Article: Twins Select OF Alex Kirilloff with 15th Overall Pick

[Seth Stohs]

 

THis will be the most outrageous statement of the night:

 

I think the TWins should move Kirollof up to the big leagues almost immediately.  Dump Plouffe, move Sano to 3B, and put him in RF.  He is physically mature, has a mature approach at the plate, is a good defender with a plus arm.  I bet you he would not have the lowest OPS of the main players.  

 

Yup... Yup... that is a bit outrageous... I think they're being aggressive in pushing him to Elizabethton right away. Ha!

[Seth Stohs]

I like college arms like Dunn but frankly, the thing the Twins have been good at for a couple of decades is developing toolsy outfieielders. If they had Kirilloff ahead of Dunn on their BPA board (and clearly they did), then it's absolutely the right pick...

 

 

Of course, we won't really know if it was the "right" pick for 10 years.

[d-mac]

Kurt Suzuki is on the team................  and there is a lot more competition for terrible OPS.

 

Good players can be developed at the MLB level.  Most of the Twins WS team was. If they aint good, then they can never be developed.  You can find that out right away too.  

 

If the Twins had a better prospect as an alternative then that would be a different story.  But the fact is, they really don't.  THey will plug some mediocrity in the lineup instead.

 

Oh you're serious. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

[Deduno Abides]

Just to clarify, are you saying Trout had an OPS of .672 in 1300 minor league PAs? Or are you talking about his 40 game intro to the majors before becoming ROY the following season and finishing 2nd for MVP?

Sorry, Jimmer, his .672 OPS was in his first abbreviated MLB season, after 1,300 minor league PAs. The discussion had to do with Kiriloff's immediate readiness for the show, and I am suggesting that even KG, Jr. and Mike Trout were not fully baked out of high school.

[TheLeviathan]

This second round catcher seems to have a lot to like, am I missing something or does he seem like really solid value?

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

 

Of course, we won't really know if it was the "right" pick for 10 years.

 

Didn't you read the comments?  The usual suspects already know it was a wasted pick.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Didn't you read the comments?  The usual suspects already know it was a wasted pick.

 

 

Haha... of course!

[jsteve96]

 

THis will be the most outrageous statement of the night:

 

I think the TWins should move Kirollof up to the big leagues almost immediately.  Dump Plouffe, move Sano to 3B, and put him in RF.  He is physically mature, has a mature approach at the plate, is a good defender with a plus arm.  I bet you he would not have the lowest OPS of the main players.  

he would bat below .100 guaranteed 

[jsteve96]

 

The Senators were terrible, no doubt, but they had Sievers in LF and Lemon in RF, with Eddie Yost at 3B.  And Harmon never played a season completely in the minors in his entire career.  He obviously was not allowed to go to the minors at all as a bonus baby.  Regardless, if Harmon was a player in the modern Twins organization he would have made the majors at 24 or 25, putzing him along the minor league trying to find his position and cut down on his strikeouts. 

do you realize how much more and better competition there is now a days? there are 8 different minor league levels. when Harmon played how many were there? 1, 2?

[Brandon Warne]

 

So, it is a stretch to bring up a 18 year old player, but it has been done.  When Robin Yount was brought up to the major leagues at the age of 18, Joe Garioggila joked that they had to protect him from the veterans swearing around him.  Yount was pretty good I guess.

 

Hey kid I know we drafted you yesterday and you still have two high school games left, but if you can be a future Hall of Famer we'll throw you in there right away. 

[Pius Jefferson]

 

Yeah, we are in a huge need for outfielders. LOL.
Maybe he ends up at first.

 

This franchise is in a huge need for everything. 

[GM64]

"hoards" of evaluators? Shows even Baseball America needs better editors.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm always in favor of drafting hitters in favor of pitchers in the first. So I'm on board in principle!

"On board in principle!" is an outstanding rallying cry.

 

For example: "We can fix this thing."

I'm onboard in principle!

 

It pithy, versatile, and catchy. Plus you really sold it. Nice work!

[Drew]

 

Like I said, good players can be developed in the major leagues.  Bad players can look great in the minors and then never be able to play at the highest level. 

