Article: Sell, Sell, Sell: A Look At Twins Trade Chips

[Nick Nelson]

One advantage to falling out of postseason contention within the first two months of the season is that it enables a team like the Minnesota Twins to clearly establish itself as a seller well ahead of the trade deadline.In this age of multiple wild card entrants, the vast majority of clubs around baseball are fancying themselves postseason contenders. This makes the market more favorable for teams in such a position as Minnesota's. Trade partners will generally give up a bit more to acquire help in June than July, for obvious reasons, and the Twins have no real reason to wait around.

 

Unfortunately, in accordance with the "Total System Failure" framework of this 2016 season, nearly every player who looked like a potentially attractive trade chip has scuffled and drained his value. This is particularly painful in a few key spots, as we'll discuss below.

 

It's not all bad, though. There won't be any blockbuster swap that brings back elite talent, but there are a few intriguing possibilities to be considered. Let's break down the roster and see where things stand as we head into June.

 

CATCHER: It's possible that someone could take interest in Kurt Suzuki as a backup but the Twins have no usable alternative to fall back on and Suzuki's .570 OPS wouldn't fetch much anyway. This is a position where the Twins should solely be looking to add, not subtract.

 

INFIELD: Eduardo Nunez is the hot name here. He is enjoying a very strong year, with a .314/.347/.482 slash line, and while it seems a bit flukish, he has continued to hit into late May and is also coming off a 2015 season in which he posted a career-high OPS. He doesn't turn 29 for a month. Combine the clear upward offensive trajectory with his defensive versatility, and Nunez could garner some real interest. Trevor Plouffe will be much discussed because he's on a one-year commitment and dealing him would open third base for Miguel Sano, but unfortunately he's playing terribly. Would Terry Ryan ship out Plouffe, a former first-round pick and a core veteran staple, for a mid-level prospect? At this point it's not unthinkable. Parting with Brian Dozier or Eduardo Escobar would open a spot for Jorge Polanco but neither has done anything to create a market.

 

OUTFIELD: Ryan won't even think about giving up Sano, Byron Buxton or Max Kepler, and rightfully so. Trading Eddie Rosario over the offseason would have been a good idea if the opportunity arose, but now he has turned into a pumpkin. I actually think Danny Santana might attract some suitors as a bench piece because he can play several positions and offers plenty of speed, but he won't bring back anything special.

 

ROTATION: The only rotation members who would have any credibility as trade candidates are Tyler Duffey and Ervin Santana, but the Twins can't really afford to lose either of them at this point considering how things have played out with the rest of the starters. It would have been really nice if Ricky Nolasco could have kept up his April pace and made himself appealing to a team needing a fifth starter, but alas, it looks like the only way he's leaving is by DFA.

 

BULLPEN: This one hurts. There are many contenders looking for help in the bullpen, including the Red Sox (who just lost key setup man Carson Smith for the season) and the Rangers (who are second in the West but have the worst bullpen ERA in the AL). Depressingly, every reliever that might have brought back a decent haul has inspired no confidence. At the top of that list is Kevin Jepsen, who is pitching as poorly as he ever has, because of course. Trevor May has melted down this month, as has Ryan Pressly to a lesser extent. Michael Tonkin doesn't have a big-league track record. Fernando Abad has been the bullpen's best performer but as a lefty specialist with an uneven history, he's not the kind of arm that commands a meaningful return.

 

SUMMARY

Even in circumstances like these, where major shakeups are warranted, it's simply not good strategy to be trading assets with depressed value. That rules out the idea of flipping someone like Dozier or Glen Perkins (if he ever gets healthy). No one is taking those contracts and giving up anything. Nunez looks like a nice chip if he keeps hitting, and Santana might bring back a Single-A type, but there aren't many other opportunities to build a marketplace.

 

Plouffe is going to be the most interesting case. On the one hand, it would be a shame to sell low on someone who's been a very solid player over the years. On the other hand, Sano needs to get out of right field, and it's not clear Plouffe is in the team's plans beyond 2016. It might end up being a "take what you can get" scenario.

