Article: What's Next For Byron Buxton?

[tobi0040]

This was addressed at length in a recent thread. That 2011 Trout season was actually pretty encouraging - reasonable K/BB rates and great power, especially after his first 3 week stint (47 PA). Despite a low .247 BABIP, he was almost league average with the bat (87 wRC+) thanks to his power and K/BB rates alone, a far cry from the MLB production Buxton was providing.

 

Put another way, I'd be a lot less worried about Buxton if he had a 20% K rate and a .238 BABIP, even if it produced the same poor overall stat line. And he probably wouldn't be in AAA right now with that K rate, especially if it was trending in a better direction.

The only conclusion I can draw based on Buxton's time here is that his bat is not ready for the big leagues. And the unrealistic comps to Mike Trout are far fetched at best.

 

I think he will have a long MLB career, but my expectations have come down a bit.

 

He went 1-7 with 3 k's in his first game in AAA,  an extra inning game shortly after being demoted and flown across the country.   If you take out that game, I come up with a .275/.322/.379 line with a 25.8% k rate (.701 OPS).   The key for me is I can see Buxton staying in the low .700's, then tearing it up for a two week stretch and seeing his OPS jump to the mid .800's.  I just hope the Twins don't immediately promote him when that happens.

Edited May 3, 2016 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

Buxton needs to re-tool his swing. I'm sure someone had the bright idea that it would be beneficial to him to limit movement in the batters box, but his swing is just a right-handed Denard Span. There is no stride toward the pitcher and no leg kick.

 

He has the talent and I believe that he'll realize most of it, but he's not going to become a well rounded player being a Denard Span slap-hitting clone. I'm sure some in the organization see that as exactly what this club needs, and that's partly true, but they have to incorporate a more powerful swing or regardless of whether he starts making better contact, he'll never have a chance to live up to the expectations we had previously hoped for.

 

Plus, plenty of guys improve their timing by incorporating a leg kick, it isn't all about making harder contact.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The only conclusion I can draw based on Buxton's time here is that his bat is not ready for the big leagues. And the unrealistic comps to Mike Trout are far fetched at best.

I think he will have a long MLB career, but my expectations have come down a bit.

That's where I'm at too.  Far from saying he's a bust or a flop or any such thing, but he's got a lot of work ahead of him just to achieve a solid career, much less stardom.  (To say nothing about his projected health and consistency through his career.)

[gunnarthor]

 

 

But his MLB start is something else, though -- a larger sample of nearly 200 PA with insanely bad K and BB rates.  A perfectly normal BABIP of .308, respectable power with a .121 ISO, but a 48 wRC+.  It's obviously still early in his career, he may turn out great, but I'm not sure there's much precedent for an elite prospect starting this poorly in MLB and still turning out great.  Given that rocky start and his injury tendencies, his realistic upside might be a Carlos Gomez career path now, rather than the hoped-for Andrew McCutchen.  Again, not a bust, but something less than what many predicted.

Javier Baez was the first guy who jumped to my head. It's probably a bit early to give up on these guys' high ceilings.  Strike out rates that high are fairly new things so you won't historically see those numbers anyway.  

[kellyvance]

Twins should engage Rod Carew to work with him on hitting for contact. And maybe they should have his eyes checked, like Ricky Vaughn. 

[Twinsbar107]

 

Twins should engage Rod Carew to work with him on hitting for contact. And maybe they should have his eyes checked, like Ricky Vaughn. 

Don't they already do this with their yearly physical?  

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

 

Twins should engage Rod Carew to work with him on hitting for contact. And maybe they should have his eyes checked, like Ricky Vaughn. 

 

Yes, give him extra coaching at Rochester.  Let him stay there no matter what until at least the end of July and pick up ABs. 

[Dantes929]

 

Buxton needs to re-tool his swing. I'm sure someone had the bright idea that it would be beneficial to him to limit movement in the batters box, but his swing is just a right-handed Denard Span. There is no stride toward the pitcher and no leg kick.

 

He has the talent and I believe that he'll realize most of it, but he's not going to become a well rounded player being a Denard Span slap-hitting clone. I'm sure some in the organization see that as exactly what this club needs, and that's partly true, but they have to incorporate a more powerful swing or regardless of whether he starts making better contact, he'll never have a chance to live up to the expectations we had previously hoped for.

