Article: Mock Draft v. 1.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The draft is less than a month away and, at this point, nothing is very clear. There have been a number of injuries to significant players and fringe first-rounders alike - both major injuries and little nagging injuries that make it hard for teams to get a read on players.

 

So what’s it going to boil down to? Sometimes it’s the last impression that’s the strongest. Other times it’s a player meeting a team’s offer in the days leading up to the draft. Obviously neither of those things have happened yet.There is some feeling around the league that this year’s draft sees an unprecedented number of pre-draft deals. But that’s something I hear every year. Some teams - like the Astros - have gotten really good at playing the draft. You don’t think Daz Cameron dropped to them at 37 by pure happenstance do you? They had it worked out before. They offered him $4 million and he (and his advisor) knew that if he went to anyone else in the first round, that he wasn’t getting $4 million. So they threw out an absurd demand and no one touched him.

 

Expect more of the same this year with the Phillies, Reds, Braves and Padres in a great position to throw their weight around. What those teams, and possibly a couple of others, can do is offer money to players expected to go in the mid- to late-teens that they wouldn’t get if they went in the mid- to late-teens. History suggests the most volatile group of draft-eligible players are high school pitchers, so it’s likely we see some of those guys drop.

 

Here’s my first shot at a mock draft:

• PHILLIES - Jason Groome, LHP, New Jersey HS. Groome’s stock took a slight hit when he was ruled ineligible after transferring back home from IMG Academy in Florida. For now, I have Groome as the guy taking the Phillies offer of $6 million and banking another $3 million. My gut tells me that by the time the draft rolls around, it’s going to be Kyle Lewis hearing his name called first and the Phillies spending their savings on a high school pitcher at 42. (NOTE: Jayson Stark tweeted yesterday afternoon that there are rumblings that the Phillies may be turning their attention to Kyle Lewis. Since I had already completed my mock, I didn’t think I should change it.)
• REDS - Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. I don’t have any doubt that the Reds would take Lewis at this point if he’s available. But sometimes arms stare you in the face and you can’t pass on them. The Reds have picks 35 and 43 as well, so they’ll have an opportunity to cut a deal and replenish their system.
• BRAVES - Riley Pint, RHP, Kansas HS. I don’t love this pick for the Braves, but they’ve been stockpiling arms over the last couple of years and Pint would add another dynamic arm to the system.
• ROCKIES - A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida. Puk could be the first name off the board, but if teams are looking to make deals, all bets are off.
• BREWERS - Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State. The Brewers have had some very strong drafts in the last few years and add the best arm available to kick off their picks this year.
• A’S - Mickey Moniak, OF, California HS. There’s been some steam that there could be a deal here. I’d be surprised if there was one in place already, but it makes sense.
• MARLINS - Delvin Perez, SS, Puerto Rico HS. Unfairly compared to Carlos Correa, Perez was one of the first players I heard about as a first-rounder in this draft (probably about 16 months ago). The Marlins, who should have taken Carlos Rodon instead of Tyler Kolek for various reasons, have plenty of reasons to make Perez their guy.
• PADRES - Matt Manning, RHP, California HS. Whoever goes here, he will be the first of three solid picks. Look for the Padres to skim here to assure getting three really good players in the first round.
• TIGERS - Scott Senzel, 3B, Tennessee. Not a perfect fit, but the Tigers lineup isn’t getting any younger.
• WHITE SOX - Corey Ray, OF, Louisville. This would fit their recent trend of drafting more developed players.
• MARINERS - Zack Collins, C, Miami. Nothing more than a hunch really. (And hoping he’ll be gone before the Twins have a chance to draft a future first baseman.)
• RED SOX - Blake Rutherford, OF, California HS. Though the Red Sox have an abundance of outfield depth, Rutherford provides value as the best player available.
• RAYS - Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama HS. A Vandy commit with Boras as his rep, Garrett could be a player who drops due to signability (to a team that makes extra room). For now I have him going here. If the Twins have a shot at him - and believe they can sign him - they would pull the trigger.
• INDIANS - Josh Lowe, 3B, Georgia HS. Lowe would look great in the Twins system, but the Indians have taken a number of players that I’ve had that same feeling about it. So I project they’ll do the same.
• TWINS - Forrest Whitley, RHP, Texas HS. There were no up-the-middle prospects worth taking at fifteen, so it mostly came down to high-ceiling prep pitchers. The Twins had always been known for taking safe college arms, but with the exception of Kyle Gibson, that strategy hasn’t really panned out. The prep pitchers, however, have made some progress, led by the filthiness of Jose Berrios, the emergence of Stephen Gonsalves and the rejuvenation of Kohl Stewart. (I don’t think the Twins would “do-over” the Tyler Jay pick, but I think they got caught up in their own success and took a player who had the potential to make a big impact.) Whitley is a big-bodied prep with room to grow and has the ceiling to be an impactful front-of-the-rotation starter.

