Article: One Guy's Plan

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On the other hand, I think that Plouffe, Dozier, and E. Santana have a little trade value because their contracts are reasonable.  If you are a team needing a 3B for a stretch run Plouffe would be a perfect acquisition:  expiring contract, reasonable, veteran skill.  

Teams rarely trade for long-term contracts in July, and probably not at the Dozier/Ervin Santana level of player, even if they are not bad players.

 

I am sure some team(s) will have interest in Plouffe and his shorter-term guarantee, but not necessarily at any price the Twins would want to accept.  If the prospect is closer to Jason Adam / Alex Presley than to a top 100 guy, should the Twins do that?  And is that level of return going to be affected if Plouffe sits a bit more over the next couple months for Polanco and Sano?

[Blackjack]

 

We all know that teams make deals in July.  But what's the likely return for mediocre veterans?  Find me a guy (and contract) in the class of Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, etc. who fetched a meaningful return in July.

 

And even if they fetch something modest -- how much does that modest return have to do with their playing time in June & July?  The above names are all very much veteran known quantities -- we can't exactly predict their performance, but we know the range pretty well.  And they're mostly controlled for multiple years, so short-term streaks are much less meaningful to their July trade value.

 

Put simply: guys like Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, etc. aren't going to fetch a top 100 prospect in July, and they're not going to fetch a meaningfully different class of prospect due to their playing time and likely performance range in the 2 months leading up to the deadline either.  Similarly, especially for those starting pitchers, teams aren't going to pick up 100% of their salary in July, and they're not going to pick up a meaningfully larger portion of their salary due to their playing time in the 2 months leading up to the leading either.

Its simple supply and demand, demand will LOTS higher in July.  And if one of those veterans is 'hot' and has 20 home runs they're worth a lot more than right now. Same for the pitchers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Its simple supply and demand, demand will LOTS higher in July.  And if one of those veterans is 'hot' and has 20 home runs they're worth a lot more than right now. Same for the pitchers.

Even teams trading for "hot" players don't want guys with 2-3 guaranteed big money seasons remaining.  Our three veteran SP are more likely to be August waiver trades than have LOTS of demand in July.

 

Although I also think you are overrating the value of hotness.  Plouffe doesn't have a long-term guaranteed deal, but he is 30 years old, has over 2600 MLB PA, and has been largely the same hitter throughout.  No one is going to pay "a lot more" based on his next two months of performance (~200 PA).

 

And of course, having 20 HR in late July will hardly be an indication that these guys are out-performing their career numbers anyway.  Dozier or Plouffe might have 20 HR at that point with no more than a 110 OPS+, within their established range of performance.

 

And the chance that these players will turn in such a superlative performance over the next 2 months (130 OPS+/ERA+) is probably so slim that it's not worth shutting out most of your young players until August to find out.

Edited May 18, 2016 by spycake

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That's probably part of my point. Instead of continuing to call up Polanco and having him play one out of every five games, just leave him down so that he can play every single day at AAA. Call up Beresford and let him play a couple times a week instead. Polanco has never spent more than a few weeks straight at AAA.  Same with Buxton.

 

Seth, what have you seen from Polanco that makes you believe he shouldn't be playing full time on the MLB team? And, is this his last option year?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And, is this his last option year?

This is Polanco's last option year.  Which makes it especially odd why you'd want to restrict his potential MLB opportunity to August and September...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Its simple supply and demand, demand will LOTS higher in July.  And if one of those veterans is 'hot' and has 20 home runs they're worth a lot more than right now. Same for the pitchers.

And as always, I welcome past examples of players with similar contract/performance getting dealt in July. I think you will find your theories about demand and return being a lot higher for these guys to be untrue in reality.

[Mike Sixel]

I think a lot less trades happen than people think......and has any team traded 3-5 players mid year? I doubt it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think a lot less trades happen than people think......and has any team traded 3-5 players mid year? I doubt it.

Good point!  Seth's plan seems to be, play all the veterans to prepare for a July trade -- but not is their trade value questionable, it seems particularly unlikely that more than 1 or 2 of them could actually be dealt.  (Even if we wanted to deal more, doing so would signal fire sale and probably lower our leverage quite drastically.)

 

The better plan is probably betting now on which vets you think can be dealt and need to play in the meantime, and then still working young players in around them.  For all I know, maybe the Twins think they are doing that, but to me it seems they are doing a pretty poor job so far.

Edited May 18, 2016 by spycake

[Blackjack]

 

Even teams trading for "hot" players don't want guys with 2-3 guaranteed big money seasons remaining.  Our three veteran SP are more likely to be August waiver trades than have LOTS of demand in July.

 

Although I also think you are overrating the value of hotness.  Plouffe doesn't have a long-term guaranteed deal, but he is 30 years old, has over 2600 MLB PA, and has been largely the same hitter throughout.  No one is going to pay "a lot more" based on his next two months of performance (~200 PA).

 

And of course, having 20 HR in late July will hardly be an indication that these guys are out-performing their career numbers anyway.  Dozier or Plouffe might have 20 HR at that point with no more than a 110 OPS+, within their established range of performance.

 

And the chance that these players will turn in such a superlative performance over the next 2 months (130 OPS+/ERA+) is probably so slim that it's not worth shutting out most of your young players until August to find out.

 

Its still supply and demand -- mainly demand in June/July as teams realize they could use some help at a position and they don't have any internal options, they've tried out their top minor league talent in April/May, they think they that they need to make a trade - hence more demand later in the summer.  More demand means you can play one team against the other.  The trade return may not be much but it will be higher than it is now. 

