Article: Mock Draft v. 2.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Every year the draft looks like it's going to turn into a mess. And then it's always worse the following year. Last year, the Astros were able to work a deal with Daz Cameron, pushing him out of the first round and into their laps. But as unpredictable as it was made out to be, the other members of the top six of my first mock draft all went in the top five (and I matched them all to the right team, except one).This year, you can't find a consensus top pick or a consensus top three. I reached out to a number of scouts for feedback on this mock and/or other things that are being talked about in the industry:

 

"I have no clue."

 

"I honestly have no idea."

 

"Anything could happen."

 

I'll share some of things that I'm hearing right now on Gleeman and the Geek, but some of the big things that seem destined to happen: Teams with big pools will cut deals with prep pitchers to drop to their second pick. College arms are making a late surge. After the top guys, college bats are bad... but teams might also reach for a bat just to get one they consider to be quality. (And guys that have had big days recently or have big days leading up to the draft will make themselves some money.)

 

There's still a lot to consider. And still a lot of time left for things to sort themselves out.

 

Here’s my second-to-last mock draft.

 

1. Phillies - A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida. The Phillies could easily - and maybe should - open up the pick and take the player that allows them to bank a bunch of money, but as it stands, Puk is the best way to go when you balance risk/reward. There are still other names in play, including Nick Senzel, who I’ve been told has been watched heavily by the Phillies though being represented by Scott Boras lessens the chances he agrees to an underslot deal.

 

2. Reds - Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. The Reds are also in a great position to bank dollars. Expect them to draft the top bat available and cut a deal to draft a high school pitcher at #35.

 

3. Braves - Corey Ray, OF, Louisville. Like the teams above them, the Braves have dollar flexibility too. The Braves have a few more picks (#40, #44, #76) on the first day too that they can get creative with.

 

4. Rockies - Jason Groome, LHP, New Jersey prep. There’s been ton of Moniak talk, but it’s hard for the Rockies to pass on pitchers… since nobody wants to pitch at Coors. I’ve been told Groome is the wild card of this draft and to not be surprised if takes an Appel-like tumble.

 

5. Brewers - Delvin Perez, SS, Puerto Rico prep. This has long been a connection, though there are others that have moved into the picture.

 

6. A’s - Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee. Whichever of the top five (and also Moniak) could go here.

 

7. Marlins - Mickey Moniak, OF, California prep. Moniak going higher than this could help a team bank some money for a later pick.

 

8. Padres - Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford. Lots of talk that Quantrill has a deal with Padres at #24. That doesn’t make sense to me. Draft Quantrill at #8 and take one of the high price tag guys at #24. Regardless, Padres are going to leave the draft with two or three top talents.

 

9. Tigers - Riley Pint, RHP, Kansas prep. Pint can’t drop forever and the Tigers would be wise to take this big arm.

 

10. White Sox - Blake Rutherford, OF, California prep.

 

11. Mariners - Zack Collins, C, Miami

 

12. Red Sox - Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville. I don’t love this pick here, but when I was trying to piece my mock together, one scout told me this pick made “perfect sense.”

 

13. Rays - Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State. Could have the best stuff of any college arm, but has command issues.

 

14. Indians - Alex Kirilloff, OF, Pennsylvania prep.

 

15. Twins - Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College. If either of Hudson or Kirilloff made it here, I think they’d be the guys. I also think the Twins could jump on Quantrill if he made it this far. The other arms connected to the team - Braxton Garrett, Matt Manning, etc - could all find themselves sliding (on purpose) to the teams who have banked money. Dunn offers the highest upside of the college arms available.

 

16. Angels - Taylor Trammell, OF, Georgia prep.

 

17. Astros - Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois.

 

18. Yankees - Will Craig, 3B, Wake Forest.

 

19. Mets - Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia.

 

20. Dodgers - Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt.

 

21. Blue Jays - Kevin Gowdy, RHP, California prep.

 

22. Pirates - Nolan Jones, SS, Pennsylvania prep.

 

23. Cardinals - Kyle Muller, LHP, Texas prep.

 

24. Padres - Matt Manning, RHP, California prep. I’ve long been of the belief that Manning’s floor was the Twins. Saturday I was told what other national guys have been saying, he’s got a high price tag, one that is higher than the Twins slot can get done. The Padres, however, have saved some money that they can spend on Manning.

