Article: Twins Select OF Alex Kirilloff with 15th Overall Pick

[bluechipper]

 

The only good I see in this pick is that they can actually trade him to the Pirates in a year or so (both him and his father have a lot of Pirates connections) and get somebody back who can help them.

 

That's about it.

 

More baggage than talent, for my liking, plus plays a position (cOF/1B) that the Twins already have better alternatives at every level.

Baggage?

 

The Twins low minor hitting talent is not very good right now.

[Thrylos]

 

Baggage?

 

The Twins low minor hitting talent is not very good right now.

 

I happen to like Lewin Diaz, Amaurys Minier, Jean Carlos Arias, Jermaine Palacios, LaMonte Wade, Trey Cabbage as cOF/1B types more than him.   (Arias could be a CF, we shall see; I include Palacios, because I think that he will end up there.)

 

And, yes, he has some real baggage, IMHO more than the Puerto Rican kid who doped...

 

Edited June 10, 2016 by Thrylos

[tobi0040]

You can draft for need and end up with Mark Appel. You can draft best available, and get Byron Buxton, who made the big leagues as a high school pick when Appel was still at DOUBLE-A.

Appel was not drafted #1 because of need. He was assumed to be the best player available. Some thought he would have made the major leagues that same year.

 

The Appel equals need and Buxton equals best player is using hindsight to make a point. But I am not sure Buxton goes #2 in a re-draft. Correa goes #1 and you have guys like Michael Wacha, Addison Russell, Gausman, Giolito, and Stroman in round 1.

 

I think the Twins scouts are absolutely enamored with athletic outfielders and use the BPA mantra as an excuse to take them. With our 18 first round picks since 2002, six of them have been prep OF (Span, Hicks, Revere, Parmelee, Buxton, and Kiriloff). Despite the kudos the Twins keep getting for developing high school outfielders, none have made an all-star game. Hicks, Revere, and Parmelee have made the show. But I am not sure a CF with an OPS of .644 (Hicks) , or a corner OF at .669 (Revere) and .717 (Parmelee) are really feathers in our cap. Span has had a good career with 26 WAR spread across 9 seasons. But the other three have basically been replacement players. Hicks has 2.2 WAR across four seasons. Parmelee is negative in four seasons. And Revere has 6 WAR over 6 seasons. And we have literally invested 1,000’s of MLB at bats in these guys because we are emotionally tied to them and wanted them to succeed. Really bizarre given we could have signed better players without a huge financial commitment.

 

But here is the biggest issue I have. You need starting pitching to win and the draft is really the only realistic avenue for the Twins to acquire that talent in a sustainable manner over any period of time. The same is almost true at the catcher position (whereas OF are a dime a dozen in FA). Catchers rarely hit free agency and the Twins are never going to pay a guy like Brian McCann $85m over five years or Max Scherzer $180m.

 

So I guess the flip side of BPA at all costs is, if your turn comes up ten years in a row and a HS OF is the top on your board each year, what is the plan to acquire five starting pitchers and a catcher? The old we can trade them later sounds good, but how often has that happened? I mean Span, Revere, and Hicks for Murphy, Meyer, and May kind of goes to show you that hasn't really worked out for us. We have moved three of them for one potential starter, who is in the bullpen.

Edited June 10, 2016 by tobi0040

[tobi0040]

So basically Buxton and Kepler? Having 2 good outfielders in the system is what you're worried about? Kiriloff is going to be in the minor leagues for at least 4 years anyways. Take the BPA.

I guess I wasn't clear enough. If you only have two OF, you can sign Denard Span on a 3 year, $33m deal to make the OF complete. He has averaged 2.8 WAR per season over his career. He isn't Giancarlo Stanton, but he is well above an average player.

 

If you only have 3-4 starting pitchers, the cost to acquire an equally good SP is in another ballpark, one that we don't have tickets for.

Edited June 10, 2016 by tobi0040

[Brandon Warne]

 

Appel was not drafted #1 because of need. He was assumed to be the best player available. Some thought he would have made the major leagues that same year.

The Appel equals need and Buxton equals best player is using hindsight to make a point. But I am not sure Buxton goes #2 in a re-draft. Correa goes #1 and you have guys like Michael Wacha, Addison Russell, Gausman, Giolito, and Stroman in round 1.

