Article: Mock Draft v. 2.0

[umyeahsure]

 

I would like to point out that in the MLB draft reaching is very rare. It is only a reach if you select a guy who would be available with your next pick.

By this definition there is never a reach. It would be impossible to say every other team would pass on a player. There would be no way to verify it. Obviously this is a subjective art, not a science. However, if someone consistently picks players that are rated far below the projected range, and they don't turn into MLB players, that person will lose their job.   

Exactly. Mike Soroka was looked at as a "reach" according to draft boards, but the Braves front office knew they wanted him and had good info that he wouldn't make it to their pick at #41. Of course, that "reach" would now probably be one of the first high school righties off the board if the draft was re-done a year later.

Of course there are a lot of exceptions, it is a general principle. Does Soroka prove that there is never a reach? Sometimes scouts have a unique take on a player and they are right, sometimes they are wrong. To suggest that a subjective rating obviates the objective industry estimate of draft slot is not persuasive to me. Of course, this is just my opinion :-)

[Thrylos]

 

There is a way. Scott Boras calls the Twins and says, "Garrett isn't signing for less than $4.5 million." 

 

They should still do it and underoffer  round 2, 3, and 4 picks to make it up. 

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

They should still do it and underoffer  round 2, 3, and 4 picks to make it up. 

 

While I don't disagree with a strategy like that, the current Twins brass (whether you like it or not) have always played the draft straight.

 

On another note, two well-known draft writers - Eric Longenhagen and Hudson Belinsky both tweeted about high school pitchers dropping.  Longenhagen tweeted that the Braves could be looking to cut a deal and to keep an eye on Muller, Whitley or Gowdy. He was asked if Whitley could fall that far and responded that he could if he had $3m waiting for him.

 

Shortly after that Belinsky tweeted that Manning and Wentz had high price tags and could fall to a team that had big bonus pools.

 

Regardless of all of that, the Twins just need to find one high school pitcher they like that will sign for around slot... and that's still a lot of money. It's just unusual to hear THIS MANY guys have inflating price tags. 

[biggentleben]

This is my article on how I believed the draft should be addressed in the CBA. I have some background stuff in there that could be good info as well.

[tobi0040]

Collins won't stick at catcher. Thaiss is 50/50 at best. Okey probably has the best chance to stick and I slotted him in as an underslot deal. 

 

Bats are so bad overall that Collins and Thaiss will be drafted higher with teams knowing they'll probably have to move them.

Thanks for the info

[tobi0040]

I will be really displeased if the Twins pass on Garrett. If the Braves could grab him with their second pick they have the next Kazmir in Allard and the next Kershaw in Garrett. I also like Whitley, Kirilloff, and Nolan Jones.

I rarely like comps. I think people tend to comp 18 year olds to all stars based on body type.

 

Vargas is "Little Papi" for example. Every year an 18 year old that is tall, lanky, and left handed is compared to Kershaw. I don't really mind the Kazmir comp, but Kershaw is an all time great. His ERA+ is 15 points higher than Roger Clemens. This may be his third year in four where his ERA is below 2.00.

[tobi0040]

This is my article on how I believed the draft should be addressed in the CBA. I have some background stuff in there that could be good info as well.

Absolutely fantastic article. Lots of good info and ideas.

 

I think the current system is a slight improvement upon the old. The gripe with the old system was that teams could foce players falling to them. You see that now, like Cameron last year. But the teams do have to give up something elsewhere, like taking a less player with later picks and save up money.

 

I don't really like the idea of making first round picks trade-able. I think you would see more influence of agents manipulating where their player goes. Think of when the Chargers had the top pick and the Manning family just told them he won't play there. I could see that happening a lot. A guy like Strasburg or Harper just says to the Nats, no. You need to trade the pick to team x, y, or z.

 

I think a specific dollar value to each pick is what they will do. Or add a tight floor around each pick in addition to a ceiling.

 

For me I hope they make changes because like in many other areas, other teams are winning through creativity and thinking outside the box. And we are incapable of doing that. Or "playing it straight" like the article put it.

[old nurse]

 

Fast track Jay?
Or did I misread the post?
Jay is still in A ball.
Fast tracking a college pitcher would have him knocking on the door, if not in the majors already.

