Article: Troubled Youth

[Oxtung]

 

Not anymore. Only the elite of elite hitting prospects (with plus contact skills) skip or breeze through AAA. It's more common for pitchers, since the learning curve from AA to MLB is less steep.

 

Let's examine some of the top hitters in baseball last year and how many plate appearances in AAA they had before they became established, ordered by fWAR:

 

1. Harper 84 (Elite of the Elite had only 147 PAs in AA, probably best hitting prospect of all time)

2. Trout 93 (Elite of the Elite, 412 PA in AA)

3. Donaldson 1,085 (two stints in AAA)

4. Goldschmidt - no AAA (Elite contact/plus power tools as prospect after a full season 1.000+ OPS in AA and almost a 1:1 BB/K rate)

5. Votto- 580 

6.  Machado- no AAA (Solid BB/K rate during a FULL season in AA, then took 3 years to establish in MLB)

7. Cespedes- N/A Cuba

8. A.J. Pollock- 478

9. Lorenzo Cain- 672 (Several stints, appeared to have injury issues early on)

10. Kris Bryant- 330 (Half season at AA- OPS'd 1.160 in AA and 1.038 in AAA)

11. Jason Heyward- None- (First player on the list handled in a way the Twins have handled their youth- start season at A+- end at AA, start next year with ML club. But in a little more than a third of a season Heyward OPS'd 1.057 with a 1.47 BB/K rate.)

12. McCutchen- 785

13. Buster Posey- 359 (interestingly skipped AA, but had a nearly 1:1 K:BB ratio and an OPS in the mid .900 combined in A+ and AAA)

14. Chris Davis- 975 (only 202 PA in AA, 127 in AAA before initial call-up. Then it took three more full seasons of back and forth between MLB and AAA and another organization before he established himself). 

15. Kevin Kiermaier- 309 (after a full season at AA).

 

Based on my observations most players had significant playing time in AAA (some even spent a full season or more in AAA! Although many had a "cup of coffee" in sandwiched in their AAA time). The ones that breezed through or skipped AAA had FULL seasons in AA (solid April through Sept for one year), with OPS's .950+ and BB/K of at least .80. Exceptions were of course Trout, Harper (duh!), Cain (injuries), Heyward (hit and had elite BB/K rates), and Chris Davis (struggled to establish himself).

 

Contrast that to the Twins' top hitting prospects:

1. Sano- no AAA (two half seasons in AA w/ OPS in low .900's, BB/K ~0.50)

2. Buxton- 59 (Half season at AA with OPS .849, poor BB/K rates in both AA and AAA)

3. Rosario- 100 (Two half stints at AA because of suspension. OPS of .742, .672 in AA; .659 in AAA- poor BB/K rates at all stops)

4. Arcia- 155 (Half season in AA. Had OPS of .955 in AA, 1.020 in AAA, ~0.5 BB/K at both stops)

5. Vargas- No AAA- (3/4 season in AA with .832 OPS and 0.63 BB/K)

6. Santana- 105 (full season at AA, then an OPS .692, 0.21 BB/K rate at AAA)

7. Kepler- 110 (full season at AA)

8. Polanco- 148 (3/4 season at AA, two disjointed stints in AAA)

 

It appears the Twins' handling of their hitting prospects run counter to what most other teams have done with developing talent, even the elite hitting prospects. Many did not have a full season in AA, then had only a token appearance in AAA. While only Arcia and Kepler have shown any dominance of AA with an OPS in the mid .900's or higher. And only Kepler had a BB/K over .80. Most of the hitters have had poor BB/K rates in AA and AAA.

 

The Twins have rushed their hitters through the upper minors and not put them in a position to succeed. Even Mike Trout had more AA and AAA plate appearances than Buxton had before he was up full time, and Trout had a much better developed hit tool at the same stage. 

 

I don't think this list tells us much.  You are comparing DeLoreans and Lamborghinis here.  Yeah they're both "sports cars" but Lamborghini had been in business for 20 years before DeLorean even came along.  On top of that the Countach went 0-60 in 4 seconds while the DeLorean took more than 8 seconds.  Similarly the Twins are in a very different part of their win cycle than most of the teams above.  Does anyone think Santana, Vargas or Arcia would have been called up from AA if this was 2010, the Twins were in contention and they had Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome and JJ Hardy playing?  Also, half your list are overall top 20 prospects while the Twins only have 3 players that were concensus top 100 players.

