Article: Troubled Youth

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah I was surprised, too, with some of what I found. The common refrain from many of the traditional prospect guys tends to be that AAA just isn't important for the development of prospects and is just a repository for replacement level players. Just based on the research I've done for fantasy baseball and following prospects the past few years is that this hasn't been how teams have treated AAA for 10 years now. Teams are very deliberate with the amount of time hitters spend in AA and AAA and will make the prospect prove they can control the strike zone while putting up a high OPS.

 

Conversely, this is more from anecdotal evidence (I'm not going to research this -it'll take just way too long), but most teams tend to move their prospects fairly quickly through rookie and A ball, especially players drafted out of college. This makes since, because each step between rookie and A+ is fairly small. A+-AA, then AAA-MLB are extremely huge jumps. The Twins force full season stops at Rookie ball, A ball, and A+ (even for college hitters that dominate inferior competition), while pushing hitters fairly quickly from A+ to the majors.

 

I hope I'm wrong here, but after doing this research I'm fairly worried that many of the Twins young players are on the Chris Davis path. Sure, Davis turned into an elite power hitter, but only after several seasons of getting shuffled between AAA and MLB and changing orgs. And he still has strikeout issues. The last Twins position player to come up that had significant playing time in AAA was Trevor Plouffe and before that Denard Span. Yeah, Ben Revere and Dozier with little time at AAA came up and hit fairly quickly, but Revere also had elite contact ability (probably too good for his lack of power) and Dozier is likely a product of Target Field.

I just want to say this entire post is full of excellence, in case anyone just skimmed past it they should really go back and read it.

[d-mac]

 

I just want to say this entire post is full of excellence, in case anyone just skimmed past it they should really go back and read it.

 

Thanks! I'm glad my posts are appreciated and adding to the discussion!

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

 

 

It appears the Twins' handling of their hitting prospects run counter to what most other teams have done with developing talent, even the elite hitting prospects. Many did not have a full season in AA, then had only a token appearance in AAA. While only Arcia and Kepler have shown any dominance of AA with an OPS in the mid .900's or higher. And only Kepler had a BB/K over .80. Most of the hitters have had poor BB/K rates in AA and AAA.

 

The Twins have rushed their hitters through the upper minors and not put them in a position to succeed. Even Mike Trout had more AA and AAA plate appearances than Buxton had before he was up full time, and Trout had a much better developed hit tool at the same stage. 

So, are they leaving them in the low-minors too long, and or starting them too low in some cases? It seems that maybe guys should be moved up quickly in the low minors if they are showing real success for a sustained time, in order to spend more time in the more challenging, yet still developmental upper minors.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So, are they leaving them in the low-minors too long, and or starting them too low in some cases? It seems that maybe guys should be moved up quickly in the low minors if they are showing real success for a sustained time, in order to spend more time in the more challenging, yet still developmental upper minors.

 

That has been my argument for some time. KLAW has said the same thing, I believe, about the Twins. Get them to AA faster, then see what you have.

[d-mac]

 

So, are they leaving them in the low-minors too long, and or starting them too low in some cases? It seems that maybe guys should be moved up quickly in the low minors if they are showing real success for a sustained time, in order to spend more time in the more challenging, yet still developmental upper minors.

 

Maybe some combination of both? As long as I can remember, even when the farm system was poor, the E-town Twins always have a winning record. My guess is that is because too many college players are in the Appy league, when other teams would have moved them to low A ball (or Short-Season A, which the Twins don't have). Nor do I think it's a typical practice for late round college (hitters and pitchers) to spend a season each in the GCL (generally for recent high school and first state-side stop for young int'l kids) and the Appy league equivalent rookie level.  

[d-mac]

 

That has been my argument for some time. KLAW has said the same thing, I believe, about the Twins. Get them to AA faster, then see what you have.

 

As we're just now finding out, so many of these prospects are being added to the 40-man because they've used up their minor league time before they get to spend much time in AA ball. 

[Vanimal46]

 

As we're just now finding out, so many of these prospects are being added to the 40-man because they've used up their minor league time before they get to spend much time in AA ball. 

