Article: Nine Innings Of Notes

[Seth Stohs]

The Minnesota Twins are on a winning streak. On Sunday, they topped Cleveland for the second straight game to improve to 10-26. Remarkably, 36 games into the season, this is just the third Twins winning streak. After starting out 0-9, they won four straight games. They have had one other two-game winning streak. It has been a tough season.

 

That’s kind of a random note, and today I’m going to be pretty random in this article. Here are just several topics with the Twins (and a couple of minor league nuggets) for your Monday morning enjoyment.1st Inning

Brian Dozier was moved out of the leadoff spot. He moved into the #3 spot for one game, and most recently, he has been batting sixth. It’s certainly understandable when you look at his 2016 numbers. Overall, he’s hitting .218/.307/.363 (.670) with six doubles and four home runs. Those certainly are not the kind of numbers you want at the top of the order.

 

However, the timing of the move down in the lineup is interesting. Consider that over his last 15 games, he is hitting .263/.344/.421 (.765) with three doubles and two home runs. Again, these are not elite number, and they’re probably more suited for a spot in the six or seven spot of a lineup.

 

However, it’s also important to note that his overall numbers in 2014 and 2015 combined were .239/.326/.431 (.757). So, what he has done over the last two-plus weeks is essentially what he has done the last two years overall. We are just used to him having a big first half and then struggling. As fans, we need to hope that he just got off to a rough first three weeks and maybe now he’ll take off again for the rest of the season.

 

2nd Inning

It’s been nearly a week since Paul Molitor first inserted Joe Mauer’s name into the leadoff spot in the Twins lineup. In five games since then, Mauer is 4-19 with three walks and four strikeouts. He is hitting .211/.318/.211 (.529). He’s had two two-hit games and three zero-hit games. Of course, five games is far too small of a sample size to make any rash statements about.

 

Mauer in the leadoff spot makes so much sense if you believe that the job of the leadoff hitter is to get on base. His .405 on-base percentage this season is behind only Jose Altuve and Victor Martinez.

 

In my mind, Mauer is best suited to be a #2 hitter, but the Twins really don’t have another ideal #1 hitter, at least not yet. So, might as well stick with it for now.

 

3rd Inning

When I was in Ft. Myers for spring training, Michael Tonkin was hanging on to a roster spot by a thread. After one miserable outing, he sat at his locker just kind of staring. It was an ominous feeling, a feeling of just knowing that this young man is about to be told that the team that drafted him just can’t keep him around any more. The thread he was hanging on to was the fact that he was out of options. Blessed with a 95 mph fastball and a slider that can be devastating at times, Tonkin barely hung on to an Opening Day roster spot.

 

Since baseball is a funny game, Tonkin has pitched quite well since the season began. Early in the year, he did allow several inherited runners to score, but overall, he has been good. In 16 games (and 18.2 innings), he has a 1.93 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He has walked seven and struck out 21.

 

His roster spot seems much more secure at this point.

 

4th Inning

The catcher position was clearly a priority for Twins in the offseason. Kurt Suzuki would be back, but the Twins let Eric Fryer go via free agency and Chris Herrmann was traded to the Diamondbacks. Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver were both scheduled for Chattanooga, so the team went out to get some veterans.

 

Obviously to this point the Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy trade hasn’t worked out for either team, though at least Hicks is still in the big leagues. Of course, we need to remember that Murphy is younger than Garver or Turner. John Hicks was lost to the Tigers when the Twins chose to DFA him.

 

In a quiet move, the Twins signed veteran minor leaguer Juan Centeno to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. He had a strong showing in big league camp but was sent down to AAA to start the season. With Murphy’s struggles, Centeno was promoted. On Saturday afternoon, he hit his first big league home run, and on Sunday, he had a big two-run double. He looks very solid behind the plate. While he had played a combined 24 games in the big leagues over the past three years (Mets and Brewers) coming into the season, he is still just 26 years old.

 

Fun Fact: Centeno was drafted out of Antonio Luchetti school in Puerto Rico. Twins prospect, currently in Cedar Rapids, Nelson Molina was also drafted from that school.

 

5th Inning

Kurt Suzuki’s 2017 option for $6 million automatically vests with 485 plate appearances in 2016. With 22% of the season complete, Suzuki has just 77 plate appearances. At his current pace, he would end the season with approximately 346 plate appearances, well short of that option vesting.

 

This is important for two reasons. First, the Twins (should) want to not have to pay him $6 million in 2017. No other team will want to pay him $6 million in 2017. Because he is nowhere near on pace for that option to vest, a team in search of a catcher near the trade deadline will not be afraid to acquire Suzuki, even if it would be as a primary starter. Not that the Twins could get much for Suzuki, but a “C” level prospect is still something.

