Article: Offense Being Led Down Path Of Historic Ineptitude

[brvama]

I feel like the pessimism is really getting infectious down there. This team is bad, but I refuse to believe (and I genuinely don't believe) it is this bad skill wise. I'm not blaming anyone in particular, but I really get the sense that the mood/atmosphere is dragging everyone down. Really upsetting and really concerning. When Sano comes to the plate, I don't see that twinkle in his eye anymore or the joy of taking on the pitcher. Just frustration and going through the motions. I realize posts like this aren't helping any either, but I think the Twins need to acknowledge that the atmosphere is borderline toxic right now. Something drastic needs to change, but I don't know what.

 

I think you hit on something here and possibly deserving of a separate thread! Maybe it'll take something as simple as bringing in Hunter as a coach to be the "toxic buster" in the clubhouse. These guys have to shake it off and mentally start anew. They are better than there performance and someone needs to take the lead. Who will it be? Or is there really anyone there that can do it?

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Changes I would make.

 

Santana leading off - he is the only one who has multiple weapons to spark the offense.  Yes, he could take more walks - but we don't have anyone who takes walks, besides Joe.

 

Joe at number 2.  While he is not hitting, he can draw walks.  I also think he needs to start changing his role to understand that he needs to be able get runners over, hit and run, etc.  He is the only player who is capable of executing small ball.

 

Nunez at 3.  Only consistent hitter right now.   He is our lone All Star at this point.

 

Sano at 4. He needs to own this slot in the order and learn to be the run producer that he is.

 

Grossman at 5.  - He looks to be the only other major league battle tested hitter, besides Joe, in this lineup.  He needs a chance to drive in runs.   

 

Park at 6.  Still needs to keep learning.  Dropping him down takes pressure off.

 

Plouffe at 7.  He is not able to deliver consistent at bats.  He needs to earn his way to the top of the order.

 

Suzuki at 8.  He is what he is.  

 

Dozier/Polanco at 9.   I actually think Polanco needs to be the starter.  He can turn over the lineup and use his speed to make things happen.  Until Dozier comes to terms with the fact that he is not the second coming of Jeff Kent, he needs to be on the bench or hitting here. 

 

 

 

 

[tobi0040]

It is hard for me to put effort into individual changes I would make anymore.

 

If you keep Terry, what makes anyone think he will start making the right decisions?

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't understand how the players is even an option.

These players didn't assemble, coach, and evaluate themselves.

Blaming the players is like blaming the McDonalds drive through guy because you don't like the taste of their burgers.

[Thrylos]

 

You can vote for who to blame on Twitter:

 

 

Unfortunately, there are only singular choices.  Need an "all of the above" (as in Total System Failure...)

[Nick Nelson]

 

If this is a "historically" bad offense, what does that make the pitching/defense?

 

I just ran the numbers of runs allowed per game for the Twins vs. the league since 1961 (MLB 1961-1972, AL 1973-present), and our 2016 runs allowed per game is the worst, 23.1% worse than the league.  1995 was next, 22.0% worse than the league, both of which were considerably worse than our next worst mark (2012 at 16.7%).

 

For offense, runs scored, we're at 21.1% below league average for 2016.  Our worst mark ever was 1999 at 21.5% below.  1981 wasn't far behind at 19.6%, and then comes the drop-off down to 2011 (16.7%) and 2000 (14.7%).

 

So while both are bad, runs allowed seems to be worse historically.

I tend to be a little more accepting of the poor runs allowed results because there have been several significant injuries on the pitching staff, and guys are playing out of position defensively. 

 

The lineup has been mostly healthy (aside from relatively minor injuries requiring DL stints for Plouffe and Escobar). People simply aren't performing. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Unfortunately, there are only singular choices.  Need an "all of the above" (as in Total System Failure...)

 

That's always the case, so I don't put it. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

 Molitor needs to go.  He's the wrong guy to lighten up the mood and the srong guy to coach the young team that should be coming. I would lose Dozier or Plouffe (both would be better) and get what you can.

 

I'm not ready to go there yet, and feel bad for Molitor.  I don't think you can place much of the blame on him for this, at least not given how young the season is.  That being said, I do sort of agree that they need someone to lighten up the mood, and Paul Molitor isn't that person.

Edited May 23, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[tobi0040]

I'm not ready to go there yet, and feel bad for Molitor. I don't think you can place much of the blame on him for this, at least not given how young the season is. That being said, I do sort of agree that they need someone to lighten up the mood, and Paul Molitor isn't that person.