 

As it happens, the defending champs just lost third baseman Mike Moustakas for the year to a torn ACL. It wouldn't be a bad thing for Plouffe to get on a hot streak, as he is wont to do.

 

What are your thoughts? If you were in the GM's chair, what would be your approach as the trade deadline draws nearer?

 

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[jokin]

Ryan has pretty much never demonstrated the ability to sell high... so... as your article suggests- the next couple months seem to be right in his bailiwick- there's an absolute cornucopia of guys he can sell low on!

 

Unfortunately, he also isn't good at reading which of his top prospects are more likely to bust- he leans to keeping all of them to the brink, by default. In the meantime, he's facing an imminent roster crunch as far as whom to protect and who to expose- there are close to 5 guys on the 40-man right now who are, at best, years away from the majors. So, making a more impactful deal with one of the top prospects at AA and/or AAA thrown in- even if Ryan could pull it off, in return for a handful of new prospects, means potentially even more roster crunch and maybe multiple years more of necessary evaluation, or else more serviceable players lost via FA- a mess any way they slice it.

[Rosterman]

When looking at ALL of the names above, and many of them should be moved sooner rather than later, the Twins also have to look at their depth in the farm system, especially at names of guys who will become minor league free agents, who need to be added to the 40-man roster not only this year but also the following year, and deal some of those names as well...since there are only 40 names you can protect in 2017 as well as 2018. 

 

That is the secret. Create the list of guys YOU EXPECT will come to camp and break camp next year. And also a possible list of players coming to camp in 2018.

They start packaging players. You might have to package a fringe prospect or two to rid yourself of some salary. Some teams may be willing to take on a Jepsen thinking a change of scenery may help, or jsut for depth.

 

Yes, I'm sure that little angel on Ryan's shoulder is telling him to NOT EAT SALARY while the devil is on the other shoulder telling him to just go ahead and release the guys...you won't be around in 2017 except as a roving scout of talent, if you don't get outright fired and jump to another team...many of which will seek your scouting services, I'm sure.

 

the Twins have to look for returns of prospects that are on the bubble because of the need for work, or guys jsut behind in anyother teams depth chart.

 

I mean, look at the Twins. Right now we have Escobar and Nunez, bother should be available. We have Polanco, who could play short, move to second eventually, or become a utility guy. We have Beresford who could be a temp 40-man backup this year AND next. We have at least four guys in the shortstop depth, with Nick Gordon possibly fast-tracked and Wander Javier at least four years out from getting a taste of major league life. So we have lots of depth (shades of too many centerfielders notice of the past).

 

But, yes, you have to look at the very big picture. The Twins have drafted a lot of bodies the past four years who are on the cusp of needing protection. Other teams are watching and salviating at who the Twins will leave open for Rule 5. The Twins trick is to move some of these possibilities for something, with soemthing of lesser value, to clear books AS WELL AS roster space.

 

You take Nolasco. You get a couple of higher prospects (guys we can't protect), we get a couple of guys we need to protect in 2019 or 2020. We free up salary. We move our own prospects up for a slice of major league life. We suck, but we such with rookies and the future, not just guys filling roster spots that other teams have already found no place in the home for now or ever again.

[BD57]

When a team is playing as poorly as the Twins have been, there's very little on the Major League Roster that's going to be attractive 7/31 trade bait.

 

What the Twins need is a number of guys to get on a roll for the next 6-7 weeks . . . enough to create some value.

 

If what we've seen continues, we might was well bring up the kids & let them learn in the Bigs.

[tobi0040]

I predict 1-2 trades. One by the deadline and another for cash in mid August.

 

Nothing of value in return

[Winston Smith]

I think Plouffe would be a good fit for the Mets. They need a 1B and their 3B is made of glass. My guess is Terry would hold out for Wheeler.

[tobi0040]

Touché Winston

[Steve J]

I don't see any of their 'chips' being cashed in for more than a C+ prospect.  