Jay started in high , A and has been in the organization for less than a year. That is fast track for the Twins. Sorry the jab was too subtle.  The fast track will  become the jogging track if he doesn't move up to AA at midseason. As long as this season has felt, it is not mid season yet.   

 

Edited May 31, 2016 by old nurse

[old nurse]

 

Sure, that's the players' union side of the draft discussion. The owners' side will want to consider an international draft, curb draft manipulation, and consider the idea of post-draft college eligibility for college juniors that come into the draft, which is unique to baseball among the "big 3" sports in that baseball players retain their college eligibility if they participate in the draft rather than losing it by "declaring" for the draft.

 

However, there are ways that these things get accomplished that could affect compensation picks, as they did in the 2011 CBA, which drastically changed the compensation teams were going to get for players they had entering free agency after 2012.

Ending college eligibility for entering the draft would effectively end most  bargaining power the players have entering the system.  Owners would love that. International draft could  save the owners money. The only way the players allow those kind of changes is if they are getting something in return. The big loser would be the players drafted, work hard, but never make it to the major leagues.  Alex Wimmers may never make the majors. He at least was paid 1.3 million for his efforts.   The qualifying offer bit will change. What the players give up to get that change remains to be seen. A team getting a pick for not signing a top ranked prospect is a between club thing that I doubt will change. Too many clubs have benefited by it.

Hard values for draft positions  would clean up a lot of things. Agents will fight that tooth and nail. It would be then unlikely that a player would need an agent until they are arb eligible.  Owners would go for that in a heartbeat.

[biggentleben]

Ending college eligibility for entering the draft would effectively end most bargaining power the players have entering the system. Owners would love that. International draft could save the owners money. The only way the players allow those kind of changes is if they are getting something in return. The big loser would be the players drafted, work hard, but never make it to the major leagues. Alex Wimmers may never make the majors. He at least was paid 1.3 million for his efforts. The qualifying offer bit will change. What the players give up to get that change remains to be seen. A team getting a pick for not signing a top ranked prospect is a between club thing that I doubt will change. Too many clubs have benefited by it.

Hard values for draft positions would clean up a lot of things. Agents will fight that tooth and nail. It would be then unlikely that a player would need an agent until they are arb eligible. Owners would go for that in a heartbeat.

You do realize that drafted players are not part of the MLBPA, right? The players gave that up last negotiation when they removed major league contracts from the draft, so the draft is of minimal consequence to the MLBPA.

[HitInAPinch]

 

You're aware that Daz Cameron, the Astros third pick and the draft's 37th overall pick last year, got the fifth-biggest bonus in last year's draft right? No other team could pay him the $4m that the Astros promised him.

Smart agents with smart teams will be doing that again this year.

Actually Jeremy, I don't follow the MLB Draft that much.  Generally speaking, there isn't much instant gratification for me  

 

It sounds pretty much like I thought:  a draft setup to help poorer teams build, but exclusions that benefit teams with more money.  I read further that this doesn't happen a lot and some weird thing where teams that take advantage of this need to draft more in lower rounds?

 

Thanks, Jeremy

[diehardtwinsfan]

In this case, teams with more picks in the top 10 or with higher picks are the ones with more money.  So isn't like the Yankees are just buying everyone.  I don't mind the system.

 

As for Ben's comments.  College players have less leverage, especially seniors.  Usually those deals are worked out in advance, so the guy taking the underslot deal is agreeing to a number knowing what position he's going to be taken.

[tobi0040]

In this case, teams with more picks in the top 10 or with higher picks are the ones with more money.  So isn't like the Yankees are just buying everyone.  I don't mind the system.

 

As for Ben's comments.  College players have less leverage, especially seniors.  Usually those deals are worked out in advance, so the guy taking the underslot deal is agreeing to a number knowing what position he's going to be taken.

But players and agents are still brokering which team their guy goes to. And you have situations where the 5th best player goes 35th in the draft. So it is very similar to the old system. A slight improvement, but I think it circumvents what the draft is supposed to be about. You don't see this happen to this extreme in other sports.

 

And I have made my disclosure. The biggest gripe I have is this is about creativity and strategy. So we need to stop it immediately. We aren't good at these things.

Edited May 31, 2016 by tobi0040

[d-mac]

 

Former reliever. And his numbers are really good... including the complete-game, nine K, no walk game he threw last week.

 

I'd take Craig on an underslot deal. But he won't.