And I think we have also concluded that he isn't a real good candidate to break in young players....... So......

[Platoon]

I'm not ready to go there yet, and feel bad for Molitor.  I don't think you can place much of the blame on him for this, at least not given how young the season is.  That being said, I do sort of agree that they need someone to lighten up the mood, and Paul Molitor isn't that person.

Ha has made some pretty odd moves, and bears some of the fault, but he wasn't given a roster that can readily be adjusted either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I tend to be a little more accepting of the poor runs allowed results because there have been several significant injuries on the pitching staff, and guys are playing out of position defensively. 

 

The lineup has been mostly healthy (aside from relatively minor injuries requiring DL stints for Plouffe and Escobar). People simply aren't performing. 

If you want to strip out other factors, perhaps using something other than runs would be better -- luck and sequencing can be especially big factors in a small sample like 2016 so far.

 

Here are the Twins wRC+ figures by year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1961&ind=1&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a

 

81 wRC+ this year.  Bad, but the team had worse marks in 1999 and 1981.  Very hard to make a case that the 2016 offense is worse than the 1999 one, relative to league.  1981 is probably pretty much equal or worse too.

 

Pitching-wise, Santana missed 2 starts, and Gibson maybe 4 so far.  Replaced by Duffey, Dean, Berrios, and Meyer, they are probably not far off Gibson's 6.10 ERA performance anyway.  Perkins has been the only injury in the pen, and again his absence might be a positive considering how he began the season.

 

The effect of the defense is harder to quantify, but Sano appears to be the most "out of position" player, and it wasn't an emergency decision to put him out there, so they've had ample opportunities to mitigate it (spotting him at 3B or DH, defensive replacements, positioning, etc.).

 

Fangraphs currently pegs us at 21st in fielding runs for the season, not far off last year's 18th rank when our ERA and FIP were a near match.  In absolute terms, we're negative but still ahead of our 2013-2014 fielding runs numbers.

[troyhobbs]

Here are the two most recent headlines regarding the Twins on MLB trade rumors. "Twins “100 Percent Committed” To Terry Ryan" & "Terry Ryan Offers Support For Paul Molitor." Cute.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ha has made some pretty odd moves, and bears some of the fault, but he wasn't given a roster that can readily be adjusted either.

 

Polanco could play most days, by moving him around the INF...he doesn't. Sano could play 3B, with others in the LF/RF, but he doesn't do that either.

 

He could platoon Arcia/Sano/Park, but he doesn't do that either.

 

He pretty much pencils in the veterans (and Danny Santana, who he loves as a player) in the same positions every day.

 

So, it isn't the easiest roster to play with, but he doesn't even do what little he could.

[tobi0040]

Here are the two most recent headlines regarding the Twins on MLB trade rumors. "Twins “100 Percent Committed” To Terry Ryan" & "Terry Ryan Offers Support For Paul Molitor." Cute.

Don't forget the doozy today by Charlie Walters "Terry Ryan losing sleep over Twins record".

 

Of course not a critical word by Charlie. We are so lucky to have the hard hitting Walters and Hartman.

[troyhobbs]

Monday’s are as good a day as any for a rant so while I’m in the mood - Joe Mauer. Overpaid, that’s not his fault.  But you’d think the guy would feel some sort of accountability to at least pretend he’s a leader. He’s rarely seen (on camera anyway) coaching, encouraging, or even socializing with the young talent, always smiling and joking around with the opponents however at 1B regardless of how many runs they’re down by, generally seen at the back hi-five lines the rare times that they do pull out W’s, and appears to be incapable of all human emotions whether it be joy, frustration, pomp, or anger. I’m a long time Mauer fan but he seems to be a terrible leader.

[Mr. Brooks]

Monday’s are as good a day as any for a rant so while I’m in the mood - Joe Mauer. Overpaid, that’s not his fault. But you’d think the guy would feel some sort of accountability to at least pretend he’s a leader. He’s rarely seen (on camera anyway) coaching, encouraging, or even socializing with the young talent, always smiling and joking around with the opponents however at 1B regardless of how many runs they’re down by, generally seen at the back hi-five lines the rare times that they do pull out W’s, and appears to be incapable of all human emotions whether it be joy, frustration, pomp, or anger. I’m a long time Mauer fan but he seems to be a terrible leader.

Meh, you can't be someone you aren't.

Some guys are natural leaders, some guys are not.

It's not something you can learn.