[jorgenswest]

Teams are too smart to get swayed by hot and cold streaks. Suzuki had a great first half in 2014 but teams look at multiple years when they project the second half. He didn't increase his value to anyone beyond the Twins. Streaks are not going to change the reality that the Twins have little veteran value to deal.

 

Dozier and Plouffe will have more value than Nunez. Winning teams value defensive skill and owning several gloves isn't the same as defensive versatility. I can't imagine any winning team would play him in the middle of the infield with any regularity.

 

Jepsen will be a free agent. While he closes for the Twins, he had the value of a 7th inning guy last year with a year and a half of control. Now he is a 7th guy that is a rental.

 

It will be hard to find a taker for Santana's contract. There will be little if any competition for his contract driving down any perceived value.

 

For Suzuki, Nolasco and Hughes, it is probably place on waivers and hope for a claim. If someone makes the mistake of claiming as the Orioles did with Willingham, the Twins must let them go (as they should have with Willingham).

[curt1965]

Let's face it: the only players other teams would be interested in-Berrios, Gorden, Stewart, Gonsalves, and Jay- are in the minors!

[jokin]

 

I don't see any of their 'chips' being cashed in for more than a C+ prospect.  

 

I think you over-estimate most of our chips.

[David HK]

I have to echo a lot of the comments here.  The only really valuable chips we have are not on the ML club.  And heck, if it boils down to a C-level prospect as opposed to just DFA'ing a guy (Nolasco, looking at you), take whatever the heck we can get.

 

Again, the time to deal Plouffe or Rosario, for example, was when the snow was still on the ground.  Sadly, their output just melted away when the weather warmed up.

[PopRiveter]

I really think Plouffe would have some value to the Royals. He's a known commodity. He isn't all that far off his career norms, which are good- beyond what you can expect from Cheslor Cuthbert, and he's still cheap. I don't know what they'd offer in return, but they have to have some bullpen arms that are blocked, don't they?

[mumoo13]

How about trading Park? Unlike most other players his value could be at a higher point, and it would open up space for Vargas or Walker.

[Shane Wahl]

They have to package in mid-level prospects of their own to get valuable prospects back. And Vargas.

 

Plouffe and Vargas might be something for the Royals to look at. The Mets might like Plouffe and Abad.

 

It's hard to know what to do when they haven't played the young guys enough and promoted from below to higher levels in the system. And the damn injuries.

[Steve J]

 

They have to package in mid-level prospects of their own to get valuable prospects back. And Vargas.

 

Plouffe and Vargas might be something for the Royals to look at. The Mets might like Plouffe and Abad.

 

It's hard to know what to do when they haven't played the young guys enough and promoted from below to higher levels in the system. And the damn injuries.

 

It's really tough to get someone to bite on quantity when asking them to give up quality in prospect for prospect trades.  Rarely happens.

 

and Vargas has about as much value as any other random player with AAAA upside...

[Platoon]

Personally I think the trading criteria should be "how can I straighten out our own roster, and our 40 man" not what can I get in return. If you are waiting for return on this years version of the Twins, next years will look much the same.TR is either going to have to acquire some proactive agression from somewhere, or about the best you can hope for is Buxton, a couple middle of the pen moves, and maybe Kepler. That is not going to solve the Twins!

[nytwinsfan]

Well that was a depressing read.

[Boom Boom]

Some work needs to be done to clean up the roster. The team is too bad to have logjam issues. No mention of Arcia?

[mazeville]

That is depressing. 

 

I would trade Plouffe simply to open a spot for Sano. Even at his peak performance Plouffe wouldn't generate much of a return, so this is simply a trade to get some return now and open up the outfield logjam and improve outfield defense.

 

I would definitely trade Ervin Santana. While the Twins "need" pitching they do not "need" Santana. He would actually command at least something on the open market and the Twins should probably open up some space for pitchers like Alex Meyer or Jose Berrios.

 

I would also trade Abad and Nunez. And I would look to trade Dozier in the offseason after some hoped-for improvement.

 

I don't know that TR would do all of these. But I would expect a couple of trades from the Twins. 

 

It's all horrible.