Great point. Like you said, it seems like they're being too conservative at the lower-levels when they could be a little more aggressive to get these guys to Fort Myers or Chattanooga faster. It would save more difficult decisions like should we protect, Yorman Landa as an example, when he hasn't pitched above A ball.

[Blake]

 

As we're just now finding out, so many of these prospects are being added to the 40-man because they've used up their minor league time before they get to spend much time in AA ball. 

And how in the world do you fix this mess? It looks to me like clearing space on the 40 man by dumping players risks losing players with a good chance at a solid MLB career.

 

Not everyone can be a superstar but solid players don't exactly grow on trees either.

[d-mac]

 

Great point. Like you said, it seems like they're being too conservative at the lower-levels when they could be a little more aggressive to get these guys to Fort Myers or Chattanooga faster. It would save more difficult decisions like should we protect, Yorman Landa as an example, when he hasn't pitched above A ball.

 

Who in the world would draft an A-ball pitcher post TJ in the rule 5? Another dumb decision. 

[d-mac]

 

And how in the world do you fix this mess? It looks to me like clearing space on the 40 man by dumping players risks losing players with a good chance at a solid MLB career.

 

Not everyone can be a superstar but solid players don't exactly grow on trees either.

 

Unfortunately, I don't know if it can be fixed without attrition of players with potential and sell-low trades. 

[Blake]

 

Who in the world would draft an A-ball pitcher post TJ in the rule 5? Another dumb decision. 

An A ball pitcher in the Rule 5? What? Someone available in the Rule 5 who has never pitched above A? That sounds like a "never will" if they're only in A ball yet available in the Rule 5.

[d-mac]

 

An A ball pitcher in the Rule 5? What? Someone available in the Rule 5 who has never pitched above A? That sounds like a "never will" if they're only in A ball yet available in the Rule 5.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa597276&position=P

[mikelink45]

The Twins believe in an old vet with diminishing skills, Torii Hunter, to give sanity and perspective to the team, but they do not think of alternatives that might help the new young talents, like maybe a professional baseball counselor.  I know that goes against the baseball gods, but the new players are different from the past and, obviously, the Twins have not figured out how to integrate them to the majors, how to help them transition, how to get them to adjust to adjustments.  Other teams bring up their young players and watch them thrive - see the Chicago Cubs, but are those players more talented, better adjusted than Berrios, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco?  

 

We have talent that is beyond my old brain to put a value on, yet we bring them up and down, sit them, play them, and seem to have no answers.  Why?  

 

We cannot afford to waste this talent, these players who have consistently given us the top rated minor leagues.  Some players will flop, but this is too many.  Even the players who came up and did not revert develop some questions.

Sano is still here and okay, but not the MVP player some speculated.  Why?  They adjusted to him.  He has too much talent to fail, but what have we done to help him succeed at the level where he belongs?

Duffey came up and just about carried us to the playoffs despite other collapses.  Then when he experiments with a changeup in the spring training he gets sent down for not having sterling statistics, only to reemerge and once again be our best pitcher.

 

On Bullpen calls up are not fixing the damage and then I start to think about our pitching coach.  Is he doing his job, is Molitor able to handle this?  The FO, I believe, does not deserve anyone believing in them.  

 

A mess, much more than that, a disaster.  And the fans?  Who will council us?

[operation mindcrime]

This team should've been 100% committed to a rebuild after 2013! I have zero confidence in T.R. overseeing one that should start now! \m/

[Deduno Abides]

I think the bottom line is, Terry Ryan and his cohorts are TERRIBLE evaluators of talent.....which of course means, as long as he stays, there is no hope for improvement

 

You mean "developers" of talent, don't you? Guys leave the Twins and succeed. Neutral evaluators give high marks to the collected talent. They're just not progressing like they would with a league average development team. Wasn't Goins on here about a year ago to explain why they were wise not to implement video review in the minors until last or 2014? As if modern 20-year olds struggle to understand how to use video. They can try to claim credit all they want for being cheap and behind the times, but the proof is on the field.

[gil4]

Berrios became just the seventh starter in Twins history to allow seven earned runs while lasting less than one inning.

 

I was at this game in 1986.  Viola would have probably gone past 7 ER if he had been allowed to pitch long enough to get two outs.  He turned out OK. 