 

25. Padres - Chris Okey, C, Clemson. For the Padres to fit Manning in their budget, they might have to cut an underslot deal here too. I went with Okey because, you know, catchers.

 

26. White Sox - Gavin Lux, SS, Wisconsin prep.

 

27. Orioles - Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State.

 

28. Nationals - Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia.

 

29. Nationals - Alec Hansen, RHP, Oklahoma.

 

30. Rangers - Josh Lowe, 3B, Georgia prep.

 

31. Mets - T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh

 

32. Dodgers - Joey Wentz, LHP, Kansas HS. Wentz would have to come in overslot, which could be difficult, but this gives the Dodgers the best opportunity to add a high-ceiling arm… that they can trade later.

 

33. Cardinals - Buddy Reed, OF, Florida.

 

34. Cardinals - Logan Shore, RHP, Florida. Shore continues to strike me as someone that the Cardinals will draft.

 

---

Bonus picks

 

35. Reds - Forrest Whitley, RHP, Texas prep. Whitley should be on the Twins radar, but he could be guaranteed an excess of $3 million by the Reds here.

 

40. Braves - Ian Anderson, RHP, New York prep. Braves have been rumored to be working on a “package” deal: bat at #3 and arm here.

 

42. Phillies - Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama prep. Garrett could go Top 10, but if the Phillies play their cards correctly, the could split their $10.5 million allotted to their top 2 picks and pay one $6 million and another $4.5 million (which is more than slot at #5).

 

What do you think?

 

Click here to view the article

[biggentleben]

I'd just be very, very surprised to hear Ray come out of Atlanta. Same thing with Senzel. The word I got all spring until their org guys were instructed to "go dark" in mid-May was that the hitter list for #3 was Lewis or a high school hitter, no other college hitter was in play at the pick.

[Hrbowski]

I will be really displeased if the Twins pass on Garrett. If the Braves could grab him with their second pick they have the next Kazmir in Allard and the next Kershaw in Garrett. I also like Whitley, Kirilloff, and Nolan Jones.

[umyeahsure]

Wow, Dunn would be like a replay of last year. I was not a huge fan of picking Jay. He's a former closer, like Jay. I would prefer a high ceiling high school arm, or maybe Hudson drops to us. The Twins lovercollege closers though....

[old nurse]

Johnson has been drafting for a few years now.  Dozier,  Darnell, Hermann, Duffey, Rosario, Dean, Hicks,  Gibson, Berios and Buxton have seen the major leagues..  Lots of potential in the minors with Jay, Gordon, and Kohl. Then there is what is  outside of the first rounders, Chargois, Turner, Gonsalves, Cabbage and Burdi get some rankings as prospects.  A few other prospects get some love from other sources, but the draft record is not so good.

 

 

[old nurse]

Draft strategy by Johnson appears to target the higher ceiling HS players first round. Jay was the exception. He appears to be someone they could fast track to the majors.  If there is a player at 15 that will be able to fast track they will take that player. otherwise they will take the highest ceiling   high school player

Edited May 30, 2016 by old nurse

[old nurse]

I would also add with draft pools it would not be unreasonable to draft the hard to sign player. If he does not sign they get a pick next year, thus increasing their pool and flexibility. 

[tobi0040]

I didn't think catchers were going to be in the 15 range. We now have 11, 19, and 25. Any shot we take one?

[biggentleben]

 

I would also add with draft pools it would not be unreasonable to draft the hard to sign player. If he does not sign they get a pick next year, thus increasing their pool and flexibility. 

 

That is true only if they keep the same system when they renegotiate the CBA this offseason, and the draft is absolutely going to be a major discussion point in the upcoming CBA.

[umyeahsure]

I agree with old nurse. I assume new rules would apply to future drafts. Speaking of comp picks. Looks like Kyle Cody lost some money. And as a senior he will have little leverage. Ouch. If Braxton Garrett is available at 15, I hope they draft him.

[old nurse]

 

That is true only if they keep the same system when they renegotiate the CBA this offseason, and the draft is absolutely going to be a major discussion point in the upcoming CBA.

