Article: Cody's Post-Draft Top 10 Prospects

[Cody Christie]

In the aftermath of this year's MLB draft, it can be fun to reevaluate where an organization stacks up in the prospect department. For better or worse, franchises can make it or break it with their selections in the draft. It's also important for teams to be able to build from within to help manage the bottom line.

 

Minnesota's top prospect list is littered with players drafted highly over the last handful of years. Players like Jose Berrios, Nick Gordon, Tyler Jay, and Kohl Stewart have all been taken with first round picks. Ideally, these players will form the nucleus of Minnesota's next championship winning club.There were a few graduations off this list since my last list in the 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (which is on sale for 10% off). At the end of last season, Byron Buxton barely missed the rookie eligibility cut-off. Byung-Ho Park was also on my pre-season list and he has surpassed 130 at-bats. A few more of these players will likely have graduated before the end of the year but here's where the list stands in the days following the draft.

 

10. Fernando Romero, Cedar Rapids Kernels (21 years old)

Romero has been lights out since his return from Tommy John surgery. Since he didn't pitch in a professional game for over two years, this year will be crucial for his development. He needs to continue to rack up innings and show the kind of pitcher he can be. Romero has impressed so far this year and he could be a top-five Twins prospect before the conclusion of the season.

 

Ceiling: Mid-Rotation Starter

Since he missed so much game action, it is going to be crucial for him to work on his breaking ball and his command. His fastball can hit in the upper 90's but a pitcher needs more than heat to get out big league batters.

 

9. Alex Kiriloff, OF- TBD (18 years old)

It could be a long time before Kiriloff, a 2016 first-round pick, makes it to the big leagues. Minnesota will likely start him off with the GCL Twins and he could make it as high as the Elizabethton Twins this season. This was the lowest first-round pick the Twins have had in a while and this draft wasn't as deep as other years. For this reason, fans will have to be patient as they wait to see what kind of player Kiriloff can be.

Ceiling: All-Star corner outfielder

He hasn't spent much time playing in the outfield but he has the arm to handle a corner outfield position. There are a lot of tools in his tool box. It will be interesting to see what kind of power he can develop as he moves up the ladder and his body starts to mature.

 

8. J.T. Chargois, RHP- Chattanooga Lookouts, Rochester Red Wings, Minnesota Twins (25 years old)

Chargois is looking more and more like he could be the Twins closer of the future. His MLB debut was an unmitigated disaster and the Twins did him no favors by sending him right back to Rochester. Despite this chain of events, he will be back before the end of the year and I would guess that he will be pitching in some high leverage situations as soon as the 2017 season.

 

Ceiling: Shutdown back-end of the bullpen pitcher

Chargois has the stuff to be a very good relief pitcher. His biggest issue at this point is his control and that was evident in his debut. The hope would be that he returns to Rochester and continues to dominate at that level. This will give the Twins no option but to give him another look.

 

7. Kohl Stewart, RHP- Fort Myers Miracle, Chattanooga Lookouts (21 years old)

The Twins were aggressive with Stewart as he was promoted to Chattanooga as a 21-year old. His first Double-A start was a little rough but this takes nothing away from his overall potential. Last season was the first season where he compiled more than 100 innings on the mound. It would be nice for his strikeout rate to continue to rise as he moves through the ranks and that could come with more innings on the mound.

 

Ceiling: Frontline starter

Stewart is still learning the art of pitching and he bounced back nicely in his second Double-A outing. His place on this list is more of a result of the talent in front of him than his lack of talent. If he puts it all together, he could be very good and the Twins have a lot of confidence in him.

 

6. Stephen Gonsalves, RHP- Fort Myers Miracle (21 years old)

Gonsalves just keeps getting better and that might be a scary proposition to other hitters in the minor leagues. He ended last season in Fort Myers and he has made some improvements there this year. His fastball has more life and he has been working to improve his off-speed pitches. He hasn't garnered a lot of national attention but that could change if he continues to pitch well.

 

Ceiling: Frontline starter

It seems like Gonsalves is a veteran of the minors even though he is only 21-years old. He comes off like that because of his professionalism and his demeanor on the mound. This is the first time I've ranked Gonsalves higher than Stewart and he will be a top five prospect for the Twins entering next year.