(HR by Gagne off Clemens is probably still in orbit.) 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS198605200.shtml

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

So, are they leaving them in the low-minors too long, and or starting them too low in some cases? It seems that maybe guys should be moved up quickly in the low minors if they are showing real success for a sustained time, in order to spend more time in the more challenging, yet still developmental upper minors.

Like, WTF is a 22 LaMonte Wade doing in A ball at this point? Shouldn't he be pushing to be in AA right now, if he's considered any type of prospect? Get them up early, so they can work through it early. 

 

Again though, as has been mentioned by others and myself, it isn't jus the success or lack there of by our hitting prospects, but the process that is leading to it. If a guy is having sustained success and his peripherals and process back up his traditional stats, then by all means "he might be ready." But, if a guy is swinging at everything and is succeeding because everything is just dropping, there is little tape or book on him going into games,  or facing less electric stuff or breaking pitches, or whatever else you might need to question his success. Sorry, I am never going to believe in Walker and never did as a major league hitter because of his process to how he was succeeding was not good and now its catching up to him, Rosario/Santana/Buxton are verying degrees of talents and prospects, but the are all 'toolsy' athletes that relied on just that to succeed, not their minds. Fast guys are fun when they are lucky, but they are. They should have figured these no discipline guys were bound to struggle. 

[adorduan]

Speaking of fundamental issues, why can no one on this roster lay down a decent bunt? I've been slow to criticize the coaching staff because they're a likable cast, some of which I was a fan of when they themselves were players, but, there are so many things this teams is awful at....

 

Danny Santana seems like he is getting to be a decent bunter. He's about the only one though.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Not anymore. Only the elite of elite hitting prospects (with plus contact skills) skip or breeze through AAA. It's more common for pitchers, since the learning curve from AA to MLB is less steep.

 

Let's examine some of the top hitters in baseball last year and how many plate appearances in AAA they had before they became established, ordered by fWAR:

 

1. Harper 84 (Elite of the Elite had only 147 PAs in AA, probably best hitting prospect of all time)

2. Trout 93 (Elite of the Elite, 412 PA in AA)

3. Donaldson 1,085 (two stints in AAA)

4. Goldschmidt - no AAA (Elite contact/plus power tools as prospect after a full season 1.000+ OPS in AA and almost a 1:1 BB/K rate)

5. Votto- 580 

6.  Machado- no AAA (Solid BB/K rate during a FULL season in AA, then took 3 years to establish in MLB)

7. Cespedes- N/A Cuba

8. A.J. Pollock- 478

9. Lorenzo Cain- 672 (Several stints, appeared to have injury issues early on)

10. Kris Bryant- 330 (Half season at AA- OPS'd 1.160 in AA and 1.038 in AAA)

11. Jason Heyward- None- (First player on the list handled in a way the Twins have handled their youth- start season at A+- end at AA, start next year with ML club. But in a little more than a third of a season Heyward OPS'd 1.057 with a 1.47 BB/K rate.)

12. McCutchen- 785

13. Buster Posey- 359 (interestingly skipped AA, but had a nearly 1:1 K:BB ratio and an OPS in the mid .900 combined in A+ and AAA)

14. Chris Davis- 975 (only 202 PA in AA, 127 in AAA before initial call-up. Then it took three more full seasons of back and forth between MLB and AAA and another organization before he established himself). 

15. Kevin Kiermaier- 309 (after a full season at AA).

 

Based on my observations most players had significant playing time in AAA (some even spent a full season or more in AAA! Although many had a "cup of coffee" in sandwiched in their AAA time). The ones that breezed through or skipped AAA had FULL seasons in AA (solid April through Sept for one year), with OPS's .950+ and BB/K of at least .80. Exceptions were of course Trout, Harper (duh!), Cain (injuries), Heyward (hit and had elite BB/K rates), and Chris Davis (struggled to establish himself).

