Article: Offense Being Led Down Path Of Historic Ineptitude

[Nick Nelson]

We're a quarter of the way through the season, and the Minnesota Twins have the worst record in baseball at 11-32. Plenty of factors have contributed to this astoundingly poor start, but nothing sticks out more than an offense that is on track to be one of the worst in franchise history.While questions loomed around the rotation and bullpen heading into the season, Minnesota's lineup looked like a fairly reliable strength. The Twins scored nearly 700 runs last year, and were returning every starter with the exception of Torii Hunter, whom they replaced with a Korean superstar slugger.

 

Even if you were down on the offensive unit, it would have been hard to foresee such a lifeless group of hitters. The Twins are currently on pace to score 573 runs this year.

 

Just how bad is that? The last time that a Twins team scored fewer than 600 runs (outside of the strike-shortened 1994 and 1981 campaigns) was 1972. Except, that season was also shortened by a strike, though only eight games were lost. You have to go back to 1968 to find the last and only Twins team to score fewer than 600 times in a 162-game season.

 

So, if you've felt like the run-scoring this season has been outrageously anemic, you're not wrong. This is shaping up to be the worst Twins offense in decades.

 

Sunday's loss to the Blue Jays featured a meager one-run effort, and the box score was sadly representative. Brian Dozier: 0-for-4. Joe Mauer: 0-for-3. Trevor Plouffe: 0-for-4. These are the three most tenured veterans in the lineup and none of them are answering the bell at a point where the season is spinning completely out of control.

 

Last year, May was the month where players across the roster blossomed and helped propel the team to 20 wins. This May, here's what the Twins have gotten from three players vying to fulfill the leadership void created by Hunter's absence:

 

Dozier: .210/.297/.281, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Mauer: .181/.260/.242, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Plouffe: .206/.227/.286, 1 HR, 5 RBI

When it comes to diagnosing this offense's problems, there are more places to point than fingers to point with. But the above numbers illustrate that the lineup is rotten at its core. And while the immense struggles of younger players are somewhat understandable, it's not as easy to forgive players who have been around as long as this trio.

 

We can talk about Terry Ryan's lack of offseason activity. We can talk about Paul Molitor's managing or tactical prowess. We can talk about an overcommitment to youth. But the bottom line is that when the guys with corner stalls in the locker room are playing this, and setting this kind of example, everything devolves from there.

 

There aren't any easy answers. But if the Twins are interested in sending statements, maybe they should be less focused on throwing at the brash defending MVP and more focused on lighting a fire under their own underperforming veteran mainstays.

 

Unless and until those guys start doing their jobs, this team will continue down its path of historical ineptitude.

 

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[mumoo13]

I can't imagine this is helping the trade market for Plouffe. As long as Polanco is up, he should be getting more playing time at the expense of Dozier and Plouffe until they start to hit decently.

[clutterheart]

I think guys like Dozier and Plouffe were overrated. Plouffe is an average player and Dozier is looking avergae to slightly below average. Average players have value, but counting on them to carry a team is a sign of a poorly constructed team. While Mauer hasnt been good since 2013.

 

Perhaps it was foolish to give corner lockers to guys with the talent of role players.

[TwinsWonWithHunter]

I do not say this in jest: the Twins should give serious credence to designating Mauer and Plouffe for assignment or releasing them outright.

 

All the FO has done during the 2016 debacle is tinker with spare parts. They have yet to send a message (demoting Buxton and Rosario was not a message, btw, as much as it was a plea to them both to please improve their games. It is not like we replaced either one of them in the OF so much as put place holders in their stead). It is time, however, to blow up the team's "core." And neither Plouffe nor Mauer--especially not Mauer--have any trade value. None. So the only way to make them go away is to pay them to leave; if we want to farewell them, tell them not to let the door hit them on the way out.*

 

Put Park at 1B, Sano at 3B, call up Vargas and somebody else. Move on as an organization from the Mauer era, and accelerate the Sano-to-3rd move, which we all know is coming.

 

If the Twins want to lower payroll by 23 million the next two years to account for the lost Mauer money, whatever. We are going to go in full youth/rebuild mode anyway; its not like the Pohlads are going to add payroll to try and fix this mess.