 

5. Jorge Polanco, IF- Rochester Red Wings, Minnesota Twins (23 years old)

Polanco has been settling into his role with Rochester nicely as he is posting some of his best offensive numbers in years. The Twins have utilized Polanco's skill-set at various points over the last three years and it will be interesting to see where he fits into the team's long-term plans. He's been playing more second base this year and the Twins have Dozier blocking Polanco at that position.

 

Ceiling: All-Star second baseman

Minnesota needs to find a spot for Polanco for next season. This could mean in a utility type role or it could mean trading away a current starter so he can get regular at-bats. If the Twins continue to play poorly this season, it would be nice to see more of Polanco at the big league level.

 

4. Nick Gordon, SS- Fort Myers Miracle (20 years old)

Gordon is almost three years younger than the competition in the Florida State League but he's still putting up some strong numbers. He's been able to get on base over 33% of the time and he's hitting for more power this season as his OPS has jumped over 35 points. One concern this season might be his defensive miscues. He has 13 errors at shortstop this season after setting a career high with 18 errors last year.

 

Ceiling: All-star shortstop

I still believe he can stick at shortstop and he will add more power as he continues to mature. This could make him a rarity for the Twins, a shortstop produced through their farm system. He's only been moving up one level a season so he likely won't debut for another couple of seasons.

 

3. Tyler Jay, LHP- Fort Myers Miracle (22 years old)

It was tough to know what to expect from Jay this season as he was used a relief pitcher in college. He's quieted a lot of doubters with his performance so far. At the High-A level, he has been a dominant pitcher and he should make his way to Double-A at some point in the second half. Besides Romero, Jay made the biggest jump of any player on my top prospect list but most of this was because of the unknown surrounding him at the season's start.

 

Ceiling: Frontline starter

Drafting a college relief pitcher and turning him into a starter is no easy feat. There is plenty for Jay still to prove but he's on the right path and trending upwards. He could and should be the team's top overall prospect heading into next season with Kepler and Berrios likely graduating off this list.

 

2. Max Kepler, OF- Rochester Red Wings, Minnesota Twins (23 years old)

Kepler has been in the big leagues twice this season but he has yet to find his groove. After being named the MVP of the Southern League last season, Kepler made a lot of people notice his talent. He's combined to play around 50 games at levels higher than Double-A so there is still time for him to develop. Even though those numbers haven't been there yet at the big league level, he takes good at-bats and is a mature hitter. There's a good chance that he can be an above average player for years to come.

 

Ceiling: All-Star outfielder

Kepler continues to improve at the big league level and most fans probably took notice of him with his walk-off home run on Sunday afternoon. He takes very good at-bats and his walk rate is very impressive for a rookie. Last week, Seth named Kepler as his top prospect in his Midseason Top 40 list but it's about preference at this point.

 

1. Jose Berrios, RHP- Rochester Red Wings, Minnesota Twins (22 years old)

His first taste of the big leagues was a little rough but he's getting back on track for Rochester. Berrios should be a Twins rotation staple for the better part of the next decade. Control had been his calling card in recent years but he's struggled with control this season. If he can find his command, he will likely spend the second half of this season with the big league club.

 

Ceiling: Frontline starter

Minnesota's starters have been bad so it seems like only a matter of time before Berrios gets another opportunity. He's the first of a core of young pitchers that should debut in the coming years. The Twins organization is desperate for a pitcher to join the rotation and take the league by storm. Berrios has the opportunity to do this.

 

Who would you put at the top of prospect list? Should Kiriloff be ranked higher, lower, or stay right about where he is? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

I'd switch Stewart and Gonsalves and Chargois and Kiriloff and replace Romero with Felix Jorge, but otherwise, yeah, this is pretty good.

[DocBauer]

The best part of this list is 4 really nice rotation candidates, all having fine seasons, and by the second half of this season, all 4 should be at AA or higher. It doesn't mean they are pending imminent ML appearances or success, with the exception of Berrios, but it means any or all of the other 3 could be up late in 2017, or ready by 2018.