I think the Twins scouts are absolutely enamored with athletic outfielders and use the BPA mantra as an excuse to take them. With our 18 first round picks since 2002, six of them have been prep OF (Span, Hicks, Revere, Parmelee, Buxton, and Kiriloff). Despite the kudos the Twins keep getting for developing high school outfielders, none have made an all-star game. Hicks, Revere, and Parmelee have made the show. But I am not sure a CF with an OPS of .644 (Hicks) , or a corner OF at .669 (Revere) and .717 (Parmelee) are really feathers in our cap. Span has had a good career with 26 WAR spread across 9 seasons. But the other three have basically been replacement players. Hicks has 2.2 WAR across four seasons. Parmelee is negative in four seasons. And Revere has 6 WAR over 6 seasons. And we have literally invested 1,000’s of MLB at bats in these guys because we are emotionally tied to them and wanted them to succeed. Really bizarre given we could have signed better players without a huge financial commitment.

But here is the biggest issue I have. You need starting pitching to win and the draft is really the only realistic avenue for the Twins to acquire that talent in a sustainable manner over any period of time. The same is almost true at the catcher position (whereas OF are a dime a dozen in FA). Catchers rarely hit free agency and the Twins are never going to pay a guy like Brian McCann $85m over five years or Max Scherzer $180m.

So I guess the flip side of BPA at all costs is, if your turn comes up ten years in a row and a HS OF is the top on your board each year, what is the plan to acquire five starting pitchers and a catcher? The old we can trade them later sounds good, but how often has that happened? I mean Span, Revere, and Hicks for Murphy, Meyer, and May kind of goes to show you that hasn't really worked out for us. We have moved three of them for one potential starter, who is in the bullpen.

 

Appel didn't go No. 1 the year Buxton went, either. I'm saying the Twins could have drafted for need (Appel, who went 8th) or went best available, which worked out better for them.

[mlhouse]

 

These changes would be disasterous. We may lose 100 games or more.

 

Who cares.  We already are on pace for 110 losses this season. So what has more value to the long term prospects of the team?  A 110 loss year where we get most of the prospects up and evaluated or a 110 loss year playing 32 year old Kurt Suzuki, 31 year old Kevin Jepsen amongst other mediocre at best veterans????

 

Get Mitch Garver AND Stuart Turner up to the major leagues.  Release Suzuki.  

 

Get JT Chargois up to be the closer and move Jepsen down to setup role, trade him, or release him.

 

Put the potential OF together of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and let Grossman try to stay at the 4th OF.

 

Move Sano to 3B trade or release Plouffe.  Let Polanco play most every day as the utility guy.  

 

Get Berrios into the starting rotation.  Keep Dean and Duffey there.  Try to move Santana or Hughes.  Release Nolansco.  Give Taylor Rodgers a starting slot until Gibson comes back.

 

In the bullpen get rid of anyone over 28 years of age and give their spot to Alex Meyer and others. 

 

The organization should set a 21 year MLB debut target for their HS draftees and 23/24 for their college draftees.  Some prospects should be rushed faster than that.  I have said they should start Kirilloff at the MLB level.  It wont happen, but they should follow what the Mets did with Carlos Gomez:  18 year old both rookie levels.  Age 19 full season at A level. Age 20  full season at AA.  Age 21 AAA and major league debut with 139 PA.  He was traded to Minnesota the next season.

Edited June 10, 2016 by mlhouse

[tobi0040]

Who cares. We already are on pace for 110 losses this season. So what has more value to the long term prospects of the team? A 110 loss year where we get most of the prospects up and evaluated or a 110 loss year playing 32 year old Kurt Suzuki, 31 year old Kevin Jepsen amongst other mediocre at best veterans????

 

Get Mitch Garver AND Stuart Turner up to the major leagues. Release Suzuki.

 

Get JT Chargois up to be the closer and move Jepsen down to setup role, trade him, or release him.

 

Put the potential OF together of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and let Grossman try to stay at the 4th OF.

 

Move Sano to 3B trade or release Plouffe. Let Polanco play most every day as the utility guy.

