Article: Three-Bagger: Rocky Rotation, Replacements & Raw Power

[Nick Nelson]

Is more change coming for the Twins rotation? Who might be lined up to step in next? And what should we make of a prospect's prodigious power display in Rochester?

 

All are covered in today's Three-Bagger.* Five days after coming out of a strong outing against the Tigers with just 75 pitches thrown, Phil Hughes took the hill against the Blue Jays on Sunday and once again managed to navigate his way through a quality start, despite opponents hitting non-stop rockets.

 

The righty deserves plenty of credit for gutting it out but his pitches are woefully ineffective right now, as illustrated by the amount of contact being made and the loudness of that contact. In his last two starts Hughes has struck out only one of the 48 batters he has faced. That simply isn't going to be a workable formula for him.

 

Hughes doesn't rank atop the list of Paul Molitor's concerns in the rotation, though. Ricky Nolasco was shelled by the Royals on Monday, failing to make it through three innings while giving up six runs. The meltdown was made more irksome by Nolasco's apathetic postgame remarks:

 

 

The injury issues that consistently marred Nolasco's first two seasons in Minnesota were essentially the only justification for his getting another shot this year despite wholly inadequate results. Now he's healthy by his own admission and once again getting raked, with an 8.14 ERA and 990 opponents' OPS in the month of May.

 

For a player who was already nearing the end of his rope with this organization, a parting of ways can't be far off as the team endures another dreadful stretch of performances.

 

Even with Kyle Gibson due to return soon, the Twins may find themselves turning to the minors for reinforcements in the rotation.

 

* Who might be at the head of the line to step in should another spot open up? It's probably not Jose Berrios. In his first start back at Rochester following last week's demotion, Berrios issued five walks and required 104 pitches to get through five innings, a continuation of the inefficiency and command problems that got him sent down.

 

The more likely candidate for a promotion is Tommy Milone, who has been on the opposite end of the control spectrum since heading to Triple-A. In three starts with the Red Wings, Milone has issued zero walks over 20 innings while striking out 17 and putting up a 2.18 ERA. Just like he did last summer when the Twins demoted him, the lefty has responded well and is doing everything necessary to earn a trip back.

 

Milone may have a limited ceiling, but right now he looks like a preferable option to at least three members of the Twins rotation. The southpaw would need to be re-added to the 40-man in order to return, but placing Glen Perkins on the 60-day DL is a formality at this point.

 

* Not since 1990 has a player on the Rochester Red Wings hit three home runs in a game. At least, that was the case until Saturday, when slugging prospect Adam Walker accomplished the feat by going deep in each of his first three at-bats against Durham.

 

Walker is now tied for the International League lead with nine home runs on the season, but that's nothing new. He has led his league in homers every year since he joined the professional ranks. His power is the stuff of legend.

 

Given that Walker, who ranked 11th on our list of top Twins prospects this spring, is now at Triple-A and already on the 40-man roster, one could surmise that a big-league debut may be looming this summer. Indeed, it would behoove Minnesota to get a look at the 24-year-old, and his promotion would stir some warranted excitement among fans who dig the long ball. Walker is capable of hitting them longer than almost anybody in the game, and that's no overstatement.

 

Unfortunately, while his immense pop has translated to the highest level of the minors, so too has his greatest weakness – one that makes it excruciatingly difficult to see him developing into a successful MLB hitter. He has struck out in 65 of his 148 plate appearances for Rochester (44 percent).

 

To put that in perspective, no qualified hitter in the majors has ever posted a K-rate above 37 percent. Chris Carter, who set that record in 2013 with the Astros, struck out in only 24 percent of his plate appearances at Triple-A.

 

Can a player like Walker stay afloat offensively in the big leagues while whiffing in half of his plate appearances if he is obliterating the ball when he manages to make contact?

 

Not likely. But I'm curious to see. Why not?

 

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[Mr. Brooks]

Is Milone in, Nolasco out any tangibly different?

Neither is going to be a part of the next contending team, and a couple more or less wins this season mean nothing.

 

Any move that doesn't involve a legit potential future piece is just one step closer to complete apathy.

Getting harder every day to care.

[USAFChief]

It would be, uh, high comedy to waive the guy, have him clear waivers, put him back on the 40 and 25 man, and back in the big league rotation within a month.