 

Just curious, considering the important nature of the position, a solid and potentially quality bat, and all the good things about his work behind the plate, how close do you place Garver to the top 10? Being a catcher should nudge him a couple extra points higher shouldn't it?

[Deduno Abides]

Good list. Pending the performance of players whose seasons haven't yet started, you nailed it, except I'd switch Polanco and Gordon. 150 wRC+ in AAA, with a 16.2% K rate >> 123 wRC+ in Hi A, with a higher K rate. It's hard to gauge fielding. Although Gordon's rep is better, Polanco has handled himself well in the field during his odd Twins-style promotions, so I assume they're even.

[Dman]

I like the list.  It's a good list but tough going for a first round pick when you start out at 9th.  Typically they start in the top 5.  Lot's of first round picks and international signer's in that top 10 so I guess that makes sense.  

 

Like others I could quibble about placement but swapping is just a matter of preference at this point.  I take it we would see the top high school catcher in the top 20?

[mikelink45]

I would have Kepler at #1.  Berrios took a step backwards and I wonder what has been the reasons for this mixed season.  I really expected him to be there now - we have nothing in our rotation that should block him.  I would have Polanco #2 and Berrios #3.  I just cannot figure out how the twins have handled Polanco, but then their handling of young players, overall, confuses me.

[Blackjack]

Nice list, I guess I should be optimistic, but the ones that have made their debuts so far - Buxton, Berrios, Chargois, Kepler - really haven't done much. Not even looking for All-Stars, just average ML players, but right now they're just suspect prospects.  When was the last time the Twins had a prospect come up and be a star?? Mauer? When was the last pitcher that came up and became a star?  Perkins?? Big gap between stars.

 

I guess it just goes to show how tough it is but its hard for me to be optimistic when even the top prospects are floundering.  And the ones below them are years away. Maybe I'm just down on the Twins right now.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Nice list, I guess I should be optimistic, but the ones that have made their debuts so far - Buxton, Berrios, Chargois, Kepler - really haven't done much. Not even looking for All-Stars, just average ML players, but right now they're just suspect prospects.  When was the last time the Twins had a prospect come up and be a star?? Mauer? When was the last pitcher that came up and became a star?  Perkins?? Big gap between stars.

 

I guess it just goes to show how tough it is but its hard for me to be optimistic when even the top prospects are floundering.  And the ones below them are years away. Maybe I'm just down on the Twins right now.

To be fair [ and if my recollection is worth a crap ] Buxton, Berrios, Chargois, Kepler were brought up because of need and not an actual judgement of their readiness for the MLB.  I think that can be said for all of the MiLB'ers that were brought up this year, with the exception of Buxton.  And that move still puzzles me because there was no backup plan in sight, except for super-sub Danny Santana.

 

Last players called up and became stars?  Mauer, hell yeah.  Perkins, eventually, after the move to bullpen.

 

I'm leary of these list and MiLB rankings, overall.  Not a criticism of those who create them.  Maybe it's just me getting over excited and calling for them to be brought up immediately.  Like Buxton.

 

 

[clutterheart]

this is as good as it gets in terms of "prospect waves"

 

Assuming that the 1st wave of hitters - Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Rosario develop into good players by 2018

Then a young 2nd wave of pitchers can flood the team in 2018 - 2019.

By 2020 we might actually win a playoff series 

 

4 years away.  Uhg.  But...at least there is hope.  

[Han Joelo]

Just curious, how close was Jorge, and/or how do you choose between he and Romero?  I liked what Bonilla had to say about Jorge recently.

[DJL44]

JT Chargois looks good but he wouldn't have been the #15 pick in this year's draft.

[Taildragger8791]

The list seems pretty agreeable except I'd have a tough time putting Kirilloff into the top ten already. His floor/ceiling spread is huge since he's a total unknown (like most players after the top 5-10 picks), being anywhere from perennial all-star to AAA-washout. He has power, doesn't offer premium defensive value, and could prove to be fatally flawed with this swing length/speed. That puts names like Arcia/ABW/Vargas/Palka/Colabello in my head. Hard for me to push that projection above guys with a floor of actually contributing at the MLB level.