 

Get Berrios into the starting rotation. Keep Dean and Duffey there. Try to move Santana or Hughes. Release Nolansco. Give Taylor Rodgers a starting slot until Gibson comes back.

 

In the bullpen get rid of anyone over 28 years of age and give their spot to Alex Meyer and others.

 

The organization should set a 21 year MLB debut target for their HS draftees and 23/24 for their college draftees. Some prospects should be rushed faster than that. I have said they should start Kirilloff at the MLB level. It wont happen, but they should follow what the Mets did with Carlos Gomez: 18 year old both rookie levels. Age 19 full season at A level. Age 20 full season at AA. Age 21 AAA and major league debut with 139 PA. He was traded to Minnesota the next season.

I was being 100 percent sarcastic

[Thrylos]

 

Appel didn't go No. 1 the year Buxton went, either. I'm saying the Twins could have drafted for need (Appel, who went 8th) or went best available, which worked out better for them.

 

Appel is one example of pitchers that could have fulfilled the Twins' need. Giolito (the best pitcher available in that draft, and the one I wish the Twins took), Wacha, Stroman, Gausman are others.  

 

Can you say that the Twins would have been better off last season with Buxton over (let's say) Wacha?  I seriously doubt.  If they had Wacha they could have been in the post season.

 

That draft is too recent to reach conclusions.  Give it 10 years or so.  Up until 2006, Prior was clearly a better pick than Mauer in the 2001 draft...

Edited June 10, 2016 by Thrylos

[mlhouse]

 

I was being 100 percent sarcastic

 

 

Ok....sorry.  

[gunnarthor]

 

Appel was not drafted #1 because of need. He was assumed to be the best player available. Some thought he would have made the major leagues that same year.

The Appel equals need and Buxton equals best player is using hindsight to make a point. But I am not sure Buxton goes #2 in a re-draft. Correa goes #1 and you have guys like Michael Wacha, Addison Russell, Gausman, Giolito, and Stroman in round 1.

I think the Twins scouts are absolutely enamored with athletic outfielders and use the BPA mantra as an excuse to take them. With our 18 first round picks since 2002, six of them have been prep OF (Span, Hicks, Revere, Parmelee, Buxton, and Kiriloff). Despite the kudos the Twins keep getting for developing high school outfielders, none have made an all-star game. Hicks, Revere, and Parmelee have made the show. But I am not sure a CF with an OPS of .644 (Hicks) , or a corner OF at .669 (Revere) and .717 (Parmelee) are really feathers in our cap. Span has had a good career with 26 WAR spread across 9 seasons. But the other three have basically been replacement players. Hicks has 2.2 WAR across four seasons. Parmelee is negative in four seasons. And Revere has 6 WAR over 6 seasons. And we have literally invested 1,000’s of MLB at bats in these guys because we are emotionally tied to them and wanted them to succeed. Really bizarre given we could have signed better players without a huge financial commitment.

But here is the biggest issue I have. You need starting pitching to win and the draft is really the only realistic avenue for the Twins to acquire that talent in a sustainable manner over any period of time. The same is almost true at the catcher position (whereas OF are a dime a dozen in FA). Catchers rarely hit free agency and the Twins are never going to pay a guy like Brian McCann $85m over five years or Max Scherzer $180m.

So I guess the flip side of BPA at all costs is, if your turn comes up ten years in a row and a HS OF is the top on your board each year, what is the plan to acquire five starting pitchers and a catcher? The old we can trade them later sounds good, but how often has that happened? I mean Span, Revere, and Hicks for Murphy, Meyer, and May kind of goes to show you that hasn't really worked out for us. We have moved three of them for one potential starter, who is in the bullpen.

Since 2002, the Twins have had 27 first round picks. 

6 HS OF

5 HS IF

5 HS Pitchers

0 College OF

1 College IF

10 College pitchers

 

I think it's a bit of a stretch to say the Twins only draft HS OFers.  They generally don't draft college bats (to Mike's chagrin) but mix it up pretty well with the other spots (and that's not looking at other rounds).  As everyone else has said, drafting for need is a bad idea.  Get the BPA.

[tobi0040]

Since 2002, the Twins have had 27 first round picks.