 

Perhaps you're right the Twins did rush some of their prospects, though Buxton and Sano were brought up right on time compared to your list, but you'd have to compare them to other teams at a similar point in their rebuild cycles and to similar level prospects.  Until then this tells us next to nothing.

 

If anyone is interested here is a Google Sheets Doc where I started comparing them to the Astros and Cubs.  If anyone wants to continue this work farther (including finding lower tiered prospects and other rebuilding teams) please feel free.

[d-mac]

 

I don't think this list tells us much.  You are comparing DeLoreans and Lamborghinis here.  Yeah they're both "sports cars" but Lamborghini had been in business for 20 years before DeLorean even came along.  On top of that the Countach went 0-60 in 4 seconds while the DeLorean took more than 8 seconds.  Similarly the Twins are in a very different part of their win cycle than most of the teams above.  Does anyone think Santana, Vargas or Arcia would have been called up from AA if this was 2010, the Twins were in contention and they had Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome and JJ Hardy playing?  Also, half your list are overall top 20 prospects while the Twins only have 3 players that were concensus top 100 players.

 

Perhaps you're right the Twins did rush some of their prospects, though Buxton and Sano were brought up right on time compared to your list, but you'd have to compare them to other teams at a similar point in their rebuild cycles and to similar level prospects.  Until then this tells us next to nothing.

 

If anyone is interested here is a Google Sheets Doc where I started comparing them to the Astros and Cubs.  If anyone wants to continue this work farther (including finding lower tiered prospects and other rebuilding teams) please feel free.

 

So you're saying the Twins sold cocaine to help finance their failing car company? 

 

Irrelevant automotive comparisons aside, the point of my post was just to explore how the top position players in the league last year (some were top prospects, some were not) were handled in regards to time at AAA and compare that to the most recent batch of Twins young position players. I chose the top 15 players in fWAR because I wanted a sample of players that had successfully transitioned to the big leagues (while every player is unique, there has to be common criteria that determines success) and included their speed and defense contributions (vs OPS or wOBA) so I could get a look across different positions and not end up with a group of 1st basemen and corner outfielders.

 

The common take aways- 1. Very few players that had little or no time in AAA and hadn't had a full season at AA and had an OPS above .950. 

2. Nearly all players (exception of Davis and Cain) had a BB/K above .80 at both AA and AAA.

3. Only Davis had contact issues in the minors.

4. None of the Twins hitters had a BB/K above .80

5. Only Kepler and Arcia had an OPS at AA above .950

6. Many of the Twins players had contact issues in the minors.

 

In the sample you'll find a mix of teams that are both good and bad when the player was called up. A major league club's current state of affairs shouldn't affect when a player is called up, that is bad player development policy. It puts a young player at a disadvantage when trying to make the most difficult adjustment of his career, even moreso for a hitter with questionable contact skills. And yes, teams do rush players before they're ready- something the Twins appear to be guilty of lately. 

 

But Just to humor you, here are the same players, with the team's record at the end of the season in which their first significant callup occurred (excluding cups of coffee min PA=100):

 

1. Harper- WSN 2012, 98-64

2. Trout- LAA 2012, 89-73

3. Donaldson- OAK 2012, 94-68

4. Goldschmidt- ARI 2011, 94-68

5. Votto- Cin 2008, 74-88 (72-90 in 2007)

6. Machado- BAL 2012, 93-69

7. Cespedes- N/A

8. Pollock- ARI 2013, 81-81 

9. Cain- MIL 2010, 77-85

10. Bryant- CHC 2015, 97-65

11. Heyward- ATL 2010, 91-71

12. McCutchen- PIT 2009, 62-99

13. Posey- SF 2010, 92-70

14. Davis- TEX 2008, 79-83

15. Kiermaier- TB 2014, 77-85

 

Again, another interesting result: The players with the least amount of time in AAA and AA all were on teams with at least 89 or more wins (with the usual exception suspect of Chris Davis). It appears to me that clubs with playoff aspirations are more likely to call up a young position prospect early. Meanwhile, Votto and McCutchen played on the worst teams their first year and both had at least a full season in AAA. This essentially disproves your theory that the players with a lot of time in the high minors because their orgs could afford to wait and/or had a quality player blocking them. When a player deserves to be called up- a club will find a spot for them. I'm sure Pirates and Reds fans were clamoring to see a young Votto and McCutchen called up. 