[Blackjack]

 

To be fair [ and if my recollection is worth a crap ] Buxton, Berrios, Chargois, Kepler were brought up because of need and not an actual judgement of their readiness for the MLB.  I think that can be said for all of the MiLB'ers that were brought up this year, with the exception of Buxton.

 

Yes you are probably right, I heard TR talking about Chargois and his poor debut, TR admitted that he was probably rushed, that he could have used more AAA experience.

 

Speaking of Chargois, I thought it was pretty rude to send him down right away. That's how you make them into head cases. At least give him a few more appearances, let him get some bullpen experience, give him a chance to pitch when he's not so nervous, give him a chance to learn a few things. What did he learn from his one and done??  Nothing.  It will just put more pressure on him the next time he's up. 'I better perform or I'll be sent back down'.

[jimbo92107]

So long to wait..!

I wanna see a rotation of Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, Berrios, and Duffey!

I wanna see Shaggy and Burdi mowing 'em down late!

I wanna see Polanco at 2B, Gordon at SS, and Sano at 3B!

I wanna see an outfield of Grossman, Buxton, Kepler and Rosario!

Mauer and Park at 1B...

Garver and Turner at C... 

So long to wait..!

[dxpavelka]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, if half those guys hit those ceilings there should be gridlock in Minneapolis because the streets will be filled with ambulances retrieving 30,000 rubes from Target Field with cartwheel injuries.  A realistic expectation would be that 3-4 of those guys hit those ceilings and that 1-2 never even sniff the big leagues.  If the guys in between become above average big leaguers all should be well.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Yes you are probably right, I heard TR talking about Chargois and his poor debut, TR admitted that he was probably rushed, that he could have used more AAA experience.

 

Speaking of Chargois, I thought it was pretty rude to send him down right away. That's how you make them into head cases. At least give him a few more appearances, let him get some bullpen experience, give him a chance to pitch when he's not so nervous, give him a chance to learn a few things. What did he learn from his one and done??  Nothing.  It will just put more pressure on him the next time he's up. 'I better perform or I'll be sent back down'.

I think what it shows is, like many of the other call-ups, it was NOT managements intention to bring them up at this point of their development.  Emergency triggered it.  Neil Rameriz is signed, Chargois sent back to AAA.

[Blackjack]

 

I think what it shows is, like many of the other call-ups, it was NOT managements intention to bring them up at this point of their development.  Emergency triggered it.  Neil Rameriz is signed, Chargois sent back to AAA.

Rameriz has failed with two others teams, this year already, and he's more important than one of your top relief prospects??!!!!!  Sign him to a AAA contract and give Chargois at least a week. Or bring up someone else.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think what it shows is, like many of the other call-ups, it was NOT managements intention to bring them up at this point of their development.  Emergency triggered it.  Neil Rameriz is signed, Chargois sent back to AAA.

 

Ryan is in charge. If he didn't want Chargois up, he should not have brought him up. If there are 40 man issues, well, that's on Ryan. And, there is chaffe....they could have found a better way to handle this.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think what it shows is, like many of the other call-ups, it was NOT managements intention to bring them up at this point of their development. Emergency triggered it. Neil Rameriz is signed, Chargois sent back to AAA.

What was the emergency? Alex Meyer hasn't pitched in over 40 days and could easily go on the 60 day DL at this point.

 

Edit: technically a minor league player can't go on the 60 day DL, but I am pretty sure the Twins could rescind their option on Meyer and retroactively put him on the MLB DL, since he hasn't played since his MLB stint. It has been done before by other organizations.

Edited June 14, 2016 by spycake

[Mike Sixel]

 

What was the emergency? Alex Meyer hasn't pitched in over 40 days and could easily go on the 60 day DL at this point.

Edit: technically a minor league player can't go on the 60 day DL, but I am pretty sure the Twins could rescind their option on Meyer and retroactively put him on the MLB DL, since he hasn't played since his MLB stint. It has been done before by other organizations.

 

And, since he was likely hurt in MN, would be the right thing to do.

[HitInAPinch]

 

What was the emergency? Alex Meyer hasn't pitched in over 40 days and could easily go on the 60 day DL at this point.

