Article: Mock Draft v. 2.0

[biggentleben]

 

OK.  Let's assume there are 15 elite guys and another 30 who deserve a 2m price tag or better.  The Twins pick at 15 and again at 56.  A bunch of teams have multiple picks before 56.  The Padres have four.  But the Reds, Atlanta, White Sox have three picks in the top 55.  

 

So, if there are 45 2m talents in this draft, they Twins might/should be able to get a solid pick at 15 and possibly 56 but it's unlikely that a 2m talent is sitting there at 73/74.  I do think it makes sense to be prepared to pick a guy dropping at 73 and punt a few picks if needed but I don't like the idea of the Twins going cheap at 15 and 56 b/c, even if they do, I don't think the payoff would be worth it and there's no promise that one of those players would still be on the board.  

 

What might makes sense is saving a bit here and there and sign a "tough sign" HS arm like Gonsalves who took 500k or so overslot to sign or Cabbage who took 250k more.  I expect there are a lot of HS arms who teams are fairly comfortable with knowing that the player really doesn't want to go to college so a few extra hundred grand could help albeit in not so sexy ways.

 

I don't think there are any elite guys. There are maybe 3 guys who would be guys at the back end of a top 10 most years, then 30 guys who would usually be eligible around 15ish, so 30ish guys total, not 30 from pick 15 forward. 30 guys, many of whom will end up before 15 due to the lack of higher end talent in the draft.

[tobi0040]

Kershaw is not tall and lanky, so I don't get what you are talking about right here. We are talking about stuff, that curveball is eerily similar to Kershaw's.

Physical nit picking aside. Kershaw is 95th in WAR for pitchers and he is 28 years old. Roger Clemens is #3 and Kershaw compares favorably to him.

 

Don't you think a guy with legitimate comps to him would be a clear 1-1?

[Hrbowski]

 

Physical nit picking aside. Kershaw is 95th in WAR for pitchers and he is 28 years old. Roger Clemens is #3 and Kershaw compares favorably to him.

Don't you think a guy with legitimate comps to him would be a clear 1-1?

We are talking about legitimate comps compared to when Kershaw was in HS. Kershaw wasn't viewed as a 1-1 guy, and the only reason Garrett isn't the clear cut favorite for the #1 pick is because his fastball is only 94 mph.

[tobi0040]

We are talking about legitimate comps compared to when Kershaw was in HS. Kershaw wasn't viewed as a 1-1 guy, and the only reason Garrett isn't the clear cut favorite for the #1 pick is because his fastball is only 94 mph.

Saying two 18 year olds have similarities is one thing. Saying a guy is "the next Clayton Kershaw" is another. If he was viewed as the next Clayton Kershaw, he would be the clear 1-1 like the Strasburg or Harper draft.

[biggentleben]

 

Saying two 18 year olds have similarities is one thing. Saying a guy is "the next Clayton Kershaw" is another. If he was viewed as the next Clayton Kershaw, he would be the clear 1-1 like the Strasburg or Harper draft.

 

I'd wager in a decade, there are a half-dozen draft-day Clayton Kershaws. There's one every generation that becomes Kershaw. That means maybe one every 25 becomes that guy. However, that profile even at that success rate is a better success rate than most body/skill types you can find in the draft. I won't speak for Hrbowski 100%, but I believe that's the intention of what he's saying.

[old nurse]

 

See the Cubs in 2013. Bryant still holds the record for a bonus paid in the current system, and the Cubs punted the rest of the top 10 rounds to get him. If he flopped, that whole draft is toast.

Not quite 3 years past the draft it would be foolish to call the picks punts. Maybe Epstien took a page out of the draft players by cost book that Hoyer picked up in  San Diego, but they still would be looking for potential. The draft resembles a crap shoot so anything after getting a superstar player is icing on the cake.  Plus it offers a chance to brag about being smarter.

Edited June 1, 2016 by old nurse

[old nurse]

 

You do realize that drafted players are not part of the MLBPA, right? The players gave that up last negotiation when they removed major league contracts from the draft, so the draft is of minimal consequence to the MLBPA.

The draft is part of the CBA. The draft and international signing pools involves close to 300 million dollars.  That is not insignificant to the players. The ability to have something to negotiate to he owners is not insignificant to the players. What they give up does not effect them but it does give something of value to the owners  if that total goes down

[gunnarthor]

 

The draft is part of the CBA. The draft and international signing pools involves close to 300 million dollars.  That is not insignificant to the players. The ability to have something to negotiate to he owners is not insignificant to the players. What they give up does not effect them but it does give something of value to the owners  if that total goes down

Yeah, I'm not sure how much impact the PA has but they did take up the cause of both Aiken and Nix a few years back against the Astros.

[biggentleben]

 

Yeah, I'm not sure how much impact the PA has but they did take up the cause of both Aiken and Nix a few years back against the Astros.

 

They spoke up about it, but they were unable to participate in the process at all.

[biggentleben]

My most recent full description mock

[gunnarthor]

 

They spoke up about it, but they were unable to participate in the process at all.

They filed a grievance.  I believe the CBA gave the PA the right to enforce draft disputes b/c someone had to.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/report-mlbpa-files-grievance-astros-aiken-nix-marshall/#0P4R8KXvbS7LZTPT.97

 

The grievance was on behalf of Nix (although the article also names Aiken), who settled for the Astros for over 1m dollars.  He was drafted again by the Padres and made a bit more.  Good for him.

[nicksaviking]

 

They filed a grievance.  I believe the CBA gave the PA the right to enforce draft disputes b/c someone had to.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/report-mlbpa-files-grievance-astros-aiken-nix-marshall/#0P4R8KXvbS7LZTPT.97

 

The grievance was on behalf of Nix (although the article also names Aiken), who settled for the Astros for over 1m dollars.  He was drafted again by the Padres and made a bit more.  Good for him.

 

Those guys also had a big time agent, Casey Close I believe.

 

As guys like Aiken and Close already have a pretty nice savings account due to draft bonuses, most of the other shenanigans the MLB pulls on the minor-leaguers only effect the guys that don't get big draft bonuses, and most of those guys probably don't have high-profile agents who regularly deal with MLB front offices.