 

THe problem with the Twins is that they will not commit to being a developmental team at the major league level.

 

For the past 5 years they have mostly trotted out replacement level players and have lost 90+ games each season with the fluke season last year.  They show ZERO commitment to their young prospects like Berrios, Kepler, Buxton mostly, Rosario, Polanco, bouncing them up and down without really giving them a chance to fully adjust. 

 

They also are too timid in bringing up players like Chargois who demonstrate they have mastered the minor league levels. 

 

You need patience to let these guys play. They will strike out and commit errors and walk batters when that is the last thing you want them to do.  THEY WILL LOSE BALL GAMES.  But the good players will develop and the bad players will show the obvious.  

 

So, it is a stretch to bring up a 18 year old player, but it has been done.  When Robin Yount was brought up to the major leagues at the age of 18, Joe Garioggila joked that they had to protect him from the veterans swearing around him.  Yount was pretty good I guess.

 

David Clyde just felt a great disturbance in the force. I don't mean to be rude but this one time when we were kids my little sister mixed roast beef and cheese with her blueberry yogurt. Until today that was the worst idea I'd come across. 

[tobi0040]

Didn't you read the comments?  The usual suspects already know it was a wasted pick.

I am guessing this was partially aimed at me.

 

I don’t think the pick was “wasted”. We won’t know that for years. But I am not excited about another prep outfielder.

 

To me it is about the cost/availability of fielding a position. You have free agency, the draft, trades, and international free agents. We currently have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, potentially Sano, Wade, Walker, and Harrison in our system. Now we have just added a first round pick and another in the 2nd or 3rd. And this is a position where you can go into the free agent market and find a league average player without a huge financial commitment. The last off-season we saw Dexter Fowler and Denard Span sign for 1/13 and 3/33. Colby Rasmus the previous year signed for a year and $7m. If this was a guy everyone had ranked top five and he fell to 15 that would be one thing. But most rankings I saw had him in the 15-20 range so that is not the case.

 

Starting pitching is a much bigger need and will really always be. To fill out a rotation, we need all the highly touted guys in our system to pan out. That isn’t going to happen and dipping into the FA market to find starters is not what you want to be doing (see Nolasco, Ervin, Pelfrey, etc.). That is a position where sub league average pitchers sign 4+ year deals at 12-15m a year and they are usually 30+ at the time.

 

The same can be said about relief pitching. The prices have gone up, but they still pale in comparison to that of a starting pitcher, both in total commitment and years. But we have used a ton of picks in rounds 1-5 on relievers.

[drivlikejehu]

I just don't see how you can get worked up about position when almost none of the Twins picks ever pan out. People talk about the Twins having a surplus before the season, and within weeks its a deficit.

[tobi0040]

I just don't see how you can get worked up about position when almost none of the Twins picks ever pan out. People talk about the Twins having a surplus before the season, and within weeks its a deficit.

It is less about our picks panning out and more about supply and demand within the entire league.

 

And you need to field three outfielders and conservatively 6-7 starting pitchers each year.

Edited June 10, 2016 by tobi0040

[drivlikejehu]

 

It is less about our picks panning out and more about supply and demand within the entire league.

And you need to field three outfielders and conservatively 6-7 starting pitchers each year.

 

The Twins have had a lot of draft years where they get literally nothing, out of the entire draft. So while I see what you're saying in terms of position scarcity, step one would just be to actually draft and develop big league talent. I'd rather have a decent outfielder than a pitcher that flames out in A-ball, not that the Twins have had success with position player or pitchers.

[mlhouse]

 

David Clyde just felt a great disturbance in the force. I don't mean to be rude but this one time when we were kids my little sister mixed roast beef and cheese with her blueberry yogurt. Until today that was the worst idea I'd come across. 

 

 

Who was the 3rd pick in that draft?  He was in the major league lineup at 18 too.

 

TO the person talking about Killebrew, I didn't bring him up.  But his minor league experience was minimal.

 

And, of course the Twins will never bring him up so quickly.  They will start him is Rookie - league in Ft Myers.  Then extended spring training and then to Elizabethrown.  When he is 20 he might just break camp with Cedar Rapdids.  Then one step at a time until he is 23-24 years old, struggles, back down, up and down.....

