Trade Sano?

[Oxtung]

GREAT POINT....in this case regarding Miguel Sano....Time is most definately the Twins friend.

Not really. There is a very real chance his value decreases from here on out. Going into this year he was considered a top 30 prospect by many people. Not much room to increase value but plenty of value to be lost. Unless he can get those K's under control his stock will seemingly fall. So, IF (and I can't stress that enough) Sano is a potential trade chip time is not your friend. On top of that the Twins are utterly devoid of pitching in the upper majors and on the roster right now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Stock dropping, really? He's 19 and is holding own in a pitcher friendly A- league. He's hit 20 home runs already. Yes, he's striking out a lot and isn't going to progress through teh system quite as fast as the optimists had hoped, but this hardly means his stock is dropping. I'd also note that despite the .050 point drop in BA from Elizabethon to Beloit, his OBP has remained the same, which means he's taking A TON more walks... My guess is that he's probably letting a few too many called strikes go by, which is far easier to improve on than simply flailing away at pitches out of the zone.

 

I could see making a case that Arcia moves into the 1 spot simply because he's performing quite nicely at AA as a 22 year old, but that isn't because Sano is less of a propsect as much as it is that Arcia is becoming a nicer one, but let's be sensible. This kid has Miguel Cabrera potential, and that hasn't changed. Would I trade him for the right package? Sure, but those deals never happen.

[jimbo92107]

Do you think we could get the great Mark Buehrle for a mere minor leaguer like Miguel Sano? Wow, what a deal! If Terry Ryan could swing this deal, he'd be as universally loved as...Mike Lynn!

[Willihammer]

Buehrle is only one who meets the criteria. By the way, he will likely deliver surplus value at 4/58, as he is in the middle of another very good year that no one is noticing.

 

A Sano-Buehrle trade straight up wouldn't be my first choice either but if they are chips in part of a larger deal then I would listen.

[Oxtung]

Good point. But, if the Twins trade Liriano in the next few days then it will signal what they are open to doing this offseason, I think. There aren't many unrestricted top flight free agent SP's this year. It is likely that Liriano would be our best option, and so if they stand pat then I would be curious to see if they double down this offseason, and mortgage Sano to get an option better than Edwin Jackson, J. Shields (assuming the Rays don't pick up his '13 option), or Hamels (assuming the Phils don't extend him, or trade him to someone who does extend him).

 

I would explore a Sano-Felix trade. Sure, Felix is supposedly off-limits, but consider: Smoak has been a bust so far, and Ackley not much better.

This post is completely backwards. There are actually potentially more good FA pitchers this year than normal. Liriano, even pitching like he is right now, isn't at the top of that list. Toss in the fact that over the last 5 years been one of the worst pitchers in baseball and he starts looking worse and worse. Hamels is close to a #1 pitcher and is looking to get paid like one. Let's toss out a list of pitchers better than Liriano historically and potential FA's this year:

 

Cole Hamels

Zach Greinke

Edwin Jackson

R.A. Dickey

Gavin Floyd

Dan Haren

Colby Lewis

Shaun Marcum

Brandon McCarthy

Jake Peavy

Anibal Sanchez

[Willihammer]

As an example, Kenny Williams caught a lot of flack last off-season for waffling in terms of full rebuild, or full re-load mode. The White Sox are another team with good core of players but lack only 1 or 2 pieces, and they will likely finish just outside the last playoff spot.

 

If Baker or Gibson comes back and pitches at a high level, then what? The worst thing is to be unprepared for success.

[Oxtung]

Stock dropping, really? He's 19 and is holding own in a pitcher friendly A- league. He's hit 20 home runs already. Yes, he's striking out a lot and isn't going to progress through teh system quite as fast as the optimists had hoped, but this hardly means his stock is dropping. I'd also note that despite the .050 point drop in BA from Elizabethon to Beloit, his OBP has remained the same, which means he's taking A TON more walks... My guess is that he's probably letting a few too many called strikes go by, which is far easier to improve on than simply flailing away at pitches out of the zone.