 

 

*Footnote. Mauer, thank you for the batting titles last decade.

[Platoon]

The Twins have so many problems that discussing any one of them results in a "but if the Twins had a (fill in the blank) things would be different comment. And that's true. But each part of the game should stand on its own. I am not sure why anyone thought that this was going to be an explosive offense? I can see die hard fans, but the FO? They had not intention of Buxton leading off, so they still had no leadoff hitter, no true 3 hitter, and Sano was moved to RF, and does not appear to be ecstatic over the idea. Park was, and still is a roll of the dice. Currently he seems in either a large slump, or they have started to figure him out. I think he is an extreme guess hitter at this time. Enough has been said about Dozier, but the sum of it is the BD that existed in the first halves of the last two years is not coming back. And while I am a big Mauer fan, I fear he isn't either. The only one close to consistency is Plouffe. (Jeez Louise) and that explains the offense in a nutshell. If Trevor Plouffe is your cleanup hitter, your lineup is in serious trouble. When you take over beloved veterans and pair them with on the job training rookies, and add a SO prone 29 year old, what exactly did anyone expect. A lineup like Torontos could carry a couple hitters learning their craft, expecting the veterans on this one to, is a fools errand.

[Thrylos]

a. Dozier and Plouffe do not deserve to be in the same sentence as Mauer.  Mauer was an MVP, perennial All Star hitter, someone with a job in every team.  The other two are middle of the road players, who happened to be better that the rest in the Twins' dark season, and ill-advised the Twins' brass instead of trading them and replacing them with Sano and Polanco (who are the future) decided to keep them and build "around them."  Guess what?  They are parts of the problem

 

b. Brunansky's got to go.  Period.  

[mikelink45]

You have added to my woes.  I have been upset by the FO, the manager, the handling of young players, the rotation, the bullpen, the fielding and now you ask us to be upset with the batting!  Yikes.  

 

But you are right.  This team is so clueless that I cannot begin to imagine how they will correct the ship for next year, it is sinking this year.  It is time to tinker with the rotation, lineup, and fielding situations for the rest of this lost year.  Tell Paul the season is lost!  So play Polanco, rotate minor leaguers in and out of the lineup, get Sano out of right field. 

 

Your DFA idea has merit, it also has no chance.  But Mauer on the bench is okay.  This team has to give us something to show that we might actually improve in the next year.  The only good news from the last few weeks was Dean's surprise performance in the rotation. 

[TheLeviathan]

You counted on three guys better served to hit 6-7-8 to be your 2-3-5.

 

I'd say that's part of the problem.

[Riverbrian]

I believe the technical term is:

 

 

 

Painted into a corner. 

 

 

 

 

 

The front office really has no place to go but young and they are trying so hard not to. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1968 should be discarded as an aberration. MLB posted the second-lowest runs per game in 1968 at just 3.42. The only year with fewer runs per game is 1908 at 3.38.

 

So the 2016 Twins are, in actuality, much worse than their 1968 counterparts.

 

Which makes them the worst offensive Twins team in history, probably by a healthy margin.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Just how bad is that? The last time that a Twins team scored fewer than 600 runs (outside of the strike-shortened 1994 and 1981 campaigns) was 1972. Except, that season was also shortened by a strike, though only eight games were lost. You have to go back to 1968 to find the last and only Twins team to score fewer than 600 times in a 162-game season.

For this to be meaningful, you've got to use runs per game (to account for season length) and adjust for AL/MLB average.

 

1968 was the legendary "year of the pitcher" with Yaz's .301 batting title, Gibson's 1.12 ERA, etc.  The 1968 Twins were actually above MLB average in run scoring that year.  The 1972 Twins were only a hair below league average too, scoring 94.5% of the average MLB team's runs (and 1972 was, of course, the year where offense was so bad that it finally prompted adoption of the DH rule.)

 

The 2016 Twins have thus far scored 82.6% of the average AL team's runs.

 

The 1999 Twins scored 686 runs, which was only 81.8% of the average AL team (839 runs), so that was actually a worse performing offense relative to league, even if the absolute total was higher than the 2016 pace.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For this to be meaningful, you've got to use runs per game (to account for season length) and adjust for AL/MLB average.

