Article: Line Of Succession

[dxpavelka]

 

Given their insistence on hiring a manager with NO experience.....ya, I don't trust the owners either.

I wouldn't say they are INSISTANT on hiring a manger with no experience.  It just so happens the guy they hired (who much if not most of the fan base currently griping also thought was the right guy-even as recently as 8 months ago) didn't have any.

[tobi0040]

 

I wouldn't say they are INSISTANT on hiring a manger with no experience.  It just so happens the guy they hired (who much if not most of the fan base currently griping also thought was the right guy-even as recently as 8 months ago) didn't have any.

 

I remember the TD faithful being up in arms when we didn't even contact Maddon.  Myself included.  Of the three people who interviewed, quite a few including myself would have preferred Luvollo. 

 

Maddon likely would have signed with the Cubs anyway, but if I was guessing I think 70-80% of the faithful here would have rather had him than Molitor.

 

 

Edited May 12, 2016 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

I wouldn't say they are INSISTANT on hiring a manger with no experience. It just so happens the guy they hired (who much if not most of the fan base currently griping also thought was the right guy-even as recently as 8 months ago) didn't have any.

I disagree, I think at best Twins Daily was 50/50 about going outside the organization for a new manager and it was probably much, much higher.

 

But I also don't think they were insistent on hiring a guy with no experience. I think they might have been insistent on Molitor, but I don't think that had anything to do with his lack of managerial time.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, someone misconstrued my statement.......

 

they were pretty insistent on hiring Molitor, who had no experience. I'm not sure how anyone read that statement to think I meant a generic guy with no experience.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I wonder if might not be something to consider into hiring a minority manager, either Latino or African American. I say this for a handful of reasons. One, there really is not much diversity in our FO or coaching staff, but more importantly to mirror the composition of our core young players. We have 3 caucasian Americans in our starting lineup, and all are 29+ and have been often discussed in being traded or not part of our future (Mauer, Dozier, and Plouffe.) A caucasian American might not be the best choice for relating to this upcoming group possibly. On the other hand our pitching staff is mostly American, and our bullpen is almost ALL American, yet...that is our one Latino coach? 

 

Non-white or non-American Young position players that are considered part of our possible core:

 

Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Rosario, Arcia, Kepler, Santana, Escobar, Park, Walker, Gordon, Wade, Javier, Veilma, Walker...

 

Again, the pitching prospects are similar to our MLB pitching roster, in that they are almost all American born and white. Yet, just like our MLB position player roster, almost our our best hitting prospects are non-white or non American born. 

 

I think it would be wise to consider this when picking our next manager and hitting coach, as they deal more the with batters, and not as much with the pitchers. It would be a good thing for our organization to have more diversity and could possibly help our position players fell more connected and comfortable (it won't guarantee  it, but might help.) This is going to reflect or position player roster for quite a while, so might as well try and make a hire that gives them the best opportunity to communicate and feel comfortable with their manager. 

 

Again, this is just something that I personally feel MIGHT help, so don't jump on me here please. I am just a small town white guy myself, but I think this might helpful if and when we look for a new manager. Go ahead and look at our MLB and prospect  demographics both for hitter and batters and see if you think this might be a good idea to consider. 

 

*I do find it funny that the one Latino coach works with almost all caucasian Americans in the BP and almost all the BP prospects match that demographic too. 

 

 

[LaBombo]

 

i would have confidence in Rob Antony, Brad Steil and Jack Goin as potential GMs. 

 

Antony has great respect in the industry as a negotiator. He has a high-level of respect from the agents. He has the respect of the scouts and evaluators. 

 

 

It's a matter of record that Rob Antony's understanding of baseball metrics is 15 years out of date.

 

So my question regarding Antony is simply... how does that work?    Nobody expects a GM or other high level executive to pore over FanGraphs or proprietary quantitative analysis of players twelve hours a day in an attempt to break down the abilities and performance of hundreds of players and prospects.   The Twins have grudgingly dipped their toe in the 21st century by hiring a staff to do that.

