Article: What's Next For Byron Buxton?

[Cody Christie]

Not all prospects pan out. That's just the nature of the game. Baseball can be a cruel and challenging journey but that's why so many people love this sport. The unknown is always around the game. On any given night, a player whose name you've never heard could make history and that history is deep-rooted and transcends generations.

 

Byron Buxton was supposed to make his own history. He was a can't miss prospect with the potential to follow in the footsteps of current All-Stars like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Things haven't gone exactly to plan for Buxton and the idea starts to trickle in that the Twins might have been a little too aggressive with their budding star.Minnesota's top prospect was demoted a little over a week ago. His Triple-A results have mirrored his big league results as he is striking out too often and not getting on base enough. There has been a little bit more power, three extra-base hits and a .608 OPS, but these numbers aren't going to make the Twins come calling in the immediate future.

 

Over the last two seasons at the big league level, Buxton has a total of 187 plate appearance and 174 at-bats with 15 extra-base hits. One of the most concerning issues has been his strikeout totals. He has 68 combined strikeouts so he struck out in 36.4% of his plate appearances. Speed is one of his biggest tools but he's only getting on base 23.9% of the time so it's hard to utilize this tool.

 

What's Next For Byron Buxton?

 

Buxton has plenty to prove in the minors before the Twins are willing to give him another shot at baseball's highest level. Buxton doesn't even have 100 at-bats at the Triple-A level under his belt so there is still things for him to focus on as he prepares for another big league opportunity.

 

Strikeouts

Out of players with a minimum of 40 plate appearances in 2016, Buxton's 49.0 K% is the highest in the big leagues. Since he has been in Rochester, he has improved his K% slightly to 32.4% but it's still much too high. Seeing better pitching on a daily basis has been tough for Buxton. He is going to have to learn how to make the appropriate adjustments. When he was drafted, there were some who questioned the level of competition he was facing in rural Georgia. For now, he needs to do a better job of recognizing pitches and working counts in his favor.

 

On-Base Percentage

Besides strikeouts, one of the biggest areas of concern has been Buxton's inability to get on base at a consistent clip. If he wants to be able to showcase his blazing speed, he needs to find a way to make more consistent contact and get on base. During the 2015 season at Double-A and Triple-A, Buxton hit over .300 and got on base 36.7% of the time. Those numbers would be great but with each movement up the ladder there have been new struggles . He's still almost five years younger than the competition in the International League but it can be frustrating to think that some of the best young players in the game were already finding big league success in their age-22 season.

 

Steals

Buxton stole a remarkable 55 bases in 2013 while being caught 19 times between Low-A and High-A. In his injury plagued 2014 season (31 games), he swiped six bases and was caught twice. Last season, Buxton played over 100 games and was caught stealing only five times but he was also limited to 24 steals. At baseball's highest levels, the pitchers have better pick-off moves and the catchers have stronger arms. Stealing bases is an art form and it could be one of the most valuable pieces of Buxton's game if he can find the right balance on the base paths.

 

Is Buxton a bust as a prospect? Only time will tell at this point. There is plenty of baseball left in his career and he will have other opportunities at the MLB level. He will need to make a significant reduction in his strikeout percentage while making more consistent contact and using his speed as a weapon on the bases.

 

This might sound like a lot but he's a young man with all the tools in the world. It's his turn to prove to the organization that he can be the player that all of the baseball world claims he should be.

 

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[gunnarthor]

It's time to relax.  Buxton just needs at-bats.  He's only had about 1200 total and only 500 or so at AA or above (even counting his ML at-bats).  He'll be fine.

[Pardon My Dinger]

*sigh*

[scottz]

Based on my performance at the 65 mph batting cage this weekend and the fact that I am 45 years old, I think we can declare that I am a bust.

 

Buxton has a little time still.

[theBOMisthebomb]

He wouldn't be the first 'can't miss' prospect to miss.

[mikelink45]

Take time off from the Buxton bashing.  Let him have a couple months to settle in at AAA.  Let him find his own comfort zone, and get him some coaching.  Young players have different levels of confidence and knowledge and they can be bolstered.  Technique can be tweaked and improved.  What Buxton has is speed, coordination, fielding skills and potential.  Those come from within.  

The question I often raise with the Twins is how do they coach the young player?  If a player has so much potential then hire him a specific coach who knows how to develop that potential and knows how to help adjust the mental barriers.  Hire a Rod Carew type player or a Torii Hunter to shadow Buxton until it all comes together.  The money spent now could be the difference to later in his career and to the Twins organization.

