Article: Twins Daily Draft Preview: 10-round Mock

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Putting together your own mock draft is a fun exercise and is always interesting to look back at later to see how you did. Putting together a 10-round mock draft for one team when the 29 other teams have their own ideas can be an exercise in futility.

 

This is my third annual attempt at projecting the Twins top 10 rounds and is quickly becoming my favorite pre-draft thing to do each year.In 2014, I hit on Nick Gordon in the first round (most would have) and landed 9th-round pick Max Murphy in the exact spot he was drafted. Because of that, I will overvalue/overrate Murphy for the rest of his career. Hitting on two of the ten picks was exactly two more correct than I expected to hit on, and I expected some regression the following year.

 

Projecting Dillon Tate first in 2015 was incorrect. And I thought my chances of hitting on anyone was rapidly approaching 0%. But my next two projected picks - Kyle Cody and Trey Cabbage - both heard their names called by the Twins and I had my two picks correct for the second straight year.

 

This year, with two comp picks and no forfeited picks, I have 12 picks to try to extend my streak.

 

To give this as “realistic” feel as possible, I found every player’s composite ranking (the average of Perfect Game, Baseball America and MLB) and couldn’t take them unless they fell after or within 10% of the pick (with the exception of the first pick). For example, to be “eligible” for me to pick at 74, the composite ranking had to be lower than 66.6. To be drafted at 93, he had to be ranked 83.7 or lower. For the last four picks, I couldn’t choose a player who was ranked in the Top 200 on each of the three lists.

 

Round 1 (Pick 15 - $2,817,100): OF Alex Kirilloff, Pennsylvania HS. The talk all along has been on the team’s focus on “power arms”. But I don’t think there is going to be a great option available at #15. Kirilloff is one of the few bats that really seems to intrigue the Twins in the first round and though he’s been linked to many of the teams around the Twins, has a decent chance to be available.

 

Round 2 (Pick 55 - $1,141,600): RHP Daulton Jefferies, Cal. The undersized righty missed a significant amount of time this season with a shoulder injury that was originally reported as a calf strain. He’s returned recently to the mound and pitched well. Jefferies has a three-pitch mix currently: a low-to-mid-90s fastball, an above-average changeup and a slider that’s developing. Had Jefferies been healthy, he would have gone much sooner. (Composite average: 50.7)

 

Comp Round B (Pick 73 - $878,500): C Will Smith, Louisville. After a late-season surge, there’s a chance that this all-around catcher isn’t available in the 70s. The helium that Smith has is impressive, considering he missed Perfect Game’s Top 500, checks in at 219 for Baseball America and tops out at 110 for MLB Pipeline. Smith is a name to remember and is almost a certainty to come off the board on Day One. (Composite average: N/A)

 

Comp Round B (Pick 74 - $865,200): SS Luis Curbelo, Florida HS. A Miami commit, Curbel, who worked out for the Twins a few weeks ago, will start his professional career at shortstop, but projects long-term as a third baseman with power and the ability to be an above-average defender. (Composite average: 93.6)

 

Round 3 (Pick 93 - $645,600): SS Stephen Alemais, Tulane. Alemais was one of my personal favorites coming out of high school three years ago. He went undrafted and has played really well at Tulane. He has the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, though there are concerns about his bat. Alemais was the subject of an ESPN article about the Twins scouting, which probably makes the likelihood of Alemais getting drafted by the Twins pretty slim. (Composite average: 105)

 

Round 4 (Pick 123 - $477,900): LHP Keegan Akin, Western Michigan. Akin had success in the Cape Cod League and has a three-pitch mix: a mid-90s fastball and an average slider and changeup. Akin has been moving up boards, so it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see him go off the board earlier than the fourth round. (Composite average: 114)

 

Round 5 (Pick 153 - $357,800): 3B/C Ulysses Cantu, Texas HS. Cantu has dabbled with catching, but has played more third base. His calling card, however, is a pure hitting ability, something the organization always seems to be lacking. (Composite average: 149)