 

1968 was the legendary "year of the pitcher" with Yaz's .301 batting title, Gibson's 1.12 ERA, etc.  The 1968 Twins were actually above MLB average in run scoring that year.  The 1972 Twins were only a hair below league average too, scoring 94.5% of the average MLB team's runs (and 1972 was, of course, the year where offense was so bad that it finally prompted adoption of the DH rule.)

 

The 2016 Twins have thus far scored 82.6% of the average AL team's runs.

 

The 1999 Twins scored 686 runs, which was only 81.8% of the average AL team (839 runs), so that was actually a worse performing offense relative to league, even if the absolute total was higher than the 2016 pace.

I was wondering if one of the anemic Twins' offenses of the steroid era was worse. Thanks for the research.

[tobi0040]

Nothing is more irritating than the insistence that guys like Plouffe, Nolasco, Hughes, and now we can add Dozier have trade value and need reps

Time to move on.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just eyeballing other years, the 1981 team was on a 557 run pace for 162 games, which is lower than our 2016 pace of 573 runs too, although the 1981 team average was again lower than 2016 so far, so 1999 is still the champ relative to league.

Edited May 23, 2016 by spycake

[Winston Smith]

 

I believe the technical term is:

 

 

 

Painted into a corner.  

Are you saying this from experience?

Edited May 23, 2016 by Winston Smith

[Teflon]

I believe you also see the impact of opponent pitchers "pitching around" the couple of players in the Twins lineup that pose threats. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Last year, May was the month where players across the roster blossomed and helped propel the team to 20 wins. This May, here's what the Twins have gotten from three players vying to fulfill the leadership void created by Hunter's absence:
 

Dozier: .210/.297/.281, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Mauer: .181/.260/.242, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Plouffe: .206/.227/.286, 1 HR, 5 RBI

When it comes to diagnosing this offense's problems, there are more places to point than fingers to point with. But the above numbers illustrate that the lineup is rotten at its core. And while the immense struggles of younger players are somewhat understandable, it's not as easy to forgive players who have been around as long as this trio.

I know you are looking at May to compare to last year's May success, but I'm not sure it's the best way to highlight the 2016 team's offensive struggles, especially in the context of these 3 players.  It's still not good, but the 2016 team is actually scoring more runs per game in May (3.8 RS/G) than they did in April (3.3 RS/G), despite the May struggles of the above 3 players.

 

If the Twins run scoring rate of May continues for the rest of the season, we will finish with 603 runs, which would be 86.9% of the average team's current pace, again still not good, but ahead of 2011 relative to league, and comparable to 2013 too.

 

The big difference in team performance between April and May 2016 is runs allowed -- a bad mark of 4.6 RA/G in April has somehow become an even worse mark of 6.1 RA/G in May!

 

Even comparing May 2016 to May 2015, our runs scored have dropped by ~25%, but our runs allowed have skyrocketed by ~60%!

Edited May 23, 2016 by spycake

[Winston Smith]

I know everyone likes Bruno but IMO it's time to send him on a paid summer vacation. Whatever he is doing isn't working and you have to start somewhere.

Find somebody to give this team a kick in the butt, not Vavra by the way. Only thing is whoever you replace him with make sure he has long standing ties to the Twins, we would never want an outsider.

[tobi0040]

We can't just say Mauer, Plouffe, and Dozier. Because the insistence on keeping Plouffe has weakened our best hitter (Sano).

 

While at the same time Sano is on pace for almost a negative 3 wins defensively

 

(Cue sarcastic slow clap)

[Riverbrian]

 

Are you saying this from experience?

 

Yes

 

I had to tear down a wall to get out and it's interesting to watch your wife change from uneven coverage concern to anger over the massive hole.  

 

The Twins are currently in the taking off your shoes and removing the shoe laces to try and hook the chandelier so they can Tarzan swing out of this painting themselves into a corner phase. 

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

You can vote for who to blame on Twitter:

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

I know everyone likes Bruno but IMO it's time to send him on a paid summer vacation. Whatever he is doing isn't working and you have to start somewhere.

Find somebody to give this team a kick in the butt, not Vavra by the way. Only thing is whoever you replace him with make sure he has long standing ties to the Twins, we would never want an outsider.