 

Contrast that to the Twins' top hitting prospects:

1. Sano- no AAA (two half seasons in AA w/ OPS in low .900's, BB/K ~0.50)

2. Buxton- 59 (Half season at AA with OPS .849, poor BB/K rates in both AA and AAA)

3. Rosario- 100 (Two half stints at AA because of suspension. OPS of .742, .672 in AA; .659 in AAA- poor BB/K rates at all stops)

4. Arcia- 155 (Half season in AA. Had OPS of .955 in AA, 1.020 in AAA, ~0.5 BB/K at both stops)

5. Vargas- No AAA- (3/4 season in AA with .832 OPS and 0.63 BB/K)

6. Santana- 105 (full season at AA, then an OPS .692, 0.21 BB/K rate at AAA)

7. Kepler- 110 (full season at AA)

8. Polanco- 148 (3/4 season at AA, two disjointed stints in AAA)

 

It appears the Twins' handling of their hitting prospects run counter to what most other teams have done with developing talent, even the elite hitting prospects. Many did not have a full season in AA, then had only a token appearance in AAA. While only Arcia and Kepler have shown any dominance of AA with an OPS in the mid .900's or higher. And only Kepler had a BB/K over .80. Most of the hitters have had poor BB/K rates in AA and AAA.

 

The Twins have rushed their hitters through the upper minors and not put them in a position to succeed. Even Mike Trout had more AA and AAA plate appearances than Buxton had before he was up full time, and Trout had a much better developed hit tool at the same stage. 

 

I need to bookmark this for the next time I hear someone say the Twins promote too slow.  Honestly, I see impatience here as the root cause, though in a few cases, need and a potential option on the 40 man certain plays in.  A cup of coffee is one thing though.  Handing a job to Buxton when he's clearly not ready is a whole different thing.

 

2015 was a breath of fresh air after a really bad four year stretch, but I think this reinforces (for me at least) that most of these guys still need(ed) more seasoning in the high minors. 

[twinssporto]

 

To me it's so obvious, although I know I'm in the vast minority here... there are no real veteran players on this team. No player in the organization is over 33 years old. These young pups get up to the Show and have no one to guide them on the field. Not to totally discount the coaches, but having a Torii or two out there as fellow teammates, regardless of their on-field performance, I believe does wonders. Dozier and Plouffe, said to be the new clubhouse leaders, are not veteran players. They have 3 and 4 full seasons experience, respectively. On some other teams THEY would be the young guys. The "older" players on this team aren't guys to serve as mentors, it seems. If I had been in charge, there would have been a couple veteran "character" signings this off-season.

I couldn't agree more.  Everyone keeps pointing up at the FO (yes they have problems too) but if you want to see a turnaround it starts in the clubhouse.  I've said this before in other posts:  Please name one player in that clubhouse that acts like a real leader?  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Maybe some combination of both? As long as I can remember, even when the farm system was poor, the E-town Twins always have a winning record. My guess is that is because too many college players are in the Appy league, when other teams would have moved them to low A ball (or Short-Season A, which the Twins don't have). Nor do I think it's a typical practice for late round college (hitters and pitchers) to spend a season each in the GCL (generally for recent high school and first state-side stop for young int'l kids) and the Appy league equivalent rookie level.  

 

I think it's more common than we realize.  The average age at Etown is around 20.  You won't get that number with HS/international players.  Lots of teams have college players there, enough to bring that average age up to 20. 

 

Rookie leagues are there more for transition purposes just as much as they are for development.  These guys are going from full time school/part time baseball to full time baseball.  They are transitioning from metal bats to wooden.  They are transitioning from being the big man on campus to one fish in the pond, and they are now being tossed in an environment where they need to be real careful about what types of friends the make.

 

I don't think the issue is an extra month or two in the low minors.  But based on what you posted earlier, it's clear that guys are being pulled out of the high minors far too quick.  I'd also say that I don't think the Twins are putting enough emphasis on reducing those strike out rates.  Conventional baseball wisdom used to be that an out was an out.  While I don't think one K is necessarily bad, a high K rate is indicative of a pattern of behavior that leads to giving away far too many at bats, and it's a pattern that can exploited quite easily at the major league level, as teams value pitchers who can get the K.  It's why I'm perfectly fine leaving a guy like Walker where he's at, and it's why I'd have been perfectly fine letting Buxton start this season (and spend most of it) in AAA.  Just because a guy can post a sexy stat line doesn't mean he's ready to move up. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I couldn't agree more.  Everyone keeps pointing up at the FO (yes they have problems too) but if you want to see a turnaround it starts in the clubhouse.  I've said this before in other posts:  Please name one player in that clubhouse that acts like a real leader?  