 

Round 6 (Pick 183 - $267,800): RHP Stephen Nogosek, Oregon. The Twins have had some recent success with both Oregon closers and converting relievers to starters. Nogosek checks both of those boxes. Armed with a fastball in the mid-90s, a “frisbee” slider and a changeup that will probably be scrapped if he stays in the bullpen, Nogosek would be an intriguing addition to the organization. (Composite average: 169.3)

 

Round 7 (Pick 213 - $200,900): OF Dom Thompson-Williams, South Carolina. Recently on the Talking Twins Podcast, I suggested that the Twins don’t have a positional need as much as they have a need for pure athletes. Thompson-Williams is a great athlete, though he still needs to refine his baseball skills. (PG: 169; BA: 237; MLB: NR)

 

Round 8 (Pick 243 - $178,200): RHP A.J. Bogucki, North Carolina. Bogucki was drafted by the Twins in the 31st round in 2013 out of a Pennsylvania HS, but decided to pitch collegiately and has been a dependable bullpen arm for the Tar Heels. Bogucki’s low-to-mid-90s fastball and curveball/slider combination profile best in the bullpen, but you never know. (PG: 217; BA: 262; MLB: NR)

 

Round 9 (Pick 273 -$166,300): LHP Scott Moss, Florida. Moss underwent Tommy John surgery after redshirting his freshman year, so he hasn’t had many opportunities to showcase his ability (and he has two more opportunities to go through the draft process if he chooses). But what Moss has been able to show is a three-pitch mix (fastball, curveball, changeup) and a raw ability that scouts can dream on. Moss did have success pitching in the Northwoods League, but has really battled with command. (PG: 192; BA: NR; MLB: 191)

 

Round 10 (Pick 303 - $156,600): RHP Curtis Taylor, U. of British Columbia. Though it’s not necessarily going to happen in the top ten rounds (nor does it have to happen at all), the Twins now have a presence in Canada with scout Walt Burrows, who knows baseball in Canada better than anyone. Could his addition to the organization pay off with the drafting of a pitcher like Taylor, another power pitcher with a fastball/slider combo?(PG: 284; BA: 115; MLB: NR)

 

There it is. The Twins first 12 picks (over 10 rounds). Six pitchers of the college variety, a couple of potential shortstops and a couple of potential catchers along with a potential corner-OF All-Star bat. What do you think?

 

Other draft-related articles:

Local Profiles

Zack Burdi

Zack Collins

Prep Arms

 

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[tobi0040]

I thought TR's comment here was interesting.

 

"Our guys are pretty certain we are going to get a certain guy"

 

Sounds like we are going to grab someone that most have available at 15. So not a top guy falling

 

http://www.twincities.com/2016/06/03/twins-need-catching-but-need-wont-dictate-draft/

[nicksaviking]

I thought TR's comment here was interesting.

"Our guys are pretty certain we are going to get a certain guy"

Sounds like we are going to grab someone that most have available at 15. So not a top guy falling

http://www.twincities.com/2016/06/03/twins-need-catching-but-need-wont-dictate-draft/

Could be, or it could be they have one of those handshake deals with a guy who is currently claiming he wants overslot to deter other teams.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Or it could be that he doesn't want to give up what his plan is. How often is TR open and honest about things like this? Not very often.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Or it could be that he doesn't want to give up what his plan is. How often is TR open and honest about things like this? Not very often.

 

He's open more than most GMs but this is definitely not an area in which he should say too much. That said, I noticed that comment too.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

First day of draft meetings today. Text I just got: We don't have anyone locked in at all.

 

I wouldn't expect a name even if the Twins were locked in, but this isn't the response I'd get.

[ashbury]

OF Dom Thompson-Williams: how does "pure athlete" compare to "toolsy outfielder"?

[tobi0040]

He's open more than most GMs but this is definitely not an area in which he should say too much. That said, I noticed that comment too.

I guess we will find out soon. But if it were a mis-direction that was very Spielman-esque.