I have worked for people who were not natural leaders and it was laughably transparent when they tried to be.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Changes I would make.

 

Santana leading off - he is the only one who has multiple weapons to spark the offense.  Yes, he could take more walks - but we don't have anyone who takes walks, besides Joe.

 

Joe at number 2.  While he is not hitting, he can draw walks.  I also think he needs to start changing his role to understand that he needs to be able get runners over, hit and run, etc.  He is the only player who is capable of executing small ball.

 

Nunez at 3.  Only consistent hitter right now.   He is our lone All Star at this point.

 

Sano at 4. He needs to own this slot in the order and learn to be the run producer that he is.

 

Grossman at 5.  - He looks to be the only other major league battle tested hitter, besides Joe, in this lineup.  He needs a chance to drive in runs.   

 

Park at 6.  Still needs to keep learning.  Dropping him down takes pressure off.

 

Plouffe at 7.  He is not able to deliver consistent at bats.  He needs to earn his way to the top of the order.

 

Suzuki at 8.  He is what he is.  

 

Dozier/Polanco at 9.   I actually think Polanco needs to be the starter.  He can turn over the lineup and use his speed to make things happen.  Until Dozier comes to terms with the fact that he is not the second coming of Jeff Kent, he needs to be on the bench or hitting here. 

 

I like most of this except for Santana, and his .279 OBP (.254 in May), leading off. I'd try Polanco there. Dozier isn't doing anything for us at this point.

[troyhobbs]

 

Meh, you can't be someone you aren't.
Some guys are natural leaders, some guys are not.
It's not something you can learn.
I have worked for people who were not natural leaders and it was laughably transparent when they tried to be.

You're right but if I were paying them $23 million I would certainly appreciate the effort.

[Mr. Brooks]

You're right but if I were paying them $23 million I would certainly appreciate the effort.

Effort at what?

Trying to pretend being someone you aren't isn't going to have the effect you are seeking.

It only takes watching one interview with Joe to see he's not a leader.

Again, that's not something you can learn, at least not as an adult.

[troyhobbs]

 

Effort at what?
Trying to pretend being someone you aren't isn't going to have the effect you are seeking.
It only takes watching one interview with Joe to see he's not a leader.
Again, that's not something you can learn, at least not as an adult.

Some aspects of leadership can be practiced and learned (though I agree a lot of it is natural) but the point is more that it's another thing working against the club, that the face of the franchise is not a strong leader like other clubs might have the benefit of. Not that it's the biggest thing but just another thing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Last year, May was the month where players across the roster blossomed and helped propel the team to 20 wins. This May, here's what the Twins have gotten from three players vying to fulfill the leadership void created by Hunter's absence:
 

Dozier: .210/.297/.281, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Mauer: .181/.260/.242, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Plouffe: .206/.227/.286, 1 HR, 5 RBI

When it comes to diagnosing this offense's problems, there are more places to point than fingers to point with. But the above numbers illustrate that the lineup is rotten at its core. And while the immense struggles of younger players are somewhat understandable, it's not as easy to forgive players who have been around as long as this trio.

 

FWIW, Mauer was awful while we were winning in May 2015 too, 63 wRC+.  His overall line this year (101 wRC+) is pretty much identical to his 2014-2015 production (99 wRC+), so whoever expected him to produce like a core player in 2016 is probably more to blame than Mauer himself.

 

Likewise, Dozier is at 66 wRC+ so far for 2016, which isn't far from his 73 wRC+ mark from the second half of last year.  Again, the problem might be the expectations than the player himself.

 

Plouffe has played the least of these three, thanks to injury in April, so while his 76 wRC+ appears to be well below his career average of 99, or even his second half mark of 92 from last year, it is mostly a function of the Toronto series so far.  After last Wednesday's game, Plouffe's wRC+ still stood at 110.

Edited May 23, 2016 by spycake

[BHtwins]

There is so much bad, its almost unwatchable.  Almost as bad as the late 90's teams

 

The complete lack of pressure they put on he opposing pitcher is killing them.

 

Dozier is below the Mendoza line.  He is just flailing away at this point,  His DP yesterday just about had be throwing the remote through the TV.

 

Plouffe is his ever streaky self.  I'm not sure he has much different then the last few years. 

 

Mauer is flailing at this point too.  He used to at least look professional.

 

I know this is just cliché and there is no data,  but god it looks like none of them give a crap whether they win or lose.  

[S.]