[DaveW]

Gibson is my dark horse to be traded and actually bring back something of value. If Gibby can get back on the field and string together a few solid starts he should be the first guy the Twins shop aggressively.

I would be shopping Ervin Santana aggressively as well.

 

I would also be fielding offers on Park, who could bring back the absolute most in a trade as well, I would have to be blown away by an offer, but I think he could fetch a really nice return.

Edited May 27, 2016 by DaveW

[Blake]

 

Personally I think the trading criteria should be "how can I straighten out our own roster, and our 40 man" not what can I get in return. If you are waiting for return on this years version of the Twins, next years will look much the same.TR is either going to have to acquire some proactive agression from somewhere, or about the best you can hope for is Buxton, a couple middle of the pen moves, and maybe Kepler. That is not going to solve the Twins!

Yeah, I think you're right, the criteria needs to be clearing space on the 40 man.

 

 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Plouffe = core veteran player.

 

That equation pretty much sums up the state of the team. Plouffe is nothing more than an average to below average major leaguer. He was one of the better players on some awful Twins teams over the past few seasons. The FO lost perspective and decided he warranted screwing with one of their (and baseball's) top prospects.

 

I predict no trades before the last week of July. To call this FO trade & risk averse would be a major understatement.

 

The article was filled with players that would have been traded when their stocks were highest by any decent GM with a good feel for his players and the situations of other teams.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

At this point, the roster needs to be completetly flipped.

 

The market value of a player should not determine if he is moved or not. Selling low is now all that is left because of past mistakes by the FO. The top priority is to clear room for the young prospects.

 

Move as many veterans as you can! No matter the return.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

That is the secret. Create the list of guys YOU EXPECT will come to camp and break camp next year. And also a possible list of players coming to camp in 2018.

They start packaging players. You might have to package a fringe prospect or two to rid yourself of some salary.

 

This is 100% how it should be done, but it would require planning and for this 20+ seasons of ru(i)nning this team Ryan has shown that:

 

a. he just cannot do it (esp. trade prospects with value)

b. he overestimates the abilities of his players (eg. Dozier, Plouffe)

c. he will never sell high because he thinks that the high will continue.

 

Everyone in this team other than Sano should be tradable.  Will he do it?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Vargas actually might be one to add here.  It might take a bit of work to make it fit, but there's little room for him here.  I could see him being packaged with someone to potentially get a bigger return.  It would have to be a good fit though.  Otherwise, they have Mauer, Park, Arcia, and Vargas all on the roster next year for 1B/DH.  I wouldn't mind Kennys as an occasional bench bat, but that really diminishes his value. 

 

As for Trades:

 

Some of this sell high thing is rather ridiculous on it's face.  You want to keep the guys performing as they are part of the core.  Knowing which ones will fall flat on their face requires a crystal ball that I'm pretty sure none of us have, and if you sold high on everyone, you're always selling.  That's not a good place to be either.  Suzuki might be the obvious exception, but based on the rumors at the time, he wasn't going to net much, so I really don't understand the complaint.  I trust Ryan in that he isn't going to let guys go without getting value.  He certainly sold high on Revere, and I doubt he'd have gotten a better return on Span. 

 

Not really sure Plouffe had much value this offseason.  It's not like it would have been selling high.  Frasier got squat, and he was a much better chip.  I'm guessing whatever Plouffe could have netted last December would still be an option next month, and it won't be much.  I'd ship him off. Not expecting a return there though.

 

Not certain I agree on Nunez.  He's got arb years left (I think), which makes him attractive.  His bat is a difference up the middle.  Not so much on the glove, but for a team desperate for help, he's a nice short term plug in for a couple years.  That is valuable.  I personally wouldn't mind keeping him around as a bench bat/utility player, but I could see someone offering enough to make it work.

 

I don't see why Abad won't be traded.  yeah, he's going to get a C/C+ prospect, but that's exactly what you do with minor league signings such as Abad.  If Boshers does well over the next month, he's on that list too. 