 

For any other team, I mean.

[Rosterman]

Yeah, Milone barks questions. Yet we need, more than ever, a long-man or two who can pick up the slack from failed starts (isn't that what Taylor Rogers should be doing, J.R. Graham should've done, Trevor May should be striving for).

 

Both Berrios and Meyer have a taste of the big leagues. If they want the daily pay, nice room and meal money, they know what is expected from them and they should be working hard at it every minute they are at AAA. And they should be given a chance to come up here and bomb as bad as the current rotation of starters.

 

Yet the Twins need outings from their big four of Santana, Gibson, Hughes and Nolasco to see if they could get anything for them. Santana is now on the poison list. Too abd no one came calling a start or two ago.

 

I'm waiting to see who disappears when Gibson comes up. Duffey and Dean have both earned at least one more start. Berrios should've had one more start and deserves a recall.

 

Nolasco DOES NOT deserve anymore starts. Sadly. It will be tough to eat the contract, 

[Eephus]

I'm all for trying some vigorous expirementation at this point, but I'd rather see them go in a back to the basics approach (Kepler, Buxton, Polanco -- stress defense, fewer Ks)  than a slow-pitch softball (Walker, Palka, more Arcia) approach. Unfortunately, the Twins seem to be lacking baseball IQ in the younster ranks. Some comparisons to the early/mid 80s Twins (Reusse article) are interesting to me. Puckett, Hrbek, Gaetti plus some veterans turned out well. We don't know, but is it reasonable to think that among our 25 man/40 man/upcomers there is a winning team in our near not too distant future? I hope so, but not convinced.
 

What would help convince me is a nucleus of some talented, but also sensisble ballplayers in the near future. And for shi*t's sake, we need some young pitchers to get make the transition from 95+ fastballs to major league credibility pretty doggone soon! 

 

Closing rant:

1. The propensity to swing at out of the strike zone curves and sliders is wearing me out.

2. Used to be in the olden days that once or twice a year an experienced minor league pitcher moved up into the big leagues and held his own. 

[Eephus]

Thanks for the artilcle, Nick!

[mumoo13]

I think we need Walker to drastically lower his strikeout rate in AAA before we call him up. Seeing how much Buxton, Rosario, and Sano have struggled with strikeouts, Walker could be a disaster.

 

[terrydactyls]

Milone is probably the best trade chip available. Bring him back now and hope he responds like last year. Then trade him for whatever you can get back. According to the talking heads on the MLB network on Serius radio, several contending teams are looking for back of the rotation starters who provide at least a 50/50 chance of a win. No other Twins starter fits that criteria.

[Platoon]

It would be, uh, high comedy to waive the guy, have him clear waivers, put him back on the 40 and 25 man, and back in the big league rotation within a month.

 

For any other team, I mean.

Are you saying I can get my Tommy Milone jersey out of storage.,

[Otto von Ballpark]

Milone is probably the best trade chip available.

Considering no one claimed him for free on waivers a few weeks ago, I don't think he has any real trade value for the foreseeable future.

[old nurse]

Other than pitching to AAA batters, if Milone is not doing anything different than he did in the majors the results will be the same as before.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Is Milone in, Nolasco out any tangibly different?
Neither is going to be a part of the next contending team, and a couple more or less wins this season mean nothing.

Any move that doesn't involve a legit potential future piece is just one step closer to complete apathy.
Getting harder every day to care.

Heres' my take:  has Milone ever had a series of bad starts, claiming he's really OK, then suddenly declares he's injured after another bad start?  That's been Nolasco's M.O. for a couple years now.

At least Milone is cheaper and doesn't whine.  

 

Yeah, that's the best I got.....   

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Other than pitching to AAA batters, if Milone is not doing anything different than he did in the majors the results will be the same as before.

Lifetime .586 win percentage.  And the current starters are what, again?

Change is the best idea right now.  I wouldn't expect youth to be much more than young.

[Thrylos]

Why not?

 

Walker is a DH.  Arcia and even Sano are better outfielders than he is; Sano, Park (and Vargas, check what he is doing compared to Walker lately) are better DHs than he is at this point.   Great trade bait.

 

Milone is Milone.  Been there, done that.  And Milone is part of the problem.  Better get someone to start with might be part of the future (Like Andrew Albers)

[wsnydes]

 

Lifetime .586 win percentage.  And the current starters are what, again?