Any change to the draft would be to the extent on how the rules take money from the players, specifically free agent compensation. Picks for not signing picks do not cost the players money.  Trading of draft picks might come into play if the union figures that it will increase teams taking risks on signing free agents. Increasing competitive balance picks might be something pushed as it gives something to the bad teams at the expense of the wealthy teams. The wealthier teams then spend more money (well maybe).

. In the end for the union it is first and foremost money to them first. They learned it from the owners

Edited May 30, 2016 by old nurse

[biggentleben]

 

Any change to the draft would be to the extent on how the rules take money from the players, specifically free agent compensation. Picks for not signing picks do not cost the players money.  Trading of draft picks might come into play if the union figures that it will increase teams taking risks on signing free agents. Increasing competitive balance picks might be something pushed as it gives something to the bad teams at the expense of the wealthy teams. The wealthier teams then spend more money (well maybe).

. In the end for the union it is first and foremost money to them first. They learned it from the owners

 

Sure, that's the players' union side of the draft discussion. The owners' side will want to consider an international draft, curb draft manipulation, and consider the idea of post-draft college eligibility for college juniors that come into the draft, which is unique to baseball among the "big 3" sports in that baseball players retain their college eligibility if they participate in the draft rather than losing it by "declaring" for the draft.

 

However, there are ways that these things get accomplished that could affect compensation picks, as they did in the 2011 CBA, which drastically changed the compensation teams were going to get for players they had entering free agency after 2012.

[Mr. Brooks]

Draft strategy by Johnson appears to target the higher ceiling HS players first round. Jay was the exception. He appears to be someone they could fast track to the majors. If there is a player at 15 that will be able to fast track they will take that player. otherwise they will take the highest ceiling high school player

Fast track Jay?

Or did I misread the post?

Jay is still in A ball.

Fast tracking a college pitcher would have him knocking on the door, if not in the majors already.

[Thrylos]

There is no way that the Twins should pass on Garrett if he is available there, based on the shape of the LHSP in the organization. 

No way. 

 

Edited May 31, 2016 by ChiTownTwinsFan

[HitInAPinch]

"Teams with big pools will cut deals with prep pitchers to drop to their second pick."

 

Can someone explain this to me?  Sounds a little fishy..

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I'd just be very, very surprised to hear Ray come out of Atlanta. Same thing with Senzel. The word I got all spring until their org guys were instructed to "go dark" in mid-May was that the hitter list for #3 was Lewis or a high school hitter, no other college hitter was in play at the pick.

 

As price tags of guys are coming out, teams have begun to re-evaluate earlier plans. You know more about the Braves thinking, to be sure, but what I've heard is that college bats and college arms continuing to climb up the draft.

 

They could go Pint, which wouldn't be terrible.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I will be really displeased if the Twins pass on Garrett. If the Braves could grab him with their second pick they have the next Kazmir in Allard and the next Kershaw in Garrett. I also like Whitley, Kirilloff, and Nolan Jones.

 

The Twins love Garrett and would love for him to be available at #15. But he's a Vandy and Boras guy, so it's increasingly likely that if he's "available", it's because of a high asking price the Twins wouldn't be able to match. He would be a steal at $2.8m at #15.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I would also add with draft pools it would not be unreasonable to draft the hard to sign player. If he does not sign they get a pick next year, thus increasing their pool and flexibility. 

 

We hit on this in the extra session on GatG yesterday. I don't think anyone in the organization feels completely secure in the future of their job. It would be really hard to flub up your first-round pick when your team is historically bad and you might lose your job.

[d-mac]

Another college reliever? Gross. One with middling numbers? Double gross. I still like the idea of cutting an underslot deal with a Will Craig or Matt Thais and use the savings for some upside high schoolers later in the draft.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I didn't think catchers were going to be in the 15 range. We now have 11, 19, and 25. Any shot we take one?

 

Collins won't stick at catcher. Thaiss is 50/50 at best. Okey probably has the best chance to stick and I slotted him in as an underslot deal. 

 

Bats are so bad overall that Collins and Thaiss will be drafted higher with teams knowing they'll probably have to move them.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

That is true only if they keep the same system when they renegotiate the CBA this offseason, and the draft is absolutely going to be a major discussion point in the upcoming CBA.

