already leads the league in caught stealing even though he's only attempted 17 steals. And he's not a good defender. The rope he's allotted because of numbers heavily boosted by a .400 BABIP in 2014 is incredible. Then again, look what the Twins did after Hughes and Suzuki had their 2014 season.

No need to tell me. I got the ball rolling on this thread of how bad Santana has been