Article: The Benefits Of Badness

[troyhobbs]

 

Why does everyone keep saying to dump Santana? He's one of the few SP above AA with a shot at being decent. You still need to fill out a rotation this year and next and there aren't 5 solid SP behind him. Without Nolasco/Santana/Hughes you'd have Gibson, Berrios, and Duffey as the only decent starting pitchers for next year. Possibly May on the unlikely chance he jumps back to starting. I don't consider Dean a real prospect and the rest of the names are pure lottery tickets. If the Twins went into the season with no reliable #4 and #5 starter, an no options for fallback or injury replacements, it would be absolute mayhem again. Stewart, Gonsalves, and Jay aren't going to be ready for the start of the season and may not even be ready by midseason. I'm not clearing out the major league roster for them this early.

The FO would have to commit to grabbing a couple anchors for the rotation in the off-season, not exactly TR's strong suit. If the Twins had more going for them it might be worth hanging on to Santana but he's not vital to the Twins' future. I'd dump him and replace in the off-season but wouldn't mind holding on to him either for the reasons you've stated if they didn't plan to sign up some help over the winter.

[dxpavelka]

Thought 1:  The problem with drafting for need in baseball is that by the time a guy is ready to contribute your needs have usually drastically changed. Thought 2:  Get Trevor May in the rotation and stop wasting his arm as a set up guy on a 17-40 team.  17-40 teams don't need to develop set up guys, they need to develop starters.  STOP THE MADNESS. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

The FO would have to commit to grabbing a couple anchors for the rotation in the off-season, not exactly TR's strong suit. If the Twins had more going for them it might be worth hanging on to Santana but he's not vital to the Twins' future. I'd dump him and replace in the off-season but wouldn't mind holding on to him either for the reasons you've stated if they didn't plan to sign up some help over the winter.

 

If you dump him and replace him in the offseason you aren't very likely to do much better, and now you've just added significantly to your payroll for no real improvement. The Twins aren't exactly a bunch of miracle workers are picking up free agent pitchers.

[jimbo92107]

 

Why does everyone keep saying to dump Santana? He's one of the few SP above AA with a shot at being decent. You still need to fill out a rotation this year and next and there aren't 5 solid SP behind him. Without Nolasco/Santana/Hughes you'd have Gibson, Berrios, and Duffey as the only decent starting pitchers for next year. Possibly May on the unlikely chance he jumps back to starting. I don't consider Dean a real prospect and the rest of the names are pure lottery tickets. If the Twins went into the season with no reliable #4 and #5 starter, an no options for fallback or injury replacements, it would be absolute mayhem again. Stewart, Gonsalves, and Jay aren't going to be ready for the start of the season and may not even be ready by midseason. I'm not clearing out the major league roster for them this early.

You have touched on one of the core problems with fan speculation.

 

First, TD is a fan site with no connection to the actual Twins organization. As such, we have the freedom to ignore the unlikelihood that a billionaire will say, "What the heck, I'll eat a few multi-million dollar contracts to see if Wheeler and Darnell are slightly better than Hughes and Nolasco, if May can replace Santana, etc, etc." In the real world, MLB owners tend to be pretty conservative, and this team's owners are even more conservative than average. 

 

Second, even high prospects like Berrios and Buxton can implode when they hit the Show. What makes me think Wheeler and Darnell will do any better? 

 

My answer as a Twins fan is, it doesn't matter. This is a terrible, almost unwatchable team. The veteran pitchers are mediocre, and the position veterans are mediocre. If this is your product, I'm not buying it. This bottom-dwelling team would do better to completely rebuild itself from within, trying out every AAA and AA player to see where they're at in their development. They brought up Pat Dean because Hughes can't go five innings without giving up 5 runs. Nolasco and Santana aren't much better. At this rate, no starter on the Twins will win more than 10 games this season. A good team sometimes will tolerate such low production from their fifth starter, but only if he's a rising prospect or a monster innings eater. The Twins have neither. 

 

The catcher situation is an embarrassment. Kurt Suzuki is physically worn out, and he was never that good anyway. Base runners steal off of him with impunity, for they know he gets the ball to 2nd consistently too late. Even so they play the worn out veteran more than a scrappy kid that hits and throws much better than Suzuki, but they won't even make that change. 

 

There is no direct connection between TD and the Twins organization, but if they care about their fan base, the Twins should pay some attention to the rising level of frustration with this team's failure to make moves to prepare for the next generation of talent. Like Pat Dean, Darnell and Wheeler offer a more mature approach to pitching than do flashy younger guys like Berrios. While we wait for the hotter arms to develop, this is a good time to see if the Twins can find out more about the guys that don't throw mid-90's, but know how to pitch. If one or more of these guys can become a late rotation innings eater, now is the time to find out. 

