Is Arcia the best prospect in the system?

[Seth Stohs]

So, Hermsen added a mph or two since last year... hopefully that keeps moving up and he can get to 89!

 

Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia... Arcia has been remarkable and I may not be able to move him up beyond #5. Wow! That said, a case could be made for all five of them in any of those spots. The question marks surrounding Sano are the same question marks surrounding Arcia, breaking balls, defense, strikeouts, etc.

[Celebrity Weddings!]

Paul Molitor was on radio today talkin minor leagues. Says Arcia still has major holes in his swing on breakin pitches & is over a yr away from bein ready.

Isn't AA where pitchers are supposed to start finding and exploiting those holes? Lefties don't have much difficulty with him, but I think Molitor's knock is a rather delightful bit of hype for whatever Arcia looks like when he's "ready".

[Mike Sixel]

I really do love Seth's optimism. I don't always share it, but I really do appreciate it. one of the reasons I kept going to his site....

[Riverbrian]

I really do love Seth's optimism. I don't always share it, but I really do appreciate it. one of the reasons I kept going to his site....

He's steady and he's great balance for this website.

[drjim]

He could be the best prospect, but I still have him at #5.

 

Sano has the best power in the minors

Buxton is a tool shed with huge upside

Hicks will be an elite defensive CF in range and arm, draws walks, speed

Rosario seems like he can stay at 2B, great hitter and will get some bags as well

 

I'll take these four over a solid defensive corner OF with questions on if he can hit lefties. That said, a 21 year old lighting up AA is damn good.

[drjim]

Would this be fair?

1. Sano

2. Buxton

3. Arcia

4. Hicks

5. Gibson

It's fair, but I would definitely have Rosario over Gibson.

[J-Dog Dungan]

It's fair, but I would definitely have Rosario over Gibson.

Especially since we have seen very little of Gibson since his return to pitching.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

I'd be more inclined towards

 

1. Sano

2. Arcia

3. Buxton

4. Hicks

5. Rosario

[Vervehound]

I'd be more inclined towards

 

1. Sano

2. Arcia

3. Buxton

4. Hicks

5. Rosario

you've got the right guys in your top five, but arcia is going to be the third ranked prospect in this system because he doesn't have any 80 tools like sano or buxton.

 

i was one of two byto'ers to rank arcia our second best prospect coming into the season and i think that's been vindicated. as for a comp, he's got lefty magglio ordonez upside. bobby abreu has been mentioned before when it comes to him, but that's more in relation to his load/swing.

 

btw, what do you know about our two new aussie arms: sam gibbons and louis thorpe? both look like nice prospects. one day, i'm hopeful we'll have an all aussie rotation at target field....

[Vervehound]

btw, the real question is this: who's the number six prospect in the system? the top five are pretty easy to figure out, and then comes the void. i'd say no to either benson or gibson and look to either kepler or berrios right now. harrison would also be in play.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Both Thorpe and Gibbons are from Melbourne, so I haven't seen either play. Thorpe though is regarded as one of the best prospects in Australia. He's only 16, a lefty with a fastball that's topped out at around 90-91 mph. He's not a big guy, so not sure how much upside there is in his velocity. Rumour here is he signed for a pretty decent bonus ($500k?) but not sure how accurate that is.

Good to see the Aussie invasion gathering speed though!

[diehardtwinsfan]

i was one of two byto'ers to rank arcia our second best prospect coming into the season and i think that's been vindicated. as for a comp, he's got lefty magglio ordonez upside. bobby abreu has been mentioned before when it comes to him, but that's more in relation to his load/swing.

 

 

I think it was me, you, and pig... maybe one or two others. I can kind of get swapping Arcia/Rosario (at least last year), but at one point, results really need to start weighing in on things. I get that with his Ks he needs to work on pitch recognition and contact, but this kid looks like a cleanup hitter who can also play above average defense in the corners. I have to weigh that higher than Buxton, no matter what his "tool" ceiling may be, because he's so far down and hasn't produced. Sano has certainly shown the power piece, but is still a work in progress, and I'd add that Arcia did much better in his first go around at Beloit too... You have to think that Arcia is an A- prospect at this point, and quite possibly a borderline A guy. Given his age, no way I can give Buxton anything higher than a B+.

[Vervehound]

Both Thorpe and Gibbons are from Melbourne, so I haven't seen either play. Thorpe though is regarded as one of the best prospects in Australia. He's only 16, a lefty with a fastball that's topped out at around 90-91 mph. He's not a big guy, so not sure how much upside there is in his velocity. Rumour here is he signed for a pretty decent bonus ($500k?) but not sure how accurate that is.