 

I could see making a case that Arcia moves into the 1 spot simply because he's performing quite nicely at AA as a 22 year old, but that isn't because Sano is less of a propsect as much as it is that Arcia is becoming a nicer one, but let's be sensible. This kid has Miguel Cabrera potential, and that hasn't changed. Would I trade him for the right package? Sure, but those deals never happen.

Not sure if you're responding to me or not but if you are you are misinterpreting my post. I didn't say his stock HAS dropped. I said it is more likely to drop than to rise. So if you're going to trade him the time is now. It's a question of risk management. Yes, he has high upside. But as with all young prospects there is a VERY real chance he never fulfills that potential.

[Willihammer]

This post is completely backwards. There are actually potentially more good FA pitchers this year than normal. Liriano, even pitching like he is right now, isn't at the top of that list. Toss in the fact that over the last 5 years been one of the worst pitchers in baseball and he starts looking worse and worse. Hamels is close to a #1 pitcher and is looking to get paid like one. Let's toss out a list of pitchers better than Liriano historically and potential FA's this year:

 

The market for Liriano will be in the 3/30 range I think. High upside at relatively low risk.

 

Cole Hamels - turned down 130m offer from Phils / too expensive / low-reward/$

Zach Greinke - likely to earn as much as Hamels / too expensive / low -reward/$

Edwin Jackson - good candidate - any interest in MN?

R.A. Dickey - 38 yrs old, any interest in coming back to MN?

Gavin Floyd - 3rd starter, low-reward/$

Dan Haren - back problems / declining fastball velocity / too expen sive / low-reward/$

Colby Lewis - backfill / innings eater type. might be worthwhile at low price

Shaun Marcum - bum elbow. backfill / innings eater type.

Brandon McCarthy - good candidate

Jake Peavy - interesting candidate at the right price

Anibal Sanchez - good candidate at right price / unproven success in AL

 

 

not all are more appealing than Liriano.

[Oxtung]

The market for Liriano will be in the 3/30 range I think. High upside at relatively low risk. Not all are more appealing than Liriano.

Low risk? You're talking about committing ~10% of your team salary. That is risky even for players with good track records. Look at Morneau. You are talking about giving that to a pitcher that has been below league average the last 5 years. That is the definition of high risk.

 

Liriano vs. League since 2008

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

[/TD]

[TD]ERA

WHIP

k/9

bb/9

IP/GS

Liriano

4.61

1.409

8.6

4.0

5.8

League

4.26

1.35

6.7

3.0

5.9

[/TABLE]

[Willihammer]

Advanced metrics tell a different story. Also Morneau is 6/80, a far cry from 3/30.

 

Of the players you listed before, all would command 3/30 or more with no chance of putting together seasons comparable to liriano circa 2006 or 2010. Yes, Liriano is inconsistent but at 3/30 it would not be an albatross and could easily return a surplus value, where as a deal for Hamels / Greinke who would command something like 5 / 140 or more and very quickly turn into an albatrosszx

 

Returning to the original point, the best bargain is on younger better pitchers under team control for next 2-4 years, namely Hernandez and Price. This combined with a 3/30m liriano deal and a return to form from either Baker or Gibson, contributions from Pavano, Blackburn, Hendriks, et al. at the back, and you are better prepared for success 2013-2015 or longer, rather than putting all your eggs in the Sano basket and floundering at the fringe of the playoff picture as the White Sox .cca 2012.

[Oxtung]

Advanced metrics tell a different story. Also Morneau is 6/80, a far cry from 3/30.