 

Dunn has a only handful of starts in his college career. I'd hardly call that a starter. I hate, hate, hate drafting relievers in the early rounds. If they think he can be a starter, they are putting an awful lot of faith in a miniscule sample size. 

[d-mac]

 

Former reliever. And his numbers are really good... including the complete-game, nine K, no walk game he threw last week.

 

I'd take Craig on an underslot deal. But he won't.

 

He's numbers are far worse than Tyler Jay's numbers his junior year. And yeah, the B1G is a worse baseball conference than the ACC, but still. Jay had half as many walks and fewer hits allowed than Dunn in 13 fewer innings so far. Plus a higher strikeout rate.

[gunnarthor]

 

But players and agents are still brokering which team their guy goes to. And you have situations where the 5th best player goes 35th in the draft. So it is very similar to the old system. A slight improvement, but I think it circumvents what the draft is supposed to be about. You don't see this happen to this extreme in other sports.

And I have made my disclosure. The biggest gripe I have is this is about creativity and strategy. So we need to stop it immediately. We aren't good at these things.

The reason the Astros were able to get Cameron is because Bregman signed for nearly 1.5m less than slot and they punted their 7-10 picks for senior signs. The Twins could shave a bit off of #15 but it would still be hard to get a second guy for 3m or more.

 

If the Twins sign get a guy a bit underslot at 15 for something like 2.5m, they'd save about 320k.  At 56, they sign the sliding guy (hoping other teams passed on him and if Mannings tag is 3m it's unlikely that other teams would pass).  The slot value of 56 is 1.14m so they'd need to come up with 1.86 or so.  The value of their 7-10 picks is 710k.  Generally, you give senior signs 10k that means they saved 670k for the #56 pick.  Less than half way there.  

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

But players and agents are still brokering which team their guy goes to. And you have situations where the 5th best player goes 35th in the draft. So it is very similar to the old system. A slight improvement, but I think it circumvents what the draft is supposed to be about. You don't see this happen to this extreme in other sports.

And I have made my disclosure. The biggest gripe I have is this is about creativity and strategy. So we need to stop it immediately. We aren't good at these things.

 

Yes, there is still brokering going on.  I think my point though is the teams who are doing the worst are the ones walking away with more talent (on average).  The Twins have 4 spots in the two rounds this year.  They can walk away with three (or four if they get lucky) higher ceiling HS tough signs if they play their cards right, and that is more than what they would get if this wasn't going on.  Lots of those kids end up in college instead.  I'm fine going on ceiling if it means taking an easy college sign with a higher pick to free up some cash for some higher ceiling guys that need developing.  Given the state of the Twins system currently, that makes a ton of sense...

 

Now what they will do on the other hand is a different story. 

[gunnarthor]

The Twins could sign a guy at 15 for 2.5 and grab the BPA at 56 and say "we'll give you 2m (the #56 slot plus a bit from 15 and our 7-10 picks) but the player doesn't have to respond.  So the team would be left wondering if the guy at 56 will sign (and punting those picks if he doesn't) or play the draft straight.  But I think it's probably a better plan to figure out your draft budget and get players that will fit it.

[biggentleben]

Starting about round 4, people start with senior signs. Any team making it to round 7 still signing guys at slot is going to be left out in the cold after the 11th round.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The reason the Astros were able to get Cameron is because Bregman signed for nearly 1.5m less than slot and they punted their 7-10 picks for senior signs. The Twins could shave a bit off of #15 but it would still be hard to get a second guy for 3m or more.

 

If the Twins sign get a guy a bit underslot at 15 for something like 2.5m, they'd save about 320k.  At 56, they sign the sliding guy (hoping other teams passed on him and if Mannings tag is 3m it's unlikely that other teams would pass).  The slot value of 56 is 1.14m so they'd need to come up with 1.86 or so.  The value of their 7-10 picks is 710k.  Generally, you give senior signs 10k that means they saved 670k for the #56 pick.  Less than half way there.  