Edited June 8, 2016 by jimbo92107

[tobi0040]

Agreed Jimbo. This is an unwatchable team. I have been recording the games and just watching the at bats of Buxton, Sano, etc. any start by Berrios, May, and Meyer as well.

 

Not a good sign for the Twins. I may reconsider going to my one or two games a year as the re-sale prices may be in the 5-10 range soon if they aren't already.

[dgwills]

There's opportunity here. I'd be all in on an high caliber catcher like J.J. Schwarz. Unfortunately we have the worst GM in baseball. He'll hang on to his crafty veterans and they'll be able pull out just enough wins to avoid getting an impact player. We'll get another guy like Stewart or Gordon. Not bad, but not a franchise changer either. There was a time where I didn't dislike Ryan. Unfortunately that was a lot of bad decisions ago.

[dgwills]

 

To add to #2, you might want to think about how "bad" this draft has been called by scouts and talking heads like Keith Law. There isn't a whole lot of impact players reportedly. Thus, if the Twins were to draft say, the Manning kid who apparently has "signability" issues and weren't able to sign him, then next year they would get a mid-1st round pick in a reportedly much, much better draft.  Something to think about...

I don't think this draft is considered weak in the middle. Your plan is still the right one though. Having the sixteenth pick with another high pick is a very good position to be in. If there's no one you think that is worth top four or five money you can likely pick up two top ten players by getting a discount on the first pick. If the kid signs you still got the player you wanted instead of the the player had to take. 

Win,win situation.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

 

 

"Ahem?"

who have they drafted/developed/signed/traded for behind him? If all you're getting is 8-10 years of Mauer, you best be succession planning from day one.

[jlknapp]

there is absolutely no evidence that the Twins can draft anyone and turn him into a major league ballplayer - either the ballplayer does it on his own or he leaves the Twins and finds success with some other organization.  Why be excited about the #1 pick (or #2, etc.) if you don't have the club management that can help your draft picks develop and thrive?

[magiklair]

I have no faith in this front office to do anything that will improve the team. I'm waiting for them to sign Nunez, To a three-year extension

[The Wise One]

 

You can audition rookies in August and September in almost any season, but it doesn't give you a whole lot of useful data to prepare for next year (see Kennys Vargas, Chris Parmelee, etc.).

 

The Twins epically poor start has given them an advantage that they already know, at this early date, that they can start to look to the future.  No sense delaying it until August to try buoying modest trade values.  There is absolutely room today for Chargois in pen without waiting for Abad to be dealt, there is room for May and/or Berrios in the rotation without waiting for a SP trade, innings for Wheeler to see if he is worth protecting on the 40-man again this winter, etc.

April and May is enough time to tell if players are bad but an equal time on the other end of the season is not.  Yup, June July, August and September would be better. A full season or two would be better. Stupid thing about trades, it requires 2 teams. It is not unreasonable to think it is going to take a month and a half to move some of the players.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

April and May is enough time to tell if players are bad but an equal time on the other end of the season is not.  Yup, June July, August and September would be better. A full season or two would be better. Stupid thing about trades, it requires 2 teams. It is not unreasonable to think it is going to take a month and a half to move some of the players.

It's not about concluding which players are bad in two months, it's about collecting data.  Right now we have a ton of data about Dozier, Plouffe, etc., and very little about Polanco.  What's a better use of limited playing time resources in the middle of a lost season, seeing Dozier's career PA # 2600-2800, or Plouffe's career PA # 2700-2900, or Polanco's career PA # 50-250?  Especially when we have to make decisions this winter about Polanco (out of options), Santana (out of options), and Plouffe, Escobar, and Nunez (all due raises in arbitration).

 

And the Mets trade for Kelly Johnson suggests trades can come before the end of July if the team wants it to.  I suspect the Twins could have eaten $3 mil and moved Plouffe to the Mets for an interesting relief prospect a few days ago. But instead they would rather pay him that same $3 mil for him to play here ahead of Polanco and Escobar in a lost season the next two months, and hope that something better is available July 31st which it likely won't be, given Plouffe's salary and track record and the general 3B market.

 

Also, the Twins aren't only limiting themselves by waiting for trade opportunities.  Pat Dean is in the starting rotation, for example, while Trevor May threw 2 pitches in a one batter relief appearance last night, again in the middle of a lost season...

[tobi0040]

It's not about concluding which players are bad in two months, it's about collecting data.  Right now we have a ton of data about Dozier, Plouffe, etc., and very little about Polanco.  What's a better use of limited playing time resources in the middle of a lost season, seeing Dozier's career PA # 2600-2800, or Plouffe's career PA # 2700-2900, or Polanco's career PA # 50-250?  Especially when we have to make decisions this winter about Polanco (out of options), Santana (out of options), and Plouffe, Escobar, and Nunez (all due raises in arbitration).

