Article: Mock Draft v. 1.0

[nytwinsfan]

 

You don't take best catcher available because it would be a huge reach. Collins isn't a catcher. He could catch, but not something you want him to do regularly. I had two scouts yesterday tell me he's not a catcher, one saying best case is Vogt. Go down the list and you're not guaranteed to get a guy that sticks until you get to Cooper Johnson... and he's a repeat of Stuart Turner. You can't do that at 15. Later? Sure. Considering how bad the team is now, you can have your pick of the lot in 2017. JJ Schwarz is the guy. Stick behind the plate and be an able average hitter. Team will have their choices of Murphy, Turner, Garver, Centeno next year. It ain't pretty but it's not so bad that you reach at 15.

Even if not "guaranteed," this guys sure thinks Rortvedt has a good chance to stick, and he's much higher than Johnson. He wouldn't be one to use the pick at 15 on, but he might be at 52.

 

https://baseballdraftreport.com/tag/ben-rortvedt/

 

 

 

Ben Rortvedt has first round catcher tools; his defensive upside isn’t quite as high as Cooper Johnson’s – it’s close, but Johnson is in a league of his own – but his offensive edge more than makes up the difference. I’d say Rortvedt is the best bet of this group to be first off the board.

 

Edited May 12, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks for the awesome information.

[HitInAPinch]

Question: I haven't really followed the MLB draft.  Is it now OK to trade MiLB draft picks?  If so, can you package them with MLB / MiLB players?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Question: I haven't really followed the MLB draft.  Is it now OK to trade MiLB draft picks?  If so, can you package them with MLB / MiLB players?

 

You can trade competitive balance picks, but no other picks. Stupid.

[HitInAPinch]

 

You can trade competitive balance picks, but no other picks. Stupid.

 

That's what I was afraid of.  If you can't use both draft picks and MLB players to make trades, it really stacks everything in favor of the teams that have the money to literally buy entire teams.

 

er, not that I'm a commie or anything  

Edited May 12, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Even if not "guaranteed," this guys sure thinks Rortvedt has a good chance to stick, and he's much higher than Johnson. He wouldn't be one to use the pick at 15 on, but he might be at 52.

 

https://baseballdraftreport.com/tag/ben-rortvedt/

 

All which is fine, but far from taking "best catcher available" at 15. Both of those guys and others mentioned are second round talents.

[nytwinsfan]

 

All which is fine, but far from taking "best catcher available" at 15. Both of those guys and others mentioned are second round talents.

Totally agree. Just saying there are other quality catcher options for 2nd and comp round besides Cooper.

Edited May 12, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[tobi0040]

 

That's what I was afraid of.  If you can't use both draft picks and MLB players to make trades, it really stacks everything in favor of the teams that have the money to literally buy entire teams.

 

er, not that I'm a commie or anything  

 

I almost think it is the opposite.  If top draft picks could be traded I think it would give Boras more leverage. He could say to the Nationals, Harper is not signing with you and will only sign with New York, Boston, etc.  Then the agent would be brokering deals in order to get his guys more money. 

 

Even with a slot penalty, a team like the Yankees could justify adding a real top talent and giving up a late first round pick the next year. 

[d-mac]

Where the Twins are picking this year, I'd prefer to go with a college bat in the 1st round. Maybe bank some money- then throw a bunch of cash at high upside HS players with their next 4 picks. It'd be hard for me not to pick Will Craig (Dude can hit AND can draw a walk, figure out his position later) at 15. Go with Rortvedt at 56, if he's there or Gavin Lux. Then HS arms after that. I'd stay away from college pitching like the plague this year. 

[tobi0040]

 

Where the Twins are picking this year, I'd prefer to go with a college bat in the 1st round. Maybe bank some money- then throw a bunch of cash at high upside HS players with their next 4 picks. It'd be hard for me not to pick Will Craig (Dude can hit AND can draw a walk, figure out his position later) at 15. Go with Rortvedt at 56, if he's there or Gavin Lux. Then HS arms after that. I'd stay away from college pitching like the plague this year. 

 

Sounds like Craig is a 1B/DH that could arrive quick.  It would come down to whether or not he could play a corner spot to me.  He is 35 pounds lighter and almost the same age as Sano.  So probably has a better shot.

[d-mac]

 

Totally agree. Just saying there are other quality catcher options for 2nd and comp round besides Cooper.

 

I think there are plenty of good catchers that'll be appropriate at 56. Okey, Rorvedt, Murphy, Cumberland. I personally don't like all glove, no hit catchers (pitch framing and selection are really the only traits that matter to me as a catcher), so I'd avoid Johnson and Rogers. 

[d-mac]

 

Sounds like Craig is a 1B/DH that could arrive quick.  It would come down to whether or not he could play a corner spot to me.  He is 35 pounds lighter and almost the same age as Sano.  So probably has a better shot.