 

Of the players you listed before, all would command 3/30 or more with no chance of putting together seasons comparable to liriano circa 2006 or 2010. Yes, Liriano is inconsistent but at 3/30 it would not be an albatross and could easily return a surplus value, where as a deal for Hamels / Greinke who would command something like 5 / 140 or more and very quickly turn into an albatrosszx

 

Returning to the original point, the best bargain is on younger better pitchers under team control for next 2-4 years, namely Hernandez and Price. This combined with a 3/30m liriano deal and a return to form from either Baker or Gibson, contributions from Pavano, Blackburn, Hendriks, et al. at the back, and you are better prepared for success 2013-2015 or longer, rather than putting all your eggs in the Sano basket and floundering at the fringe of the playoff picture as the White Sox .cca 2012.

You're right our Liriano talk is OT for this thread. I apologize to OP. I've responded to your Liriano statements in a more appropriate thread.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/showthread.php?2317-The-Twins-need-to-sign-Liriano-to-a-2-3-year-contract-ASAP&p=36939&viewfull=1#post36939

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not sure if you're responding to me or not but if you are you are misinterpreting my post. I didn't say his stock HAS dropped. I said it is more likely to drop than to rise. So if you're going to trade him the time is now. It's a question of risk management. Yes, he has high upside. But as with all young prospects there is a VERY real chance he never fulfills that potential.

I was, and I'm not sure I agree with what you said in bold. Sano could (and quite possibly will) repeat in Beloit and would still be a very good propsect. The fact alone that he smacked 20 home runs there will have anyone drooling...

 

Oh, and on a separate note, the Twins should absolutely not trade Sano for Buerhle... Ryan should be dragged out to CF and summarily hanged if he tried to pull that off.

[Highabove]

Let me get this one straight. The Twins are trying to build up their Farm System by shipping off their top prospect, who by the way, is the only true power hitter in the Farm System.

Do I have this right??

[Oxtung]

I was, and I'm not sure I agree with what you said in bold. Sano could (and quite possibly will) repeat in Beloit and would still be a very good propsect. The fact alone that he smacked 20 home runs there will have anyone drooling...

Here are BA's top 10 prospects from 2002:

 

1. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins

2. Mark Prior, rhp, Cubs

3. Hank Blalock, 3b, Rangers

4. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres

5. Carlos Pena, 1b, Athletics

6. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs

7. Joe Mauer, c, Twins

8. Wilson Betemit, ss, Braves

9. Drew Henson, 3b, Yankees

10. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers

 

Four of those panned out like you're expecting Sano to. 2002 isn't a fluke either. It's just the way of prospects. Most don't turn out. Go back and look you'll see that highly thought of prospects flame out all the time.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

[kab21]

and arguably a lesser prospect than OF Jorge Bonifacio (royals).

credibility lost.

 

Sano is a complete boom/bust prospect. You're right to have concerns but he's also a 19 yr old playing in full season ball with 80 (out of 80) power. it's also encouraging that he has a 2:1 K:BB ratio (he's not only striking out) and a .250 isoP in a pitcher's league. I have always thought that Twins fans overrate him but he's a really good prospect.

 

If the Twins were in a different place (competitive) then I would consider trading him for an ace that could put the team over the top. But they are awful and not even Felix Hernandez will make the difference.

[ScottyB]

Let me get this one straight. The Twins are trying to build up their Farm System by shipping off their top prospect, who by the way, is the only true power hitter in the Farm System.

Do I have this right??

This. Do we really want to trade a prospect with an 80 power rating on the 80-20 scale for a pitcher to help this current team? One veteran pitcher will not turn this team around this year or next not even Felix or Price, these guys would be a waste of money at this time.

 

Let's hope they are banking some money to bring in a veteran presence in 2015 when the next group of prospects - Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will have more experience and can join Dozier, Plouffe, Mauer, Diamond, Hendricks, Perkins, Parmelee and Revere. Now is the time to trade veterans like Span, Liriano, Morneau and eventually in August Pavano and Capps. Use guys like Casilla and Valencia as sweeteners for trades now.