 

The Twins have just under 6M with their first four picks.  They could quite feasibly walk away with four pretty good prep players if they played it smart. Yeah, that means no Manning at 3M (and he's probably there b/c he already has a deal in place).  Given the needs of the farm system, I think higher ceiling HS guys makes a lot of sense.  Then again, I'm not in charge of the draft

 

I think they have to punt on a higher round pick to make it work, and I'm not sure everyone will need 3M though.  I'm guessing a 1.5-2M range could get quite a few prep guys interested in going pro, especially if they agree to pay for college should a major league career not work out.  They could cut a pre-draft deal with one or two of Whitley, Wentz, or Garrett under slot in round one and over slot in 2 and then used the savings at one/punting in later rounds to pick up Rortvedt and Cooper Johnson in round 2 or 3.

 

Bottom line is that I'd be pretty ecstatic if they walked away with 4 HS guys and an easy college sign through round 3.  If they could get them for a total of just under 7M, they could do it with another easy college sign later on in the draft.  It fits the needs of their current system and you still walk away with more talent than what you would if you just grabbed your BPA at every slot (and who knows, perhaps a few of them are their BPAs anyway).

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Starting about round 4, people start with senior signs. Any team making it to round 7 still signing guys at slot is going to be left out in the cold after the 11th round.

That's not quite true.  They got Cabbage in the 4th round last year.  Kendrik and Wade both at slot last year.  They did save money on their 5th round pick (IIRC) and used it to sign Cabbage and thought they saved money on Cody but he didn't sign.  

[tobi0040]

Yes, there is still brokering going on.  I think my point though is the teams who are doing the worst are the ones walking away with more talent (on average).  The Twins have 4 spots in the two rounds this year.  They can walk away with three (or four if they get lucky) higher ceiling HS tough signs if they play their cards right, and that is more than what they would get if this wasn't going on.  Lots of those kids end up in college instead.  I'm fine going on ceiling if it means taking an easy college sign with a higher pick to free up some cash for some higher ceiling guys that need developing.  Given the state of the Twins system currently, that makes a ton of sense...

 

Now what they will do on the other hand is a different story. 

I agree so far it has by and large been the teams that are not good that have benefitted. But this slotting is relatively new. I would not put it past the Yankees, or Dodgers, or whoever to land a top 3-4 player at 25th overall. Then draft and sign their nephews in rounds 2-5 for $20k each.

 

The system is just silly. Look at the mockery the Yankees made of the international pools and penalties last year. Or how long it took to test for steriods. Or how big of a joke the old draft system used to be when you had MLB "recommeding" slot values but certain teams completely ignoring them.

 

Seems like the easy answer always takes MLB five years too long, with their third iteration. The easy answer is a specific dollar value to each pick. If you have the third pick, you know what the contract value will be, so you pick the best available guy on your board. It removes all the guesswork around signability, pre-draft deals, and brokering by agents out of the game. The third worst team gets the third best player.

Edited May 31, 2016 by tobi0040

[gunnarthor]

 

The Twins have just under 6M with their first four picks.  They could quite feasibly walk away with four pretty good prep players if they played it smart. Yeah, that means no Manning at 3M (and he's probably there b/c he already has a deal in place).  Given the needs of the farm system, I think higher ceiling HS guys makes a lot of sense.  Then again, I'm not in charge of the draft

 

I think they have to punt on a higher round pick to make it work, and I'm not sure everyone will need 3M though.  I'm guessing a 1.5-2M range could get quite a few prep guys interested in going pro, especially if they agree to pay for college should a major league career not work out.  They could cut a pre-draft deal with one or two of Whitley, Wentz, or Garrett under slot in round one and over slot in 2 and then used the savings at one/punting in later rounds to pick up Rortvedt and Cooper Johnson in round 2 or 3.

 

Bottom line is that I'd be pretty ecstatic if they walked away with 4 HS guys and an easy college sign through round 3.  If they could get them for a total of just under 7M, they could do it with another easy college sign later on in the draft.  It fits the needs of their current system and you still walk away with more talent than what you would if you just grabbed your BPA at every slot (and who knows, perhaps a few of them are their BPAs anyway).

Yes, they have 5.7m for their first 4 picks and I do think they could spread it around a bit but a lot of teams pick in between.  The Twins shouldn't go too cheap at 15.  But they could punt 76 and give 1.5 or so to both 56 and 73 or something like that.  

 

I guess I'm just not sure how many 2m talents are in this draft (or players holding out for that).  My understanding was that this draft was somewhat shallow but large.  

[Mike Sixel]

How is it good to punt 4 rounds, to pay for 1 guy? I think you underestimate the bad side of punting a pick or 4......