Change is the best idea right now.  I wouldn't expect youth to be much more than young.

Even if they get an extra win or two out of Milone, what exactly does that get you?  At least with youth, you're giving them MLB experience.  Giving innings to Milone is a waste of time.  Putting him back on the 40 man roster to get him those innings is misguided even if he is the best option to make changes in the rotation.  He's not going to be a part of the future, the youth is.  

 

This team needs to realize what they are.  

[DaveW]

At this stage they really should just consider cutting Nolasco outright, I know that they owe him a decent chunk of money, but he has been terrible this year and his attitude sucks to boot. He is never going to regain anything close to "trade value" so just dump him now, please.

 

Might as well give Milone another shot, if he can reel off some quality starts over the next 8 weeks than perhaps we can get a C+ prospect out something at the deadline for him. Bonus if said prospect is a catcher with a smidge of upside.

 

Adam Brett Walker is what he is, a power hitter that is going to strike out way too much, might as well give him a shot at the bigs and see if he can get that k% down to the 35% range or so.

 

Good article overall Nick.

[Vanimal46]

If Walker indeed gets the call-up, I'm setting the over/under k% at 53.5% Any takers?

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

If Walker indeed gets the call-up, I'm setting the over/under k% at 53.5% Any takers?

I'll take the over, considering he's going to get one start then head back down old Rochester way. 

[Dantes929]

Best career ERA of any starter but Duffey.    2nd best ERA on the team last year.    SSS this year with ERA inflated due to Molitor not pulling him soon enough one game and reliever giving up all three runs in a bases loaded two out situation in another..     Milone should not have been sent down in the first place.     Nolasco on the other hand was ok in a very SSS and was kept instead.    I also would have preferred Milone to Hughes.     When Berrios or Meyer are performing well enough to push for promotion then Milone can be the guy that gets dumped.   I prefer to see a guy with limited stuff and great command to someone with limited stuff and very poor command.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd cut Nolasco, and call up Milone. I am not in the clubhouse, but does anyone think Nolasco is helping with the culture? He isn't helping on the field........

 

If Berrios or Meyer could pitch, I'd want them up instead, but that appears a ways off.......and all of the other great prospects are in A ball still......

[tobi0040]

Given that our pen is terrible, I would probably just move Nolasco to the pen and see what happens. We don't have 12 pitchers deserving of a spot right now.

 

If his fastball gains a few ticks to 92-93 and he has a good curve, it seems like he would be one of the better 6-7 relievers we could field.

 

He should not block Chargois at all

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

SSS this year with ERA inflated due to Molitor not pulling him soon enough one game and reliever giving up all three runs in a bases loaded two out situation in another.. 

This is extreme cherry-picking.  Yes, Milone had 3 inherited runners score in one game, but relievers also stranded 4 of his inherited runners in other starts.

 

Also, in the game where the 3 inherited runners scored, Milone actually had a runner at first with two outs, before he walked consecutive batters to reach 102 pitches and bring up the heart of the Brewers order, of which Braun was already 2-for-2 vs Milone that day, and Lucroy had a fly ball caught at the fence in dead center, and another caught at the opposite field warning track in right.  If you're past 100 pitches and not out of the 5th inning yet, it's hard to muster much sympathy for you.

 

And what game this year did Milone not get pulled soon enough?  Was it April 15th vs the Angels?  He was at 68 pitches through 6 innings, his only remotely efficient start of the year.  Letting him face 3 batters in the 7th inning was hardly keeping him in too long -- it wasn't Molitor's fault that Milone gave up a HR, a walk, and another HR to those 3 batters.  Every other start of the year, Milone failed to complete 5 innings due to his own poor and inefficient performance.

Edited May 25, 2016 by spycake

[HitInAPinch]

 

Even if they get an extra win or two out of Milone, what exactly does that get you?  At least with youth, you're giving them MLB experience.  Giving innings to Milone is a waste of time.  Putting him back on the 40 man roster to get him those innings is misguided even if he is the best option to make changes in the rotation.  He's not going to be a part of the future, the youth is.  

 

This team needs to realize what they are.  