 

But here is the real issue:  How well has the Twins cautious system worked out?  Do our prospects come to the major leagues well prepared to play?  Top 5 minor league prospects Buxton and Sano, were they ready? Rosario, Vargas, Arcia, Kepler?

 

 The pitching prospects have not been any different either.  If you look at our starting staff, Gibson, Duffey, and Dean are the only internally developed players. Gibson is essentially established but Duff and Dean are a ways from it.  They are 25 and 27 years old respectivelly, not young prospects.

 

The incremental approach is what you do when you have a team that is playing well.  This team is not, and has not.  THe losses keep piling on but we are playing 30+ year old players all across the board.  What is the value in that?

 

Get the players up.  There is no reason to play Kurt Suzuki.  Release him and pay him off.  Put Mitch Garver in his spot.  

 

Trade Plouffe for next to nothing.  Dozier too.  Move in Polanco, Kepler, and Sano to 3B.  IF we are going to lose 110 games lets get the development we need from it.  

[d-mac]

 

I am guessing this was partially aimed at me.

I don’t think the pick was “wasted”. We won’t know that for years. But I am not excited about another prep outfielder.

To me it is about the cost/availability of fielding a position. You have free agency, the draft, trades, and international free agents. We currently have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, potentially Sano, Wade, Walker, and Harrison in our system. Now we have just added a first round pick and another in the 2nd or 3rd. And this is a position where you can go into the free agent market and find a league average player without a huge financial commitment. The last off-season we saw Dexter Fowler and Denard Span sign for 1/13 and 3/33. Colby Rasmus the previous year signed for a year and $7m. If this was a guy everyone had ranked top five and he fell to 15 that would be one thing. But most rankings I saw had him in the 15-20 range so that is not the case.

Starting pitching is a much bigger need and will really always be. To fill out a rotation, we need all the highly touted guys in our system to pan out. That isn’t going to happen and dipping into the FA market to find starters is not what you want to be doing (see Nolasco, Ervin, Pelfrey, etc.). That is a position where sub league average pitchers sign 4+ year deals at 12-15m a year and they are usually 30+ at the time.

The same can be said about relief pitching. The prices have gone up, but they still pale in comparison to that of a starting pitcher, both in total commitment and years. But we have used a ton of picks in rounds 1-5 on relievers.

 

I can't argue with any of this. 

[tobi0040]

Who was the 3rd pick in that draft?  He was in the major league lineup at 18 too.

 

TO the person talking about Killebrew, I didn't bring him up.  But his minor league experience was minimal.

 

And, of course the Twins will never bring him up so quickly.  They will start him is Rookie - league in Ft Myers.  Then extended spring training and then to Elizabethrown.  When he is 20 he might just break camp with Cedar Rapdids.  Then one step at a time until he is 23-24 years old, struggles, back down, up and down.....

 

But here is the real issue:  How well has the Twins cautious system worked out?  Do our prospects come to the major leagues well prepared to play?  Top 5 minor league prospects Buxton and Sano, were they ready? Rosario, Vargas, Arcia, Kepler?

 

 The pitching prospects have not been any different either.  If you look at our starting staff, Gibson, Duffey, and Dean are the only internally developed players. Gibson is essentially established but Duff and Dean are a ways from it.  They are 25 and 27 years old respectivelly, not young prospects.

 

The incremental approach is what you do when you have a team that is playing well.  This team is not, and has not.  THe losses keep piling on but we are playing 30+ year old players all across the board.  What is the value in that?

 

Get the players up.  There is no reason to play Kurt Suzuki.  Release him and pay him off.  Put Mitch Garver in his spot.  

 

Trade Plouffe for next to nothing.  Dozier too.  Move in Polanco, Kepler, and Sano to 3B.  IF we are going to lose 110 games lets get the development we need from it.

These changes would be disasterous. We may lose 100 games or more.