 

I personally would like to see Span traded to the Nats with Casilla for Lombo Jr., and 2 of Robbie Ray, Kylin Turnbull, and Daniel Rosenbaum. Lombo is young enough to start at 2B now, batting second after Revere and versatile enough to become an outstanding utility guy when Rosario is ready for 2B. Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum are 3 lefty starters due to be ready for the rotation in a couple of years.

[Willihammer]

This. Do we really want to... bring in a veteran presence in 2015 when the next group of prospects - Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will have more experience and can join Dozier, Plouffe, Mauer, Diamond, Hendricks, Perkins, Parmelee and Revere. Now is the time to trade veterans like Span, Liriano, Morneau and eventually in August Pavano and Capps. Use guys like Casilla and Valencia as sweeteners for trades now.

 

I personally would like to see Span traded to the Nats with Casilla for Lombo Jr., and 2 of Robbie Ray, Kylin Turnbull, and Daniel Rosenbaum. Lombo is young enough to start at 2B now, batting second after Revere and versatile enough to become an outstanding utility guy when Rosario is ready for 2B. Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum are 3 lefty starters due to be ready for the rotation in a couple of years.

Count the assumptions in this post.

 

1. Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will mature into big league above-average 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman, outfielder, and outfielder. Unlikely at best.

 

2. A speedy low-power outfield of Hicks, Arcia and Revere cuts it in 2015 AL.

 

3. The Nats don't pull a trade before the end of the year and, A. are still interested in Span despite his concussion issues, B. are shopping Lambordozzi, C. Span is a worse outfielder than one of Hicks, Arcia, Revere, etc. D. Lombo is a better utility guy than Casilla

 

4. The Nats are interested in soaping up Morneau's contract, and A. would additinonally trade prospects on top ie. 1 or more of Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum

 

That my friend adds up to a sandcastle in the sky. Things change faster than you may think. And the Nats are changing as fast as any team in the league. They need a CF but that is all you have accurately described, I think

[diehardtwinsfan]

Here are BA's top 10 prospects from 2002:

 

1. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins

2. Mark Prior, rhp, Cubs

3. Hank Blalock, 3b, Rangers

4. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres

5. Carlos Pena, 1b, Athletics

6. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs

7. Joe Mauer, c, Twins

8. Wilson Betemit, ss, Braves

9. Drew Henson, 3b, Yankees

10. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers

 

Four of those panned out like you're expecting Sano to. 2002 isn't a fluke either. It's just the way of prospects. Most don't turn out. Go back and look you'll see that highly thought of prospects flame out all the time.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

 

4 panned out (and a few more had some decent careers)... therefore, let's trade him for an overpriced pitcher on the downswing of his career... yeah, makes a lot of sense.

[spideyo]

If you are going to trade a top prospect, it'd be much wiser to trade Benson/Hicks/Arcia/Kepler. We have lots of depth in the OF, but not much for the IF.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Count the assumptions in this post.

 

1. Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will mature into big league above-average 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman, outfielder, and outfielder. Unlikely at best.

 

2. A speedy low-power outfield of Hicks, Arcia and Revere cuts it in 2015 AL.

 

3. The Nats don't pull a trade before the end of the year and, A. are still interested in Span despite his concussion issues, B. are shopping Lambordozzi, C. Span is a worse outfielder than one of Hicks, Arcia, Revere, etc. D. Lombo is a better utility guy than Casilla

 

4. The Nats are interested in soaping up Morneau's contract, and A. would additinonally trade prospects on top ie. 1 or more of Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum

 

That my friend adds up to a sandcastle in the sky. Things change faster than you may think. And the Nats are changing as fast as any team in the league. They need a CF but that is all you have accurately described, I think

1. You have a point here, though Hicks and Arcia are sitting in AA now and doing quite well, so you can argue they are much much more likely to succeed.