 

Plus, plenty of guys improve their timing by incorporating a leg kick, it isn't all about making harder contact.

You may be right but then again Molitor had a lot less movement than either Span or Buxton.     I never, ever had thoughts of Buxton turning into Mike Trout.    If he has the high .200's batting average and OBP over .350 like Span I would be just fine with that given his other assets.   Hoping for something closer to Molitor but anything between Span and Molitor will make me happy.     22 years old, missed a season to a concussion and may have similar recovery time to Mauer and Morneau.    Many wrote those two off as finished so I don't regard any predictions as worthy.      

[eLee612]

... People have been talking about Sano not loosing weight this offseason.  Much more disappointing Buxton hacking at balls in the dirt like it is 2015, which means he put zero work this offseason.  That's why one of these 2 is a major league player right now where the other is hitting like Drew Butera at AAA.

 

Can't tell if you're serious. Do you really think that the Twins, or any major league club for that matter, would have their top ranked prospects on the 'Netflix and Chill' off-season plan? As fans, we may not have that instant gratification of directly measurable results from October - February work, but that definitely doesn't mean he was sitting on his !!! eating cheetos for five months. I promise that no one is more frustrated by Buxton's struggle at the plate than Buxton himself.

[scottz]

 

Before I declare you a bust, please expand on the 65 mph heat.  How was the movement?

Everything seemed to tail down and away from my right handed swing. I beat a lot of balls into the ground, and when I tried to go with the pitch I hit what would have been weak pop ups down the right field line. My line drive rate was probably around 10%. I'm finished.

[dxpavelka]

Looks like I need to go to the archives and pull out everything I posted about Aaron Hicks from 2013 to May 2015.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Buck needs more minor league seasoning.  Period.  I think we forget that he basically lost all of 2014 due to injury as well.  And yeah, comparing him to Trout certainly does no one any favors.  I'd let him spend the rest of this season in the minors (unless he forces it) and simply learn to hit advanced pitching.  From the looks of it, he's got plenty to learn there.  I also wouldn't hand him the 2017 job like we handed it to him this year as well. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Javier Baez was the first guy who jumped to my head. It's probably a bit early to give up on these guys' high ceilings.  Strike out rates that high are fairly new things so you won't historically see those numbers anyway.  

Baez was striking out 30% of the time in AAA, so jumping to 41% in his first taste of MLB wasn't that strange.  He also drew more walks, showed more power, and was the victim of a well below average BABIP (.248, not unlike Trout 2011) in his first taste of MLB.

 

And of course, Baez hasn't achieved any sustained success yet either.  He's got a decent-looking 111 wRC+ since he came back last September, although it's propped up by a .431 BABIP.  Adjust that down to .350 and is he even a league average bat during that time?

 

Feel free to adjust the K criteria down proportional to league average, I'm still not sure you will find many/any star level players that began their careers as poorly as Buxton has at the plate.  Like I said, he's far from a bust or a flop or any such thing yet, but I don't see how you can't adjust his ceiling down a bit at this point (due to a combination of his epic struggles, plus the fact that his ceiling was set so high to begin with).

Edited May 3, 2016 by spycake

[savvyspy]

I am confident Buxton will figure things out with a little more seasoning. It takes time to adjust to the majors. Had the rest of the team not been equally as awful you could have probably hid him on the roster for a while longer.

 

Now with Mauer, Park, Sano, and even Dozier starting to warm up at the plate, Buxton's offensive output would have just been gravy and they could afford to keep him with the big club a while longer. 

 

I have no issue seeing him in the minors for a bit longer. He'll be back to give it a shot again soon.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Don't they already do this with their yearly physical?  

You're killing me, Smalls. 

[DJL44]

At what point do they send down Rosario? He's been almost as bad as Buxton and has lost his starting spot to Santana and Arcia. Rosario needs daily ABs as well.

Edited May 3, 2016 by DJL44

[Boom Boom]

At what point do they send down Rosario? He's been almost as bad as Buxton and has lost his starting spot to Santana and Arcia. Rosario needs daily ABs as well.

When it's been 10 days since Kepler was sent down, because I imagine that's who would be replacing Rosario.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Boom Boom

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

At what point do they send down Rosario? He's been almost as bad as Buxton and has lost his starting spot to Santana and Arcia. Rosario needs daily ABs as well.

