Article: Twins Organizational Depth Chart - The Outfield

[Seth Stohs]

As Jeremy noted earlier, we are about to embark on a ton of draft coverage here at Twins Daily. We will be posting several draft prospect profiles of players who could be available when the Twins make the 15th overall pick. Jeremy will post a couple more mock drafts. I’ll post my updated Top 30 prospects, and also will consider the Twins organizational depth.

 

Why look at the organizational depth right now as the draft approaches? Nearly two months into a new season, trends may start taking place, storylines are developing, players are stepping up, or they’re not. As you know, in the early rounds of the MLB Draft, it is wise to generally take Best Player Available, but as you get to Day 2 and especially Day 3 of the draft, it may make more sense to load up on positions of need.

 

Today, we will begin this series by looking at the outfielders.Minnesota Twins - LF: Robbie Grossman, CF: Danny Santana, RF: Miguel Sano, OF: Oswaldo Arcia, Darin Mastroianni (DL)

 

The Twins have had a lot of talented outfielders come through the big leagues in recent years. Several were traded, others have just begun to arrive. At times last season, Twins fans dreamed on a future outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks. Hicks was traded to the Yankees. Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton are both at AAA. Miguel Sano has struggled defensively at times (and offensively too) in his transition to right field. So, right now, the Twins big league outfield is not at all what the Twins or the fans thought it would be at this point in the season. Instead, Robbie Grossman opted out of his minor league contract with Cleveland last week, signed with the Twins, played one game in Rochester and was called up. He has been on base in all six games he’s played since. Santana and Arcia are both out of options.

 

Rochester Red Wings - LF: Eddie Rosario, CF: Byron Buxton, RF: Max Kepler (DL), OF: Adam Brett Walker

 

Now this is the outfield a lot of Twins fans were dreaming of and hoping for starting in spring training. Rosario’s inability to not swing at pitches outside the strike zone came back to bite him, and even his defense took a step back. He’s hit just .160 in his week in AAA so far. Buxton missed a week recently with back spasms. However, after a slow start, he has torn up the International League in May, cutting down his K-rate while being more aggressive and showing power. Kepler is on the DL right now with a groin strain, but he has been on fire for the last two weeks. Adam Brett Walker launched his 10th home run of the season on Wednesday night. Yes, he’s striking out about 44% of the time, but he is showing great power.

 

Chattanooga Lookouts - LF: Travis Harrison, CF: Zach Granite, RF: Daniel Palka, OF: Joe Maloney, Shannon Wilkerson

 

Palka was the story in April, cutting down his strikeouts and showing strong power. He has struggled in May, but he is a strong prospect acquisition. Harrison gets the opportunity to repeat at the level and that should prove beneficial. Zach Granite leads the organization with 17 stolen bases. Joe Maloney was the top player from independent leagues in 2015. He is among organization leaders in doubles. Wilkerson signed last July with the Twins and was an instigator for the Lookouts championship run. He has missed time with a quad injury a couple of times this season.

 

Ft. Myers Miracle - LF: Austin DIemer, CF: Edgar Corcino, RF: Chad Christensen, OF: Max Murphy, Tanner English (DL)

 

Tanner English has been out over a month with a concussion. He was the Twins minor league defensive outfielder of the year last year and is a leadoff type of hitter. Murphy was promoted to Ft. Myers just about two weeks ago and already has four home runs with the Miracle. Corcino has been terrific with nearly every day playing time in May. Diemer and Christensen are terrific athletes with good speed and the ability to play all over the outfield.

 

Cedar Rapids Kernels - LF: Daniel Kihle, CF: LaMonte Wade, RF: Jorge Fernandez, OF: Brad Hartong

 

LaMonte Wade has been the most consistent hitter in the organization throughout the season. He was our choice for May Minor League Hitter of the Month. He walks more than he strikes out, plays solid defense and has some pop in his bat. Jorge Fernandez has been a catcher in the organization since being drafted in 2012. The athlete was moved to the outfield and has shown good pop in his bat. Daniel Kihle and Brad Hartong were drafted last year and began the season in extended spring but were recently promoted to the Kernels.