Good to see the Aussie invasion gathering speed though!

gibbons has a monster frame so he's pretty projectable. thorpe did sign for 500k - second highest int'l bonus the twins doled out this year. i think much of our future on the mound is sitting in the gcl this year - there are a lot of arms with lift to them down there and next year's team should include thorpe, gonzalez and silva at a minimum - not a bad start.

[Vervehound]

I think it was me, you, and pig... maybe one or two others. I can kind of get swapping Arcia/Rosario (at least last year), but at one point, results really need to start weighing in on things. I get that with his Ks he needs to work on pitch recognition and contact, but this kid looks like a cleanup hitter who can also play above average defense in the corners. I have to weigh that higher than Buxton, no matter what his "tool" ceiling may be, because he's so far down and hasn't produced. Sano has certainly shown the power piece, but is still a work in progress, and I'd add that Arcia did much better in his first go around at Beloit too... You have to think that Arcia is an A- prospect at this point, and quite possibly a borderline A guy. Given his age, no way I can give Buxton anything higher than a B+.

yes - i remember you siding with arcia. you can make the argument for arcia, but collective prospect wisdom will have him easily behind sano and buxton. re: sano - it's not just the power - look at the number of walks so far this year. that's a huge development in his favour. anyway, i'm thinking both arcia and rosario will show up half way into the top 50-100 prospects this year and hicks has a shot to sneak in as well if he can keep it together.

[diehardtwinsfan]

the walks are huge... so much so that his OBP is nearly identical to his Elizabethon OBP despite the 50 point drop in BA... I'm hoping that's cause he's letting a few too many strikes go by... that, I think, is easier to fix than failing away at them.

 

Collective prospect wisdom also ignores results. Buxton in my opinion is likely behind Sano, Rosario, Arcia, and Hicks.... Hicks and Buxton are basically clones, though right now, Hicks is getting the results...

[kab21]

Arcia and Rosario are already showing up near the midpoint of the midseason lists. There might not be much pitching but this is becoming a good system.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I was actually thinking the same thing on the ride home from work today. Then I came on here and lo and behold! Arcia is such a talented hitter that I have a feeling he will become a star, not just a starter.

[drjim]

btw, the real question is this: who's the number six prospect in the system? the top five are pretty easy to figure out, and then comes the void. i'd say no to either benson or gibson and look to either kepler or berrios right now. harrison would also be in play.

This is a good question. I would still say too early on Berrios. Maybe Kepler. I'm big into Goodrum right now, but 6 is probably too high. His average is low, but is K/BB ratio is good, he's hitting for some pop and it looks like he might stick at SS.

 

There are some good second tier hitters as well - Michaels, Herrmann, maybe Santana. Those guys can all be big leaguers of some sort.

[gunnarthor]

btw, the real question is this: who's the number six prospect in the system? the top five are pretty easy to figure out, and then comes the void. i'd say no to either benson or gibson and look to either kepler or berrios right now. harrison would also be in play.

I think it's still Gibson. We have a lot of intriguing young guys but Gibson was a top talent. Injuries are an obvious problem but he seems to be coming back, more or less, on schedule. (I guess technically Liam Hendriks is still a prospect until he gets over the 45 inning thing but he should do that this year but if you want to count him, I guess he'd be #6)

[greengoblinrulz]

whatever the order, is this the best 5 prospects MN has had in years???

This also includes Joe Benson not having any shot in the top 5, but was recently rated 99th best prospect by MLB entering the yr.

Are we gonna have to deal one/more of these guys for pitching tho??

[kab21]

gibson is easily my #6 but I never dropped him as much as others. there is a clear top 5, a clear #6 (imo) and then a really strong group after that. Berrios, Kepler, Harrison, Goodrum, boyd, boer and possibly Walker and Jorge (I've always been high on him but he's at the end of the group). The good thing is that the Twins seem to have been hitting on their toolsy upside picks from the last couple of years. We still need more pro ball data from any of these to put them at the top of the group but I like it.

 

FWIW - guys like Salcedo, Michael, Benson would still be ranked within that group but they fall into a different category.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd tenatively say Benson... This season is more or less lost, but he put up some good results in AA last season. I suspect he's going to Rochester again next year. Gibson isn't that far behind either if he can prove he's back. Does Parmalee still count as a prospect? I'd argue he's looking more and more like a middle of the order bat as well.

[Mike Sixel]

Gibson is #6, he'll be in the majors next year as a 4 or, moving to a 3.5......

 

As for the strenght of the system, I find the love for Ryan and hate for Smith hilarious, given that the system nearly died the last few years Ryan was the GM, and nearly all the strengh is from the Smith era (Not that the GM makes the picks.....). When Ryan gets all the credit for the team in 2014, will anyone remember that nearly all those guys are in the system from teh Smith era?