[twinssporto]

Buxton will be fine.  He just needs a little more time to develop.  

 

Practice makes perfect...(hopefully).

[HitInAPinch]

What's next for Buxton?  He needs developmental reps.  If it's anything less than finishing out the season in Rochester, I don't know if there actually is a plan.

[eLee612]

What's next for Buxton is the rest of May, the rest of the season, turning 23, taking a deep breath to remove some of the negativity and self doubt, and working with Torii / other mentors / the rest of his qualified coaching staff who believe in him. I can't speak for the rest of the fan base, but this one ---> still believes in him too! 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

What's now getting old are the "Buxton will be fine" lines being dropped by posters that have no idea. There have been plenty of can't miss prospects that have busted. Buxton is no different. There is no guarantee either way at this point.

 

IMO, I always go back to his incredible 2013 minor league season.

 

.334/.424/.520, 12 HR, 18 3B, 19 2B, 109 R, 77 RBI, 55 SB, 76 BB

 

I don't see any way that a bust could put up those otherworldly numbers, no matter the level. But I could see an MLB-average player have a big year like that then settling into his norm. Injuries certainly have hurt his rise. And the rush job by the FO did him no favors.

 

Basically, the book is still out.

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Based on my performance at the 65 mph batting cage this weekend and the fact that I am 45 years old, I think we can declare that I am a bust.

 

Buxton has a little time still.

 

Before I declare you a bust, please expand on the 65 mph heat.  How was the movement?

[tobi0040]

 

It's time to relax.  Buxton just needs at-bats.  He's only had about 1200 total and only 500 or so at AA or above (even counting his ML at-bats).  He'll be fine.

 

Not to mention, he had a concussion and about four more injuries that make his 1,200 AB's in the minors 300, then a break, 150, then a break, etc.

 

What he needs to do to succeed is stay healthy, make more contact and hit better with two strikes. 

 

His defense is going to be worth 2-3 wins in center.  And his speed will always bolster his OPS quite a bit.  Look at the 2013 stat line above, 12 HR, 18 2B, and 19 3B.  That is flat out speed. You can't teach it.  He just needs to spray the ball around a bit and run.

[Vanimal46]

Anybody else feel that Buxton was a product of Twins marketing? Don't get me wrong, he's a very "toolsy" player and can still work out (hopefully). However, back in 2012-2014 when this organization had virtually no hope to sell, even casual fans heard the pitch of "Just wait until Buxton and Sano make it to the big leagues! When that happens, nothing's going to stop us now!" 

I can't remember a prospect hyped that much since Joe Mauer... It also didn't help that he was the #1 or #2 rated prospect in the MLB for 3 years running. We've gotten prospect fatigue with Buxton, and are now frustrated by the fact that he's not ready to be a star on this team. 

[Thrylos]

Buxton has a fatal flaw that first got exposed in the Fall League in 2013:  He cannot hit breaking balls.  At any level.  When the book was out, other than half season in Chattanooga and a week and a half in Rochester, he has been strikeout prone.   

 

The Twins have to work with him to fix that.  They should have him sit with his bat on his shoulder and look at pitches until the count in 3-2 and then have him take anything that spins like a breaking ball.  He has to recognize pitches better.  

 

People have been talking about Sano not loosing weight this offseason.  Much more disappointing Buxton hacking at balls in the dirt like it is 2015, which means he put zero work this offseason.  That's why one of these 2 is a major league player right now where the other is hitting like Drew Butera at AAA.

 

Maybe he is just adverse to work or does not get it or something, and if that is the case the Twins should sell as long as he still has some value...

[spinowner]

This is not the NFL. This is not the NBA. This is not the NHL. 22-year-olds often perform at a high level in those leagues. 22-year-olds only occasionally perform at a high level in MLB. Torii Hunter didn't become a good major league player until age 25. Perspective, people.

Edited May 3, 2016 by spinowner

[HitInAPinch]

 

Buxton has a fatal flaw that first got exposed in the Fall League in 2013:  He cannot hit breaking balls.  At any level.  When the book was out, other than half season in Chattanooga and a week and a half in Rochester, he has been strikeout prone.   

 

The Twins have to work with him to fix that.  They should have him sit with his bat on his shoulder and look at pitches until the count in 3-2 and then have him take anything that spins like a breaking ball.  He has to recognize pitches better.  