 

But how can Antony the hypothetical GM apply the quantitative analysis he's given by his staff when he lacks even the necessary metric vocabulary to discuss the statistical breakdowns of players?

 

His lack of knowledge is not an opinion.   It's a fact relayed by a 2010 Aaron Gleeman interview that frankly should have both embarrassed and scared the hell out of Rob Antony, and most of all motivated him to roll up his sleeves and read everything he could about advanced baseball metrics, as well as learn everything he could from Twins staffers Jack Goin and company.

 

But instead,  Antony has continued to embrace what appears to be at best a casual disregard for metrics,  and at worst an active disdain .   When interviewed in 2015 regarding Brian Dozier's contract extension,  he still evinced a quantitative analysis ceiling of combining random counting stats in the manner of a USA Today factoid,  and still well below the level of knowledge of his front office peers in the industry.

 

There are only two defenses that I can see of Antony as a prospective GM in light of this deficiency.   One is that he's a 'big picture guy',  and that he's only looking for a thumbs up or down from Goin and company regarding players of interest.

 

The other is the 'He'd tell you but he'd have to kill you' defense;   that Antony and Goin regularly engage in sabremetric summits that would leave NASA engineers' mouths agape,  but that both the actual information and Antony's grasp of it are soooper dooper top secret.

 

At the end of the day,  with the information available to us 'outsiders',  any discussion of Antony's qualification(s) as a future GM starts and ends with his being a trusted member of the Twins front office family.   That's pretty thin gruel to anyone whose last name isn't Pohlad,  and it's getting thinner with each embarrassing loss.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

It's a matter of record that Rob Antony's understanding of baseball metrics is 15 years out of date.

 

So my question regarding Antony is simply... how does that work? Nobody expects a GM or other high level executive to pore over FanGraphs or proprietary quantitative analysis of players twelve hours a day in an attempt to break down the abilities and performance of hundreds of players and prospects. The Twins have grudgingly dipped their toe in the 21st century by hiring a staff to do that.

 

But how can Antony the hypothetical GM apply the quantitative analysis he's given by his staff when he lacks even the necessary metric vocabulary to discuss the statistical breakdowns of players?

 

His lack of knowledge is not an opinion. It's a fact relayed by a 2010 Aaron Gleeman interview that frankly should have both embarrassed and scared the hell out of Rob Antony, and most of all motivated him to roll up his sleeves and read everything he could about advanced baseball metrics, as well as learn everything he could from Twins staffers Jack Goin and company.

 

But instead, Antony has continued to embrace what appears to be at best a casual disregard for metrics, and at worst an active disdain . When interviewed in 2015 regarding Brian Dozier's contract extension, he still evinced a quantitative analysis ceiling of combining random counting stats in the manner of a USA Today factoid, and still well below the level of knowledge of his front office peers in the industry.

 

There are only two defenses that I can see of Antony as a prospective GM in light of this deficiency. One is that he's a 'big picture guy', and that he's only looking for a thumbs up or down from Goin and company regarding players of interest.

 

The other is the 'He'd tell you but he'd have to kill you' defense; that Antony and Goin regularly engage in sabremetric summits that would leave NASA engineers' mouths agape, but that both the actual information and Antony's grasp of it are soooper dooper top secret.

 

At the end of the day, with the information available to us 'outsiders', any discussion of Antony's qualification(s) as a future GM starts and ends with his being a trusted member of the Twins front office family. That's pretty thin gruel to anyone whose last name isn't Pohlad, and it's getting thinner with each embarrassing loss.

POTY Nominee.

Well said.

[drivlikejehu]

It is really unfathomable to me how openly and intentionally ignorant Antony is, and surely he's not the only one. I truthfully cannot wrap my mind around it. 