Rosario's results are comparably bad to Buxton's, but the process isn't.  Rosario is a bit of a victim of a .203 BABIP.  His BB and K rates aren't good, of course, but they're basically the same as last year.

 

He probably does need to play every day, although it could probably come at the expense of Danny Santana (and hopefully Molitor would feel no great urge to bat Rosario leadoff).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When it's been 10 days since Kepler was sent down, because I imagine that's who would be replacing Rosario.

I can't imagine they'd send down Rosario because he's not getting enough playing time in Minnesota, and then call up Kepler to replace him.  (Although I guess they did let Kepler ride the pine once already this year, hopefully they at least let him get going at AAA before they do that again.)

[tobi0040]

 

Rosario's results are comparably bad to Buxton's, but the process isn't.  Rosario is a bit of a victim of a .203 BABIP.  His BB and K rates aren't good, of course, but they're basically the same as last year.

 

He probably does need to play every day, although it could probably come at the expense of Danny Santana (and hopefully Molitor would feel no great urge to bat Rosario leadoff).

 

That is the frustrating thing about Rosario.  He hasn't really taken a step forward in terms of plate discipline, he had good overall numbers last year but you knew he could take a huge step forward with a better sense of the strike zone.

 

I think his hands are his biggest asset and liability.  They allow him to get to pitches outside the zone. In turn, that has prevented him from understanding that just because he can weakly hit or foul off a ball way out of the zone, doens't mean he should.  Let the balls go by and get a better pitch to hit.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

Feel free to adjust the K criteria down proportional to league average, I'm still not sure you will find many/any star level players that began their careers as poorly as Buxton has at the plate.  Like I said, he's far from a bust or a flop or any such thing yet, but I don't see how you can't adjust his ceiling down a bit at this point (due to a combination of his epic struggles, plus the fact that his ceiling was set so high to begin with).

I guess that sort of depends on what you think he will be.  I suspect he's far from not panning out as the OP wrote.  I didn't think he'd be a consistent 8 WAR guy like Trout, either though.  I think he can and will be an all-star CFer who, in his best seasons, will be among the best players in baseball.  I'm not sure I'm willing to change that belief on his struggles at the ML level.  

[spanman2]

He needs AB'S...lots of them.  He needs to get some quality AB'S to get his confidence up.  You don't ascend to the Major League's as Buxton did without being a big time talent.  Like Yogi said "Baseball is ninety percent mental. The other half is physical."  He has the physical tools.  Time to work on what is between the ears. I truly think it is all mental with him.  WIN TWINS!!!

[Boom Boom]

I can't imagine they'd send down Rosario because he's not getting enough playing time in Minnesota, and then call up Kepler to replace him. (Although I guess they did let Kepler ride the pine once already this year, hopefully they at least let him get going at AAA before they do that again.)

That's the problem with having so many big time prospects on the 40 man.

 

In years past they could call up a Wilkin Ramirez or a Darin Mastroianni to sit in the bench. None of those types are on the 40 man roster, though.

[nytwinsfan]

Turns out the answer is hitting a bomb in his first AB of the game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Before I declare you a bust, please expand on the 65 mph heat. How was the movement?

Moyer-esque.

[Linus]

That's the problem with having so many big time prospects on the 40 man.

 

In years past they could call up a Wilkin Ramirez or a Darin Mastroianni to sit in the bench. None of those types are on the 40 man roster, though.

Huh? Too many good players?

[tobi0040]

Buxton went 2-3 with a HR, SB, and OF assist

[tobi0040]

Huh? Too many good players?

I don't think he is implying we should not have so many good players. But rather the downside of having a

Ton of unproven, talented players.

 

I have advocated a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 trade for a real good player partly for this reason. And also signing a good reliever or two, so we would not need so many relievers on the 40 man

[Kwak]

This forum would have exploded if Buxton was traded--even if for Trout!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's the problem with having so many big time prospects on the 40 man.

In years past they could call up a Wilkin Ramirez or a Darin Mastroianni to sit in the bench. None of those types are on the 40 man roster, though.

I don't know that our 40 man is really that full.  For example, given the depth at their positions, Pat Dean and Kennys Vargas have virtually no future with this club, yet still have 40-man roster spots.  And with Berrios added, there are no imminent prospect promotions that will require a 40 man spot either (and we may have a player on the 60 day DL by that time too).