 

People have been talking about Sano not loosing weight this offseason.  Much more disappointing Buxton hacking at balls in the dirt like it is 2015, which means he put zero work this offseason.  That's why one of these 2 is a major league player right now where the other is hitting like Drew Butera at AAA.

 

Maybe he is just adverse to work or does not get it or something, and if that is the case the Twins should sell as long as he still has some value...

I'll say this:  the poor kid was over-hyped.   

 

Buxton has had some pretty messed up mechanics and being physically gifted, he can put up stats like his 2013 season.  But that was A - Ball. 

 

His mechanics are much better, but the pattern hasn't change:  Strike 1, strike 2 and everything else is down and way until you get Buxton to bite.

[hybridbear]

I'd hate to see him turn into another Carlos Gomez or David Ortiz, a player that the Twins gave up on for nothing before becoming a star.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

I'd hate to see him turn into another Carlos Gomez or David Ortiz, a player that the Twins gave up on for nothing before becoming a star.

Buxton's floor is a slightly below average hitting gold glove outfielder. He's not going anywhere, anytime soon. Unlike Gomez and Ortiz, all the stuff I've seen is that he's a humble kid who takes instruction. Let him get kicked around at AAA and let's see what he's doing by July. 

 

Sometimes you have to fail to see how to succeed (or some other motivational speech like that).

 

My call: .280 average, 10-15 homers, and gold glove caliber defense in two years (2018 all the way.......................................................

[laloesch]

 

Take time off from the Buxton bashing.  Let him have a couple months to settle in at AAA.  Let him find his own comfort zone, and get him some coaching.  Young players have different levels of confidence and knowledge and they can be bolstered.  Technique can be tweaked and improved.  What Buxton has is speed, coordination, fielding skills and potential.  Those come from within.  

The question I often raise with the Twins is how do they coach the young player?  If a player has so much potential then hire him a specific coach who knows how to develop that potential and knows how to help adjust the mental barriers.  Hire a Rod Carew type player or a Torii Hunter to shadow Buxton until it all comes together.  The money spent now could be the difference to later in his career and to the Twins organization.

 

I wouldn't mind him spending the rest of the year in AAA with a possible fall callup.  Same with Rosario.  Both these kids could use some more seasoning down on the farm.

[gunnarthor]

I have to say, i do find it annoying how many Buxton is a bust threads that have shown up on TD.  After we drafted him, he started something like 1-30 in rookie ball and there were threads saying "we should have drafted Appel or Zunino. He's a bust."  He becomes the best prospect in baseball, has his 2014 season ruined by fluke injuries and comes back and hits AA and AAA pitching to a tune of .305/.367/.500 despite missing nearly a year and facing the hardest jump in the minors.  And he struggles in his first taste of the majors, and we get the "he's a bust" threads again.  

 

He's going to be great.  Relax.

[SirLoin]

Everyone who is concerned about Buxton just look at Mike Trout's 2011 season:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml

 

Maybe Buxton won't be Trout, but he's only 22.  He's got time....Let's give him some time to develop at AAA.  

[tobi0040]

 

I'd hate to see him turn into another Carlos Gomez or David Ortiz, a player that the Twins gave up on for nothing before becoming a star.

 

I agree with the sentiment of the post.  But I don't know that we neccesarily gave up on Gomez, or that he can be considered a star. 

 

JJ Hardy has Gomez in career WAR 34 to 24.  JJ is three years older, but he had an advantage through Gomez's age as well.

 

Gomez has 24 career WAR across about 8.5 seasons.  But he had 14 WAR between 2013 and 2014. His complete body of work is not in the star range, IMO. 

 

He would be a cautionary tale though, we rushed him as well and it basically took him 4.5 years to catch on.   Maybe that curve could have been expedited if he had more time in the minors to work through things, less pressure as the face of the Johan trade, etc.

[Halsey Hall]

 

It's time to relax.  Buxton just needs at-bats.  He's only had about 1200 total and only 500 or so at AA or above (even counting his ML at-bats).  He'll be fine.

Relax? Hell yes. Just let it go. Buxton was way over hyped to begin with. He's just another young player in the minor leagues struggling to improve his game. If you want to get worked up over something, pick another player, any player, like Levi Michael or someone. As someone else mentioned, "he'll be fine" is over used. I've never been on his bandwagon and the only time I haven't been relaxed was when he was in the majors. Now he's where he belongs and I'll read about him in the minor league forum like the rest of the players down there. He will be what he will be. Relax.