 

In what other line of work is that acceptable? Maybe still some corners of the sports world, though not really MLB outside Minnesota. 

 

How would I imitate this at my job?

 

client: What are the consequences of this transaction?

me: Well, in 1990 you'd take a big tax hit.

client: What about in 2016?

me: I really prefer to stick with the 1990 thing.

[Seth Stohs]

 

It's a matter of record that Rob Antony's understanding of baseball metrics is 15 years out of date.

 

So my question regarding Antony is simply... how does that work?    Nobody expects a GM or other high level executive to pore over FanGraphs or proprietary quantitative analysis of players twelve hours a day in an attempt to break down the abilities and performance of hundreds of players and prospects.   The Twins have grudgingly dipped their toe in the 21st century by hiring a staff to do that.

 

But how can Antony the hypothetical GM apply the quantitative analysis he's given by his staff when he lacks even the necessary metric vocabulary to discuss the statistical breakdowns of players?

 

His lack of knowledge is not an opinion.   It's a fact relayed by a 2010 Aaron Gleeman interview that frankly should have both embarrassed and scared the hell out of Rob Antony, and most of all motivated him to roll up his sleeves and read everything he could about advanced baseball metrics, as well as learn everything he could from Twins staffers Jack Goin and company.

 

But instead,  Antony has continued to embrace what appears to be at best a casual disregard for metrics,  and at worst an active disdain .   When interviewed in 2015 regarding Brian Dozier's contract extension,  he still evinced a quantitative analysis ceiling of combining random counting stats in the manner of a USA Today factoid,  and still well below the level of knowledge of his front office peers in the industry.

 

There are only two defenses that I can see of Antony as a prospective GM in light of this deficiency.   One is that he's a 'big picture guy',  and that he's only looking for a thumbs up or down from Goin and company regarding players of interest.

 

The other is the 'He'd tell you but he'd have to kill you' defense;   that Antony and Goin regularly engage in sabremetric summits that would leave NASA engineers' mouths agape,  but that both the actual information and Antony's grasp of it are soooper dooper top secret.

 

At the end of the day,  with the information available to us 'outsiders',  any discussion of Antony's qualification(s) as a future GM starts and ends with his being a trusted member of the Twins front office family.   That's pretty thin gruel to anyone whose last name isn't Pohlad,  and it's getting thinner with each embarrassing loss.

 

First, the article Parker wrote, interviewing Antony was like 4 years ago... I'm guessing that he knows a ton more about the subject now than he did then. And second, I agree that a GM doesn't need to know the minutiae. They need to have smart people like Jack Goin (analytics group), Brad Steil (player development side), Mike Radcliff and others around him to make sure he is getting all of the informatnion on every move. 

[Craig Arko]

The answer to "who's next in line" seems clear to me.

 

From a USA Today article last year: Torii Hunter.

 

"Hunter, you see, wants to be a GM one day. If he retires after this season, he hopes to work in the Twins' front office, learning under Ryan, while also working in TV."

 

A "Twins guy", but not the way they typically roll. Mientkiewicz replaces Molitor. Jones replaces Bruno. Pierzynski replaces Vavra. ESPN shoots a new cover, "The Team That Saved the Twins."

This may be the best post ever written that doesn't include a cute animal video.

[Otto von Ballpark]

First, the article Parker wrote, interviewing Antony was like 4 years ago... I'm guessing that he knows a ton more about the subject now than he did then. And second, I agree that a GM doesn't need to know the minutiae. They need to have smart people like Jack Goin (analytics group), Brad Steil (player development side), Mike Radcliff and others around him to make sure he is getting all of the informatnion on every move.

How well did surrounding himself with the right people help Bill Smith?

[tobi0040]

First, the article Parker wrote, interviewing Antony was like 4 years ago... I'm guessing that he knows a ton more about the subject now than he did then. And second, I agree that a GM doesn't need to know the minutiae. They need to have smart people like Jack Goin (analytics group), Brad Steil (player development side), Mike Radcliff and others around him to make sure he is getting all of the informatnion on every move.

Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt, he was three years into his role as assistant GM (after scouting for 12 years)I can't think of a bigger red flag.

[jimmer]

 

How well did surrounding himself with the right people help Bill Smith?

or Ryan since he's been back, actually..

[nicksaviking]

Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt, he was three years into his role as assistant GM (after scouting for 12 years)I can't think of a bigger red flag.

I would not be comfortable with Anthony as GM, but it wouldn't be because of an interview he gave a half decade ago. As amatures in this field, everyone on this site probably has exponentially increased our knowledge of baseball staristics than we did five years ago. Stating someone who is paid to work in a MLB front office hasn't improved in this area when armchair amatures have is ridiculous.

[tobi0040]

Stating someone who is paid to work in a MLB front office hasn't improved in this area when armchair amatures have is ridiculous.

I in no way tried to imply that. Simply that he was both a heartbeat (or cancer scare) away from being the GM and he was woefully unfit to perform the role relative to his peers. That should in no way be a controversial statement. There is literally no chance he was among the top 30-60 people qualified for that role in the world.

 

And I would suggest that aptitude lacks an intellectual curiosity on his part and speaks to the culture with the Twins where that was not only acceptable, but recognized and continually promoted. Lastly, he likely has Improved his knowledge and by a lot, but so has the rest of the league and he had a long way to go.

[Thrylos]

 

How well did surrounding himself with the right people help Bill Smith?

 

He did not.  He surrounded himself with Ryan's people...

[diehardtwinsfan]

Antony served as an interim GM when Ryan was out in 2014, and he wasn't very impressive then.  I'll echo what other said, very little about his body of work says that he's the right guy for this job.  Yes, I get that guys can learn a lot, but of the internal names floated, I have the least confidence in him.  At the very least, Krivisky went outside the org and ran the reds for a few years.  I'd take a guy like that who has seen other orgs over Anthony at this point.

 

As for Molly, let's put to rest the 'no experience' meme.  He's an HOF baseball player who has been in the game for longer than many of us have been alive.  He was pretty good as a manager last year.  I won't argue that he's made some mistakes this season, but I do think he deserves a chance to  learn from them... now, one caveat to that.  If he's refusing to play the kids and pulling a Gardy, then he's all but saying he isn't right for this team.

[Thrylos]

 

  At the very least, Krivisky went outside the org and ran the reds for a few years.

 

Check the quote from the Reds' owner when he fired Krivsky (from here)

 

"We've just come to a point where we're not going to lose anymore," Reds owner Bob Castellini said emphatically.

 

Does it sound familiar?

 

Also from there, about Krivsky's tendencies:

 

Krivsky showed a fondness for signing older pitchers (etc)

 

Does that sound like someone we know and "love"?

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Check the quote from the Reds' owner when he fired Krivsky (from here)

 

"We've just come to a point where we're not going to lose anymore," Reds owner Bob Castellini said emphatically.

 

Does it sound familiar?

 

Also from there, about Krivsky's tendencies:

 

Krivsky showed a fondness for signing older pitchers (etc)

 

Does that sound like someone we know and "love"?

 

I don’t think Krivsky had a terrible run in Cincy and it was too brief too draw too many conclusions.  He was hired at the end of February in 2006, where the roster was basically set.  They won 80 games.  The next year they won 74 and he was fired 21 days into the 2008 season.    So he basically had the 2006 and 2007 draft and 2007 and 2008 offseason. 

 

The 2006 draft was not great but not terrible.  They took Drew Stubbs 8th overall.  He has had a ten year career, averaging over a WAR per season.  We have seen worse.   The 2007 draft was quite good.  Mesoraco was taken in the middle of the first round. Todd Frazier was taken in the 2nd round.  And Zach Cosart was taken in the 4th round.    He also took Josh Hamilton in the rule 5, had him on the roster for a year and flipped him for Edinson Volquez, who had an all star year in 2008.  The only real free agent signing he had was Francisco Cordero, 4 years and $46M.  Too much for a closer but he was very good in his four years there.  The team got better after he was fired, but he had his fingerprints on the starting CF, 3B, SS, catcher, closer, and a starter of those teams. 