[DocBauer]

There is nothing wrong with this pick. He was rated to go right about where he did, and is clearly rated a 1st rounder by everyone. I get that some aren't enamored by a prep OF selection, or claim we have too many already. I don't see how that is true. First, you need at least 4 OF at every level. Second, guys wash out and don't make it for one reason or another. Third, you can't simply not take an OF for rookie ball and development, 4-5 years away from the majors, simply because it seems you're crowded at the top NOW

 

There were actually a couple pitchers I was more excited about, but I can't complain about this pick, even if it doesn't push my "thrill" button fully. I think what bothers some people is just the whole "tools OF" comment because at this point it just sounds redundant.

[DocBauer]

There is nothing wrong with this pick. He was rated to go right about where he did, and is clearly rated a 1st rounder by everyone. I get that some aren't enamored by a prep OF selection, or claim we have too many already. I don't see how that is true. First, you need at least 4 OF at every level. Second, guys wash out and don't make it for one reason or another. Third, you can't simply not take an OF for rookie ball and development, 4-5 years away from the majors, simply because it seems you're crowded at the top NOW

 

There were actually a couple pitchers I was more excited about, but I can't complain about this pick, even if it doesn't push my "thrill" button fully. I think what bothers some people is just the whole "tools OF" comment because at this point it just sounds redundant.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I am guessing this was partially aimed at me.

I don’t think the pick was “wasted”. We won’t know that for years. But I am not excited about another prep outfielder.

To me it is about the cost/availability of fielding a position. You have free agency, the draft, trades, and international free agents. We currently have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, potentially Sano, Wade, Walker, and Harrison in our system. Now we have just added a first round pick and another in the 2nd or 3rd. And this is a position where you can go into the free agent market and find a league average player without a huge financial commitment. The last off-season we saw Dexter Fowler and Denard Span sign for 1/13 and 3/33. Colby Rasmus the previous year signed for a year and $7m. If this was a guy everyone had ranked top five and he fell to 15 that would be one thing. But most rankings I saw had him in the 15-20 range so that is not the case.

Starting pitching is a much bigger need and will really always be. To fill out a rotation, we need all the highly touted guys in our system to pan out. That isn’t going to happen and dipping into the FA market to find starters is not what you want to be doing (see Nolasco, Ervin, Pelfrey, etc.). That is a position where sub league average pitchers sign 4+ year deals at 12-15m a year and they are usually 30+ at the time.

The same can be said about relief pitching. The prices have gone up, but they still pale in comparison to that of a starting pitcher, both in total commitment and years. But we have used a ton of picks in rounds 1-5 on relievers.

 

You can draft for need and end up with Mark Appel. You can draft best available, and get Byron Buxton, who made the big leagues as a high school pick when Appel was still at DOUBLE-A.

[ALessKosherScott]

Trying to read this thread made my head hurt. Or rhyme too much.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I am guessing this was partially aimed at me.

I don’t think the pick was “wasted”. We won’t know that for years. But I am not excited about another prep outfielder.

To me it is about the cost/availability of fielding a position. You have free agency, the draft, trades, and international free agents. We currently have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, potentially Sano, Wade, Walker, and Harrison in our system. Now we have just added a first round pick and another in the 2nd or 3rd. And this is a position where you can go into the free agent market and find a league average player without a huge financial commitment. The last off-season we saw Dexter Fowler and Denard Span sign for 1/13 and 3/33. Colby Rasmus the previous year signed for a year and $7m. If this was a guy everyone had ranked top five and he fell to 15 that would be one thing. But most rankings I saw had him in the 15-20 range so that is not the case.

Starting pitching is a much bigger need and will really always be. To fill out a rotation, we need all the highly touted guys in our system to pan out. That isn’t going to happen and dipping into the FA market to find starters is not what you want to be doing (see Nolasco, Ervin, Pelfrey, etc.). That is a position where sub league average pitchers sign 4+ year deals at 12-15m a year and they are usually 30+ at the time.

The same can be said about relief pitching. The prices have gone up, but they still pale in comparison to that of a starting pitcher, both in total commitment and years. But we have used a ton of picks in rounds 1-5 on relievers.

 

The kid is in high school.  He won't be sniffing a major league roster for at least four years, and of the starting pitching available, you have higher floor quick to rise college guys with a low ceiling or higher ceiling slow to rise high school guys.  The MLB draft rarely has a guy that can solve a team's need within the year.  If they did, that guy usually goes in the top 5 picks. 