 

Extended Spring Training - Rowan Ebersohn, Cristian Cavaness, Tyree Davis, Jaylin Davis, Roberto Gonzalez, Jean Carlos Arias, Luis Martinez, Lean Marrero, Aaron Whitefield.

 

In extended spring training, this group of outfielders has a ton of talent and athleticism. Most are quite young and have to learn more about how to be a baseball player. Ebersohn was a member of the South African team in the WBC Qualifier in Australia. Jaylin Davis and Roberto Gonzalez have a ton of power. Davis was drafted last year but did not play due to injury. Gonzalez has been hurt quite a bit since being drafted in 2014. Tyree Davis is a tremendous athlete with great speed and developing power. Arias and Martinez come from the Dominican Summer League where they showed a ton of speed. Marrero has a fluid left-handed swing but he’s young. Whitefield was an international softball player from Australia before leaning how to play baseball less than two years ago. He too is a great athlete.

 

Top Prospects (Outfielders)

 

1.) Max Kepler, 2.) Adam Brett Walker, 3.) LaMonte Wade, 4.) Daniel Palka, 5.) Travis Harrison.

 

Draft Thoughts

 

The Twins have clearly focused on pitching the last two or three drafts and it has shown in the offensive numbers in the lower levels of the minor leagues. Obviously pitching is important and should always be a focus in the draft, but the Twins certainly can afford to restock bats too.

 

As always, we can’t look at team needs now when it comes to the draft. Even the top picks generally need at least a year and a half to get to the big leagues. There is no way to know what the Twins needs will be, for sure, four to six years from now.

 

So when it comes to outfielders, the Twins should always draft a few. If we’ve learned a few things this year, defense does matter but the Twins also just need to have hitting. Therein lies the rub. In the top five rounds, you’re obviously looking for a mix of athleticism and ability to hit, even with some power.

 

Looking at the big league roster, you can see a log jam of of corner outfielders, first base and DH types, but at the same time, if those types of guys can hit, they can move up the system and provide value. However, the Twins have had a lot of success drafting athletic, center field types. They can move a little more slowly as they translate from athlete to baseball player.

We also have seen the value of having a great outfield defense. Speed and natural outfield senses are important. Personally, I would most likely draft mostly center field types knowing they can transfer to the corners as they move up.

 

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[HitInAPinch]

Thanks Seth. 

 

Question:  Can same-day trades of draft picks be made?  I see a player who was drafted can be traded in the same year, after the World Series is over.  Don't understand that at all.

 

It seems like we have a lot of 'swing for the fences' types right now.  Twins don't need guys like Walker or Palka,  We need a bunch of OBP and OPS (+) guys. 

 

Buxton is healthy again, after being injured, yet again.  His overall AAA stats look really great:  394 OBP, 970 OPS.  I've always been concerned with his lack of walks, but those numbers are tough to dispute.  Replication at the MLB level, is.  Hoping for the best!

 

Rosario:  I was in the group that thought he had learned from last year.  Obviously not.

 

Arcia:  I applaud him for getting in great shape.  I also wag my finger at him and ask: why didn't you do this before?  I pass on Arcia next year.  Santana still has value and is just being played to much right now because of need.

 

 

[bluechipper]

Between the Chattanooga, Fort Myers, and Cedar Rapids outfielders, it looks like only Palka and Wade are top 20 prospect types. I'm not sure how that compares to other organizations, but that seems a little low to me.

[Thrylos]

 

 Twins don't need guys like Walker or Palka,  We need a bunch of OBP and OPS (+) guys. 

 

These 2 do not belong in the same sentence (and Palka is a much better prospect IMHO than Walker who has exactly one tool).

 

Palka has a career .273/.353/.498 (.851 OPS).  Unlike Walker, he is an OBP and OPS guy.

 

Other than Arcia, Palka is the only LHB in the organization with power potential.

 

The Twins might not need Walker (who as a DH, his best position, is behind at least 3-4 players, depending how you are counting,) but they need Palka

[Thrylos]

 

Between the Chattanooga, Fort Myers, and Cedar Rapids outfielders, it looks like only Palka and Wade are top 20 prospect types. I'm not sure how that compares to other organizations, but that seems a little low to me.