 

6th Inning

Chris Herrmann is hitting .259/.306/.586 (.892) with the Diamondbacks through 20 games played this year. His slugging percentage is boosted by four home runs. On Sunday, he started in centerfield for the Diamondbacks, a position he had not played in a game since playing in Ft. Myers in 2010.

 

Herrmann hit two home runs for Arizona in a game just over a week ago. That’s pretty impressive, but check out the weekend another former Twins player, Danny Valencia, had for Oakland. On Friday night, he hit two home runs. On Sunday, his third home run of the game gave the A’s the win. Five home runs over the course of three games would classify as “pretty good,” I’d say.

 

7th Inning

Of course, Chris Herrmann’s time with the Twins had kind of run its course. Clearly Paul Molitor had little confidence in him behind the plate or in the outfield. Herrmann was out of options and certainly not guaranteed a roster spot with the Twins. Yet somehow, Terry Ryan was able to trade him to Arizona and get OF/1B Daniel Palka in return.

 

While Palka was a decent prospect with the Diamondbacks, he is not considered a big prospect by most. However, last year in the California League, Palka hit .280/.352/.532 (.885) with 36 doubles, 29 homers, 90 RBI and 24 stolen bases.

 

Palka impressed this spring when, just invited to dress with the big league club, he DHd in one game and hit two home runs. The next day, he hit another. At this still-early stage of the season, Palka is hitting .297/.389/.508 (.897) with nine doubles and a Twins system-leading six home runs and 23 RBI.

 

His .897 OPS is third in the system behind only Cedar Rapids’ catcher AJ Murray (.937) and outfielder LaMonte Wade (.923). Palka was the Twins choice for Minor League Hitter of the Month in April (Twins Daily chose Wade).

 

8th Inning

Stephen Gonsalves was the Minor League Pitcher of the Month by the Twins and Twins Daily’s Starting Pitcher of the Month. With another win on Sunday for Ft. Myers, he is now 5-1 with a 1.27 ERA on the year.

 

But even that doesn’t totally show how dominant that Gonsalves has been this year. Consider this. He was the Miracle’s Opening Night starting pitcher. In the first inning of that game, he gave up a three-run home run. Since that home run, he has thrown 42 more innings and given up just THREE more runs. That is a 0.64 ERA.

 

Overall in his 42.2 innings (7 starts), he has a 0.84 WHIP and has struck out 38 batters (8.0 K/9). He was promoted to the Miracle after nine starts in Cedar Rapids in 2015. Overall, he has made 22 starts for the Miracle and is 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA.

 

Gonsalves was the Twins fourth-round pick out of high school in San Diego in 2013. The Twins top pick that year, also 21 years old, was Kohl Stewart. He spent all of 2015 in Ft. Myers but wisely was kept at the level to start this season. He has responded by going 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 through his first six starts. He is set to make his seventh start for the Miracle this season tonight.

 

22-year-old Felix Jorge has also made six starts for the Miracle. He is 2-3 but has a 1.80 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. He has struck out 7.6 per nine. Tyler Jay (22), last year’s top pick who is transitioning to starting, had one clunker. Despite that, he’s 3-2 with a 3.03, a 1.19 WHIP, and an 8.3 K/9 rate. Despite just returning from Tommy John surgery last summer, Randy Rosario (22) was added to the Twins 40-man roster this past offseason. He is currently 3-2 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.

 

An interesting note, the average age of the Ft. Myers pitchers is 22.9. The average age of the Cedar Rapids pitchers is 23.1.

 

9th Inning

Byron Buxton has played in 20 games in Rochester now this season. He is hitting .301/.356/.494 (.850) with five doubles, a triple and three home runs. Very solid numbers, but that includes the very slow start he had with the Red Wings.

 

In his past 13 games, he is hitting .353/.411/.588 (.999) with three doubles and three home runs. He also has five walks to go with ten strikeouts. That is a 17.8% strikeout rate. Through his first seven games with the Red Wings, he had 11 strikeouts in 34 plate appearances, a 32.4% rate. And in his 15 games with the Twins before the demotion, 24 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances, a 49.0% rate.

 

So, the question is often asked, when should the Twins call up Byron Buxton. We all want to see him in the big leagues. We’ve all seen enough of Danny Santana in center field to fully appreciate just how great Buxton’s defense is. However, there should be no rush whatsoever to call Buxton back up. He is working now with a leg kick and getting more motion (and power) into his swing while at the same time putting in the effort to take very quality at-bats and learn the strike zone and see those breaking pitches. Though it may be hard, with the Twins season not exactly going as planned, the should be in no hurry to bring him back.

 

I’ve always said that even if it’s not as good for the Twins to have Buxton in AAA, it’s worth it to do what is best for Buxton in the long term because that will be what is best for the Twins too.