 

Makes me rethink my dislike for the Hunter signing last year.  Like it or not, he was that guy.  The problem is that there's no way to quantify that type of an impact.

[Riverbrian]

 

As we're just now finding out, so many of these prospects are being added to the 40-man because they've used up their minor league time before they get to spend much time in AA ball. 

 

This looks really familiar. 

[Riverbrian]

 

No, not unreasonable.  I'm more referring to some of our own suggestions of what we would do.  I'm pretty convinced that if the collective here ran the Twins, we'd have nothing but 90 loss season in our future too.  We get tunnel vision b/c we don't really pay attention to how other orgs are run and hold the Twins to a standard that no MLB team could reasonably reach.  I don't have a problem complaining when they things wrong (the chief of which was not having a good CF backup plan, and lesser issues was not addressing the SP log jam by trading Milone this offseason when he might have netted a scratch off ticket).

 

I'm not sure the average fan has a good understanding of baseball economics much less what it actually takes to develop and acquire talent (and I'm not claiming that I do either).  Lots of folks on the board seem to think that struggles are nothing more than a player getting unlucky and that free agents can be picked up and discarded in the same manner that they are in the NFL.   Others would trade away the farm for vets on the wrong side of 30 (see Shields, James whose name comes up here frequently or even better, go look up all the threads saying we should get Nolasco/Santana prior to them being a Twin) while others would waste service time calling up guys who have no business playing in the majors with the idea that they should just be able to succeed.  Others expect results after a dozen games and if they aren't there simply write the guy off as a bust.

 

I realize that these are all different people with all different manners of view, but I suspect that just about everyone of us would end up unemployed in a short manner if we got to move from armchair GM to real GM.  I'm not saying we shouldn't criticize the front office because quite frankly, they deserve it at some times, but I am saying that we should probably approach it with just a little bit of humility, because I think we all suffer from that tunnel vision in one way or another. 

 

Awesome

[Mr. Brooks]

No, not unreasonable. I'm more referring to some of our own suggestions of what we would do. I'm pretty convinced that if the collective here ran the Twins, we'd have nothing but 90 loss season in our future too. We get tunnel vision b/c we don't really pay attention to how other orgs are run and hold the Twins to a standard that no MLB team could reasonably reach. I don't have a problem complaining when they things wrong (the chief of which was not having a good CF backup plan, and lesser issues was not addressing the SP log jam by trading Milone this offseason when he might have netted a scratch off ticket).

 

I'm not sure the average fan has a good understanding of baseball economics much less what it actually takes to develop and acquire talent (and I'm not claiming that I do either). Lots of folks on the board seem to think that struggles are nothing more than a player getting unlucky and that free agents can be picked up and discarded in the same manner that they are in the NFL. Others would trade away the farm for vets on the wrong side of 30 (see Shields, James whose name comes up here frequently or even better, go look up all the threads saying we should get Nolasco/Santana prior to them being a Twin) while others would waste service time calling up guys who have no business playing in the majors with the idea that they should just be able to succeed. Others expect results after a dozen games and if they aren't there simply write the guy off as a bust.

 

I realize that these are all different people with all different manners of view, but I suspect that just about everyone of us would end up unemployed in a short manner if we got to move from armchair GM to real GM. I'm not saying we shouldn't criticize the front office because quite frankly, they deserve it at some times, but I am saying that we should probably approach it with just a little bit of humility, because I think we all suffer from that tunnel vision in one way or another.

Most years this is probably true.

But, I don't have to be a professional chef to know when I'm being served dog food.

[jorgenswest]

Players will struggle when enter the majors. They can't learn to hit major league pitching in AAA. Players might need two full seasons of major league plate appearances to make adjustments and show consistency. It is hard to wait out those 1000 or more plate appearances.

 

There is important development that happens at AAA. Pitch recognition at the forefront as there are older pitchers with more refined change ups and breaking balls. Players should be given the chance to find sustained (1/2 season) success against AAA pitching. With that success, they can be ready to struggle at the major league level. The Twins have brought up several players with little AAA experience. Many were sent back. They need to show a long stretch of sustained success before they return.