 

There is an 18 year old centerfielder by the name of Jean Carlos Arias who has not made it to the States yet, but might be the best of the oufielders in the Twins' minors.

The other thing is that one can make outfielders out of other spots, but it difficult to make Catchers and Shortstops.

 

I would be totally disappointed if the Twins select and OF in the first 3-4 rounds.  Bigger fish to fry

[DocBauer]

I also thought Rosario would actually improve his second season. Hugely disappointed. And while he offers a ton of talent and potential still, I'm not as sold on him as a full time Twin.

 

Buxton and Kepler are both givens, IMO. But if not Rosario for the 3rd spot, then who? Palka? Someone like Granite for even more speed and defense?

[Seth Stohs]

 

There is an 18 year old centerfielder by the name of Jean Carlos Arias who has not made it to the States yet, but might be the best of the oufielders in the Twins' minors.

The other thing is that one can make outfielders out of other spots, but it difficult to make Catchers and Shortstops.

 

I would be totally disappointed if the Twins select and OF in the first 3-4 rounds.  Bigger fish to fry

 

Arias is mentioned in the report. He came to the States right after spring training for Extended Spring Training. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Question:  Can same-day trades of draft picks be made?  I see a player who was drafted can be traded in the same year, after the World Series is over.  Don't understand that at all.

It used to be 12 months, so a drafted player couldn't be traded until the following June.  They cut that roughly in half with the current rule.

 

Obviously immediately trading a selection is effectively trading picks, and they seem resistant to that, although the "competitive balance lottery" picks can be traded with some limitations.  (Looks like the Twins have such a pick after the second round again, as they did the previous two years.)

[HitInAPinch]

 

It used to be 12 months, so a drafted player couldn't be traded until the following June.  They cut that roughly in half with the current rule.

 

Obviously immediately trading a selection is effectively trading picks, and they seem resistant to that, although the "competitive balance lottery" picks can be traded with some limitations.  (Looks like the Twins have such a pick after the second round again, as they did the previous two years.)

Thanks for the info.

 

BTW:  isn't the Competitive Balance Lottery also known as the Sad Sack Lottery??   

[GMinTraining]

 

These 2 do not belong in the same sentence (and Palka is a much better prospect IMHO than Walker who has exactly one tool).

 

Palka has a career .273/.353/.498 (.851 OPS).  Unlike Walker, he is an OBP and OPS guy.

 

Other than Arcia, Palka is the only LHB in the organization with power potential.

 

The Twins might not need Walker (who as a DH, his best position, is behind at least 3-4 players, depending how you are counting,) but they need Palka

Fair opinion but....... We also need to look at ball park differentials which is why I like w/OBA and w/RC+.  One played High A in Cali League and other in Florida State League.  Here is my opinion.  I'll let viewers discuss whether it's fair point of view or not?  I'd rather look at the only levels in which they played together:

 

2015 AFL. 
Palka  =     .774 OPS and wOBA of .347 and a 108 wRC+  and a 167 ISO
Walker  =  .819 OPS  and wOBA of .363 and a 119 wRC+ and a 253 ISO 
They are 10 days apart in age BTW with Walker the elder.

 

Midwest League (Low A) 

Walker at 21 years old (2013) and Palka at 22 years of age (2014).
Palka  =     .798 OPS and wOBA of .359 and a 125  wRC+  and a 218  ISO
Walker  =  .845 OPS  and wOBA of .373 and a 130  wRC+ and a 248  ISO 

 

Even this year in AAA where Walker is struggling with his BA and K's - He owns a [.809 OPS with a wOBA of .360 and a 130 wRC+ and an ISO of .265]  This coming with him having a slow start to the season.  Maybe he stays slow all year.  I don't know.  But I know this - These numbers are pretty much who he is  EVERY YEAR.  Let it be known, I really really like Palka as a prospect too.  He would be a great left handed bat in the near future.  

 

 

Edited May 27, 2016 by GMinTraining

[Mr. Brooks]

It's fun to watch Walker's milb power, but I have to agree with Thrylos (and many other TD'ers).