​One name that I wouldn’t sleep on here is Zack Burdi. It has nothing to do with big brother Nick. There’s some belief that Zack has the tools to make the transition into a successful starter with a fastball/slider/changeup mix. The Twins have made that transition successfully with Tyler Duffey and have recently been adding power arms as well. Little Burdi fits the mold.

 

There are some names that probably should be included, but are not. For example, Ian Anderson, Matt Manning and Alex Kirilloff are all legitimate Top 15 talents. But as I mentioned in the intro, teams are going to have money to throw around. If I were to continue this particular mock, I would have Manning dropping to the Padres at 24, Anderson dropping to the Reds at 35 and Kirilloff sliding to the Phillies at 42. Each of these three players would be in line to make significantly more than if they were drafted by the Twins at 15 (or another team in that vicinity.)

 

There’s still a lot of time for things to change and even the most plugged-in people in the country would tell you - at this point - it’s a crapshoot.

Hope you enjoyed, fire away!

 

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[nytwinsfan]

I think you mean Nick Senzel, not Scott, no?

 

Also, on the substance, why not lefty Joey Wentz? Are you down on him, or are the Twins? A lot of people have him going before 15.

 

Would you take Lowe over Whitley if Lowe were available? Would the Twins?

 

I'll take my answers off the air. Thank you.

 

[bluechipper]

I'm not a huge fan of continuing with the transitioning of relievers into starters, especially with the 15th pick.

[nater79a]

You mentioned Matt Manning dropping to the Padres at 24. Didn't you mock him to the Padres at 8?

[nater79a]

With the expected deals being cut at the top, is there  a chance a projected top-10 player falls to the Twins at 15? My fear is the Twins would take said player and run into a contract hassle - the player (and his agent) balk at the Twins' offer because they feel he should have gone higher. 

 

My hope is the Twins brass would know these demands ahead of time so that they could pass on the guy for someone else.

[Primetime82]

It's down right sad seeing the Twins draft 15th. Last season was a big fat fluke. This team should be picking top 5. 

[Hrbowski]

We are thinking along the same lines:

 

Forrest Whitley would probably be my personal pick at #15 if that was how it fell out, and even though tall pitchers' bodies often break down at a young age there have been a few like Wainwright and Halladay who are very similar to Whitley.

In my mock from two weeks ago I had the Twins taking Garrett, but it is beginning to look like there is no chance of that.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I think you mean Nick Senzel, not Scott, no?

 

Senzel is repped by Boras, so that's where the Scott came in, since, you know, Boras makes the call.

 

I'll get to the other ones later tonight.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You mentioned Matt Manning dropping to the Padres at 24. Didn't you mock him to the Padres at 8?

 

I had Manning and Wentz both under consideration at 8. My scribble must have confused me. Manning at 8. Wentz at 24.

[David HK]

 

It's down right sad seeing the Twins draft 15th. Last season was a big fat fluke. This team should be picking top 5. 

Yeh, but next year, we'll be #1!!!  Woo hoooooo!

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We are thinking along the same lines:

 

In my mock from two weeks ago I had the Twins taking Garrett, but it is beginning to look like there is no chance of that.

 

Garrett would be my pick of the litter, but being a Boras guy might not bode well for the Twins at 15.

[tobi0040]

What is your read on Okey? Will he stick at catcher and how far away is he from the big leagues?

 

Where do you see him being drafted?

[Hrbowski]

 

What is your read on Okey? Will he stick at catcher and how far away is he from the big leagues?

Where do you see him being drafted?

I'm not Jeremy, but I think Okey will stick at catcher, and is about three years away. He will probably be drafted in the second round.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Also, on the substance, why not lefty Joey Wentz? Are you down on him, or are the Twins? A lot of people have him going before 15.

 

Would you take Lowe over Whitley if Lowe were available? Would the Twins?

 

I'll take my answers off the air. Thank you.

 

Wentz should have been included in the batch that falls on pre-draft deals. While it may not be those particular guys, that's the pattern I think we see.