6 HS OF

5 HS IF

5 HS Pitchers

0 College OF

1 College IF

10 College pitchers

 

I think it's a bit of a stretch to say the Twins only draft HS OFers. They generally don't draft college bats (to Mike's chagrin) but mix it up pretty well with the other spots (and that's not looking at other rounds). As everyone else has said, drafting for need is a bad idea. Get the BPA.

The difference between my 18 picks and your 27 picks is that you are using comp picks. Some of these were 38-46th overall. I don't really consider them first round picks. A third of the time we have drafted a HS OF with our first selection. None were catchers (I get Mauer was in 2001).

 

Just seems like we are using our draft pick assets to crowd out one of the few places we can use our limited free agent dollars.

[tobi0040]

Ok....sorry.

No worries at all.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Appel is one example of pitchers that could have fulfilled the Twins' need. Giolito (the best pitcher available in that draft, and the one I wish the Twins took), Wacha, Stroman, Gausman are others.  

 

Can you say that the Twins would have been better off last season with Buxton over (let's say) Wacha?  I seriously doubt.  If they had Wacha they could have been in the post season.

 

That draft is too recent to reach conclusions.  Give it 10 years or so.  Up until 2006, Prior was clearly a better pick than Mauer in the 2001 draft...

 

Wacha was never a candidate to go 1.2. 

[Thrylos]

 

Wacha was never a candidate to go 1.2. 

 

He was in the top 5 pitcher conversation.  And if you pick a pitcher regardless the pick, he should had been.

 

That best player available approach has never worked for the Twins (and other teams, really,) because "best" is subjective, esp. if the subjects are 17 year olds... 

 

So "best" player available truly becomes "most projectable" player available, which is a huge risk.

 

95+ mph fastballs are not subjective.

[Brandon Warne]

 

He was in the top 5 pitcher conversation.  And if you pick a pitcher regardless the pick, he should had been.

 

That best player available approach has never worked for the Twins (and other teams, really,) because "best" is subjective, esp. if the subjects are 17 year olds... 

 

So "best" player available truly becomes "most projectable" player available, which is a huge risk.

 

95+ mph fastballs are not subjective.

 

Literally no one had Wacha at No. 2 overall. That would have been a reach. And beyond that, I'll still take Buxton's potential over Wacha's. 

 

Since his magical rookie season: 3.63 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. Those guys aren't (SHOULDN'T BE) hard to find. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Literally no one had Wacha at No. 2 overall. That would have been a reach. And beyond that, I'll still take Buxton's potential over Wacha's. 

 

Since his magical rookie season: 3.63 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. Those guys aren't (SHOULDN'T BE) hard to find. 

 

And the Twins have found how many of those in the last 10 years?

 

80% of their starting rotation was NOT drafted by MN this year.....and those that were? Duffey, for example?

[Seth Stohs]

Kiriloff led Plum HS to a state semi-final win this afternoon. He'll play one more high school game, might as well win it, and then start talking to the Twins!

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW stated today his he thinks his upside is above average RF with power.

[tobi0040]

KLAW stated today his he thinks his upside is above average RF with power.

Personally, I would like to see us aim higher than that with our first round picks. It seems like the premium positions are C, SS, 2B, 3B, CF, and SP (times five). Aiming for an above average player at those positions may make sense at #15.

 

If the guy has some shot at hitting 35-40 HR like Bryce Harper or Stanton, aim there for a RF. If that guy is not available, use your picks elsewhere.

Edited June 16, 2016 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

He felt he was picked in about the right spot.

 

It isn't just about positional value.....

[tobi0040]

He felt he was picked in about the right spot.

 

It isn't just about positional value.....

I think it is largely about positional value. The name of the game is maximizing value with the resources that are available to you. To the extent you focus your draft picks on position players you need to spend your free agent dollars on pitchers and vice versa.

 

Nelson Cruz and Ervin Santana signed about the same contract. For that matter, Cruz signed for only $2m more per year than Ricky Nolasco. I don’t think I am cherry picking here. 4/50-55 on the free agent market does not get you a #1 or #2 starter and by nature they will be a guy that is 29+, which tends to be past peak for a pitcher. Heck, look at the contract Mike Leake signed.