Guys with Walker's profile don't usually make it in the mlb.

 

That said, there is zero to lose by giving him a shot.

Edited May 27, 2016 by Mr. Brooks

[GMinTraining]

 

It's fun to watch Walker's milb power, but I have to agree with Thrylos (and many other TD'ers).
Guys with Walker's profile don't usually make it in the mlb.

That said, there is zero to lose by giving him a shot.

For me it's about how you define his profile.  K's and HRs?  Then ok, I agree. 

 

If you define it by the numerous times an individual has lead his leagues in HRs, RBIs, Total Bases, and Extra Bases. (3 consecutive years).    Then I say, you have no comparable profiles.    None.    I tend to look at the anomaly side of things. 

 

  I agree with you though,  nothing to lose by giving him a shot.    1 week Terry.    1 week.    His defense and throws have improved as well (according to his manager - Quade).

[DocBauer]

Walker will get a shot at some point, no doubt. There is something very real about his bat and potential production. Heven obviously has huge contact issues, but he has also flat out produced big power and RBI numbers at every level he's been at.

 

I honestly don't know of any other player, past or present, that I can fairly compare him to. But I absolutely would be in no hurry for his promotional shot. If top prospects like Buxton and Kepler need AAA team, Walker flat out needs more. A September call up? Maybe. But I'd be thinking more about 2017 at some point. The lack of contact issue is concerning in the minors...despite all his production...but would be further concerning at the ML level.

 

If Buxton and Kepler could be considered future "givens", I'm still wondering who the 3rd OF is.

[Rosterman]

If we have an outfield of Kepler Buxton and Arcia, we have Rosario (and Santana) as extras. We have to move Walker into the mix sometime...with Kepler going to first or Park to first and Walker to DH. The nice thing is Walker can age for at least another season at Rochester. If the Twins can keep a Buxton/Kepler/Arcia mix going for a few years, then the Twins are more than set with adequate backup outfielders, some that may shine (Granite) and push Kepler, let's say, to first. Michael will be a solid 4th outfielder. Palka, too. So the Twins will have some trade possibilities depending on how Rosario, Santana and Arcia play out over this and next season.

 

You also hope that you might restock the system with some Top 40 or 50 prospects by trading off some of the vets (and salary) this summer. Guys who won't show up until 2020 at the earliest, and might just develop enough to give a push towards whomever you do have in the upcoming outfield.

 

The Big Thing for the Twins is to stop creating outfielders from guys at other positions. Rosario moved from 2nd to the outfield. They moved Sano from 3rd. Santana was a shortstop. Stop!

[alarp33]

Half the posters on this site want to write off Byron Buxton, a phenomenal defensive Cf and top prospect in all of baseball, based on a terrible 125 age 21 and 50 age 22 at bats in the majors.

 

Yet it seems like 3/4 of the same posters can't wait for ABW, who's K rate in AA/AAA is almost double Buxton's, doesn't have a position, and will be 25 when season ends.

[GMinTraining]

 

Half the posters on this site want to write off Byron Buxton, a phenomenal defensive Cf and top prospect in all of baseball, based on a terrible 125 age 21 and 50 age 22 at bats in the majors.

Yet it seems like 3/4 of the same posters can't wait for ABW, who's K rate in AA/AAA is almost double Buxton's, doesn't have a position, and will be 25 when season ends.

I'm a Walker fanatic and I don't even try to compare Buxton with Walker.  Buxton is a phenomenal prospect and will be a star MLB player sooner than later.  Each brings a different level of excitement.  Both are extra base hit machines.  As are Rosario and Kepler when hitting their groove.  Walker will only be 24 when the season ends BTW.  

[stringer bell]

 

 

The Big Thing for the Twins is to stop creating outfielders from guys at other positions. Rosario moved from 2nd to the outfield. They moved Sano from 3rd. Santana was a shortstop. Stop!

Not quite fair to include Rosario and Santana in this discussion. Santana has played center out of need at the big league level and Rosario was an outfielder who the Twins experimented with as a second baseman. The young talents present make the Sano experiment tougher to understand.

[DJSim22]

ABW being your #2 prospect says it all.  Depressing.