 

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want him as the next GM here.  I want an outsider.  But we could do worse among the Twins brass.

[Deduno Abides]

First, the article Parker wrote, interviewing Antony was like 4 years ago... I'm guessing that he knows a ton more about the subject now than he did then. And second, I agree that a GM doesn't need to know the minutiae. They need to have smart people like Jack Goin (analytics group), Brad Steil (player development side), Mike Radcliff and others around him to make sure he is getting all of the informatnion on every move.

 

What have Jack Goin and Brad Steil done that establishes their excellence? I just don't get it. Analytics on the Twins is just now approaching an understanding of where most of the league was 5-10 years ago and player development doesn't exactly look like a machine that converts highly rated prospects into All-Stars.

 

As far as Antony, he was awful a few years ago. I would hope that a positive assessment of his current ability would be based on a lot more than an expectation that he's learned a lot in four years.

 

Do you want to know a simple way to get a true sense of what the rest of the league thinks about the Twins' front office staff? It's not what the other teams say about the FO. Talk is cheap. Instead, it's how often Twins staff are considered for jobs with other organizations. And the evidence there is that no teams have interest in any of the Twins brain trust.

[tobi0040]

What have Jack Goin and Brad Steil done that establishes their excellence? I just don't get it. Analytics on the Twins is just now approaching an understanding of where most of the league was 5-10 years ago and player development doesn't exactly look like a machine that converts highly rated prospects into All-Stars.

 

And the evidence there is that no teams have interest in any of the Twins brain trust.

Yup. Even in the good years of winning a bad division. I think Krivsky is the only guy under Terry that has been a GM elsewhere.

 

I can't think of a guy under Gardy or TK that has managed elsewhere.

 

Nobody hired Gardy or Bill Smith. Doug M was a candidate internally but I have not seen anyone else interested.

Edited May 13, 2016 by tobi0040

[dxpavelka]

 

I remember the TD faithful being up in arms when we didn't even contact Maddon.  Myself included.  Of the three people who interviewed, quite a few including myself would have preferred Luvollo. 

 

Maddon likely would have signed with the Cubs anyway, but if I was guessing I think 70-80% of the faithful here would have rather had him than Molitor.

Maddon was the rare guy who was in a position to call his shot, whether right away or waiting a year.  When is the last time a guy in that position who even bothered to answer a call from a Minnesota area code?

[tobi0040]

 

Maddon was the rare guy who was in a position to call his shot, whether right away or waiting a year.  When is the last time a guy in that position who even bothered to answer a call from a Minnesota area code?

 

That maybe true.  But I think it was either admitted to or confirmed by a source (if I remember correctly), that we never reached out to Maddon.

 

If you have a job opening, why not at least put in a phone call to the best candidate?

Edited May 13, 2016 by tobi0040

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Seth, I love everything you do for this site, but you can't be save the titanic with the second in command. This team desparatly needs outside help. It can no longer be ignored. More of the same will not work!

 

Agreed. Total system failure means TOTAL system failure. IMO someone from the outside is needed to implement a total renovation in organizatioanl philosophy.

 

Also, the Gardenhire re-hire mentioned in the article raises the question of who among the FO staff isn't a byproduct of misguided hiring as well. I don't know enough to comment intellectually, but at this point, everything with the current FO needs to be questioned.

[LaBombo]

 

First, the article Parker wrote, interviewing Antony was like 4 years ago... I'm guessing that he knows a ton more about the subject now than he did then. And second, I agree that a GM doesn't need to know the minutiae. They need to have smart people like Jack Goin (analytics group), Brad Steil (player development side), Mike Radcliff and others around him to make sure he is getting all of the informatnion on every move. 

