Article: Trading Places

[Thrylos]

 

The irony is that the Royals used the Twins model for their rebuild.  

 

There is no such thing as a  Twins' model.  And if there is, it is different and less successful than the Royals' model.  IIRC the Royals traded their top prospect and an up and coming pitcher for a top of the rotation pitcher (Shields) and a future closer.  If the Twins traded Buxton and Darnell for Shields and Davis, there would be a revolution.  Also, last July the Royals traded a top pitching prospect (Manea) to the As for Zobrist.  This might actually be close to what the Twins did when Bill Smith was the GM (Ramos for Capps,)  but nothing even remotely resembling Ryans wildest dreams.  More like the antithesis of what TR has been doing, which is being unwilling to trade top prospects.

 

I'd love it, btw, if he traded Buxton and got a high return before Buxton got exposed by started swinging at curves like he was swatting at flies in the majors.  Something that KC would had done...

 

Totally opposite mindsets.

[troyhobbs]

 

It cost them winning the WS, isn't that the goal? Or, is coasting to 85 wins and no playoff victories the goal?

Exactly why the Twins should've gone for it last year and made a bigger splash around the deadline than just adding Jepsen. You never know what the next year will bring and nothing is guaranteed.

[EddieMatthews]

I have to interject the "chemistry" word into the discussion.  When two productive starters (Gordon and Moustakis) go down and then the All-Star catcher Perez follows, it must be chemistry that makes Drew Butera a .306 hitter.  He hasn't hit his weight in 10 ML seasons, averaging .190 and weighing 200.  This team believes they can win every game.  They won the WS by coming from behind and it creates a sense of fear in their opponents.  

[ashbury]

it must be chemistry that makes Drew Butera a .306 hitter. 

In 40 plate appearances this season.

 

Instead of calling it Small Sample Size, bring this insight about chemistry to Las Vegas and see if you can get a sports book to make you a proposition bet that he hits .280 or better in his next 40 PA, and take the "over" at even money.

[mikelink45]

We stink and the head stinker is Terry Ryan.  Don't give me any more crap about patience.  Whoever is failing beneath the big GM guru is stinking because of the system this man has put in place.  Pull the plug, flush the commode, move on, Jim Pohlad total system failure starts at the head of the system. 

[Riverbrian]

The Royals... like the Twins tried to build without spending gobs of cash. 

 

Dayton Moore managed to keep his job after years of struggling like Terry Ryan. 

 

After that... I don't see many things that are comparable. 

 

I remember reading reports that Dayton was out of lengthy rope when he abruptly changed course and put it all on red with the Myers, Odorizzi and Montgomery deal for Shields. Let's not forget about Montgomery he was pretty nice prospect as well.

 

Dayton had to produce a winner or he was gone and I assume this caused him to part with lots of prospects for someone to sit on top of the rotation... actually to fill out his terrible rotation.  

 

The Fans hated the move and they probably hated Dayton Moore and the trade probably required a stronger adjective than hate toward Dayton Moore.

 

If the Royals didn't win after the deal... Not only would he be fired but restaurants would refuse service when he tried to order some burnt ends. "Give up Wil Myers did ya... Get out of here". 

 

It was desperation that caused him to finally risk it all and when he did... he completely broke away from any Terry Ryan model. He may have declared that he was following the Twins model but it didn't bring him home. 

 

As for Wade Davis... In my opinion... he got really lucky but hey... that happens sometimes and he does get credit for that luck because he has a history of turning failed starters into bullpen assets. Hochevar and Duffy for example. 

 

Wade Davis was really young (23 and 24 years old) but very average his first two years as a starter for the Rays. In his third year with the Rays at age 25... He was moved to the bullpen... He didn't get a single start that year. No Saves and only 6 holds so lower leverage stuff but his K/9 jumped from 5.14 as starter to 11.13 in the Rays pen. 

 

Dayton Moore... I'm just guessing... probably agrees to Wade Davis because Tampa had no idea what they had (neither did Moore I'm guessing) and KC was desperate for starting pitching and his job is on the line. Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen were all they had!!! So Dayton acquires Ervin Santana in an earlier deal and later pulls the trigger on the Shields/Davis Trade to complete the rotation.  

 

Dayton's plan went wrong because Davis started 24 games and produced a 5.32 ERA and he was Phil Hughes'd into the bullpen and then the magic happened. 

 

Think about this:

 

If this is truly trading places... Terry Ryan just might be in that same desperate to keep your job situation that caused Dayton to trade Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery. 

 

Buxton... Meyer and Gonsalves for who? That would be a comparable trade to what Moore did with his back against the wall.  

 

Does anyone want Terry Ryan to make that trade for a Shields type starter? 

 

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Does anyone want Terry Ryan to make that trade for a Shields type starter? 

 

It's not that simple because Moore had added someone like Cain previously that made Myers more expendable.  (Not to mention that Myers was a bit miscast - not good enough to be a CF defensively and not elite enough offensively to be a corner OF)

 

So to answer your question - yes I would.  Not this coming offseason, but perhaps the next.  But only if it's for a good prospect that is blocked.  