 

Cruz had WAR of 9 leading up to free agency in the previous three years. Has a career OPS+ is 125 with seasons of 124 and 135 into FA.

 

Nolasco’s ERA+ in his previous three years was 84, 91, and 101. His career number was I believe 91. His WAR from the previous three seasons was 3.6.

 

Ervin’s three years were 74, 90, and 103. His career ERA+ was right about league average (currently 98). His WAR for the previous seasons was 2.2.

 

We would have better luck signing Nelson Cruz, taking the additional value and rolling the dice at drafting a pitcher and hoping he turns out to be league average than using the same amount of money to sign a league average pitcher (before the decline) and hope a guy like Alex Kiriloff turns out to be Nelson Cruz.

Edited June 16, 2016 by tobi0040

[gunnarthor]

 

Personally, I would like to see us aim higher than that with our first round picks. It seems like the premium positions are C, SS, 2B, 3B, CF, and SP (times five). Aiming for an above average player at those positions may make sense at #15.

If the guy has some shot at hitting 35-40 HR like Bryce Harper or Stanton, aim there for a RF. If that guy is not available, use your picks elsewhere.

I'm not sure there were any at 15.  Certainly no catcher or second baseman.  The next SS and 3B off the board were Gavin Lux and Will Craig.  Neither seem like better players than Kirilloff.  A few of the HS arms might have higher ceilings on draft day but might not, as well.  And they have much bigger bust potential.  I think generally the Twins did ok in this draft.  A bunch of their early picks are very young with high upside.  A couple are still 17.  It was a solid pick.

[tobi0040]

I'm not sure there were any at 15.  Certainly no catcher or second baseman.  The next SS and 3B off the board were Gavin Lux and Will Craig.  Neither seem like better players than Kirilloff.  A few of the HS arms might have higher ceilings on draft day but might not, as well.  And they have much bigger bust potential.  I think generally the Twins did ok in this draft.  A bunch of their early picks are very young with high upside.  A couple are still 17.  It was a solid pick.

I looked at the highest 20 SP and position players by WAR last year. Hoping to gain some insight into where these guys are drafted and similarities.

 

17 of the SP were drafted and 3 were signed. 9 of the 17 that came from the draft were taken in the first round, including 4 of the top 5. 2 were taken in the second round.

 

First round. Kerhsaw. Price. Scherzer. Sale. Greinke. Cole. Bumgarner. Harvey. Hamels.

 

Second round. Lester and Ross.

 

Later rounds. Arrieta (5th). Kuechel (7th). Kluber (4th). deGrom (9th). McHugh (18th).

 

Signed. Carrasco. Cueto. And Quintana.

 

I ran the same exercise for position players.

 

First round (8). Harper, Trout, Machado, AJ Pollack, Bryant, Mccutchen, Heyward, and Posey. Of those 8, Trout, Machado, Posey, Mccutchen, and Pollack play a premium position (CF, SS, 2B, 3B, or C). Bryant has played 3B slightly more than half of the time. Call it 5.5 of the 8. A pretty high ratio. The non-premium position players in the first round are Heyward and Harper. The odds of Kiriloff hitting like Harper or fielding like Heyward are pretty low.

 

Supplemental/second rounds – Donaldson, Votto, and Kipnis.

 

Later rounds – Goldschmidt (8). Cain (17). Davis (17). Kiermeyer (31). Rizzo (6). Carpenter (13). Granderson (3). Martinez (20).

 

Signed. Cespedes.

 

The big take away for me is that the positon players tend to fall into one of two buckets. They either play a premium position (like 5.5 of the 8 first rounders), or they absolutely mash like Harper, Goldschmidt, Davis, Votto. That is my frustration with taking a guy who does not play a premium position and is unlikely to hit like one of these guys. Similar to taking a Ben Revere or Alex Wimmers in the first round, you have used your best tool you have to build a team on a guy that has virtually no chance of being one of the better players in the league.

[70charger]

 

The big take away for me is that the positon players tend to fall into one of two buckets. They either play a premium position (like 5.5 of the 8 first rounders), or they absolutely mash like Harper, Goldschmidt, Davis, Votto. That is my frustration with taking a guy who does not play a premium position and is unlikely to hit like one of these guys. Similar to taking a Ben Revere or Alex Wimmers in the first round, you have used your best tool you have to build a team on a guy that has virtually no chance of being one of the better players in the league.