 

The Red Wings didn’t play on Sunday. Buxton left the game on Saturday with back spasms. With the cold weather in Rochester, he probably would not have played on Sunday anyway. The Red Wings took the bus to Charlotte to start a series. It will be interesting to see if Buxton is in the lineup after the long bus ride or if they give him a few more games. It’s important for him to be healthy because it is important for him to play.

There you have it, Nine Innings of Notes. Feel free to discuss any of the above and add more fun topics to the conversation.

 

Click here to view the article

[HitInAPinch]

A Molina that's not a catcher?  Man, did I lose interest quickly   :-)

 

The leg kick they're working on with Buxton isn't about hitting for power at all.  It's timing.  There's a couple articles in the Strib that mentions him today.  Sounds like he won't be back anytime soon.  Good.

 

The concerns about health are still there [pulled for back spasms recently].

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-in-no-rush-to-bring-buxton-back-up/379598261/

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-postgame-buxton-heating-up-but-twins-haven-t-talked-about-a-promotion/379591531/

[Tommygun921]

I'm definitely curious why Palka isn't considered more of a prospect with those offensive numbers. Is it because he lacks defensive upside? To many K's?

 

Also would there ever be a time in the minors where a manager may talk to his opposition before the game and give them a scouting report on a guy like Buxton? Like that he really struggles with breaking pitches and/or tends to chase just off the plate.

[DocBauer]

Good for Herrmann. He was a guy I always had high hopes for. No telling how good he could have been, but I always thought he was hurt by riding that Rochester - Twins train too often.

 

There needs to be some serious pitching prospect promotions come June 1st, if not earlier.

[markos]

 

I'm definitely curious why Palka isn't considered more of a prospect with those offensive numbers. Is it because he lacks defensive upside? To many K's?

More or less. From Sickels this past offseason: 

"Palka was drafted by Arizona in the third round in 2013 out of Georgia Tech. He was traded to the Twins this past winter for catcher Chris Herrmann. Scouts have always respected Palka’s power but worried that his swing would be too long to work properly against advanced pitching. His strikeout rate is indeed high but so far the power has been enough to make him highly productive. This may or may not remain true in Double-A and higher, with production against left-handed pitching a particular question (.962 OPS vs. right-handers last year, but just .637 against lefties). Despite his size he is reasonably mobile, an effective baserunner and an adequate defender at either outfield corner as well as first base. I rather like Palka as a power-oriented role player. Grade C+."

[Platoon]

Tonkin spent several "opportunities" with the Twins looking over his shoulder. I am sure in his mind, it was either spotless performances, or the next flight to Rochester. That's a tough way to play. Probably far more pressure than pitching with the bases loaded, up one in the ninth for a regular. Young players with visible talent need to feel they will get a legitimate amount of time to show where abilities, not a one, done, and the TSA line!

[gunnarthor]

I agree that the Twins should keep Buxton down for at least another month.  Let him dominate the level for a while.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Herrman could never really hit, so I suspect his current OPS is more in the SSS category.  If he had, he'd still be in MN.

[luckylager]

Maybe I missed something, but what happened to Alex Meyer? Did he ever report back to Rochester after his demotion? 

[Old Twins Cap]

Meyer is with Dick Cheney at an undisclosed location.  And also in the FBI secret identity program. 

 

He is slated to come back as 6' 9" starting MLB pitcher with a 95 mph heater and a nasty curve ball, that he throws for strikes.

 

You know, build some value so he can be traded for a backup CF.

[jimbo92107]

Leave Buxton in AAA until the all-star break. Plate discipline, bunting, and better lead-off technique on base. He doesn't even do a couple skips on each pitch. He could put so much more pressure on pitchers if he actually learned how to steal bases.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe I missed something, but what happened to Alex Meyer? Did he ever report back to Rochester after his demotion? 

Yes, but he had some shoulder fatigue in a bullpen session, so he has yet to appear in a game for them.  He's expected to start some time this week, though (their probable starters are all TBD beginning Tuesday).  Personally, barring a return to the rotation for Trevor May, I'd love to see Meyer start in place of Hughes tomorrow night. Hughes would probably be more useful out of the pen than Pat Dean too.

[ashbury]

The leg kick they're working on with Buxton isn't about hitting for power at all.  It's timing.  There's a couple articles in the Strib that mentions him today.  Sounds like he won't be back anytime soon.  Good.

Best news I've heard in a while. My hope was that he wasn't in AAA simply to get more experience there, but to reconstruct his swing and maybe even the entire approach at the plate, out of the glare of the major league environment. That isn't something that can be mastered overnight ("OK coach, good, got it, thanks!") so a return to Minneapolis in July is soon enough to not worry me.

 

I saw him in Pawtucket the other day, but am not nearly an astute enough scout to notice a change in his leg kick or whatever. I am exactly astute enough to notice and appreciate the ball leaving the yard on the second pitch of the game, though.