I'm not a defender of anything the Twins do.  What I do know, the wave of complaints against the Twins will not be satiated by bringing up a bunch of MiLB'ers and watching them fail.  You've got to provide some glimmer of hope.  What I have seen of the MiLB'er so far, they need more time.  Rotate out the veterans who have been failing so far and move in some MiLB players

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

If Walker indeed gets the call-up, I'm setting the over/under k% at 53.5% Any takers?

Walker = Dave Kingman.  Wish it were Walker = Jim Thome

[tobi0040]

In our move this guy up and cut that guy discussions, we should first acknowledge that we have about 5-7 players that have no business on an MLB roster. And another 10 or so that have no business on a decent team. And our AAA team is about .500 last I checked. The best players there have struggled because their time above AA is minimal.

 

Rock. Meet hard place.

[gocgo]

It's interesting to read others talk about trading chips that the Twins have.  We all have an inflated sense of value when it comes to our favorite team, but here's a reality check.

 

As someone pointed out, Tommy Milone passed thru waivers a few weeks ago.  If teams don't want him for free, why would they give up anything for him?  Trade value = zero.  Trevor Plouffe was available for trade this offseason, but we didn't get any credible offers.  Already spending 15 days on the DL and having decent but not eyepopping numbers, what has he done to increase his trade value?  Not much.  Trade value = very little.  Brian Dozier?  Not many teams in the market for a sub .200 pull hitter.  Joe Mauer...uhm yeah...don't need to go there.  Even without the contract, the market for first basemen who don't hit for power doesn't exist.

 

I could keep going, but what all this adds up to is a GM painted into a corner.  If you cut those players lose, it is admitting failure...not going to happen.  If he continues to keep those players on the payroll, it blocks the future.  I just don't see a way out of this one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I've got nothing against Milone, but if both he and Sean Burnett get added to the roster, then someone has to get cut from the 40-man in addition to Perkins going on the 60-day DL.  I imagine Nolasco would go to the pen before getting released.  Might imbalance the 25-man to drop Mastro right now.

 

And two guys would have to get dropped from the 25-man too to make room for Milone and Burnett -- if not Mastro, probably two from Gibson, Duffey, Dean, May, Pressly, and Rogers, since they are the only pitchers with options remaining.  Those guys probably need the reps in a lost season more than Milone, who could be due ~$6 mil next year in arbitration again.

Edited May 25, 2016 by spycake

[wsnydes]

 

I'm not a defender of anything the Twins do.  What I do know, the wave of complaints against the Twins will not be satiated by bringing up a bunch of MiLB'ers and watching them fail.  You've got to provide some glimmer of hope.  What I have seen of the MiLB'er so far, they need more time.  Rotate out the veterans who have been failing so far and move in some MiLB players

I don't disagree with anything you said here.  I'm not suggesting that you bring up the same guys that have struggled unless they've earned another shot already.  I'm merely stating that we know what we have in Milone.  He provides no hope in my mind.  He's not going to be a part of the future and is more of the same with what this team already has in the rotation.  They should be taking this time to see what they do have in the system.  Play the Polanco's and Kepler's when they're up here.  Give Meyer a real opportunity.  I would have liked to see at least one more start from Berrios.  Potentially exposing someone on the 40 man to waivers for the sake of adding Milone back makes no sense to me.

 

Wins this year mean absolutely nothing.  Work towards the future and play the youth.  That is what provides hope to me.  

[Comrade Bork]

Despite striking out in a whopping 44% of his plate appearances, Walker has a better OBP thaaaaan

 

Park

Escobar

Plouffe

Dozier

Suzuki

Santana

Centeno

(Rosario)

(Button)

[Nick Nelson]

 

Other than pitching to AAA batters, if Milone is not doing anything different than he did in the majors the results will be the same as before.

By "same as before" you mean over the course of a career in which he's been an average MLB pitcher? I'll take that.

 

It also bears noting that last year Milone pitched very, very well after returning from his successful stint in Triple-A so whether it was adjustments or confidence or whatever, he seemed to gain something.

 

 

Even if they get an extra win or two out of Milone, what exactly does that get you?  At least with youth, you're giving them MLB experience. 

Right now the Twins need starters that can give them innings and salvage the beleaguered bullpen. Even with this terrible W/L record that is still a significant priority. Going with someone like Berrios over Milone is simply not an option right now for that reason.