 

re CBA talk

 

There is NO WAY the system doesn't change. It gives a huge advantage to the teams with the biggest pools and turns the draft into somewhat of a mockery. Everyone will be pushing to change it. Yeah, you'll still get comp picks if your guy doesn't sign.

 

What they should do is hard cap every pick and make players declare for the draft. Of course, then you'll get agents working to package players. There's no perfect way to solve the problem. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

There is no way that the Twins should pass on Garrett if he is available there, based on the shape of the LHSP in the organization. 

No way. 

 

 

There is a way. Scott Boras calls the Twins and says, "Garrett isn't signing for less than $4.5 million." 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

"Teams with big pools will cut deals with prep pitchers to drop to their second pick."

 

Can someone explain this to me?  Sounds a little fishy..

You're aware that Daz Cameron, the Astros third pick and the draft's 37th overall pick last year, got the fifth-biggest bonus in last year's draft right? No other team could pay him the $4m that the Astros promised him.

Smart agents with smart teams will be doing that again this year.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Another college reliever? Gross. One with middling numbers? Double gross. I still like the idea of cutting an underslot deal with a Will Craig or Matt Thais and use the savings for some upside high schoolers later in the draft.

 

Former reliever. And his numbers are really good... including the complete-game, nine K, no walk game he threw last week.

 

I'd take Craig on an underslot deal. But he won't.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

So the Twins don't have more than one first-round pick, but they have several lower in the top 100. Is that just not enough money to take a high-price-tag guy at 15 and save with lower-bonus guys at the later picks?

Or is it a question of spreading risk across the picks versus counting more on the first pick to work out?

[biggentleben]

 

re CBA talk

 

There is NO WAY the system doesn't change. It gives a huge advantage to the teams with the biggest pools and turns the draft into somewhat of a mockery. Everyone will be pushing to change it. Yeah, you'll still get comp picks if your guy doesn't sign.

 

What they should do is hard cap every pick and make players declare for the draft. Of course, then you'll get agents working to package players. There's no perfect way to solve the problem. 

 

That's pretty much what I said in my article on Call To The Pen a couple weeks ago when I looked at what should be changed.

[biggentleben]

 

Former reliever. And his numbers are really good... including the complete-game, nine K, no walk game he threw last week.

 

I'd take Craig on an underslot deal. But he won't.

 

I'm wondering where the idea of college player = under slot has come from. Especially lately, a college bat putting up big numbers is going to get paid very well, and they usually get drafted far beyond their actual ability. Craig is probably only the 35th-50th best player in the draft, depending on your evaluations, but there's every possibility he could go top 10.

[umyeahsure]

 

Former reliever. And his numbers are really good... including the complete-game, nine K, no walk game he threw last week.

 

I'd take Craig on an underslot deal. But he won't.

 

Part of the problem with taking a player with very little track record is magnifying the importance of one performance. This can lead to bad picks. Now, maybe Dunn turns out to be a stud- if we draft him i hope he does. But it seems like a reach. MLB draft is a lot different then the NFL draft, teams fall in love with a players that seem to be reaches. It's been a contested issue on this forum- Twins drafting relievers and thinking they will be starters. Of course BC started the transition for us.

 

 

 

The Twins love Garrett and would love for him to be available at #15. But he's a Vandy and Boras guy, so it's increasingly likely that if he's "available", it's because of a high asking price the Twins wouldn't be able to match. He would be a steal at $2.8m at #15.

Draft him and if they don't want to sign- how much money does Boras get? The Twins still get a comp pick. 

[Hrbowski]

I would like to point out that in the MLB draft reaching is very rare. It is only a reach if you select a guy who would be available with your next pick.

[biggentleben]

 

I would like to point out that in the MLB draft reaching is very rare. It is only a reach if you select a guy who would be available with your next pick.

 

Exactly. Mike Soroka was looked at as a "reach" according to draft boards, but the Braves front office knew they wanted him and had good info that he wouldn't make it to their pick at #41. Of course, that "reach" would now probably be one of the first high school righties off the board if the draft was re-done a year later.