 

And the Mets trade for Kelly Johnson suggests trades can come before the end of July if the team wants it to.  I suspect the Twins could have eaten $3 mil and moved Plouffe to the Mets for an interesting relief prospect a few days ago. But instead they would rather pay him that same $3 mil for him to play here ahead of Polanco and Escobar in a lost season the next two months, and hope that something better is available July 31st which it likely won't be, given Plouffe's salary and track record and the general 3B market.

 

Also, the Twins aren't only limiting themselves by waiting for trade opportunities.  Pat Dean is in the starting rotation, for example, while Trevor May threw 2 pitches in a one batter relief appearance last night, again in the middle of a lost season...

Yeah, nothing will make any sense at all until we see a leadership change. My neck hurts from all the head shaking.

Edited June 9, 2016 by tobi0040

[DocBauer]

As of NOW, I am choosing, blindly or not, to assume the best for the current front office in regard to their view of our current situation, and what needs to be done. I say this due to obvious, public, frustration by the Pohlad's, as well as comments from Ryan that would almost have you believing he is fighting for his job. (you've heard and read them all) And while we can and have debated back and forth as to if the Twins have shown any sort of change recently in philosophy or agenda...and to what degree...I believe there has been a shift. (even if injuries have more quickly ushered in such changes.)

 

To me, the entire trade, DFA, non-tender issue breaks down in to 3 different categories:

 

1} THE OBVIOUS: This one is just so obvious that I shouldn't even have to state it. Plouffe needs to go in order to move Sano to 3B. This does so much to facilitate the future of the roster and improve/make-room-in the OF. He's just not a match for the future and value should be received while we can.

 

Same with Nolasco. At this point, eating a chunk of his contract, someone out there needs, or will need, help on the mound and would see the veteran as a solid option without an expensive or long contract situation.

 

With all due respect to the tough and professional Suzuki, he's done as a Twin. Every year it seems, someone invariably needs catching help for the second half as they make a run at the post season. Zuke may have value to one of these teams, and could offer a tiny return potentially. Waiver wire, trade, or however, the Twins needs to find another decent, solid option at catcher to work with Centeno, Murphy later, and simply part with Suzuki sooner rather than later.

 

Jepsen...is not going to be back, and should not be back. Chargois is ready or close. Pressly and Tonkin offer upside, are cheaper, and pitching better. Heck, even Kinzler is younger and throwing better and cheaper. Unless the idea is to bring Jepsen back on a minimum type deal for depth and competition, he's a former Twin in the waiting. For the sake of the future, sooner should come sooner rather than later. And for his sake as well as he may find a good landing spot, via trade or release.

 

2} THE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE: 

 

*Perkins

*Hughes

*Santana

 

The Twins still need guys to start, this year and next. I still like Santana to be one of those guys. Hes not been at the top of his game yet, but is solid, and provides a proven "veteran" presence in a rotation that could be real young real quick.

 

Hughes and Perkins would be almost impossible to trade at this point. Perkins, maybe, if he has a strong rebound off the DL. 

 

3} QUESTIONABLES:

 

*Dozier

*Abad

*Nunez

 

I'm in favor of moving Dozier at this point, though we could end up regretting it later. He's young enough and talented enough to be part of tomorrow. But actually getting Polanco playing time could give us an excellent young player to take over 2B. 

 

I don't know that Nunez, career season or not, brings back enough to warrant moving him and removing a useful piece. And I'd keep him for sure if Dozier was moved.

 

Same with Abad. To me, I'd be in favor of an extension as long as it's only 2 years and not for an outrageous price. He's had a solid career, and would probably bring more value to the Twins over the next couple of years than what he would bring in return. Maybe.

 

[The Wise One]

 

It's not about concluding which players are bad in two months, it's about collecting data.  Right now we have a ton of data about Dozier, Plouffe, etc., and very little about Polanco.  What's a better use of limited playing time resources in the middle of a lost season, seeing Dozier's career PA # 2600-2800, or Plouffe's career PA # 2700-2900, or Polanco's career PA # 50-250?  Especially when we have to make decisions this winter about Polanco (out of options), Santana (out of options), and Plouffe, Escobar, and Nunez (all due raises in arbitration).

 

And the Mets trade for Kelly Johnson suggests trades can come before the end of July if the team wants it to.  I suspect the Twins could have eaten $3 mil and moved Plouffe to the Mets for an interesting relief prospect a few days ago. But instead they would rather pay him that same $3 mil for him to play here ahead of Polanco and Escobar in a lost season the next two months, and hope that something better is available July 31st which it likely won't be, given Plouffe's salary and track record and the general 3B market.