 

He could also be traded too, teams are always looking to add bats. 

[Hrbowski]

We don't need to take a catcher on day one. Chris Devito is a similar player to Collins, but you should be able to grab him on day two. If you take a catcher on day one they should only take him if they absolutely believe that he will stick behind the plate, such as Sean Murphy or Jake Rogers.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Where the Twins are picking this year, I'd prefer to go with a college bat in the 1st round. Maybe bank some money- then throw a bunch of cash at high upside HS players with their next 4 picks. It'd be hard for me not to pick Will Craig (Dude can hit AND can draw a walk, figure out his position later) at 15. Go with Rortvedt at 56, if he's there or Gavin Lux. Then HS arms after that. I'd stay away from college pitching like the plague this year.

 

I talked to one scout yesterday that suggested that a really good pitcher could fall to #15 simply because there are so few hitters in this class that teams could start reaching for them early. I would bet a large chunk of money that the best player available - the way the Twins usually draft - will be a pitcher and likely a prep one.

[shs_59]

I'm REALLY starting to warm up to the idea of Virginia Catcher   Matt "Toby" Thaiss

 

He looks like KYLE F'n Schwarber

Obviously this only works if Thaiss sticks at catcher!  (as Jeremy pointed out earlier that may not be the case.

-a mini version of the Schwar machine)

 

If Whitley , Collins , and Senzel are all off the board (along with Dakota Hudson obviously)

 

Take Matt Thaiss!

Edited May 12, 2016 by shs_59

[tobi0040]

 

I talked to one scout yesterday that suggested that a really good pitcher could fall to #15 simply because there are so few hitters in this class that teams could start reaching for them early. I would bet a large chunk of money that the best player available - the way the Twins usually draft - will be a pitcher and likely a prep one.

 

I understand BPA.  But these are facts:

 

Catcher has been a black hole and we have literally no talent in our system there because we

 

1) Have not invested in the position with first round picks, larger dollar international signings, or free agent signings. 

 

and

 

2) Have shown no ability to draft them later and develop them into league average catchers.

 

So what if the next five drafts don't have a catcher as the BPA for the Twins?  Do we just field a .500 OPS catcher for the next decade?  And we can talk about the JJ guy next year.  But we may slip to #5 and not have a chance at him.  And we can't rule out our scouts falling head over heals for another toolsy prep SS or CF

 

 

 

Edited May 12, 2016 by tobi0040

[Lonestar]

 

With the expected deals being cut at the top, is there  a chance a projected top-10 player falls to the Twins at 15? My fear is the Twins would take said player and run into a contract hassle - the player (and his agent) balk at the Twins' offer because they feel he should have gone higher. 

 

My hope is the Twins brass would know these demands ahead of time so that they could pass on the guy for someone else.

Mr. Pint, you were considered by some to be the best RHSP in this draft but you have fallen to us (the Twins) at number #15.  You tell us you have a deal with the Padres for $5M.  We [have added our entire 5% allowance over our pool amount ($399,860) to our slot ($2,817,100) to] come up with our offer of $3,216,960.  You might think you are leaving $1.8M on the table.  Really you have a choice between signing with us or going to LSU or going to a junior college and hope you don't turn into Matt Harrington or Kyle Funkhouser .  And if you don't sign with us, we get the #16 pick next year in a deeper draft plus our #2 and we'll have more draft pool money than we know what to do with.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I understand BPA.  But these are facts:

 

Catcher has been a black hole and we have literally no talent in our system there because we

 

1) Have not invested in the position with first round picks, larger dollar international signings, or free agent signings. 

 

and

 

2) Have shown no ability to draft them later and develop them into league average catchers.

 

So what if the next five drafts don't have a catcher as the BPA for the Twins?  Do we just field a .500 OPS catcher for the next decade?  And we can talk about the JJ guy next year.  But we may slip to #5 and not have a chance at him.  And we can't rule out our scouts falling head over heals for another toolsy prep SS or CF

 

2015: Took Jay at #6. Next catcher to be taken: Tyler Stephenson at #11, batting .130 with a .400 OPS in low-A ball.

 

2014; Took Gordon at #5. Next catcher to be taken: Max Pentecost at #11, had shoulder surgery, missed 2015, had another shoulder surgery, might play first base this year after he returns for another shoulder surgery.

 

2013: Took Stewart at #4. Next catcher to be taken: Reese McGuire at #14. At one point there was a rumor that the Twins were going to cut a deal with McGuire and people were uberp*ssed on these boards. Anyway, he's batting .227 at AA and has dropped out of Top 100s.

 

2012: Took Buxton at #2. Next catcher to be taken: Mike Zunino at #3. Zunino, a sure thing, has a sub-.200 average in over 1000 big league plate appearances.