 

I do like Lowe and I'd take him, but I'm getting some sense that bats are gonna go because there aren't many and pitchers could fall. I haven't really lined up my preference behind Garrett, but there are a decent number of prep arms that all fit in that range.

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

With the expected deals being cut at the top, is there  a chance a projected top-10 player falls to the Twins at 15? My fear is the Twins would take said player and run into a contract hassle - the player (and his agent) balk at the Twins' offer because they feel he should have gone higher. 

 

My hope is the Twins brass would know these demands ahead of time so that they could pass on the guy for someone else.

 

All of this, but I don't worry that the Twins wouldn't know the price tag. Cody's not signing came down to a disagreement about his shoulder, not that the Twins hadn't done their work.

[tobi0040]

I know this will never happen. But looking out at our system, it would be an easy sell to take a college catcher and make an actual investment in the position.

 

I know they take the guy at the top of their board and they skew toward HS players. But this approach has not yielded a good catcher in 15 years (when we had the top pick).

 

So if we see a catcher 18th on our board, grab him. The alternative is paying a guy like Kurt Suzuki 6m a year to be terrible

[Jeremy Nygaard]

What is your read on Okey? Will he stick at catcher and how far away is he from the big leagues?

Where do you see him being drafted?

 

Haven't heard too much on him and haven't dug either. I don't think the Twins draft a catcher early and Okey should go in round 2.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Whitley isn't without warts. There was some talk earlier that he was going to skip out on this year's draft.

[Dman]

I like the idea of going High school pitcher in the first round.  It should match up well with where our pitching is at at each level.  As long as we get some bats in the second round things should even out.  We have three picks in the second and we need more productive bats in the system.  We should have good pitching at all levels shortly so hopefully we focus on bats in this draft.

[biggentleben]

 

I know this will never happen. But looking out at our system, it would be an easy sell to take a college catcher and make an actual investment in the position.

I know they take the guy at the top of their board and they skew toward HS players. But this approach has not yielded a good catcher in 15 years (when we had the top pick).

So if we see a catcher 18th on our board, grab him. The alternative is paying a guy like Kurt Suzuki 6m a year to be terrible

 

Catchers take significant time to develop, even college catchers.

[tobi0040]

But wouldn't a late round catcher take more time to develop than a first rounder?

 

Real good catchers don't hit FA. And we don't use high picks on them. And we don't sign them internationally

 

So I just don't understand the thought

Process.

[biggentleben]

 

But wouldn't a late round catcher take more time to develop than a first rounder?

Real good catchers don't hit FA. And we don't use high picks on them. And we don't sign them internationally

So I just don't understand the thought
Process.

 

Round doesn't really seem to make a difference. Look at Mike Zunino versus JT Realmuto. Realmuto was a HS catcher from the 3rd round, and he was up starting full-time 4 years after his draft season, and he's been progressively better since. Zunino was up within a year as a #3 pick overall, but he has obviously struggled.

 

And even once they reach the majors, many catchers take time learning the game at that level before their bats are worthwhile. Yadi Molina was flat out putrid for 3-4 seasons offensively.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think the takeaway is that catchers are really, really hard to find and develop. 

[glunn]

 

But wouldn't a late round catcher take more time to develop than a first rounder?

Real good catchers don't hit FA. And we don't use high picks on them. And we don't sign them internationally

So I just don't understand the thought
Process.

I would also like to hear more explanation of why the focus should not be on getting the best catcher available. We don't seem to be able to get outstanding catchers any other way.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I would also like to hear more explanation of why the focus should not be on getting the best catcher available. We don't seem to be able to get outstanding catchers any other way.

The best catcher available (Collins) doesn't have much chance at staying at catcher, as Jeremy rightly implied and Okey would be a reach at 15. There is a catcher expected to go around the time of our second pick, at 54, who although a prep, has high upside. His name is Ben Rortvedt. It would probably take going overslot, but I'd hope the Twins would do it if he's available and go underslot at the 73 or 74 spot.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I would also like to hear more explanation of why the focus should not be on getting the best catcher available. We don't seem to be able to get outstanding catchers any other way.

 

You don't take best catcher available because it would be a huge reach. Collins isn't a catcher. He could catch, but not something you want him to do regularly. I had two scouts yesterday tell me he's not a catcher, one saying best case is Vogt. Go down the list and you're not guaranteed to get a guy that sticks until you get to Cooper Johnson... and he's a repeat of Stuart Turner. You can't do that at 15. Later? Sure.