 

Bottom line, stop biting on the sliders in the dirt, stop flailing at pitches too far outside, stop swinging through strikes in the zone. All interconnected of course (which is why I don't think it's an exaggeration to view it as a reconstruct), but it's still a lot to work on.

[luckylager]

 

Yes, but he had some shoulder fatigue in a bullpen session, so he has yet to appear in a game for them.  He's expected to start some time this week, though (their probable starters are all TBD beginning Tuesday).  Personally, barring a return to the rotation for Trevor May, I'd love to see Meyer start in place of Hughes tomorrow night. Hughes would probably be more useful out of the pen than Pat Dean too.

Thank you! I would love to see him get a start or two in place of Hughes too. Nothing to lose at this point.

[DocBauer]

 

Yes, but he had some shoulder fatigue in a bullpen session, so he has yet to appear in a game for them.  He's expected to start some time this week, though (their probable starters are all TBD beginning Tuesday).  Personally, barring a return to the rotation for Trevor May, I'd love to see Meyer start in place of Hughes tomorrow night. Hughes would probably be more useful out of the pen than Pat Dean too.

As would I. However, missing a couple days with the shoulder fatigue and the way he sat on the bench in Minnesota before getting a short night in his start, (after the Twins announced there was no pitch limit on him), I'd rather see him get a few starts in Rochester and get in a groove again and then come up.

[Circus Boy]

We currently have the longest winning streak among teams in the AL Central. So we have that going for us.

[ashbury]

We currently have the longest winning streak among teams in the AL Central. So we have that going for us.

Which is nice.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

We currently have the longest winning streak among teams in the AL Central. So we have that going for us.

Unsustainable.

[Pitz]

 

Unsustainable.

I'm going to need some of those new fangled sabermetric thingies to back up your position.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As would I. However, missing a couple days with the shoulder fatigue and the way he sat on the bench in Minnesota before getting a short night in his start, (after the Twins announced there was no pitch limit on him), I'd rather see him get a few starts in Rochester and get in a groove again and then come up.

The Twins obviously didn't care about what kind of groove Meyer was in for his first start, so why should they now?  I guess I could give him one more Rochester tune-up, but if he's healthy enough to pitch, there's pretty much nothing that he or Hughes could do in one start that would change my mind about who should take the next turn.

[Mike Sixel]

Nice notes, Seth.

[Dantes929]

Duffey has pitched more against the Indians than any other team and they have obviously figured out that he is just a two pitch guy.    I wonder how much more of a shutout he would have had if he just had a third pitch.    Just like last year I feel like the Twins have a pretty good shot when Santana or Duffey start.     Next level of confidence is in Berrios mainly because Gibson hasn't pitched much.   Would still prefer Milone to NOlasco or maybe even Hughes.       .

[Circus Boy]

 

Unsustainable.

 

SSS.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Best news I've heard in a while. My hope was that he wasn't in AAA simply to get more experience there, but to reconstruct his swing and maybe even the entire approach at the plate, out of the glare of the major league environment. That isn't something that can be mastered overnight ("OK coach, good, got it, thanks!") so a return to Minneapolis in July is soon enough to not worry me.

 

I saw him in Pawtucket the other day, but am not nearly an astute enough scout to notice a change in his leg kick or whatever. I am exactly astute enough to notice and appreciate the ball leaving the yard on the second pitch of the game, though.

 

Bottom line, stop biting on the sliders in the dirt, stop flailing at pitches too far outside, stop swinging through strikes in the zone. All interconnected of course (which is why I don't think it's an exaggeration to view it as a reconstruct), but it's still a lot to work on.

That leg kick / timing mechanism should lessen Buxton's swinging at those low - outside pitches.

[twinssouth]

Great job Seth, loved the report. Hope you are right Spycake about Meyer's shoulder fatigue and possibly getting back into the rotation.

[twinssouth]

Gonsalves needs to move up to AA

[hybridbear]

How does Buxton's demotion to AAA affect his service time clock? I'm not very familiar with those rules...

 

Does anyone else find the C names confusing? Between John Ryan Murphy, John Hicks & Aaron Hicks we have a funny duplication of names...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How does Buxton's demotion to AAA affect his service time clock? I'm not very familiar with those rules...

Buxton had 113 days service time entering the season, and got about 22 more before his demotion.  So, roughly 135 days.

 

A full season of service time is defined as 172 days.

 

So we would have to keep him under ~37 days on the MLB roster for the rest of this season in order to gain an extra year of team control (assuming he isn't demoted much in 2017 or beyond).  So if we want him to finish the season up here in September, we pretty much couldn't call him up before August 27th or so if we want that extra year of control.  It might be difficult to keep him down that long.

 

At his present level of 135 days service, he's right around the threshold for Super 2 status, meaning even if doesn't spend another day in MLB this year, he may be eligible for the first of 4 arbitration awards after the 2018 season.