I'm pretty neutral on Brunansky.  On one hand, I like to hear evidence that Brunansky is the problem.  I think it's pretty clear:  the league has a pretty good book on Twins hitters. 

 

On the other hand:  If the players aren't listening to advice, who's problem is that?  That will probably target Bruno because, right or wrong, it's easier to get rid of one person than many.  Unless you bring up an entire MiLB roster   

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

You can vote for who to blame on Twitter:

 

I blame Twitter.....

[tobi0040]

I hope the GM gets 80 percent of the votes. He has fired and then hired these coaches. And drafted or signed almost all the players.

[Platoon]

I believe the technical term is:

 

 

 

Painted into a corner. 

 

 

 

 

 

The front office really has no place to go but young and they are trying so hard not to.

 

Rumor has it that Captain Smith wanted to back up the Titanic, in fact tried. But the water just kept coming in!

[Platoon]

I believe you also see the impact of opponent pitchers "pitching around" the couple of players in the Twins lineup that pose threats.

 

The Pragmatic Platoon says he can agree with this observation. The Sarcastic Platoon wonders which players you are referring to?

[troyhobbs]

I think the entire organization ought to be gutted, from FO, to coaching staff, to overpaid vets that have nothing to offer the future but I would settle for just one of those things.  My sense is that any change will continue to be of the Casey Fien, Robbie Grossman variety though, just messing around on the fringes.  Don’t want to be disloyal or make anyone sad ya know….

[nytwinsfan]

I feel like the pessimism is really getting infectious down there. This team is bad, but I refuse to believe (and I genuinely don't believe) it is this bad skill wise. I'm not blaming anyone in particular, but I really get the sense that the mood/atmosphere is dragging everyone down. Really upsetting and really concerning. When Sano comes to the plate, I don't see that twinkle in his eye anymore or the joy of taking on the pitcher. Just frustration and going through the motions. I realize posts like this aren't helping any either, but I think the Twins need to acknowledge that the atmosphere is borderline toxic right now. Something drastic needs to change, but I don't know what.

[Vanimal46]

 

I feel like the pessimism is really getting infectious down there. This team is bad, but I refuse to believe (and I genuinely don't believe) it is this bad skill wise. I'm not blaming anyone in particular, but I really get the sense that the mood/atmosphere is dragging everyone down. Really upsetting and really concerning. When Sano comes to the plate, I don't see that twinkle in his eye anymore or the joy of taking on the pitcher. Just frustration and going through the motions. I realize posts like this aren't helping any either, but I think the Twins need to acknowledge that the atmosphere is borderline toxic right now. Something drastic needs to change, but I don't know what.

I agree completely on the atmosphere being toxic. Obviously we're not in the clubhouse, but it seems like everyone has a different agenda for themselves, and it's not helping the team. There's certainly a lot of frustration that Sano is showing... Dozier is still on his own personal agenda of being a power pull hitter... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

If this is a "historically" bad offense, what does that make the pitching/defense?

 

I just ran the numbers of runs allowed per game for the Twins vs. the league since 1961 (MLB 1961-1972, AL 1973-present), and our 2016 runs allowed per game is the worst, 23.1% worse than the league.  1995 was next, 22.0% worse than the league, both of which were considerably worse than our next worst mark (2012 at 16.7%).

 

For offense, runs scored, we're at 21.1% below league average for 2016.  Our worst mark ever was 1999 at 21.5% below.  1981 wasn't far behind at 19.6%, and then comes the drop-off down to 2011 (16.7%) and 2000 (14.7%).

 

So while both are bad, runs allowed seems to be worse historically.

 

If you want to add our relative runs scored and runs allowed percentages, 2016 represents by far our worst combined season in franchise history at 44.3, which is rather historic.  Obviously that should normalize a bit by season's end, as our previous worst was 2011 at 28.9, followed by 2013 at 27.5.

 

In franchise history (1961-2016), 6 of our worst 10 seasons, and 9 of our worst 16 seasons in this measure have come under TR as GM.  Rounding out the top 16 is the last season of Bill Smith (2011), the last two seasons of Andy MacPhail (1993-1994), the last 3 full seasons of Calvin Griffith (1981-1983), and the first full season of MacPhail (1986).

Edited May 23, 2016 by spycake