 

Teams also get a little more desperate, they haven't been to the playoffs in awhile or other teams in their division make a trade to improve, they get more desperate - more demand.  And once a few trades get made, the supply goes down, less players available at that position.

 

Supply and demand.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Its still supply and demand -- mainly demand in June/July as teams realize they could use some help at a position and they don't have any internal options, they've tried out their top minor league talent in April/May, they think they that they need to make a trade - hence more demand later in the summer.  More demand means you can play one team against the other.  The trade return may not be much but it will be higher than it is now. 

 

Teams also get a little more desperate, they haven't been to the playoffs in awhile or other teams in their division make a trade to improve, they get more desperate - more demand.  And once a few trades get made, the supply goes down, less players available at that position.

 

Supply and demand.

I understand the theory of supply and demand.

 

How does any of that apply to most of the Twins veteran trade candidates, who are guaranteed money well beyond 2016?  Teams don't trade for multiple expensive years of average-ish players in July.  Again, if you have any historical examples that say otherwise, please share, but textbook definitions of supply and demand don't say much about the real-world example of Twins players/contracts that we are discussing.

 

 

The trade return may not be much but it will be higher than it is now. 

 

Isn't this the most salient point?  The magnitude of the theoretical increase, balanced against costs of salary and less playing time for prospect, is far more important than the simple academic question of whether it is higher in absolute terms.  Maybe Plouffe could net an organization's #15 prospect on July 31st, while he could only net a #20-25 today.  But it will cost the Twins an additional ~$2.5 mil in salary to keep Plouffe until July 31st, and it will cost them 2 months MLB playing time for their own #6 prospect (Polanco) who is out of options next spring.  (Not to mention that there is risk in market factors not improving by July 31st, if more 3B solutions emerge around the league than new 3B problems develop, or if Plouffe tails off or gets injured -- a better return, or even any return, on July 31st is likely but not guaranteed.)

 

It's much more complicated than you or Seth are suggesting.

Edited May 18, 2016 by spycake

[Blackjack]

 

I understand the theory of supply and demand.

 

How does any of that apply to most of the Twins veteran trade candidates, who are guaranteed money well beyond 2016?  Teams don't trade for multiple expensive years of average-ish players in July.  Again, if you have any historical examples that say otherwise, please share, but textbook definitions of supply and demand don't say much about the real-world example of Twins players/contracts that we are discussing.

 

 

 

Isn't this the most salient point?  The magnitude of the theoretical increase, balanced against costs of salary and less playing time for prospect, is far more important than the simple academic question of whether it is higher in absolute terms.  Maybe Plouffe could net an organization's #15 prospect on July 31st, while he could only net a #20-25 today.  But it will cost the Twins an additional ~$2.5 mil in salary to keep Plouffe until July 31st, and it will cost them 2 months MLB playing time for their own #6 prospect (Polanco) who is out of options next spring.  (Not to mention that there is risk in market factors not improving by July 31st, if more 3B solutions emerge around the league than new 3B problems develop, or if Plouffe tails off or gets injured -- a better return, or even any return, on July 31st is likely but not guaranteed.)

 

It's much more complicated than you or Seth are suggesting.

Does anybody thats not a baseball GM really know what Plouffe is worth now or in July??

 

Only time will tell. 

 

I think you're overthinking it but -- you win.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Does anybody thats not a baseball GM really know what Plouffe is worth now or in July??

 

Only time will tell. 

 

I think you're overthinking it but -- you win.

It was just an example.

 

I think Seth's plan of "play all the vets, hope to trade them in July, and then call up youngsters in August" is rather under-thinking it, that's all.

 

It doesn't take a lot of thinking to know these vets and their contracts aren't going to bring much if anything in July -- just look at past trade deadline results.  So why let that be such a big part of the equation?

[Pardon My Dinger]

Are you guys ready to trade Buxton yet? 

[spinowner]

I haven't read the whole thread yet, but I essentially agree with Seth. The purpose of this season should now be to optimize the development of each prospect. Do what is best for each individual. Some are best off in AA or below, some in AAA and some in the majors. Have them play the position that is projected for them in the future. (Put Sano at 3B, for example.) The W-L record of the teams in the organization is of little to no importance, other than making the minor league playoffs provides more games for the players to get in their work.

Edited May 19, 2016 by spinowner

[tobi0040]

I haven't read the whole thread yet, but I essentially agree with Seth. The purpose of this season should now be to optimize the development of each prospect. Do what is best for each individual. Some are best off in AA or below, some in AAA and some in the majors. Have them play the position that is projected for them in the future. (Put Sano at 3B, for example.) The W-L record of the teams in the organization is of little to no importance, other than making the minor league playoffs provides more games for the players to get in their work.

But they were in an August 1 timeframe in order to maximize trade value of 30+ year olds who have not been good in awhile

[NJTwin]

Buxton: in AAA you might get an at bat against a mlb caliber player 2-3 times a series. So if you consider his numbers mashing? who is he mashing against, the MLB caliber pitcher or the plethora of flotsam that graces many MILB pitching staffs.

 

Remember, Buxton was striking out close to 50% of the time when with the Twins this season. Bring him up again this early and all you might get is getting much closer to realizing Buxton's label which permeates his aura right now and that is unfortunately 'BUST'.

[Rosterman]

I like the idea that the Twins are stocking up the roster with some good trade candidates. Can't wait to see what Grossman and Mastro will bring in return. Time to add a couple more of the AAAA free agents to the roster.