This FO is a joke. The players clearly aren't listening to anything the coaches are saying. The GM refuses to acknowledge this is largely his fault and is so damn delusional that he thinks this team can still turn it around. The manager is hurting, not helping, our supposed prospects of the future. Our locker room culture appears to be terrible. Players barely seem to give a **** about their awful performance. Everyone in the organization is just shuffling the blame around but no one is doing a thing about it. 

 

I can't imagine any other professional sports team would continue to give a free pass to Terry Ryan and the FO he has assembled. I love baseball and I love the Twins but we're starting to get to the point where if Terry Ryan and the current FO aren't entirely gone in the very near future, it's going to be very difficult to even support this team in the least. I can't support a bunch of confused old men ruining my favorite team and mismanaging every single prospect we have. 

[S.]

 

Watch, the next move will be to send Polanco down when Escobar is ready to come back.

Terry Ryan says:

http://66.media.tumblr.com/3b50910a6c6468c528611b49fd91e03c/tumblr_inline_nykpe7JbeL1t507a3_500.gif

[Platoon]

Speaking of leadership, Dozier was quoted as on the subject. Once he said he was the team leader, and once he referred to himself as one of the team leaders. He likely has a point, as it's obvious the whole team is following his shining example. Snark meter is currently set at full operating capacity!

[laloesch]

 

This FO is a joke. The players clearly aren't listening to anything the coaches are saying. The GM refuses to acknowledge this is largely his fault and is so damn delusional that he thinks this team can still turn it around. The manager is hurting, not helping, our supposed prospects of the future. Our locker room culture appears to be terrible. Players barely seem to give a **** about their awful performance. Everyone in the organization is just shuffling the blame around but no one is doing a thing about it. 

 

I can't imagine any other professional sports team would continue to give a free pass to Terry Ryan and the FO he has assembled. I love baseball and I love the Twins but we're starting to get to the point where if Terry Ryan and the current FO aren't entirely gone in the very near future, it's going to be very difficult to even support this team in the least. I can't support a bunch of confused old men ruining my favorite team and mismanaging every single prospect we have. 

 

 

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.   Dozier, Pouffe, Perkins are trying to act like leaders in the clubhouse (Mauer is not trying and we all know that) and the younger guys are literally laughing at them and mocking them.  

 

Why would you respect those supposed wise veterans when they are producing next to nothing.  And in the case of Perkins, a guy who has acted like a spoiled brat in the past and thrown young callups under the bus in front of the media. (Pinto).

Edited May 23, 2016 by laloesch

[amjgt]

That Dozier AB killed me too. I was at the game, so I didn't have the TV view, but this should be about right.

 

Whatever you think of the decision to bunt here, matters not.

 

First pitch he squared to bunt and pulled back. OK

Second pitch he missed on a bunt attempt. MISSED. Not a foul. Just a whiff. He clearly had no interest in bunting even though he was getting the sign to do so.

Third pitch. No bunt attempt. The manager must have seen the sadness in Dozier's eyes and called off the bunt. Jesus. 

Eventually pulls a grounder right down the line for an easy DP (maybe could have had a triple play)

 

Not only do today's player STINK at bunting. They have absolutely no desire to do so. Take a couple pitches... foul off a bunt or two.... and magically, they get to do what they want, and swing away.

[Darius]

I look at the worst record in the MLB, and get excited about next year's draft. How nice would the #1 overall pick be for this "future" that keeps getting postponed? It's a nice consolation. I'd rather have the #1 pick to go along with all the young talent, than try and salvage 10 extra wins with some AAAA players, at best.

 

Then I remember that TR would be forced to draft based on signability (aka cheap-out), and probably watch a generational player slip, while taking a "high-floor/low-ceiling" college catcher, or something similar.

 

Then, I also remember that if they did draft that player that would be generational in another organization, they wouldn't be able to develop him, and it would go down in Twins history as another bust.

 

Then, I return to wondering how many more weeks until Vikings training camp.

[jimmer]

The offense was pretty bad last year too.  Sequencing made it look better to some than it actually was.

[Darius]

 

Unfortunately, there are only singular choices.  Need an "all of the above" (as in Total System Failure...)

 

There is only one choice.  Blaming the players, manager, etc., means that, ultimately, Terry Ryan isn't doing his job.  He's responsible for putting the team together.  TR is the only choice.

 

If there's an off year here or there, OK, blame a player or a manager.  But, when you've won one playoff series in a quarter decade, and have a record in that time period that doesn't even sniff .500, its clearly an issue at the top.