[Riverbrian]

 

I won't argue that there are some on this board that will criticize no matter what, but we did all have different opinions of what should be done.  I'd have rolled with Sweeney or signed a stop gap CF on a 1 year contract.  I'd have also traded Milone.  I probably would have kept Plouffe based on what Todd Frasier netted in his trade, and as such, Sano would have been in RF.   

 

I agree that no one saw this collapse, and that makes me wonder if they will regress a bit positively, but I think my bigger concern right now is the decision to go young when your manager refuses to play young talent.  Something has to give there.  I was pretty happy with Molitor last season, but if Molitor has Gardy level distaste for young talent, then quite frankly this was an awful hire.  I could care less about shifts and stats (OK, maybe not), but truthfully, the most important aspect of Gardy's replacement was the ability to develop talent.  I'd think that could be flushed out pretty easily in an interview. 

 

I've been trying to think of a way out of this and the only solution I can think of is:  

 

The youngsters performing.

 

With that 40 Man in it's current state... The youth has to advance or spoil and a manager who is willing to cast aside youth to scrape out a win in the teams current predicament sure seems problematic to me. 

 

I don't ever want to condemn a manager for not thinking like me but... 

 

It just seems obvious to me and hopefully everyone that the youth on the 40 man are reaching a put up or shut up crisis and not ready to put up problem that may only be worse in 2017. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

The Twins believe in an old vet with diminishing skills, Torii Hunter, to give sanity and perspective to the team, but they do not think of alternatives that might help the new young talents, like maybe a professional baseball counselor.  I know that goes against the baseball gods, but the new players are different from the past and, obviously, the Twins have not figured out how to integrate them to the majors, how to help them transition, how to get them to adjust to adjustments.  Other teams bring up their young players and watch them thrive - see the Chicago Cubs, but are those players more talented, better adjusted than Berrios, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco?  

 

We have talent that is beyond my old brain to put a value on, yet we bring them up and down, sit them, play them, and seem to have no answers.  Why?  

 

We cannot afford to waste this talent, these players who have consistently given us the top rated minor leagues.  Some players will flop, but this is too many.  Even the players who came up and did not revert develop some questions.

Sano is still here and okay, but not the MVP player some speculated.  Why?  They adjusted to him.  He has too much talent to fail, but what have we done to help him succeed at the level where he belongs?

Duffey came up and just about carried us to the playoffs despite other collapses.  Then when he experiments with a changeup in the spring training he gets sent down for not having sterling statistics, only to reemerge and once again be our best pitcher.

 

On Bullpen calls up are not fixing the damage and then I start to think about our pitching coach.  Is he doing his job, is Molitor able to handle this?  The FO, I believe, does not deserve anyone believing in them.  

 

A mess, much more than that, a disaster.  And the fans?  Who will council us?

 

The Cubs play them.

 

Neither Soler or Baez are considered to be starters and both have struggled and not reached the lofty expectations put on them by others who speculate about such things. 

 

Yet Maddon still manages to give them playing time. 

 

Everyone watched the Cubs acquire Heyward, Zobrist while resigning Fowler and everyone thought... obviously they have to trade Baez and Soler... only 8 can play every day... no starting spot for them... they must go. 

 

Nope... Interesting approach they took instead.  They kept them and they actually play them more often then the random getaway day line-up that other managers employ for an example of creativity. 

 

[mikelink45]

 

The Cubs play them.

 

Neither Soler or Baez are considered to be starters and both have struggled and not reached the lofty expectations put on them by others who speculate about such things. 

 

Yet Maddon still manages to give them playing time. 

 

Everyone watched the Cubs acquire Heyward, Zobrist while resigning Fowler and everyone thought... obviously they have to trade Baez and Soler... only 8 can play every day... no starting spot for them... they must go. 

 

Nope... Interesting approach they took instead.  They kept them and they actually play them more often then the random getaway day line-up that other managers employ for an example of creativity. 

Nice response to my thought exercise.  Maddon has been creative and that is essential in bringing young talent along.  

[Mr. Brooks]

What did Jorge Polanco see that got him in the witness protection system?

Seriously, why is he even on the team?

This is absurd, send him back to AAA so he can get some AB's to build his trade value.