[bluechipper]

 

To me it is about the cost/availability of fielding a position. You have free agency, the draft, trades, and international free agents. We currently have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, potentially Sano, Wade, Walker, and Harrison in our system. Now we have just added a first round pick and another in the 2nd or 3rd. And this is a position where you can go into the free agent market and find a league average player without a huge financial commitment. The last off-season we saw Dexter Fowler and Denard Span sign for 1/13 and 3/33. 

So basically Buxton and Kepler? Having 2 good outfielders in the system is what you're worried about? Kiriloff is going to be in the minor leagues for at least 4 years anyways. Take the BPA.

[by jiminy]

I think it's a fair point to evaluate picks based on positional availability on the open market. And without looking at any data it does sound right that decent corner outfielders are the easiest guys to pick up without breaking the bank. So it's fair to argue that top picks should be spent on positions of scarcity, or positions of extremely high price on the open market.

 

All that said, it does not necessarily mean you should draft starting pitchers in the first round. I agree top starting pitchers are the hardest thing to buy on the open market. But:

 

1) TOP corner outfielders are really expensive too. Yes you could buy Denard Span. But you could not buy Giancarlo Stanton.

 

2) Starting pitchers may have the highest reward but also the highest risk. Would you rather have a pretty good chance at a pretty good outfielder, or a very, very low chance at a very, very good starting pitcher? You could make a case for either, but also make a case that either makes sense.

 

3) Another variable you have to take into account is the dropoff by round based on position. It could be that starting pitching prospects, once you get past the elite few like Strassburg, don't tend to pan out at a significantly different rate based on the round they were drafted, and hitters do. I don't know this, but I wouldn't assume it's all the same. And it does fit what I read anecdotally: pitchers are all a long shot. So why waste a high pick on someone in round 1 who doesn't have a significantly better chance of making it than someone from round 3, if the hitting prospects drop off much more quickly?

 

4) You are never really choosing between positions in the abstract, you are choosing among a PARTICULAR set of pitchers and a PARTICULAR set of hitters. Certainly you should take positional scarcity into account -- which it looks like the Twins did by prioritizing the catcher position -- but ultimately you have to pick the player you think is better, or has a better chance of becoming better, regardless of positions.

 

The Twins were reported before the draft to be prioritizing starting pitchers and catchers. The fact that they chose a hitter doesn't mean that wasn't true. It just means they weren't wowed by any of the pitchers available at 15 enough to pass on a hitter they liked better.  I have no doubt there were several pitchers they ranked higher, who they would have chosen if they were available. But they were gone.

 

If they picked by position alone, passing on a better prospect out of some slavish dedication to drafting by position, we'd all be justifiably furious. At some point, you have to trust your scouts. And we have no choice but to trust them too, and hope they're right.

 

Basically, all I'm saying is, one can agree with every one of your points -- and personally I do -- and still choose an outfielder because there are other variables involved, too. Position is just one variable among many. And it's NOT the most important one. Talent is.

 

[by jiminy]

Regarding their prioritizing of relief pitchers, on the face of it, it does seem odd. But it could be justifiable if they think the reliever has a much, much better chance of panning out than the available starter -- modest risk, modest reward often beats low risk, high reward. (And of course some relievers actually might make it as starters, like Jay, though I agree that's rare.)

 

They also might just value relievers more than we do. Perhaps you're right and they're wrong. Or perhaps they're right. KC convinced me that a shutdown bullpen can cover  a multitude of sins in the starting rotation, and at a much lower cost. Yes you can get relievers like Jepsen cheaply, but it's not so easy to buy the Royals' bullpen on the open market. If three of the 500 relievers they drafted in the past few years reach that level of success, those drafts will have been worth it.

[Thrylos]

The only good I see in this pick is that they can actually trade him to the Pirates in a year or so (both him and his father have a lot of Pirates connections) and get somebody back who can help them.

 

That's about it.

 

More baggage than talent, for my liking, plus plays a position (cOF/1B) that the Twins already have better alternatives at every level.