[Brock Beauchamp]

As for the strenght of the system, I find the love for Ryan and hate for Smith hilarious, given that the system nearly died the last few years Ryan was the GM, and nearly all the strengh is from the Smith era (Not that the GM makes the picks.....). When Ryan gets all the credit for the team in 2014, will anyone remember that nearly all those guys are in the system from teh Smith era?

I've said it a bunch of times but I think Smith did a pretty good job with almost everything not directly involving the major league franchise. His drafting and foreign scouting was between good and great depending on year.

 

On the other hand, his handling of the major league was abominable. Santana for nothing, traded Garza the same year, ping-pong JJ Hardy around for no real reason, Nishioka, Wilson for Capps...

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed, the part that he actually did was awful. Just awful. Those trades were awful. Ryan of course compounded the problem by signing Capps again.....

[Boom Boom]

Agreed, the part that he actually did was awful. Just awful. Those trades were awful. Ryan of course compounded the problem by signing Capps again.....

Smith has been vindicated a bit for the Bullock-Diamond trade.

 

But yeah, on the whole it was very very bad.

[Thrylos]

I've said it a bunch of times but I think Smith did a pretty good job with almost everything not directly involving the major league franchise. His drafting and foreign scouting was between good and great depending on year.

 

On the other hand, his handling of the major league was abominable. Santana for nothing, traded Garza the same year, ping-pong JJ Hardy around for no real reason, Nishioka, Wilson for Capps...

 

The "Santana for nothing" trade was going to happen no matter who was the GM. I would not doubt that the interim "retired" because of the potential fall out of this trade and on the Hunter letting go. I blame Gardenhire for burning the bridges with Garza as much as Smith for trading him. But still he got more for him (including a guy who carried his team practically singlehandedly to the 2010 postseason) than the interim got for another of Gardy's boys, Kyle Lohse. Nishioka and Wilson for Capps were bad. And I would suspect that if Gardy did not fall in love with Drewy, and insisted in having Wilson with the big team, he might still be with the Twins.

 

On the other hand, the deadline trades he made rebuilding the pen in 2009 is another reason the Twins won the division. And one of those arms came because of one of the nobodies he received for Santana. No pen arms in 2009 no division win; and not Delmon in 2010 no division win. So he needs some credit. Ryan made some idiotic moves (heck, I'd rather gamble on Nishioka than Ponson, Batista, Boone and the other washouts, including Marquis, that Ryan have paraded throughout the years) Gotta be fair.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The "Santana for nothing" trade was going to happen no matter who was the GM. I would not doubt that the interim "retired" because of the potential fall out of this trade and on the Hunter letting go. I blame Gardenhire for burning the bridges with Garza as much as Smith for trading him. But still he got more for him (including a guy who carried his team practically singlehandedly to the 2010 postseason) than the interim got for another of Gardy's boys, Kyle Lohse. Nishioka and Wilson for Capps were bad. And I would suspect that if Gardy did not fall in love with Drewy, and insisted in having Wilson with the big team, he might still be with the Twins.

 

On the other hand, the deadline trades he made rebuilding the pen in 2009 is another reason the Twins won the division. And one of those arms came because of one of the nobodies he received for Santana. No pen arms in 2009 no division win; and not Delmon in 2010 no division win. So he needs some credit. Ryan made some idiotic moves (heck, I'd rather gamble on Nishioka than Ponson, Batista, Boone and the other washouts, including Marquis, that Ryan have paraded throughout the years) Gotta be fair.

Smith had $30-40m more per year to play with than JR ever did. Ryan had a marginal budget last offseason and did a pretty good job (in the case of Willingham and Doumit, a great job) of spending that money outside of Marquis.

 

It's not fair to compare Ryan's 2002-2007 FA pickups to Smith's 2010 and later pickups. Smith had the money to buy players that didn't suck.

 

With that said, Smith did a great job before the 2010 offseason. Other than that, I dislike almost everything he did.

[TRex]

It's a little off topic (ok, a lot), but I think everyone forgets that at the time Santana was traded he had a full no-trade clause and was really a sign-and-trade ala the NBA. So what the Mets (or whomever) really got was the 'right' to give a small(ish) left-handed pitcher with a precipitously declining K-rate one of the largest and longest contracts in history for a pitcher. I think this is what really controlled what teams were willing to offer for Santana, especially the Yankees who seemed fixated on CC even a year before he became a free agent.

 

Now, I think it is much harder to defend against the argument that they could have held on to him and gotten the prospects when he signed elsewhere as a FA. I personally believe that it would have been a cancerous situation that I wouldn't want on my team, but that is hardly quantifiable!

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed, the Santana situation was almost unwillable....that said, they should have done better. Also agreed, Ryan quit rather than handle the situation that he created. I got no problem with that, if you are burned out you are burned out. But let's not pretend Ryan didn't create the situation by not taking care of it in a more timely manner. Same with Hunter.