Edit: technically a minor league player can't go on the 60 day DL, but I am pretty sure the Twins could rescind their option on Meyer and retroactively put him on the MLB DL, since he hasn't played since his MLB stint. It has been done before by other organizations.

I'm not really following the Meyer tie in, but the Twins have been burning through the bullpen due to starting pitcher's injury or ineffectiveness.  So, it did become an "emergency" to add a relief pitcher.  Too bad Ramirez couldn't get here sooner to save Chargois a trip.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not really following the Meyer tie in, but the Twins have been burning through the bullpen due to starting pitcher's injury or ineffectiveness. So, it did become an "emergency" to add a relief pitcher. Too bad Ramirez couldn't get here sooner to save Chargois a trip.

The Meyer tie-in is that there was no 40 man roster crunch. They could have promoted any other AAA pitcher over Chargois if they so desired.

[HitInAPinch]

 

The Meyer tie-in is that there was no 40 man roster crunch. They could have promoted any other AAA pitcher over Chargois if they so desired.

Thanks for the explanation.  I confess, I don't often look a 40 man roster implications.

[Cody Christie]

 

Good list. Pending the performance of players whose seasons haven't yet started, you nailed it, except I'd switch Polanco and Gordon. 150 wRC+ in AAA, with a 16.2% K rate >> 123 wRC+ in Hi A, with a higher K rate. It's hard to gauge fielding. Although Gordon's rep is better, Polanco has handled himself well in the field during his odd Twins-style promotions, so I assume they're even.

I still believe Gordon is a better prospect and he has a chance to stick at shortstop. Polanco is a second baseman. 

[Cody Christie]

 

I'd switch Stewart and Gonsalves and Chargois and Kiriloff and replace Romero with Felix Jorge, but otherwise, yeah, this is pretty good.

I love Jorge and have been driving his bandwagon for a few years. Romero just has better stuff at this point and a little more upside. Jorge would have been 11 on my list.

[Cody Christie]

 

I like the list.  It's a good list but tough going for a first round pick when you start out at 9th.  Typically they start in the top 5.  Lot's of first round picks and international signer's in that top 10 so I guess that makes sense.  

 

Like others I could quibble about placement but swapping is just a matter of preference at this point.  I take it we would see the top high school catcher in the top 20?

There's still a lot of talent above this year's first round pick. It's also the first time the Twins haven't had a pick in the top-10 for a few years. He has some work to do in the minors but he will have the opportunity to move up prospect lists quickly if he shows he is the type of hitter the Twins hope he can be.

[Cody Christie]

 

I would have Kepler at #1.  Berrios took a step backwards and I wonder what has been the reasons for this mixed season.  I really expected him to be there now - we have nothing in our rotation that should block him.  I would have Polanco #2 and Berrios #3.  I just cannot figure out how the twins have handled Polanco, but then their handling of young players, overall, confuses me.

I agree with their handling of Polanco. He has been back and forth between the minors and the big leagues a lot. For a top prospect, it would be nice for him to be up so the Twins can see what they have in him. There also really isn't a place for him at this time unless an injury would take out the likes of Dozier, Nunez, or Escobar. 

[Cody Christie]

 

Just curious, how close was Jorge, and/or how do you choose between he and Romero?  I liked what Bonilla had to say about Jorge recently.

Jorge would have been just off my list at number 11

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree with their handling of Polanco. He has been back and forth between the minors and the big leagues a lot. For a top prospect, it would be nice for him to be up so the Twins can see what they have in him. There also really isn't a place for him at this time unless an injury would take out the likes of Dozier, Nunez, or Escobar. 

 

You agree that running out of options on a player w/o ever even getting 100 ABs in the majors is a good way to handle a player that is considered a legit prospect? Or, you agree that leaving him in AAA right now is a good idea?

[Cody Christie]

 

JT Chargois looks good but he wouldn't have been the #15 pick in this year's draft.

Kirilloff has a lot to prove and Chargois has dominated the top two levels of the minors. Chargois will be an important part of the Twins bullpen as soon as next year. There's a chance that Kirilloff becomes an All-Star and there's also a chance that he never makes