 

2011: Took Michael at #30. Next catcher to be taken: Brett Austin at #45. Didn't sign, went to NC State... became a 4th round pick three years later. He's a .215 lifetime hitter in the minors.

 

2010: Took Wimmers at #21. Next catcher to be taken: Kellin Deglan, who's batting .172 in AA. Next catcher taken after that: Justin O'Connor, who I preferred to Deglan, at #31. O'Connor is batting .231 at AA.

 

Wouldn't you take Turner and Garver over any of those guys? The Twins have invested a first-round pick in a catcher, when they traded Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy, who was a 2nd round pick himself. In the history of the draft, there are only a dozen or so first-round catchers (who remained at catcher for any extended period of time) who produced a career bWAR over 10. So, please, don't do it... especially when no one merits being picked that high.

 

The Twins invested decent-sized bonuses in a few international guys within the last few years: Rainis Silva, Robert Molina and Darling Cuesto... of course they'll take a while to pan out. They also draft Brian Navarreto, who was a Top 100 prospect but fell because of some makeup issues (starting a bench-clearing brawl). 

 

Of course, that all happened post-Mauer move and not having a backup plan is indefensible. 

 

So it's not that they haven't made investments, they just haven't made wise investments - which you don't like - but now you're wanting them to compound that by reaching for a guy that - statistics show - isn't likely to pan out.

 

I had a solution to this two years ago...

 

7/27/14 @jeremynygaard: Has Francisco Cervelli even played enough to know if he could be a starting catcher full-time?

 

7/31/14 @jeremynygaard: @tlschwerz I'll trade Hammer and a low-level prospect for Cervelli.

 

That would make this all easier wouldn't it.

 

[Hrbowski]

 

The Twins invested decent-sized bonuses in a few international guys within the last few years: Rainis Silva, Robert Molina and Darling Cuesto... of course they'll take a while to pan out. They also draft Brian Navarreto, who was a Top 100 prospect but fell because of some makeup issues (starting a bench-clearing brawl). 

All of those guys have real potential behind the plate. It isn't like the Twins will be able to fix the current catching situation by taking a catcher on day one, and you have just as high of a chance of Murphy or Turner becoming an above average catcher as your pick becoming one.

[Hrbowski]

Hey guys, just remember that Kurt Suzuki was the #2 college catching prospect in the 2004 MLB draft, behind only Landon Powell. LOL.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I'm REALLY starting to warm up to the idea of Virginia Catcher   Matt "Toby" Thaiss

 

He looks like KYLE F'n Schwarber

Obviously this only works if Thaiss sticks at catcher!  (as Jeremy pointed out earlier that may not be the case.

-a mini version of the Schwar machine)

 

If Whitley , Collins , and Senzel are all off the board (along with Dakota Hudson obviously)

 

Take Matt Thaiss!

 

I've been digging on Thaiss. Doesn't sound like he's in the mix at #15 as of now. But that could change.

[tobi0040]

 

2015: Took Jay at #6. Next catcher to be taken: Tyler Stephenson at #11, batting .130 with a .400 OPS in low-A ball.

 

2014; Took Gordon at #5. Next catcher to be taken: Max Pentecost at #11, had shoulder surgery, missed 2015, had another shoulder surgery, might play first base this year after he returns for another shoulder surgery.

 

2013: Took Stewart at #4. Next catcher to be taken: Reese McGuire at #14. At one point there was a rumor that the Twins were going to cut a deal with McGuire and people were uberp*ssed on these boards. Anyway, he's batting .227 at AA and has dropped out of Top 100s.

 

2012: Took Buxton at #2. Next catcher to be taken: Mike Zunino at #3. Zunino, a sure thing, has a sub-.200 average in over 1000 big league plate appearances.

 

2011: Took Michael at #30. Next catcher to be taken: Brett Austin at #45. Didn't sign, went to NC State... became a 4th round pick three years later. He's a .215 lifetime hitter in the minors.

 

2010: Took Wimmers at #21. Next catcher to be taken: Kellin Deglan, who's batting .172 in AA. Next catcher taken after that: Justin O'Connor, who I preferred to Deglan, at #31. O'Connor is batting .231 at AA.

 

Wouldn't you take Turner and Garver over any of those guys? The Twins have invested a first-round pick in a catcher, when they traded Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy, who was a 2nd round pick himself. In the history of the draft, there are only a dozen or so first-round catchers (who remained at catcher for any extended period of time) who produced a career bWAR over 10. So, please, don't do it... especially when no one merits being picked that high.

 

The Twins invested decent-sized bonuses in a few international guys within the last few years: Rainis Silva, Robert Molina and Darling Cuesto... of course they'll take a while to pan out. They also draft Brian Navarreto, who was a Top 100 prospect but fell because of some makeup issues (starting a bench-clearing brawl). 