[Riverbrian]

True but that's also not that simple. 

 

Cain wasn't Cain yet. He was a light hitting defensive guy at the time of the trade and they also had Francour and Lough manning RF so OF wasn't exactly blocking Myers. 

 

Also... Let me amend my earlier question and phrase it better... like I intended. 

 

Would you want Terry Ryan?

 

Trading Buxton, Meyer and Gonsalves for what he felt was a Shields type starter. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

I love this quote from Dayton Moore

 

"It's not as simple as saying, 'This is what's going to happen in Year 1 and Year 2.' That's bull. If you make enough good decisions, three-year plans turn into two-year plans and five-year plans turn into three-year plans. If you make bad decisions, 10-year plans turn into no plan."

[Riverbrian]

Here's another smaller thing to ponder:

 

Omar Infante is owed 16 million on his current contract. He is currently hitting .239 with no dingers and his butt has been placed on the bench.

 

Higher expectations and a willingness to eat some cash could be considered differences.  

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

True but that's also not that simple. 

 

Cain wasn't Cain yet. He was a light hitting defensive guy at the time of the trade and they also had Francour and Lough manning RF so OF wasn't exactly blocking Myers. 

 

Also... Let me amend my earlier question and phrase it better... like I intended. 

 

Would you want Terry Ryan?

 

Trading Buxton, Meyer and Gonsalves for what he felt was a Shields type starter. 

 

For the Twins I don't think it would look like that.  I know you're trying to match up prospect ratings the best you can, but it's hard to set up those same circumstances.

 

If the general point is - do you want him to trade a handful of the best prospects for a high end arm and some extra parts - the answer is yes.  If he's timing it to coincide with a bust out of the young players.  I think the 2017 offseason may be the ideal time for that if Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, etc. are rolling along.

 

I liked the Myers deal at the time for KC.  He was betting on his young players and he bet correctly.

[Linus]

I think the Twins true identity came from TK. He was the guy that committed to defense, pitching and making contact. I haven't seen that commitment since. If the Royals copied anything it was TK.

[jimmer]

The Twins before TF targeted pitchers that were contact pitchers.  They were less expensive than K pitchers, they also require good defensive players behind them.  Strong glove guys are often less offensive threats than offense first players.  They are also cheaper.  It was a strategy built mostly on necessity (and pure cheapness) and TK did what he could with it.  Gardy as well.

 

Now, obviously, there were some players that were exceptions, but mostly our teams were like that for a long time.

[The Wise One]

 

The Twins before TF targeted pitchers that were contact pitchers.  They were less expensive than K pitchers, they also require good defensive players behind them.  Strong glove guys are often less offensive threats than offense first players.  They are also cheaper.  It was a strategy built mostly on necessity (and pure cheapness) and TK did what he could with it.  Gardy as well.

 

Now, obviously, there were some players that were exceptions, but mostly our teams were like that for a long time.

Yet the Royals won it all last year with the best defense, one of the lowest strikeout staffs in the league, with a middling offense that managed to score runs.  TK might have understood something.  The difference between the best K/9 teams  and the worst was between 1 and 2 K/9 Leaguewise K/9 did not start creeping up until the mid 90's    That is also the timeframe for the start of the steroid era  TK's era a better defense was more important than high strikeout pitchers.  In the era of 4 or 5 strikeouts a game, not walking people was the best thing a pitcher could do. Times change, though KC has proven you do not need to be more than even league average K/9  to be successful

 

Edited June 5, 2016 by The Wise One

[Platoon]

The Twins before TF targeted pitchers that were contact pitchers.  They were less expensive than K pitchers, they also require good defensive players behind them.  Strong glove guys are often less offensive threats than offense first players.  They are also cheaper.  It was a strategy built mostly on necessity (and pure cheapness) and TK did what he could with it.  Gardy as well.

 

Now, obviously, there were some players that were exceptions, but mostly our teams were like that for a long time.

And now power has become cheap(er) and we are suddenly all about power. Or were supposed to be. I don't want Ryan trading our good young stock for a late 20's or early 30's SP. if you have to buy one, buy one. But you cannot even consider trading Buxton, Kepler, or a Sano. Comparisons? Ask the Royals how long it told Moose, Gordon, etc to get there. That always takes longer than we like. But to make the wait eventually successful, you have to be willing to take some losses, and I don't mean in the W/L column. I mean in trades, to clear blocking and dead wood. For example you can't view Dozier and Plouffe as actual 3 and 4 hitters and expect a comparable return. And Ryan does, so trades become almost impossible, financially and "emotionally". You have to bite the bullet and move. most teams who have a successful player who is struggling, give him a chance right himself. The Twins on the other hand take players without a history of success and hope they suddenly succeed. You can draw on 18 and hope you hit a 3, but the math ain't good.