2. Hopefully, that is Hicks, Arcia, and Benson. It's speedy, and certainly not low power. Arcia looks like the real deal, and both Hicks and Benson will likely be 10-20 HR guys who might have a couple of 20+ seasons.

3. Span needs to be flipped for a pitcher (which I think you agree on)

4. I doubt anyone takes on Morneau this year and gives us something good... Morneau gets traded next season.

[Oxtung]

credibility lost.

 

...with 80 (out of 80) power...

Do you have a source for that?

[Mchans24]

This conversation is silly!! Let's take a look at Miguel Cabrera in minor leagues

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Miguel-Cabrera

 

He never put up Sano type power numbers, he did hit for a slightly higher average and struck out a little less.

 

I would trade him for Price or King Felix in a heartbeat as they are proven commodities that instantly improve a major weakness not only in the major leagues but in your entire system. TB and Seattle would be nuts to trade a number 1 big league pitcher for a A ball 3B/1B/Outfielder!!

[etspaceman]

This has to be a bit.

 

Seriously? Trading your best prospect at his lowest trade value is not how you rebuild... at all. What are the Twins going to gain out of a 2 year rental? Are you that desperate to see some wins that you're willing to sacrifice your best prospect? On the glimmer of hope that somehow, this pitiful team wins it all simply because they have one competent starting pitcher?

 

You gotta be mental.

[ScottyB]

Count the assumptions in this post.

 

1. Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will mature into big league above-average 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman, outfielder, and outfielder. Unlikely at best.

 

2. A speedy low-power outfield of Hicks, Arcia and Revere cuts it in 2015 AL.

 

3. The Nats don't pull a trade before the end of the year and, A. are still interested in Span despite his concussion issues, B. are shopping Lambordozzi, C. Span is a worse outfielder than one of Hicks, Arcia, Revere, etc. D. Lombo is a better utility guy than Casilla

 

4. The Nats are interested in soaping up Morneau's contract, and A. would additinonally trade prospects on top ie. 1 or more of Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum

 

That my friend adds up to a sandcastle in the sky. Things change faster than you may think. And the Nats are changing as fast as any team in the league. They need a CF but that is all you have accurately described, I think

 

1. You're the idiot who wants to trade Sano at age 19 for an expensive starting pitcher for this team right now. As I said, an expensive starting pitcher will not turn this team around. They aren't a player or 2 away from contending. This would be throwing money out the door.

 

2. Not sure what you consider to be above average, but Hicks is on the same timeline that Hunter and Span were on and yes I do consider them to be above average. Sano and Rosario are 19 and 20 and yes I believe they will be good ballplayers as well. If none of these guys turn out to be good ballplayers, then let's throw in the towel for the next decade.

 

3. Other than the heat exhaustion that caused Span to come out of the ballgame on Saturday has he shown 1 concussion issue this season? If so, please point it out to me, 'cause I haven't seen it. And yes, the Nats are looking for help in CF and a leadoff hitter and he would fill the bill nicely for them.

 

4. Lombardozzi is currently playing in the outfield for the Nats, if they got Span, he would be a spare part. Casilla would take his place as a utility guy. Obviously your contention is that no prospect will ever make it to the majors so trade them for proven players. As they said in ET this is reality - not science fiction. Why would the Twins get rid of prospects who they will have control over for umpteen years at low salaries for players who will cost millions. You just don't have a payroll where all players are veterans at the same time, it makes no sense - especially not for the Twins who have always been frugal.

 

5. Where in my comment do I say that the Twins should trade Morneau to Washington or that the Nats have an interest in him - answer: I don't. And I don't think it's unreasonable that Span and Casilla might bring back some prospects who will be ready in 2014-15.

[Oxtung]

4 panned out (and a few more had some decent careers)... therefore, let's trade him for an overpriced pitcher on the downswing of his career... yeah, makes a lot of sense.

You have mischaracterized this entire thread. Most people who are ok with trading Sano, me included, want a young well thought of front end starter that has years of team control left in return (ie someone like David Price). Personally I think that would take a package of prospects not just Sano and I might be OK with that depending on who was involved.