 

Of course, that all happened post-Mauer move and not having a backup plan is indefensible. 

 

So it's not that they haven't made investments, they just haven't made wise investments - which you don't like - but now you're wanting them to compound that by reaching for a guy that - statistics show - isn't likely to pan out.

 

I had a solution to this two years ago...

 

7/27/14 @jeremynygaard: Has Francisco Cervelli even played enough to know if he could be a starting catcher full-time?

 

7/31/14 @jeremynygaard: @tlschwerz I'll trade Hammer and a low-level prospect for Cervelli.

 

That would make this all easier wouldn't it.

 

Cuesto and Silva signed for $175k and $200k each. I can't find Molina's.  But those numbers are equivalent to the draft slot for a 7th round pick in the draft.

 

We can play Monday morning QB on each pick.  But it just seems like we have not made a significant investment in the catcher spot in 15 years.  That seems like a lack of strategy to me.   The biggest thing we did was tried salvaging the value of Hicks by flipping him for a career .620 OPS, 25 year old catcher.

 

It is one thing to have a plan and see it fail.  It is another not to have a plan at all.

[Hrbowski]

Thaiss reminds me of a Jeff Keppinger type bat. Good contact hitter, but doesn't have much power, not to mention he isn't a good defender and could end up moving to first.

[Hrbowski]

 

Cuesto and Silva signed for $175k and $200k each. I can't find Molina's.  But those numbers are equivalent to the draft slot for a 7th round pick in the draft.

 

We can play Monday morning QB on each pick.  But it just seems like we have not made a significant investment in the catcher spot in 15 years.  That seems like a lack of strategy to me.   The biggest thing we did was tried salvaging the value of Hicks by flipping him for a career .620 OPS, 25 year old catcher.

 

It is one thing to have a plan and see it fail.  It is another not to have a plan at all.

No lack of strategy. They have brought in good catchers into the organization, and just remember that Lucroy, Molina, McCann, and Perez were not highly regarded prospects during their amateur days.

[howieramone2]

 

Cuesto and Silva signed for $175k and $200k each. I can't find Molina's.  But those numbers are equivalent to the draft slot for a 7th round pick in the draft.

 

We can play Monday morning QB on each pick.  But it just seems like we have not made a significant investment in the catcher spot in 15 years.  That seems like a lack of strategy to me.   The biggest thing we did was tried salvaging the value of Hicks by flipping him for a career .620 OPS, 25 year old catcher.

 

It is one thing to have a plan and see it fail.  It is another not to have a plan at all.

Who was the last Twins starting catcher who wasn't an All-Star sometime in their career? Giving up on Murphy this early is silly.

[Hrbowski]

 

Who was the last Twins starting catcher who wasn't an All-Star sometime in their career? Giving up on Murphy this early is silly.

That must be Greg Myers?

[tobi0040]

 

No lack of strategy. They have brought in good catchers into the organization, and just remember that Lucroy, Molina, McCann, and Perez were not highly regarded prospects during their amateur days.

 

The last first round pick was Mauer 15 years ago.  The last second rounder was Rams in 2007.   In seven of the last eight drafts we did not take a catcher in rounds 1-4 (none before the 9th round in half of them).

 

Kurt Suzuki was likely the biggest free agent catcher signed in franchise history.

 

And we can't find a recent example of an international signee over $200k.

 

I stand by my statement. We have clearly neglected this position.  A good number of these guys were likely taken because you need two at every level

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Cuesto and Silva signed for $175k and $200k each. I can't find Molina's.  But those numbers are equivalent to the draft slot for a 7th round pick in the draft.

 

Molina signed for $300k.

 

Comparing the bonuses to the draft pool isn't exactly apples and oranges, but I'll agree with your point that the team hasn't made a significant investment in the position in along time.

 

I just don't think this draft is the place to start.

[tobi0040]

 

Molina signed for $300k. Comparing the bonuses to the draft pool isn't exactly apples and oranges, but I'll agree with your point that the team hasn't made a significant investment in the position in along time. I just don't think this draft is the place to start.

 

That is fair.  Even a catcher at 56 it sounds like would not be bad and represent an improvement

[gunnarthor]

Just looking at mlb.com's list does suggest that the Twins could pretty easily draft a catcher in the first 3 rounds.  I believe they have five picks inside the top 95.  But it also looks like there might be a number of potential high school arms that they could focus on instead.  Or they could nab another Trey Cabbage like kid - I think Cole Stobbe would be a fun pick.

 

I'm still interested in some of the guys whose stock is dropping.  Coming into the season, Bobby Dalbec was a top 20 guy.  College bat who had a bad season and might not be able to stay at third.  But he has good power and a strong arm.  Might be a fun lottery ticket.  And, of course, Alec Hanson.