 

Second point first; the word "minutiae" probably doesn't apply here.    Antony was wholly unfamiliar with the concept of batting average on balls in play,   for heaven's sake,    which has been a fundamental cornerstone of the effort to reduce random effects in player metrics for over a decade,  as well as freely available even to the public by the time of that conversation.

 

But that distinction is irrelevant if you believe Antony has since done his homework and is now either thoroughly educated on advanced metrics,  or at least in possession of even just a working vocabulary, which he lacked previously.

 

Two problems with that.   One is that as recently as last spring, during his tenure as acting GM no less,   he continued to discuss player valuations using only rudimentary counting stats and old, cigar-chomping scout phrases like 'the ball jumps off his bat'.

 

With respect to Dozier in particular,  he recited counting stats while discussing his contract extension late last year,   choosing to ignore Dozier's somewhat paradoxical metrics, especially his worrisome sellout to an extreme pull fly ball tendency that is almost exclusively the domain of aging, one-tool power hitters.

 

The second problem to me is that while I am totally on board with learning from mistakes,   how on earth did Antony find himself that far behind his peers with respect to metrics in the first place?

 

The common thread in the background of virtually all pro baseball GM's, coaches, and scouts is an absolute love of baseball that dates back to early childhood.   Combine that with an almost universal thirst among executives in any field for 'insider information' about their trade,   and a major league front office's constant drive to outsmart the competition,  and it's almost impossible to imagine how an ambitious,  hard-working front office exec could have such a large blind spot regarding even basic baseball metrics, unless he simply refused to allow that they are potentially of value.

 

And that's not a guy you want running your franchise.   An army of Jack Goins won't get through to a GM Rob Antony if he doesn't understand their language or believe their message.

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by LaBombo

[Mr. Brooks]

Maddon was the rare guy who was in a position to call his shot, whether right away or waiting a year. When is the last time a guy in that position who even bothered to answer a call from a Minnesota area code?

Thibodaux and Boudreau, and that's just in the last 6 weeks.

[dxpavelka]

 

That maybe true.  But I think it was either admitted to or confirmed by a source (if I remember correctly), that we never reached out to Maddon.

 

If you have a job opening, why not at least put in a phone call to the best candidate?

We don't KNOW that a call wasn't made.  We assume.  And we all know how that works out.

[dxpavelka]

 

Thibodaux and Boudreau, and that's just in the last 6 weeks.

And in the last 6 times the Wolves have had an opening or every time the Wild have had an opening......????

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Antony served as an interim GM when Ryan was out in 2014, and he wasn't very impressive then.  I'll echo what other said, very little about his body of work says that he's the right guy for this job.  Yes, I get that guys can learn a lot, but of the internal names floated, I have the least confidence in him.  At the very least, Krivisky went outside the org and ran the reds for a few years.  I'd take a guy like that who has seen other orgs over Anthony at this point.

 

As for Molly, let's put to rest the 'no experience' meme.  He's an HOF baseball player who has been in the game for longer than many of us have been alive.  He was pretty good as a manager last year.  I won't argue that he's made some mistakes this season, but I do think he deserves a chance to  learn from them... now, one caveat to that.  If he's refusing to play the kids and pulling a Gardy, then he's all but saying he isn't right for this team.

 

No, he made the same tactical errors last year as a manager, most of us gave him a pass because he had zero experience at it. zero. Being on a team is 100% not like running a team.

 

edit: how long should he have to quit sacrifice bunting early in the game, or running for Sano late, or not PH for his worst hitters late, or all the other things we've been pointing out for 1+ years now?

Edited May 16, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Mr. Brooks]

And in the last 6 times the Wolves have had an opening or every time the Wild have had an opening......????

That wasn't the question I responded to.

Why are you moving the goalposts?