 

Considering how bad the team is now, you can have your pick of the lot in 2017. JJ Schwarz is the guy. Stick behind the plate and be an able average hitter. Team will have their choices of Murphy, Turner, Garver, Centeno next year. It ain't pretty but it's not so bad that you reach at 15.

[tobi0040]

You don't take best catcher available because it would be a huge reach. Collins isn't a catcher. He could catch, but not something you want him to do regularly. I had two scouts yesterday tell me he's not a catcher, one saying best case is Vogt. Go down the list and you're not guaranteed to get a guy that sticks until you get to Cooper Johnson... and he's a repeat of Stuart Turner. You can't do that at 15. Later? Sure.Considering how bad the team is now, you can have your pick of the lot in 2017. JJ Schwarz is the guy. Stick behind the plate and be an able average hitter. Team will have their choices of Murphy, Turner, Garver, Centeno next year. It ain't pretty but it's not so bad that you reach at 15.

I just looked up JJ. .332 average and 18 HR with the Gators as a freshman in 2015. He will do. Still hoping for a better stop gap the next two years, hopefully in FA

[Thrylos]

 

 

​One name that I wouldn’t sleep on here is Zack Burdi. It has nothing to do with big brother Nick. There’s some belief that Zack has the tools to make the transition into a successful starter with a fastball/slider/changeup mix. The Twins have made that transition successfully with Tyler Duffey and have recently been adding power arms as well. Little Burdi fits the mold.

 

 

I think that if the Twins can get Garrett if he is available because a. he is the best LHSP on the board after Puk (and maybe including Puk) and b. Good LHSPs do not grow on trees.  

 

Their strategy to get relievers and turn them into starters maybe got a 12.5% success rate, and that if one believes that Duffey is a success, for which the jury is still out with 13 MLB starts only and still difficulties (albeit better than last season) the second time + he faces a lineup.  Perkins was 9-5 with 3.something ERA in his first 14 MLB starts.  So I would wait a couple more seasons before I call Duffey a success.

 

I can see the Jay signing with the conversion intend, but he is a lefty.  And that is a better risk to take (because good LHSPs do not grow on trees.)  Just not so for Burdi, he might have more pitches than his brother, but his brother has unfortunately proven injury-prone, so I would not use a first round pick on a reliever.  On the other hand, a second round pick might worth it if he is still around.

 

I just hope that they are drafting from need this year.  They are a couple of Prep Catchers I like for the later rounds Ben Rortvedt (who should be available in the second round and is from WI) and Michael Amditis for the later rounds (5th or so; he is from LA and the Twins have a good scouting presence there.)  I really do not care much about the College Catchers this draft.  Not sure that the ones that will stay at C have pretty high ceiling.  Another name you will hear and has a lot of helium as far as catchers go is Herbert Iser (HS, Disneyworld) but has a Kennys Vargas body type...

 

The draft is always cool because it is all about possibilities and dreams.  Great break from the Twins' reality this season  

[nicksaviking]

 

I would also like to hear more explanation of why the focus should not be on getting the best catcher available. We don't seem to be able to get outstanding catchers any other way.

 

I guess if I had to make an argument against it, it would be that there hasn't been a good catcher drafted since 2008. I think the position is a lost cause, the best ballplayers don't want to play it any more.

[tobi0040]

 

I guess if I had to make an argument against it, it would be that there hasn't been a good catcher drafted since 2008. I think the position is a lost cause, the best ballplayers don't want to play it any more.

 

Since Mauer moved to 1B, the Twins are 28th in WAR at the catcher position with a WAR of 1.6.  I am guessing about 90% of that was Suzuki’s first 2-3 months here.  So it is safe to say we have netted zero in almost two years at the position.  Only one team was negative, so this is far from a breakeven.  In fact, the D-Backs have the same 1.6 WAR at the catcher position in the 44 games this year alone. 

 

We ranked 25th offensively and 29th defensively in WAR according to fangraphs.  I think it begs the question, why are we putting up with Suzuki’s .610 and .527 OPS if he is literally one of the worst defensive catchers in the game?  How much worse would Turner or Garver be at the plate? 

 

The other conclusion I can draw is this is another area where the Twins have left wins on the table.  In a game where almost every team wins between 65-95 games, these decisions matter.  Just like the 3 losses we project with having Sano in the outfield.  This team is never going to be good enough to spot the head start most teams have over us.