[Mike Sixel]

While some hate the threads, some hate being told how to feel.....

 

Buxton is not a product of marketing.....he was always considered a top pick. I think he could use some coaching, frankly.

[DJL44]

 

Maybe he is just adverse to work or does not get it or something, and if that is the case the Twins should sell as long as he still has some value...

 

I really hate when people start questioning the work ethic of a 22 year old who has already made it to the major leagues. He's miles ahead of nearly all of his peers.

 

Do you know how hard it is to hit major league breaking balls? He's had about 550 plate appearances at AA and above. He needs more at-bats.

[Marzen2016]

 

I really hate when people start questioning the work ethic of a 22 year old who has already made it to the major leagues. He's miles ahead of nearly all of his peers.

 

Do you know how hard it is to hit major league breaking balls? He's had about 550 plate appearances at AA and above. He needs more at-bats.

 

Couldn't agree more!  We want everyone to deliver right away, so he is not Carlos Correa at this point.  Give him 2 years and he will be the best player in that class.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I have to say, i do find it annoying how many Buxton is a bust threads that have shown up on TD.  After we drafted him, he started something like 1-30 in rookie ball and there were threads saying "we should have drafted Appel or Zunino. He's a bust."  He becomes the best prospect in baseball, has his 2014 season ruined by fluke injuries and comes back and hits AA and AAA pitching to a tune of .305/.367/.500 despite missing nearly a year and facing the hardest jump in the minors.  And he struggles in his first taste of the majors, and we get the "he's a bust" threads again.  

 

He's going to be great.  Relax.

To be fair, the big recent "Buxton is a flop" thread was actually an error of semantics, really -- the thread starter actually said "My prediction is that he will just be around league average at the plate but stellar in the field" which is quite different than a "flop" to most folks, but it is less than the star predictions that have been made about him over the past few years.

 

Buxton's 1-30 start in rookie ball was just that -- 30 AB, with a modest K rate but an insanely low BABIP of .048.  Yes, it was incredibly premature for anyone to be worried about that, given the sample size and BABIP weirdness.

 

But his MLB start is something else, though -- a larger sample of nearly 200 PA with insanely bad K and BB rates.  A perfectly normal BABIP of .308, respectable power with a .121 ISO, but a 48 wRC+.  It's obviously still early in his career, he may turn out great, but I'm not sure there's much precedent for an elite prospect starting this poorly in MLB and still turning out great.  Given that rocky start and his injury tendencies, his realistic upside might be a Carlos Gomez career path now, rather than the hoped-for Andrew McCutchen.  Again, not a bust, but something less than what many predicted.

[Vanimal46]

 

While some hate the threads, some hate being told how to feel.....

Buxton is not a product of marketing.....he was always considered a top pick. I think he could use some coaching, frankly.

Yeah maybe he's not a product of marketing since he was highly touted even before the draft. I just don't know if the Twins did him any favors by pinning the hopes of an entire organization on him and Sano... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Everyone who is concerned about Buxton just look at Mike Trout's 2011 season:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml

 

Maybe Buxton won't be Trout, but he's only 22.  He's got time....Let's give him some time to develop at AAA.  

This was addressed at length in a recent thread.  That 2011 Trout season was actually pretty encouraging - reasonable K/BB rates and great power, especially after his first 3 week stint (47 PA).  Despite a low .247 BABIP, he was almost league average with the bat (87 wRC+) thanks to his power and K/BB rates alone, a far cry from the MLB production Buxton was providing.

 

Put another way, I'd be a lot less worried about Buxton if he had a 20% K rate and a .238 BABIP, even if it produced the same poor overall stat line.  And he probably wouldn't be in AAA right now with that K rate, especially if it was trending in a better direction.

[Loosey]

I would like to see him play out the season in Rochester no matter how well he does.  If he hits .400 the rest of the year in Rochester keep him down there to really get his confidence up and know for sure in his own head he is ready for the jump.  I question whether he himself had some self doubt about whether he was ready to be a major leaguer once he started to see what the pitchers could do to a baseball.  He essentially has player 3 weeks above AAA baseball, and was very good in AA.  Let him figure out as long as it takes in AAA.  Once he learns to hit a breaking ball I think/hope he will be fine.