 

And, the easy fix, is to change the draft to be like the NFL draft, or to do something truly new and interesting and go to a combo FA/draft thing like I have previously suggested.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I agree so far it has by and large been the teams that are not good that have benefitted. But this slotting is relatively new. I would not put it past the Yankees, or Dodgers, or whoever to land a top 3-4 player at 25th overall. Then draft and sign their nephews in rounds 2-5 for $20k each.

 

 

I've got to think this would hurt more than help to be honest.  You want a draft to bring out 3 major leaguers in some capacity or not.  If that one pick is a bust, that whole class is a bust with it.  Even if that one pick is a star, it's more difficult if they get no one else with it.  Granted, NYY or LAD can go out and get that FA... assuming of course there's one out there that fits the need, and those big FA contracts are rarely benefical to the team throughout the entire deal...

[Hrbowski]

 

I rarely like comps. I think people tend to comp 18 year olds to all stars based on body type.

Vargas is "Little Papi" for example. Every year an 18 year old that is tall, lanky, and left handed is compared to Kershaw. I don't really mind the Kazmir comp, but Kershaw is an all time great. His ERA+ is 15 points higher than Roger Clemens. This may be his third year in four where his ERA is below 2.00.

Kershaw is not tall and lanky, so I don't get what you are talking about right here. We are talking about stuff, that curveball is eerily similar to Kershaw's.

[biggentleben]

That's not quite true. They got Cabbage in the 4th round last year. Kendrik and Wade both at slot last year. They did save money on their 5th round pick (IIRC) and used it to sign Cabbage and thought they saved money on Cody but he didn't sign.

I'm not talking Twins only. Throughout the draft, that will start in round four with more and more teams joining in the next round. I was just stating that rarely is a team going chalk to 7.

[biggentleben]

I've got to think this would hurt more than help to be honest. You want a draft to bring out 3 major leaguers in some capacity or not. If that one pick is a bust, that whole class is a bust with it. Even if that one pick is a star, it's more difficult if they get no one else with it. Granted, NYY or LAD can go out and get that FA... assuming of course there's one out there that fits the need, and those big FA contracts are rarely benefical to the team throughout the entire deal...

See the Cubs in 2013. Bryant still holds the record for a bonus paid in the current system, and the Cubs punted the rest of the top 10 rounds to get him. If he flopped, that whole draft is toast.

[biggentleben]

Yes, they have 5.7m for their first 4 picks and I do think they could spread it around a bit but a lot of teams pick in between. The Twins shouldn't go too cheap at 15. But they could punt 76 and give 1.5 or so to both 56 and 73 or something like that.

 

I guess I'm just not sure how many 2m talents are in this draft (or players holding out for that). My understanding was that this draft was somewhat shallow but large.

The draft is deep in second or third tier guys, but doesn't have those elite talents that fit at the top. I could see 30 guys or so that would make sense as a pick in the 15-30 range of an average draft. Hence, you're seeing a lot of $2-3M price tags

[gunnarthor]

 

The draft is deep in second or third tier guys, but doesn't have those elite talents that fit at the top. I could see 30 guys or so that would make sense as a pick in the 15-30 range of an average draft. Hence, you're seeing a lot of $2-3M price tags

OK.  Let's assume there are 15 elite guys and another 30 who deserve a 2m price tag or better.  The Twins pick at 15 and again at 56.  A bunch of teams have multiple picks before 56.  The Padres have four.  But the Reds, Atlanta, White Sox have three picks in the top 55.  

 

So, if there are 45 2m talents in this draft, they Twins might/should be able to get a solid pick at 15 and possibly 56 but it's unlikely that a 2m talent is sitting there at 73/74.  I do think it makes sense to be prepared to pick a guy dropping at 73 and punt a few picks if needed but I don't like the idea of the Twins going cheap at 15 and 56 b/c, even if they do, I don't think the payoff would be worth it and there's no promise that one of those players would still be on the board.  

 

What might makes sense is saving a bit here and there and sign a "tough sign" HS arm like Gonsalves who took 500k or so overslot to sign or Cabbage who took 250k more.  I expect there are a lot of HS arms who teams are fairly comfortable with knowing that the player really doesn't want to go to college so a few extra hundred grand could help albeit in not so sexy ways.