[Mike Sixel]

David Price is under team control until 2016, that is not a 2 year rental. He is proven to be an effective MLB starting pitcher. I'm not sure how people dismiss trading a low A player for that as insane, stupid, mental, whatever you want to call it. It also isn't about "one pitcher". If you assume they'll sign one, that means they now have two legit starters, replacing the slop they've thrown up there this year. I'm not sure how people expect to build this team up, if they won't trade prospects for legit players, and they won't trade legit players for prospects...and we know they won't sign a bunch of FAs.

[etspaceman]

Why are you trying to rush success with the current roster? The Twins have so much young talent in their system; wouldn't it make sense to WAIT for that young talent to emerge in a wave and have a good chance of being competitive?

 

What do you think the Twins' chances are with David Price right now? Are they suddenly a playoff contender now that they have one competent pitcher? Do you think Sano's trade value will rise over time, therefore netting a better package in the future?

[Willihammer]

1. You're the idiot who wants to trade Sano at age 19 for an expensive starting pitcher for this team right now. As I said, an expensive starting pitcher will not turn this team around. They aren't a player or 2 away from contending. This would be throwing money out the door.

 

Ad hominems neither advance the thread nor foster a culture of intelligent debate.

 

To your point: The idea is that that Felix/Price would be willing to sign an extension owing to the fact that the Twins have already committed to winning now (see Mauer, Willingham, Doumit, and proverbially Liriano at 3/30).

2. Not sure what you consider to be above average, but Hicks is on the same timeline that Hunter and Span were on and yes I do consider them to be above average. Sano and Rosario are 19 and 20 and yes I believe they will be good ballplayers as well. If none of these guys turn out to be good ballplayers, then let's throw in the towel for the next decade.

Not sure what you mean by 19 and 20... Outfield prospects are the least desirable commodities. Proven MLB SPs are high value commodities.

3. Other than the heat exhaustion that caused Span to come out of the ballgame on Saturday has he shown 1 concussion issue this season? If so, please point it out to me, 'cause I haven't seen it. And yes, the Nats are looking for help in CF and a leadoff hitter and he would fill the bill nicely for them.

I hope you're right. I'm just trying to be, realistic.

4. Lombardozzi is currently playing in the outfield for the Nats, if they got Span, he would be a spare part. Casilla would take his place as a utility guy. Obviously your contention is that no prospect will ever make it to the majors so trade them for proven players. As they said in ET this is reality - not science fiction. Why would the Twins get rid of prospects who they will have control over for umpteen years at low salaries for players who will cost millions. You just don't have a payroll where all players are veterans at the same time, it makes no sense - especially not for the Twins who have always been frugal.

Have I psoposed a trade to the Nats? The Nats are not ideal trade partners and again, middle of the road outfielders are a low-value commidity.

5. Where in my comment do I say that the Twins should trade Morneau to Washington or that the Nats have an interest in him - answer: I don't. And I don't think it's unreasonable that Span and Casilla might bring back some prospects who will be ready in 2014-15.

The 2nd block of text in a row - I don't know what you're replying to here.

[Mike Sixel]

Price is under control for 4 more years, by then, pretty much every prospect with upside will be in the majors. By then, they will have hopefully signed a FA starter. By then, Morneau will be gone, and they'll likely use that money on a starter or a 2B/SS. This isn't about this year, nor is it about rushing.

 

Sure, his value could rise, it could also drop. He could be the best HR hitter ever, or he could barely make it in the majors. There is risk in every move. What I would not do, is suck last year, suck this year, suck next year, and suck the following year, all because I would not sign legit MLB starters, or trade prospects for proven veterans. If you really think they should give up until 2015 or so, why not trade everyone over 28 right now?

[FrodaddyG]

And, with this thread, Twins Daily has reached a new low...