 

I'm not sure I'd part with either Rosario or DanSan at the moment.  Neither have a ton of value and both I think are worth more to the org here right now.  I doubt Rosario had a ton of value this offseason, and given the OF defense issues, trading him this last offseason would have been pretty short sighted anyways.  Both have shown promise, and having a bit of a surplus here can be valuable in giving guys ML time but providing depth in the event a guy like Kepler comes up and does really bad at first. 

 

Baring a string of decent starts, Nolasco gets DFAd at some point.  If he gets hot for June, I could see him being shipped off for something (again very little), but I'd take what return I could get as the alternative will be eating the full contract and watching him sign a make good deal elsewhere.

 

Suzuki is cheap.  Yeah, he's not good, but he costs pretty much nothing and his option won't vest.  I think you could get a C prospect for him from a team desperate at C.  Heck, Butera and Herrman got decent prospects. 

 

I would not trade Park.  Sorry, he's looking like the real deal. 

 

I think the big thing to remember is that teams rarely dump 5 guys at the deadline.  There just aren't that many deals.  We should be able to declutter a few guys from the 40 man, and that's good.  But just as I think it's unrealistic to expect to see a ton of guys moving.  I'd say that trading 2 by the deadline and maybe a 3rd in August is a pretty reasonable expectation.  Who those are, I have no idea. 

 

As for targeting, I'd probably go after guys in A ball/rookie leagues.  There's more risk with them, so you can get a higher ceiling (to a point).  We don't have a lot of near term 40 man slots and the lower minors are not as stocked as the high minors.  Only exception to that is if someone had a blocked catching prospect in the high minors.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I have been pretty quiet about trading Plouffe because I saw this team as weak on true talent. I've finally come around to thinking that we need to let him go. 

If we ever want a Buxton/Kepler/Arcia outfield with a fourth who forces his way onto the roster we need to make room for that. Outfielders are the easiest to find in the FA market as well. Move Sano to the infield.

 

I really hope Dozier can have a good 6 weeks that allow us to get something for him. Polance should be playing. Unless Dozier relents and starts to hit the other way he will have no value. Trying to pull everything just has pitchers pitch you outside. Unless you are an elite hitter, it is a recipe for failure.

 

Nunez is the cat's ass for a utility infielder. His BABIP is high, but not amazingly so for a guy hitting line drives at the rate he's hitting them. He would be tough for me to let go.

 

[DaveW]

The problem with Nunez as a Util INF is that he is quite horrible defensively up the middle (and even at 3rd base) Basically he needs to continue to hit like he has to make it worth having him out there defensively. Polanco is a  much better bet to work out long term IMO, so I think Nunez should be shopped very aggressively.

[wsnydes]

 

Personally I think the trading criteria should be "how can I straighten out our own roster, and our 40 man" not what can I get in return. If you are waiting for return on this years version of the Twins, next years will look much the same.TR is either going to have to acquire some proactive agression from somewhere, or about the best you can hope for is Buxton, a couple middle of the pen moves, and maybe Kepler. That is not going to solve the Twins!

This.  Straightening out the logjams that exist on this team should be the priority.  Guys like Plouffe and Nunez are blocking prospects or forcing them to play out of position.  Maximizing the value of those players is secondary, but important.  My only concern is that TR makes moves that end up creating other logjams in the process like the Park signing.  Even though I think that signing has potential to be a good one, it just created more problems for Moli to put a lineup together.  The pieces of the puzzle need to fit together better than they currently do.

[wsnydes]

 

I have been pretty quiet about trading Plouffe because I saw this team as weak on true talent. I've finally come around to thinking that we need to let him go. 

If we ever want a Buxton/Kepler/Arcia outfield with a fourth who forces his way onto the roster we need to make room for that. Outfielders are the easiest to find in the FA market as well. Move Sano to the infield.

I really like Plouffe and hate to see him go, but I've been advocating a trade since the trade deadline last year.  That was solely to get Sano in the lineup with a set position, as he's clearly in the franchise's future.  I've always hated the move to RF for multiple reasons.  One of them is the logjam it created in the outfield, as you've touched on.