 

Your analysis is reasonable, but you're way overselling your conclusion. Literally nobody is "likely to hit like [Harper]." If there was a guy like that in the draft, I didn't see him. We also picked 15th, not first. 

 

Also, top 20 in WAR is a pretty high bar for "one of the better players in the league." I'd say that's more like one of the superstars. A guy like Kiriloff can absolutely be one of the better players in the league, and for a long time too. 

 

I think the idea that position doesn't play any part in their draft planning is a little ridiculous. You balance premium defense with premium hitting, and you do what you can do at 15. And that's what I'm 100% willing to bet that they did. All things considered (and I mean that literally), they thought this was their best choice.

 

But hey, what do I know? I would have nabbed a pitcher.

Edited June 16, 2016 by 70charger

[tobi0040]

Your analysis is reasonable, but you're way overselling your conclusion. Literally nobody is "likely to hit like [Harper]." If there was a guy like that in the draft, I didn't see him. We also picked 15th, not first.

 

Also, top 20 in WAR is a pretty high bar for "one of the better players in the league." I'd say that's more like one of the superstars. A guy like Kiriloff can absolutely be one of the better players in the league, and for a long time too.

 

I think the idea that position doesn't play any part in their draft planning is a little ridiculous. You balance premium defense with premium hitting, and you do what you can do at 15. And that's what I'm 100% willing to bet that they did. All things considered (and I mean that literally), they thought this was their best choice.

 

But hey, what do I know? I would have nabbed a pitcher.

My premise is that World Series caliber teams have multiple all star caliber players. That is how you win in this league. The 2015 Royals had five all stars and the 2014 Giants had four. Both of those teams had other players who may make all star games in others years (some have).

 

My other premise is that the Twins are at a huge disadvantage with regards to signing an all star caliber player in free agency. We may get lucky here or there but otherwise it won't happen.

 

So if we draft guys whose ceiling is "above average RF" in the first round, how are we going to gather 3-5 all stars? Ben Revere. Wimmers. Waldorp. These guys were not going to be all stars

Edited June 16, 2016 by tobi0040

[Mr. Brooks]

Is his ceiling Jason Kubel?

[70charger]

 

My premise is that World Series caliber teams have multiple all star caliber players. That is how you win in this league. The 2015 Royals had five all stars and the 2014 Giants had four. Both of those teams had other players who may make all star games in others years (some have).

My other premise is that the Twins are at a huge disadvantage with regards to signing an all star caliber player in free agency. We may get lucky here or there but otherwise it won't happen.

So if we draft guys whose ceiling is "above average RF" in the first round, how are we going to gather 3-5 all stars? Ben Revere. Wimmers. Waldorp. These guys were not going to be all stars

 

Now your analysis is breaking down. I don't think a ceiling of "above average RF" is correct. And I think the massively flawed All-Star voting process is hardly a useful proxy for talent.

[tobi0040]

Now your analysis is breaking down. I don't think a ceiling of "above average RF" is correct. And I think the massively flawed All-Star voting process is hardly a useful proxy for talent.

I was going off the comment from Keith Law posted by someone else as far as above average OF. Defensively Fangraphs thinks he will be an above average defensive first baseman or a below average corner OF "if he sticks there". Multiple reports question his bat speed.

 

As far as the all star voting. It is flawed. But the examples I cited of the last two WS champs is valid as is the broader point. Each of those teams have 3-5 all star caliber players. The Royals had position players with a WAR of 7.2, 4.4, 3.6, and 2.8 in addition to Salvador Perez who had the second highest WAR among catchers in the AL. Then they had Wade Davis and his sub 1.00 ERA and 444 ERA+.

 

And they had five other players that have played in an all star game at least once. Volquez, Cueto, Young, Herrera, and Holland

Edited June 17, 2016 by tobi0040

[Brandon Warne]

 

KLAW stated today his he thinks his upside is above average RF with power.

 

Ha, that was my question.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ha, that was my question.

 

At least he answered yours.......