 

Also, the Twins aren't only limiting themselves by waiting for trade opportunities.  Pat Dean is in the starting rotation, for example, while Trevor May threw 2 pitches in a one batter relief appearance last night, again in the middle of a lost season...

Kelly Johnson was with the Mets last year. They went with someone they knew and available.

Data on Plouffe in looking at his for this season and ignoring the rest of his work is fine, but the first two months of a prospects career tell you nothing?  Please.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kelly Johnson was with the Mets last year. They went with someone they knew and available.

Data on Plouffe in looking at his for this season and ignoring the rest of his work is fine, but the first two months of a prospects career tell you nothing? Please.

Huh? What the heck are you responding to here? I never "ignored the rest of Plouffe's work" and I never said that the first 2 months of a prospects career tell us nothing.

 

Plouffe's career tells us he is a fairly low upside guy who may not even be worth his arb award this year and next in the current 3B market.

 

And 2 months of a prospect can be good info, better than nothing but its not as good as 3 or 4 months. Also, it is important to take the opportunity when it is available. What happens if we delay all this until August 1st because we don't want to send a couple mil with Plouffe to offset his salary between now and then, and then Polanco or Escobar suffer injuries over the last two months? Or even more likely, TR still can't work a trade until late August and now you're down to basically a September call-up, and Polanco still might be fighting with Escobar, Santana, Nunez, etc for playing time. There is a cost to delaying things, probably more than offsetting whatever modest gain Trader Terry thinks he is getting from his conservative trade stance.

 

Simply put, the guys relevant to our future are healthy now and ready to experience everyday MLB action. The guy who isn't relevant to our future is unlikely to see his value shift in the next two months except due to his decreasing salary obligation. There is no better time to eat a little money to get things moving.

 

Maybe the Mets would have still preferred Kelly Johnson, but do you think TR was on the phone with them and opening to sending along $2-3 mil cash? If not, that is a problem.

[The Wise One]

 

Huh? What the heck are you responding to here? I never "ignored the rest of Plouffe's work" and I never said that the first 2 months of a prospects career tell us nothing.

Plouffe's career tells us he is a fairly low upside guy who may not even be worth his arb award this year and next in the current 3B market.

And 2 months of a prospect can be good info, better than nothing but its not as good as 3 or 4 months. Also, it is important to take the opportunity when it is available. What happens if we delay all this until August 1st because we don't want to send a couple mil with Plouffe to offset his salary between now and then, and then Polanco or Escobar suffer injuries over the last two months? Or even more likely, TR still can't work a trade until late August and now you're down to basically a September call-up, and Polanco still might be fighting with Escobar, Santana, Nunez, etc for playing time. There is a cost to delaying things, probably more than offsetting whatever modest gain Trader Terry thinks he is getting from his conservative trade stance.

Simply put, the guys relevant to our future are healthy now and ready to experience everyday MLB action. The guy who isn't relevant to our future is unlikely to see his value shift in the next two months except due to his decreasing salary obligation. There is no better time to eat a little money to get things moving.

Maybe the Mets would have still preferred Kelly Johnson, but do you think TR was on the phone with them and opening to sending along $2-3 mil cash? If not, that is a problem.

I am sorry, I did not realize that being a better than league average hitter on a team that is almost devoid of that by woba is low ceiling.  

More than wishful thinking on the Mets trade possibilities. The Mets need someone in a hurry. They do not play the Twins very much so they do not have much exposure to Plouffe.  They know Johnson. As Johnson plays 2b for them perhaps they see more of an upside to Flores than Plouffe. After all, Plouffe is low ceiling

[Platoon]

I agree with Doc about the FO. Sure, I would like the Pohlads to sell the team to some rich baseball fanatic, Ryan to receive his Gold Watch, and Molitor to a happy retirement. All this week. But as they say, Reality Bites. The best that can be hoped for is that the result of this season is that Ryan sees a little light, not 'the light', but just a little. And if that is to pass, it's not going to be evident until at least Aug 1st. Pennant chases will have to evolve, injuries and non performance will occur, and the ticking clock on seasons will have to get louder for some teams. (Ours is in sand dial mode) What Ryan does between now and midnight July 31 will set the tenor for this franchise for the next 6 years. It's going to take those 50 days to see if any good can come of this? Do I think a move to a real roster reconstruct will occur? No! Do I think Ryan will suddenly change his stripes, and become reactive and imaginative? No! Is there an alternative? No! I hate being wrong, but in this case I would welcome it.

Edited June 11, 2016 by Platoon