 

The first time I read it I thought "certain guy" could be a generic term, such as we are going with a prep pitcher.

Edited June 4, 2016 by tobi0040

[diehardtwinsfan]

Don't like your picks Jeremy

 

I don't mind those college picks later in order to get some room to get some HS guys earlier, but only 3 HS guys in 12 picks isn't what I had in mind.  Unless that OF is another toolsy guy, I'd rather go with hard throwing prep pitcher as well as Ben R. or Cooper J. in round 2.  We need catching help and both of those guys make a ton of sense in that range.  They aren't reaches, and they have high ceilings as good defenders with potential plus bats.   

[nater79a]

I predict Jeremy gets all 12 of these picks exactly right. Then he drops the mic, walks out of the room and retires from MLB draft analysis.

[Hrbowski]

 

Don't like your picks Jeremy

 

I don't mind those college picks later in order to get some room to get some HS guys earlier, but only 3 HS guys in 12 picks isn't what I had in mind.  Unless that OF is another toolsy guy, I'd rather go with hard throwing prep pitcher as well as Ben R. or Cooper J. in round 2.  We need catching help and both of those guys make a ton of sense in that range.  They aren't reaches, and they have high ceilings as good defenders with potential plus bats.   

It's going to be hard to sign guys if our first two picks are prep players.

[nater79a]

Do you see your previous pick Dunn going higher than #15 now? I think MLBPipeline.com had him mocked to the M's at 11. Not sure how his outing yesterday vs Tulane affected his stock.

[operation mindcrime]

You put a lot of time and effort into this, job well done!

[HitInAPinch]

 

I thought TR's comment here was interesting.

"Our guys are pretty certain we are going to get a certain guy"

Sounds like we are going to grab someone that most have available at 15. So not a top guy falling

http://www.twincities.com/2016/06/03/twins-need-catching-but-need-wont-dictate-draft/

Maybe the players last name is Certain?   Sneaky, sneaky TR        

[Seth Stohs]

 

I predict Jeremy gets all 12 of these picks exactly right. Then he drops the mic, walks out of the room and retires from MLB draft analysis.

 

He wouldn't retire for a little while because I guarantee he will spend a BUNCH of time letting all be reminded of his success. HA!

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Don't like your picks Jeremy

 

I don't mind those college picks later in order to get some room to get some HS guys earlier, but only 3 HS guys in 12 picks isn't what I had in mind.  Unless that OF is another toolsy guy, I'd rather go with hard throwing prep pitcher as well as Ben R. or Cooper J. in round 2.  We need catching help and both of those guys make a ton of sense in that range.  They aren't reaches, and they have high ceilings as good defenders with potential plus bats.

 

The nature of the beast is that not a whole lot of prep players get drafted after round 5. It happens, but it's atypical. Not exactly a reach on my part.

[biggentleben]

After round 4, draft picks aren't protected, meaning that if a guy doesn't sign, you don't get a comp pick, which is why you see that starting in round 4, high schoolers start to disappear until round 11.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I just asked is Thaiss, who Sickles mocked to Twins, is crazy. And the response I got was "probably but it's still early" which I translate to "he's not Top 15 on our board, but we don't know how many high schoolers we won't be able to sign yet."

[dgwills]

 

I just asked is Thaiss, who Sickles mocked to Twins, is crazy. And the response I got was "probably but it's still early" which I translate to "he's not Top 15 on our board, but we don't know how many high schoolers we won't be able to sign yet."

Who did you ask?  Personally I wouldn't worry too much about not being able to sign someone. If you fail you have the 16th pick next year with likely a top 3 pick. Not a bad position to be in.

I appreciate your draft coverage by the way.

[gunnarthor]

I wonder how many HS kids are demanding over slot bonuses?  At a certain point, not all these guys are top 10 talents, but are more than 10 (for instance) expecting top 10 dollars?

[Bob Sacamento]

I like your picks and hope you get the Kirilloff and Curbelo picks right, I've already seen them in action against the highest competition at the WWBA but also chatted with them and their parents, both are signing but won't come at discounts.