 

And again, this is counter to what the Twins have done lately. They have called up their supposed core of the next winning era far too early, despite not being a serious contender. This smacks of desperation by the front office and/or ownership and is ultimately detrimental to the young prospects. 

Edited May 23, 2016 by d-mac

[Oxtung]

 

So you're saying the Twins sold cocaine to help finance their failing car company? 

 

Irrelevant automotive comparisons aside, the point of my post was just to explore how the top position players in the league last year (some were top prospects, some were not) were handled in regards to time at AAA and compare that to the most recent batch of Twins young position players. I chose the top 15 players in fWAR because I wanted a sample of players that had successfully transitioned to the big leagues (while every player is unique, there has to be common criteria that determines success) and included their speed and defense contributions (vs OPS or wOBA) so I could get a look across different positions and not end up with a group of 1st basemen and corner outfielders.

 

The common take aways- 1. Very few players that had little or no time in AAA and hadn't had a full season at AA and had an OPS above .950. 

2. Nearly all players (exception of Davis and Cain) had a BB/K above .80 at both AA and AAA.

3. Only Davis had contact issues in the minors.

4. None of the Twins hitters had a BB/K above .80

5. Only Kepler and Arcia had an OPS at AA above .950

6. Many of the Twins players had contact issues in the minors.

 

In the sample you'll find a mix of teams that are both good and bad when the player was called up. A major league club's current state of affairs shouldn't affect when a player is called up, that is bad player development policy. It puts a young player at a disadvantage when trying to make the most difficult adjustment of his career, even moreso for a hitter with questionable contact skills. And yes, teams do rush players before they're ready- something the Twins appear to be guilty of lately. 

 

But Just to humor you, here are the same players, with the team's record at the end of the season in which their first significant callup occurred (excluding cups of coffee min PA=100):

 

1. Harper- WSN 2012, 98-64

2. Trout- LAA 2012, 89-73

3. Donaldson- OAK 2012, 94-68

4. Goldschmidt- ARI 2011, 94-68

5. Votto- Cin 2008, 74-88 (72-90 in 2007)

6. Machado- BAL 2012, 93-69

7. Cespedes- N/A

8. Pollock- ARI 2013, 81-81 

9. Cain- MIL 2010, 77-85

10. Bryant- CHC 2015, 97-65

11. Heyward- ATL 2010, 91-71

12. McCutchen- PIT 2009, 62-99

13. Posey- SF 2010, 92-70

14. Davis- TEX 2008, 79-83

15. Kiermaier- TB 2014, 77-85

 

Again, another interesting result: The players with the least amount of time in AAA and AA all were on teams with at least 89 or more wins (with the usual exception suspect of Chris Davis). It appears to me that clubs with playoff aspirations are more likely to call up a young position prospect early. Meanwhile, Votto and McCutchen played on the worst teams their first year and both had at least a full season in AAA. This essentially disproves your theory that the players with a lot of time in the high minors because their orgs could afford to wait and/or had a quality player blocking them. When a player deserves to be called up- a club will find a spot for them. I'm sure Pirates and Reds fans were clamoring to see a young Votto and McCutchen called up. 

 

And again, this is counter to what the Twins have done lately. They have called up their supposed core of the next winning era far too early, despite not being a serious contender. This smacks of desperation by the front office and/or ownership and is ultimately detrimental to the young prospects. 

You seem to be doubling down here.  I'm not saying your idea doesn't have merit.  You could very possibly be right that the Twins did rush good, but not great prospects like Arcia, Santana, Rosario, etc....  

 

My point is the list you chose does not represent the reality of where the Twins currently are at, nor does it represent the quality of the prospect the Twins have (excluding Buxton and Sano).  In addition no solid conclusions can be drawn by looking at just 15 players (especially when those are the best 15 players in the league).  

 

So again, I'm not criticizing your idea.  I just think we need more data from teams that are in the position the Twins currently find themselves in.  In an effort to find more of that data I gathered another 10ish players from the Astros and Cubs as examples.

 

In an effort to put us back on track here I think we need to differentiate by prospect level.  Great prospects like Sano, Buxton, Lindor, Correia, Mauer, Harper, Hayward, etc... are treated differently than the Arcia, Rosario, etc... which in turn are treated differently than the marginal guys like Vargas, Santana etc...  At least that is my contention.