 

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Who did you ask?  Personally I wouldn't worry too much about not being able to sign someone. If you fail you have the 16th pick next year with likely a top 3 pick. Not a bad position to be in.

I appreciate your draft coverage by the way.

 

Specifically, can't tell. But its someone involved in all the draft meetings and will be in the draft room.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I wonder how many HS kids are demanding over slot bonuses?  At a certain point, not all these guys are top 10 talents, but are more than 10 (for instance) expecting top 10 dollars?

 

More than 10 can get it based on teams cutting below-slot deals with their picks and having a ton of money left to promise others (typically high schoolers) to drop to their second pick.

[The Wise One]

^{Bleacher report, Craig Lambert, Baseball America  think Dakota Hudson.  If as advertised as the second best college pitcher, I don't think he will be there}

^{Sickles currently says Thaiss the catcher.  Contact hitter, not a great defensive catcher. I do not think that is a good guess either.}

^{The guys at Scout.com think Connor Jones. They say he projects as mid rotation.  If there is more potential elsewhere I would guess they would go elsewhere.. Wimmers may cured them of "safe" picks.}

^{Callis has Kirriloff}

Many of the draft sites do have interesting things to say

 

http://www.dcprosportsreport.com/MLBMocks.htm

 

That will get you to links of other people's opinions.

You can kill a lot of time there.

[d-mac]

 

^{Bleacher report, Craig Lambert, Baseball America  think Dakota Hudson.  If as advertised as the second best college pitcher, I don't think he will be there}

^{Sickles currently says Thaiss the catcher.  Contact hitter, not a great defensive catcher. I do not think that is a good guess either.}

^{The guys at Scout.com think Connor Jones. They say he projects as mid rotation.  If there is more potential elsewhere I would guess they would go elsewhere.. Wimmers may cured them of "safe" picks.}

^{Callis has Kirriloff}

Many of the draft sites do have interesting things to say

 

http://www.dcprosportsreport.com/MLBMocks.htm

 

That will get you to links of other people's opinions.

You can kill a lot of time there.

 

Connor Jones... yuck!

[biggentleben]

 

I wonder how many HS kids are demanding over slot bonuses?  At a certain point, not all these guys are top 10 talents, but are more than 10 (for instance) expecting top 10 dollars?

 

It's not about top 10 dollars. It's about asking $3M+ and likely not going to be a top 10 pick.

 

There's a ton of depth in the high school class in the guys that normally would be picked between 12-30 in a draft, as in probably 40-50 guys who would profile in that type of range normally, so many of them are using finances as their way to negotiate.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Problem as I see it is why in the world would they turn down a signing bonus north of 7 figures?  They could still get college paid for as part of the deal, and worst case they could buy a nice home and drop the rest of the bonus into a safe-low yield fund that could literally subsidize them for the rest of their lives no matter how that baseball career worked. 

[Mike Sixel]

Some people want to go to college? It is an awesome time. Probably the best time of your life in many ways.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Some people want to go to college? It is an awesome time. Probably the best time of your life in many ways.

Hmm, go to college or sign for $X million... Despite how much fun I had in college, I'd take the $X million worse case I have the money to pay for the college after chasing the dream.  Somehow its not blocked by the CBA but a kid can get drafted by an MLB team and sign out of HS play a season or two, then go back to college and play on the football team with a scholarship.  

Edited June 6, 2016 by Bob Sacamento

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Hmm, go to college or sign for $X million... Despite how much fun I had in college, I'd take the $X million worse case I have the money to pay for the college after chasing the dream.  Somehow its not blocked by the CBA but a kid can get drafted by an MLB team and sign out of HS play a season or two, then go back to college and play on the football team with a scholarship.  

 

Typically when a player signs out of high school, part of their contract includes 8 semesters at a college of the player's choice. They just call the commissioner's office and let them know they've enrolled and BOOM, it's paid. College guys usually negotiate to get the rest of their semesters paid for too.